Katrina Hann: Ageing


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Experian's Katrina Hann delivers a presentation to the Association of Regional Observatories network event which looked at the environmental limits on returning to economic growth. This event took place in Birmingham on Wednesday 27th January 2010.

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Katrina Hann: Ageing

  1. 1. Demographic Change: Ageing Futures Katrina Hann, Research Manager – Economic Policy
  2. 2. Our session this afternoon <ul><li>The ageing of society? </li></ul><ul><li>Our Approach </li></ul><ul><li>Making sense of the regional picture </li></ul><ul><li>What are the opportunities and challenges? </li></ul><ul><li>Age proofing the IRS </li></ul><ul><li>Taking Action </li></ul><ul><li>Age matters! </li></ul>
  3. 3. The Ageing of society? <ul><li>Thomas Malthus predicted that human population growth and resource consumption were incompatible with the limits of a finite planet </li></ul><ul><li>BUT there is evidence now that instead of over population it is underpopulation that will be the world’s biggest problem, </li></ul><ul><li>The UN’s latest population projection is 40 million lower than it was in 2006 Revision – standing at 9.15 billion in 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>Plummeting fertility rates are the root cause of this projected decline and the ageing of the population is an irreversible trend . </li></ul><ul><li>Policymakers will be impacted at every level of government and age proofing future policy will be essential! </li></ul>
  4. 4. Our Approach <ul><li>Experian have undertaken research in the North West and Yorkshire & Humber: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Detailed literature review </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic Modelling and data analysis: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>- Economic trends: Age dependency / employment / skills / spending patterns </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>- Social trends: Life expectancy / socio-economic classification / ethnicity & LGBT / service provision </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>- Official and proprietary data sources used </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stakeholder Consultations with key policy makers in the regions </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Making sense of the regional picture – North West <ul><li>To date, in NW as a whole population ageing has been fairly slight. </li></ul>
  6. 6. Making sense of the regional picture – North West <ul><li>BUT , as the ‘baby boom’ generation reaches retirement age – aged dependency ratios will soar. </li></ul><ul><li>By 2031 the ratio of pensionable age to working age people will increase to above 0.45 </li></ul>
  7. 7. Making sense of the regional picture – North West There are stark differences in ageing sub-regionally , with the ageing of the population most severe in the more rural/coastal parts of Cumbria and Cheshire. In Cumbria aged dependency ratios are forecast to increase from 0.38 in 2006 to 0.7 in 2032. Proposed changes to the SPA should to some extent mitigate this effect
  8. 8. Making sense of the regional picture – Yorkshire & Humber <ul><li>There is a similar story in Yorkshire & Humber to North West. </li></ul><ul><li>Projections for Yorkshire and the Humber suggest there will be more than a million pensioners (60+ for women, and 65+ for men) by 2011, and 1.14 million by 2021 </li></ul>
  9. 9. Making sense of the regional picture – Yorkshire & Humber <ul><li>Socio-demographic analysis reveals that the needs and types of these older people will vary starkly. </li></ul><ul><li>Older cohort aged 50-100+ </li></ul><ul><li>Scarborough - older people with lowest income levels are concentrated around the town centre </li></ul>Growing numbers of older people will be disproportionately located in the more rural north and east of the region
  10. 10. Making sense of the regional picture – Yorkshire & Humber <ul><li>Urban areas will be home to the greatest increases in older BME people between 2010 and 2030 </li></ul><ul><li>Bradford’s population of BME people over 50 will grow by more than 26,000 to a total of over 40,000 </li></ul><ul><li>It is vital that policy makers and spatial planners recognise the different needs of this group. </li></ul>In the larger black and minority ethnic communities the older population will grow rapidly from its currently low number
  11. 11. Making sense of the regional picture – Yorkshire & Humber <ul><li>Older people account for 16% of workers in the region and by 2020 this figure will rise to 21% </li></ul><ul><li>However in terms of participation rates, the region still lags behind UK </li></ul><ul><li>Older people have a higher incidence of self employment compared to population as a whole. </li></ul><ul><li>The relationship between skills and the workforce is not as clear – but it is evident that those with the highest qualifications are more likely to remain in the labour force </li></ul>
  12. 12. What are the opportunities and challenges? <ul><li>Economy & Skills is clearly a key area in which there will be opportunities and challenges </li></ul><ul><li>Valuable contribution through paid and unpaid work - volunteers and carers </li></ul><ul><li>Lot to offer in terms of Entrepreneurial activities </li></ul><ul><li>Qualities of older workers – lower absenteeism / loyalty </li></ul><ul><li>Continued age discrimination by employers – recession </li></ul><ul><li>Need to update skills profile of older workers </li></ul><ul><li>Substantial impact on public sector finances – pension costs / healthcare costs. </li></ul>Economy and skills
  13. 13. What are the opportunities and challenges? <ul><li>BUT an ageing population will cut across all areas of policy </li></ul><ul><li>High aspirations for housing </li></ul><ul><li>Challenge to ensure that the right mix is available - rural / urban areas </li></ul><ul><li>Energy efficient and adapted homes suitable for older people </li></ul><ul><li>Retirement communities with care on hand for those who need it </li></ul>Housing <ul><li>‘ waste not want not attitude’ of older generation </li></ul><ul><li>May be less concerned about climate change </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon footprints vary by age: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>‘ Baby boomers’ – car usage </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Oldest people – heating bills </li></ul></ul>Climate change & environmental resources
  14. 14. What are the opportunities and challenges? <ul><li>Opportunity for spatial planners to design fit for purpose spaces for older people – close access to GP surgeries / shops </li></ul><ul><li>Catering for the wide range of older groups – BME groups </li></ul><ul><li>Accessibility – effective public transport as a life line particularly in rural areas </li></ul>Public Service Provision <ul><li>Adequate healthcare provision – fit for purpose </li></ul><ul><li>Investment in healthcare technologies </li></ul><ul><li>investment in low level preventative measures </li></ul>Quality of life
  15. 15. Age Proofing the IRS <ul><li>There is a real opportunity to address some of the challenges and mitigate against the opportunities in IRS </li></ul><ul><li>Specific policy response : Boosting participation rates in older people </li></ul><ul><ul><li>self employment & flexible working </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Vocational skills </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>removing barriers to older people entering / remaining in workforce </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Broader remit : Minimising older people’s impact on the environment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Home insulation programmes & energy efficiency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Public transport improvements </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. Taking Action Getting older people into work <ul><li>Older Workers Employment Network </li></ul><ul><li>The project aims to support mature workers who are seeking employment in the Humber sub-region. </li></ul><ul><li>OWEN aims to: </li></ul><ul><li>support employed and unemployed older workers to develop skills and confidence through a range of information, advice and support (IAS) and life/work skills training workshops; </li></ul><ul><li>to help local employers realise the positive benefits of employing older workers; and </li></ul><ul><li>to develop a recruitment and training toolkit and information pack for employers </li></ul><ul><li>The target group is people over the age of 45. Intended beneficiaries are jobseekers with low basic skills, labour market returnees, and the unemployed. </li></ul>Enhancing housing stock Hartrigg Oaks Hartrigg Oaks, is the UK's first Continuing Care Retirement Community. It is intended to support an active and independent retirement by offering high quality accommodation and communal facilities, alongside extensive care and support facilities. Services are provided using a financial model unique in the UK, pooling residents' fees to create a shared resource to fund care and support. The site consists of 152 spacious one and two bedroom bungalows and 42 en-suite bed sitting rooms within The Oaks Care Centre. The target group is people over 60, who are keen to live in a vibrant community with healthcare on hand that can be delivered in a residents own home or in The Oaks Care Centre.
  17. 17. Taking Action Tailoring public services Older People’s Champions Launched as part of the National Service Framework for Older People in 2001 - major Central Government plan setting out the priorities and expected standards in social and health care for older people. voluntary but high profile role with a wide ranging remit. Job is to galvanize the views of older people and represent these views at the highest levels of local decision making. They have a role in ensuring older people have access to information about local services and plans for older people and to root out age discrimination in access to treatment and services. Older people’s champions are operating across the North West with great success. Enhancing public transport <ul><li>Sheffield Community Transport (SCT) </li></ul><ul><li>Social enterprise with charitable status. </li></ul><ul><li>Provides a range of transport related services to the people of Sheffield (South Yorkshire, U.K.) since 1988. </li></ul><ul><li>Aspiration is to play a key role in creating a truly inclusive environment where everyone, residents and visitors alike, can participate in all the many activities and facilities available now and in the future. </li></ul><ul><li>The enterprise operates a number of local bus services across the city including: </li></ul><ul><li>shopper bus enabling older people to visit shops, library or bank, </li></ul><ul><li>city ride for people who have difficulties using public transport. </li></ul>
  18. 18. Age matters! <ul><li>The ageing of population is an irreversible trend.. </li></ul><ul><li>It is much more complicated than previously thought: spatial, social, Economic, and </li></ul><ul><li>Will impact on all areas of policy – environmental through to economic </li></ul><ul><li>As such , it is essential that Policy makers at all levels of government understand the challenges and opportunities of demographic change </li></ul><ul><li>Age proofing future policy will be essential! </li></ul>
  19. 19. Questions? Thoughts? Comments? <ul><li>What is your experience of the challenges and opportunities of an ageing population in your local area? </li></ul><ul><li>What Steps have you taken to age proof your strategies and policies? </li></ul><ul><li>Have you implemented any innovative schemes to address some of the challenges raised? </li></ul>
  20. 20. Questions? Thoughts? Comments? Contact Katrina Hann Research Manager – Economic Policy T: (0207) 746 8286 M: (07970) 364756 [email_address]