Eleanor Field: What Might Low Growth Mean for the South West?

Growth, low growth and environmental limits Eleanor Field 27 th Jan 2010

Introduction
‘ Growth within environmental limits’?
Arguments for low growth
Modelling - what does low growth mean for the South West?

Growth within environmental limits
The South West Debates
Defining environmental limits
“ the concept of environmental limits is based on the notion of the threshold or a number of thresholds tha cannot be surpassed. From a human perspective an environmental limit may be defined as the point past which the flow of services which are essential to support well-being and ultimately human life are put at risk” (The New Economics Foundation, 2008)

Progress towards growth within environmental limits
Incremental vs radical change in business models
Public attitudes
Barriers to env sustainable business practice (NEF,2008)
Enforceable limits
Economic consequences (EA, 2008)

Is it enough?
‘ Prosperity without growth’
Prosperity and material wealth
Economic stability
‘ Myth of decoupling’ – Environmental limits
Is low growth an alternative?

What might low growth mean for SWE?
Scenario modelling using the SW regional accounts model
Aims of the work

Introduction
‘ Growth within environmental limits’?
Arguments for low growth
Modelling - what does low growth mean for the South West?

South West Growth
1989-2006 trend growth (GVA) 2.9% a year
1.1% of growth in labour
1.8% growth in labour productivity (GVA per FTE)
Baseline growth 2.5% and scenario of 1.5%.

Scenarios Mechanism Geographical scope SW only All UK Global 1. Imposed Environmental Resource Constraints    Technological Growth Slowdown    2. Behavioural Changes Savings/Consumptions Behaviour    Labour Supply Behaviour   

Environmental Resource Constraints

The other scenarios
Slower technology growth
Assumption that slow down occurs in all sectors
Initial shock – 1.5% growth leads to 1.3% growth
Reduction in Labour supply
Output effects tend to be in labour-intensive activities.
SW only – increase in in-migration
Impact partially mitigated by increase in real wages

So what for environmental limits

Final thoughts
Our future is completely intertwined with everyone else’s.
Low growth can come from a variety of different places – what causes it determine its impact
Better models and data

Enter image title here

http://www.researchobservatories.org.uk	27
http://www.regionalobservatories.org.uk	9
https://www.mturk.com	1
http://www.slideshare.net	1

Eleanor Field: What Might Low Growth Mean for the South West?

by Andy Dunne on Feb 02, 2010

Accessibility

Categories

Tags

Upload Details

Usage Rights

4 Embeds 38

Statistics

Eleanor Field: What Might Low Growth Mean for the South West? — Presentation Transcript