John Hollis: Migration in London

Recent Migration Trends 27 January 2010 ARO Birmingham

Outline
Internal UK Migration
Impact of Recession
International Migration
Trends
NHS Flag 4
NINo
ONS Developments in Data
Discussion Points

Inter-UK Migration (000s)

Inter-Regional Flows (000s): March 2009

Largest Inter-Regional Flows (000s): March 2009

London: Migration within UK

London: Migration within UK
Year to March 2009:
From Rest of UK 177.9k
To Rest of UK 216.7k
Net -38.8k
Outflow: Lowest since 1997
50k decline since June 2004
34k decline since Sept 2007
Inflow: Highest since the system was established in 1984
Net loss: Lowest for 20 years
Reduced by 46k since Sept 2007
48k to GOSE & GOER

London: Migration with E&SE

Percentage Change in flows: June 2007 to March 2009

London: UK Migration by Age: 2007 Q2

London: UK Migration by Age: 2009 Q1

Change in Migration by Age: London: 2007 Q2 to 2009 Q1

Internal Migration Recession Impacts
London’s reception classes bursting at seams
Increased population growth
More older people
Increasing household sizes – (overcrowding?)
More private renting

A8 Migration: UK

International Migration: London

International Flows: London % UK

International Migration by Source
London 2007-08:
(thousands) In Out Net
IPS 137 92 45
Eire 2 4 -2
Asylum 8 3 5
Switchers 10 3 8
Total 156 101 55

UK Asylum Applicants

Supported Asylum Seekers
June 2009
Subsistence Only
London 3.430
UK 5,120
Accommodation
London 1,205
UK 25,535

NHS Flag 4

National Insurance: UK & London

Internal Migration: Issues
Young single adult males delay in re-registering with GPs
Student areas not accurately credited/debited
Delayed GP re-registration straddling Census – registered in A, moves to B does not re-register and is resident at time of Census, moves to C and re-registers. Move from A to C but MYE still has ‘person’ resident in B.
Not linked up with international inflows
International ‘move’ to A, moves on and first registers in B, moves and re-registers in C. Move from B to C but still ’resident’ in A.

ONS Revisions – Students
HESA data: Students at term-time address
Migration of first year students using aggregate HESA data where flows are greater than those from GP data
Student moves on completion of study
HESA Destination Survey
Will improve the gap due to late re-registration
More post- study graduates move to London
Does not account for students moving during course

International Migration Issues
IPS has been focused on tourism and national budget with a migration add-on
IPS has had relatively small sample (3k immigrants and 1k emigrants per annum)
IPS uses intentions to remain for 12 months or more – UN definition
IPS gets a first address – probably short-term – central city tendency
Little supporting data on outflows
IPS now a larger, more focused, migration survey

ONS Revisions – Immigrants
Model-based approach
Using admin data (NINo, Flag 4) and socio-economic data to distribute IPS migrants to LAs
Not used at regional level
Unsuitable for London
Problem with NMGi in London

NMGi in London

New Migrant Databank
Part of Leeds University ESRC UPTAP project.
New Migrant Databank first suggested in Leeds work for GLA
Already uses HESA/NINo/Flag 4 to break TIM down to regions:
London +20k +12%
West Midlands +11k +33%
North West +4k +8%
East -14k -23%
Yorks and Humber -10k -21%
South West -8k -19%
South East -4k -4%

Emigrants
Refined model-based probability estimation method.
Very significant impacts
Problems:
Lack of true covariates (ie no equivalent to NINo/Flag4)
The methodology is still somewhat opaque – Black Box.
Are the rare households without exclusive bath/WC so critical to international outflows?

Discussion Points
How long may the recession-based changes in patterns persist?
What are the short/medium term impacts of these changes around the regions?
Will post-recession international migration flows return to recent levels and patterns (ie eastern European)?
What do people think about the impacts of the recent ONS consultation on student and international migration?
Which way for asylum?

[email_address]
020 7984 4604

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John Hollis: Migration in London

by Andy Dunne on Feb 02, 2010

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