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Eleanor Field: What Might Low Growth Mean for the South West?

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Eleanor Field (South West RDA / South West Observatory) delivers a presentation to the Association of Regional Observatories network event in Birmingham on Wednesday 27th January 2010.

Eleanor Field (South West RDA / South West Observatory) delivers a presentation to the Association of Regional Observatories network event in Birmingham on Wednesday 27th January 2010.

Published in: Business

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  • Transcript

    • 1. Growth, low growth and environmental limits Eleanor Field 27 th Jan 2010
    • 2. Introduction
      • ‘ Growth within environmental limits’?
      • Arguments for low growth
      • Modelling - what does low growth mean for the South West?
    • 3. Growth within environmental limits
      • The South West Debates
      • Defining environmental limits
      • “ the concept of environmental limits is based on the notion of the threshold or a number of thresholds tha cannot be surpassed. From a human perspective an environmental limit may be defined as the point past which the flow of services which are essential to support well-being and ultimately human life are put at risk” (The New Economics Foundation, 2008)
    • 4. Progress towards growth within environmental limits
      • Incremental vs radical change in business models
      • Public attitudes
      • Barriers to env sustainable business practice (NEF,2008)
      • Enforceable limits
      • Economic consequences (EA, 2008)
    • 5. Is it enough?
      • ‘ Prosperity without growth’
      • Prosperity and material wealth
      • Economic stability
      • ‘ Myth of decoupling’ – Environmental limits
      • Is low growth an alternative?
    • 6. What might low growth mean for SWE?
      • Scenario modelling using the SW regional accounts model
      • Aims of the work
    • 7. Introduction
      • ‘ Growth within environmental limits’?
      • Arguments for low growth
      • Modelling - what does low growth mean for the South West?
    • 8. South West Growth
        • 1989-2006 trend growth (GVA) 2.9% a year
        • 1.1% of growth in labour
        • 1.8% growth in labour productivity (GVA per FTE)
        • Baseline growth 2.5% and scenario of 1.5%.
    • 9. Scenarios Mechanism Geographical scope SW only All UK Global 1. Imposed Environmental Resource Constraints    Technological Growth Slowdown    2. Behavioural Changes Savings/Consumptions Behaviour    Labour Supply Behaviour   
    • 10. Environmental Resource Constraints
    • 11. Environmental Resource Constraints
    • 12. The other scenarios
        • Slower technology growth
        • Assumption that slow down occurs in all sectors
        • Initial shock – 1.5% growth leads to 1.3% growth
        • Reduction in Labour supply
        • Output effects tend to be in labour-intensive activities.
        • SW only – increase in in-migration
        • Impact partially mitigated by increase in real wages
    • 13. So what for environmental limits
    • 14. Final thoughts
      • Our future is completely intertwined with everyone else’s.
      • Low growth can come from a variety of different places – what causes it determine its impact
      • Better models and data
    • 15. Enter image title here