India’s Urban Transformation:        iihsThe Way ForwardSymbiosis, Pune     4th March 2013Aromar Reviarevi@iihs.co.in ; @A...
The challenge of contemporary Indian cities:integration of the pre-colonial, colonial, ‘modern’ & informal
Yamuna Pushta: c. 2003
Yamuna Pushta demolitions: Feb-May 2004
Yamuna Pushta Forced Evictions: Feb – May 2004                    2004                    2011
A 30+ year process of state-led eviction, demolition and exclusion                                                        ...
Systematic processes of eviction and & Resettlement Colonies (1990-2008)  Delhi: Demolished Settlements regularisation def...
Our future hinges on the state of Indian        cities
Urban Development: catalysing five national outcomes by the 2030s Reduced Poverty and Inequality    Inclusive Economic Gro...
A long view of History
Relative National Share of Global Economic Output (1500 to 2050ACE)                             35%                       ...
Urbanisation: a key growth & economic development driver
New Geographies = New 21st century Histories    Early- mid 21st century       16-18th century                             ...
The Challenge of the 21st century Sustainability Transition           Present consumption requires ~2.0 worlds           2...
Himalayan Glacial melt (1921-2009)
Future History - Sustainability Transitions: 2005                                                            ‘Sustainable...
China’s urbanisation: 1992-2012
Deng’s tour of the Southern provinces: Feb 1992
China’s urbanisation: the view from Space..
China: Feb 1992
China: Feb 2000
China: Feb 2008
Why is China’s urbanisation important?1. It is the largest urbanisation in human history:   the addition of ~300 million p...
India’s urbanisation: the view across time..
Major Powers of the Indian Subcontinent       (500 BCE to 2010 ACE) Maurya      Gupta       Hoysala   Tuluva Mughal British
India Urban Dynamics: 1951-2031
1951                                                   Tibet                         W. Pakistan                          ...
India 1951• Only 5 cities with a population > 1m and 41 with > 0.1m• Much of India lived in 0.56 m villages
1961                                                                 800                                      Population (...
1971                                                                   800                                        Populati...
1981                                                                          800                                         ...
1991                                                                                     800                              ...
2001                                                                                            800                       ...
2011                                                                                         800                          ...
India 2011• 3 cities with a population > 10 m and• 53 cities with > 1m• 833 m live in 0.64 m villages• 377 m live in ~ 8,0...
2031                                                                                             800                      ...
India 2031• 6 cities with a population > 10 m and > 70 with > 1m• How many Indians will live in medium & small towns?• The...
India’s urbanisation: the view from Space..
Feb 1992
Feb 2008
India: 13 Nov 2012
Spatial Concentration of Economic          Activity: 2005
District agriculturaloutput distribution: 2005
District Manufacturingoutput distribution: 2005
Top 100 Cities : 2011        Land      Land          0.24%Population   Population               16%      Output    Output ...
Distribution of India’s Population by Settlement Size : 1951-2011                                     100%              1%...
Urban Growth & Sprawl: 1991-2011
Delhi : 19928.7 million              8.7 million              1992
Delhi : 200013.7 million               13.7 million               2000               8.7 million               1992
Delhi : 201116.3 million               16.3 million               2011               13.7 million               2000      ...
Bangalore : 19923.4 million              3.4 million              1992
Bangalore : 20015.7 million              5.7 million              2001              3.4 million              1992
Bangalore : 20098.5 million              8.5 million              2009              5.7 million              2001         ...
Chandigarh : 19890.6 million              0.6 million              1989
Chandigarh : 20000.8 million              0.8 million              2000              0.6 million              1989
Chandigarh : 20111.0 million              1.0 million              2011              0.8 million              2000        ...
Migration Trends: 1961-2011
Components of Urban Population Growth : 1961 – 2011*                                        100                           ...
Estimated MajorInter-State MigrationStreams : 2001-2011
Estimated Top 50% Migration Streams into Urban Areas: 2001-2011
The national economic context:          1970-2010
India Rural: Urban GDP share (1970-2009)                70                                               Early         Pha...
India Rural: Urban GDP fraction (1970-2009)                   100%                                                   Early...
India: Urban sectoral GDP growth (1970-2009)                35                               Other Services               ...
India: Urban sectoral GDP structure (1970-2009)                   100%                            Other ServicesPercent of...
India: Inclusive Wealth trends (1990-2008)                                                          Dasgupta et. al, 2012I...
India’s Coming transition (2011-2031)• India will add at least 300 million new people to its cities in the  next 30 years•...
India: Urban Workforce distribution (2004-05)                   30                   25Percent of Total                   ...
India: GDP & Employment structure (2009)         Urban Formal :                   5%                                      ...
India: Urban Unorganized Sector GDP structure (1980-2009)                   100%                                          ...
India: Urban GDP composition (2009-10)                3.5                  3Rs Lakh Crore                2.5              ...
India: Informal & Formal Worker productivity                6,00,000                                       (GVA per worker...
Urban Poverty and Inequality
City-size wise Urban Poor and Slums                        100%                        90%                        80%     ...
Caste-wise Wealth Distribution in Rural India (2002)                              Rural Rural600       600500       500400...
Caste-wise Wealth Distribution in Urban India (2002)                             Urban Rural600        600500        50040...
Managing India’s Urban Future        2011-2031
India’s Urban Future (2011-2031)• India will add at least 300 million new people to its cities in 30 years• This is on top...
XI Plan Sectoral Investment Allocations (2007-12)                        300                        250                   ...
India: the opportunity of ten simultaneous Transitions1.    Demographic transition: population stabilisation & aging2.    ...
India’s Urban Development opportunity:               stylised facts & ‘speculation’Indicator               Unit           ...
Who manages Urban India?Top Management• MPs & MLAs                               5,300• Higher Judiciary                  ...
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India's urban transformation the way forward symbiosis 4 march 2013

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Aromar Revi's Annual day lecture to the Symbiosis School of Economics, Pune

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India's urban transformation the way forward symbiosis 4 march 2013

  1. 1. India’s Urban Transformation: iihsThe Way ForwardSymbiosis, Pune 4th March 2013Aromar Reviarevi@iihs.co.in ; @AromarReviwww.iihs.co.in
  2. 2. The challenge of contemporary Indian cities:integration of the pre-colonial, colonial, ‘modern’ & informal
  3. 3. Yamuna Pushta: c. 2003
  4. 4. Yamuna Pushta demolitions: Feb-May 2004
  5. 5. Yamuna Pushta Forced Evictions: Feb – May 2004 2004 2011
  6. 6. A 30+ year process of state-led eviction, demolition and exclusion Dupont, 2011
  7. 7. Systematic processes of eviction and & Resettlement Colonies (1990-2008) Delhi: Demolished Settlements regularisation define Delhi’s land ‘market’ Pushta Dupont, 2011
  8. 8. Our future hinges on the state of Indian cities
  9. 9. Urban Development: catalysing five national outcomes by the 2030s Reduced Poverty and Inequality Inclusive Economic Growth Social Transformation Environmental Sustainability Unified & Robust Polity
  10. 10. A long view of History
  11. 11. Relative National Share of Global Economic Output (1500 to 2050ACE) 35% 30% China % Share of Global Output US 25% India 20% 15% Russia 10% UK 5% Japan 0% 1500 1600 1700 Time 1800 1900 2000 US China India UK Japan Russia Asia returns to centre of the global economy after a gap of 250 years
  12. 12. Urbanisation: a key growth & economic development driver
  13. 13. New Geographies = New 21st century Histories Early- mid 21st century 16-18th century 19- mid 20th century Late 20th century
  14. 14. The Challenge of the 21st century Sustainability Transition Present consumption requires ~2.0 worlds 21st century Population growth needs 1.5+ worlds Available only One World Ending poverty at present throughput ~2.0 worldsThe Sustainability traverse will be largely played out in Chinese & Indian cities
  15. 15. Himalayan Glacial melt (1921-2009)
  16. 16. Future History - Sustainability Transitions: 2005  ‘Sustainable Development’Can China traverse the environmental Kuznets curve; Germany & USA converge without serious Human Development decline India ‘tunnel through’; or will there be serious international ‘resource’ conflict?
  17. 17. China’s urbanisation: 1992-2012
  18. 18. Deng’s tour of the Southern provinces: Feb 1992
  19. 19. China’s urbanisation: the view from Space..
  20. 20. China: Feb 1992
  21. 21. China: Feb 2000
  22. 22. China: Feb 2008
  23. 23. Why is China’s urbanisation important?1. It is the largest urbanisation in human history: the addition of ~300 million people to China’s urban population in 20 years2. This propelled the largest economic growth surge in history
  24. 24. India’s urbanisation: the view across time..
  25. 25. Major Powers of the Indian Subcontinent (500 BCE to 2010 ACE) Maurya Gupta Hoysala Tuluva Mughal British
  26. 26. India Urban Dynamics: 1951-2031
  27. 27. 1951 Tibet W. Pakistan Nepal E. Pakistan IndiaPopulation Size (millions) < 0.1 0.1 – 0.5 0.5 - 1 1-5 >5Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001 UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, 2009-10
  28. 28. India 1951• Only 5 cities with a population > 1m and 41 with > 0.1m• Much of India lived in 0.56 m villages
  29. 29. 1961 800 Population (in millions) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 Urban Population Growth Kolkata (5.7)Population Size (millions) 800 < 0.1 700 Urban Settlements 0.1 – 0.5 600 0.5 - 1 500 400 1-5 300 200 >5 100 0 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001 UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, 2009-10 Large Urban Settlement Growth
  30. 30. 1971 800 Population (in millions) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 Urban Population Growth Kolkata (6.9) Mumbai (5.8)Population Size (millions) 800 < 0.1 700 Urban Settlements 0.1 – 0.5 600 0.5 - 1 500 400 1-5 300 200 >5 100 0 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001 UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, 2009-10 Large Urban Settlement Growth
  31. 31. 1981 800 Population (in millions) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 Delhi Urban Population Growth (5.6) Kolkata (9) Mumbai (8.6)Population Size (millions) 800 < 0.1 700 Urban Settlements 0.1 – 0.5 600 0.5 - 1 500 400 1-5 300 200 >5 100 0 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001 UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, 2009-10 Large Urban Settlement
  32. 32. 1991 800 Population (in millions) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 Delhi Urban Population Growth (8.2) Kolkata (10.9) Mumbai (12.3)Population Size (millions) 800 < 0.1 700 Urban Settlements 0.1 – 0.5 600 0.5 - 1 500 400 1-5 300 Chennai 200 >5 (5.3) 100 0 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001 UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, 2009-10 Large Urban Settlement Growth
  33. 33. 2001 800 Population (in millions) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 Delhi Urban Population Growth (12.4) Kolkata (13.1) Mumbai (16.1) Hyderabad (5.4)Population Size (millions) 800 < 0.1 700 Urban Settlements 0.1 – 0.5 600 0.5 - 1 Bangalore 500 400 1-5 (5.6) 300 Chennai 200 >5 (6.6) 100 0 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001 UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, 2009-10 Large Urban Settlement
  34. 34. 2011 800 Population (in millions) 700 600 500 3 cities with a 400 300 population > 10 m 200 and 53 with > 1m 100 0 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 833 m live in 0.64 mDelhi Urban Population Growth villages (16.9) 377 m live in ~ 8,000 urban centres Ahmedabad (5.7) Kolkata (15.5) Mumbai (20) Hyderabad (6.7)Population Size (millions) Pune (5.0) 800 < 0.1 700 Urban Settlements 0.1 – 0.5 600 0.5 - 1 Bangalore 500 400 1-5 (7.2) 300 Chennai 200 >5 (7.5) 100 0 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001 UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, 2009-10 Large Urban Settlement
  35. 35. India 2011• 3 cities with a population > 10 m and• 53 cities with > 1m• 833 m live in 0.64 m villages• 377 m live in ~ 8,000 urban centres
  36. 36. 2031 800 Population (in millions) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 Delhi Kanpur Urban Population Growth (24.4) (5.1) Ahmedabad (8.5) Kolkata Surat (22.3) (6.3) Mumbai (28.6) Hyderabad (9.9)Population Size (millions) Pune (7.4) 800 < 0.1 700 Urban Settlements 0.1 – 0.5 600 0.5 - 1 Bangalore 500 400 1-5 (10.6) 300 Chennai 200 >5 (11.1) 100 0 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031Source: Census of India, 1971-2001 UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, 2009-10 Large Urban Settlement Growth
  37. 37. India 2031• 6 cities with a population > 10 m and > 70 with > 1m• How many Indians will live in medium & small towns?• The bridge between rural & urban India
  38. 38. India’s urbanisation: the view from Space..
  39. 39. Feb 1992
  40. 40. Feb 2008
  41. 41. India: 13 Nov 2012
  42. 42. Spatial Concentration of Economic Activity: 2005
  43. 43. District agriculturaloutput distribution: 2005
  44. 44. District Manufacturingoutput distribution: 2005
  45. 45. Top 100 Cities : 2011 Land Land 0.24%Population Population 16% Output Output 43% 0 10 20 30 40 50 Proportion of all-India
  46. 46. Distribution of India’s Population by Settlement Size : 1951-2011 100% 1% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% 1% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 4% 265m 7% 4% 90% 8% 6% 5% 6% Class I Cities 3% 8% 7% 1% 8% 5% 8% 1% 9% 80% 8% 1% 8% 200m 112m 10% 8%Proportion of All India Population (%) 1% 17% 12% 1% 9% Other Urban Centres 70% 1% 18% 14% 16% 20% 60% 17% Large Villages 21% 20% 50% 22% 21% 23% 21% 40% 24% 20% 21% 30% Medium and Small 537m 19% 19% 18% 18% Villages 20% 17% 15% 12% 10% 22% 10% 17% 13% 8% 10% 7% 5% 3% 0% 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
  47. 47. Urban Growth & Sprawl: 1991-2011
  48. 48. Delhi : 19928.7 million 8.7 million 1992
  49. 49. Delhi : 200013.7 million 13.7 million 2000 8.7 million 1992
  50. 50. Delhi : 201116.3 million 16.3 million 2011 13.7 million 2000 8.7 million 1992
  51. 51. Bangalore : 19923.4 million 3.4 million 1992
  52. 52. Bangalore : 20015.7 million 5.7 million 2001 3.4 million 1992
  53. 53. Bangalore : 20098.5 million 8.5 million 2009 5.7 million 2001 3.4 million 1992
  54. 54. Chandigarh : 19890.6 million 0.6 million 1989
  55. 55. Chandigarh : 20000.8 million 0.8 million 2000 0.6 million 1989
  56. 56. Chandigarh : 20111.0 million 1.0 million 2011 0.8 million 2000 0.6 million 1989
  57. 57. Migration Trends: 1961-2011
  58. 58. Components of Urban Population Growth : 1961 – 2011* 100 90 80 Urban Population Growth (in million) 70 60 50 100 40 90 80 Net Rural to Urban Urban Population Growth (in million) 30 70 migration 60 Expansion in urban area / 20 agglomeration 50 10 40 New towns less 30 declassified towns 0 20 Natural Growth 1961-71 10 1971-81 1981-91 1991-2001 2001-2011
  59. 59. Estimated MajorInter-State MigrationStreams : 2001-2011
  60. 60. Estimated Top 50% Migration Streams into Urban Areas: 2001-2011
  61. 61. The national economic context: 1970-2010
  62. 62. India Rural: Urban GDP share (1970-2009) 70 Early Phase I Phase II 60 economic economic economic reforms reforms reforms 50Rs Lakh Crore 40 Urban 30 Rural 20 10 0 1970-71 1975-76 1980-81 1987-88 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 2009-10 (estimate) Post-liberalisation boom in India’s urban All amounts in constant 2009-10 prices. economy, esp. In the Phase II period Source: National Accounts Statistics
  63. 63. India Rural: Urban GDP fraction (1970-2009) 100% Early Phase I Phase II 90% economic economic economic 80% reforms reforms reforms 70%Percent of Total 60% 50% Urban 40% Rural 30% 20% 10% 0% 1970-71 1975-76 1980-81 1987-88 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 2009-10 (estimate) Above half of India’s GDP comes from All amounts in constant 2009-10 prices. ~8,000 urban areas Source: National Accounts Statistics
  64. 64. India: Urban sectoral GDP growth (1970-2009) 35 Other Services 30 Public Admn & Defence 25 Real Estate & Business ServicesRs Lakh Crore Banking & Finance 20 Transport, Storage & Communications 15 Hotels & Restaurants 10 Trade 5 Construction 0 Electricity, Gas, Water Manufacturing Mining AgricultureManufacturing, trade, transport, banking and real All amounts in constant 2009-10 prices. estate primary drivers of the urban economy Source: National Accounts Statistics
  65. 65. India: Urban sectoral GDP structure (1970-2009) 100% Other ServicesPercent of Total 90% Public Admn & Defence 80% Real Estate & Business Services 70% 60% Banking & Finance 50% Transport, Storage & Communications 40% Hotels & Restaurants 30% 20% Trade 10% Construction 0% Electricity, Gas, Water Manufacturing Mining AgricultureDecline in manufacturing , construction and trade All amounts in constant 2009-10 prices.shares. Growth in transport, banking & real estate Source: National Accounts Statistics
  66. 66. India: Inclusive Wealth trends (1990-2008) Dasgupta et. al, 2012India’s Inclusive Wealth base is about 4 times its GDP.Of this, the largest component is ‘human capital’
  67. 67. India’s Coming transition (2011-2031)• India will add at least 300 million new people to its cities in the next 30 years• This is on top of the current urban population of ~300 million, of whom over 70 million are poor• In 2031, three of the ten largest megacities in the world will be in India: Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata• Over 75 other cities will have a population of over 1 million• This will be the second largest urbanisation in human history creating huge market opportunities and development challenges• The only option to avoid complete systemic urban breakdown is the simultaneous transformation of India’s cities and its villages• A wide range of technical, institutional and social innovations will be required to enable this
  68. 68. India: Urban Workforce distribution (2004-05) 30 25Percent of Total 20 15 10 5 0 Two-thirds of the urban employment is in Source: Sachar Committee Report, manufacturing, trade & other services. 2006
  69. 69. India: GDP & Employment structure (2009) Urban Formal : 5% Urban Formal : 25% Urban Informal : 25% Urban Informal : 26% Rural : 45% Rural : 70% Source: NCEUS, 2009; Kannan & Raveendran (2009) The urban informal sector with a quarter of the workers produces roughly a quarter of the GDP. The urban formal sector with 5 percent of the workers produces a similar share of the GDP.
  70. 70. India: Urban Unorganized Sector GDP structure (1980-2009) 100% Other Services 90% 80% Real Estate & Business Services 70% Banking & FinancePercent of Total 60% 50% Transport, Storage & Communications 40% Hotels & Restaurants 30% Trade 20% 10% Construction 0% Manufacturing Agriculture Share of transport and real estate has grown, construction and trade remained steady and All amounts in constant manufacturing contributors to urban unorganised 2009-10 prices. Source: National Accounts sector output declined Statistics
  71. 71. India: Urban GDP composition (2009-10) 3.5 3Rs Lakh Crore 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Organized 0 UnorganizedUrban India has a highly differentiated structure of economic output and mix of informal sector activity – which has been poorly addressed in urban development
  72. 72. India: Informal & Formal Worker productivity 6,00,000 (GVA per worker 2004-05) 5,00,000Rs per worker 4,00,000 3,00,000 2,00,000 1,00,000 0 Aggregate GVA per worker Estimated GVA per worker in unorganized sectorLabour productivity of some informal sector activities are comparable with the formal sector: trade, construction, real estate, personal services
  73. 73. Urban Poverty and Inequality
  74. 74. City-size wise Urban Poor and Slums 100% 90% 80% Large Cities 70% (>1million) Percentage Share 60% Small and 50% Medium Cities 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Share of urban poor Share of slum population
  75. 75. Caste-wise Wealth Distribution in Rural India (2002) Rural Rural600 600500 500400 400 ST SC300 300 OBC FC200 200 NH100 100 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 15 20 25 3045 50 45 50 55 6070 75 75 80 85 9095 5 10 30 35 40 35 40 55 60 65 65 70 80 85 90 95
  76. 76. Caste-wise Wealth Distribution in Urban India (2002) Urban Rural600 600500 500400 400 ST SC300 300 OBC FC200 200 NH100 100 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 15 20 25 3045 50 45 50 55 6070 75 75 80 85 9095 5 10 30 35 40 35 40 55 60 65 65 70 80 85 90 95
  77. 77. Managing India’s Urban Future 2011-2031
  78. 78. India’s Urban Future (2011-2031)• India will add at least 300 million new people to its cities in 30 years• This is on top of the current urban population of ~300 million, of whom over 70 million are poor• In 2031, three of the ten largest megacities in the world will be in India: Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata• Over 70 other cities will have a population of over 1 million• This will be the second largest urbanisation in human history creating huge market opportunities and development challenges• The only option to avoid complete urban breakdown is the simultaneous transformation of India’s cities and its villages• The key to this the education of a new generation of changemakers and entrepreneurs and building the capacities and motivation of current working professionals
  79. 79. XI Plan Sectoral Investment Allocations (2007-12) 300 250 > 10 times 200 (Rs Thousand Crores) 150 100 50 0
  80. 80. India: the opportunity of ten simultaneous Transitions1. Demographic transition: population stabilisation & aging2. Health transition: infectious + lifestyle disease burden3. Education transition: elementary  secondary tertiary4. Energy transition: oil + coal  gas + renewables5. Environmental transition: ‘brown’ + ‘grey’ + ‘green’ agendas6. Information transition: post phone cell phone + www7. Livelihoods transition: agrarian  green + knowledge jobs8. Economic transition: primary + secondary  tertiary-led9. Political transition: decentralised, youth and urban10. Urban transition: rural  ‘urban’
  81. 81. India’s Urban Development opportunity: stylised facts & ‘speculation’Indicator Unit 2012 2030 2040GDP/cap (2010 prices) Lakh Rs/capita ~0.75 ~ 2.5 ~ 4.5GDP (@ ~7% growth) crore crores 1 3.5 6.5Urban share % 55% 70% 80%Urban GDP lakh crores 55 231 520∆ Urban GDP lakh crores/yr ~9 ~ 29Urban Informal lakh crores 26 115 260Life Expectancy years 68 75 80+HDI 0.55 0.75 0.9Consumption Gini 0.38 0.33 ? 0.3 ?Carbon footprint t C/capita 1.5 2.5 ? ~ 1.5 ?
  82. 82. Who manages Urban India?Top Management• MPs & MLAs 5,300• Higher Judiciary 650• IAS & IPS 8,200• CXOs (top 500 corporates) ~ 5,000• NGO leadership ~ 1,750Total 20,900% educated & trained in urban practice < 5%Middle Management• Senior Municipal officials ~ 4,000• Senior Engineers ~ 8,000• Urban Planners ~ 2,000Total ~ 14,000% educated & trained in urban practice < 20%
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