AGRICULTURE
GROSS DISTRICT DOMESTIC PRODUCT
              2006-07




     Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd.
OBJECTIVE

CONTENT OVERVIEW

S TRATEGIC TOOL


HETEROGENEITY IN INDIAN AGRICULTURE


METHODOLOGY

CREDIBILITY OF ES TIMATES
Objective




            •   Sectoral Share of Agriculture declining over the
                years, seeks attention!

  ...
Content
Overview   FOR ALL 593 DISTRICTS…

           •   Gross Domestic Product

           •   Consumer Demographics

  ...
Strategic
tool for…   •   Input-providing enterprises to explore and tap
                the agriculture domain

         ...
OBJECTIVE

CONTENT OVERVIEW

S TRATEGIC TOOL


HETEROGENEITY IN INDIAN AGRICULTURE


METHODOLOGY

CREDIBILITY OF ES TIMATES
GROSS DISTRICT DOMESTIC PRODUCT AGRICULTURE


                               700,000

                               600,0...
LEADING DISTRICTS

Top 5 States     Share in India’s
                 GDP Agriculture
                        2005-06
Utta...
H ETEROGENEITY I N G ROWTH P ERFORMANCE
  Annualized G rowth in real terms since 1993-94
                                 ...
Income from
Agriculture
            • Variation at District level agriculture income
              estimations

          ...
OBJECTIVE

CONTENT OVERVIEW

S TRATEGIC TOOL


HETEROGENEITY IN INDIAN AGRICULTURE


METHODOLOGY

CREDIBILITY OF ES TIMATES
MODIFYING THE STIPULATED CSO METHODOLOGY



              •   Data availability is highly uneven across states
           ...
•   As the number of districts changed over the
                   years, comparing time series data is rendered
         ...
•   Base data for Prices were sourced from the
                  Ministry     of    Agriculture     publication,
         ...
•   VOP = Σ (Production X Price) across all
                     crops in the district.

                 •   District lev...
OBJECTIVE

CONTENT OVERVIEW

S TRATEGIC TOOL


HETEROGENEITY IN INDIAN AGRICULTURE


METHODOLOGY

CREDIBILITY OF ES TIMATES
Comparison of District level Agriculture GDP Estimates



                                                           10000...
ORDER NOW!!!



            Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd.
               2nd Floor, Nehru House,
           4 Bahadur Shah Z...
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Agr Gdp Overview Mkt

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Transcript of "Agr Gdp Overview Mkt"

  1. 1. AGRICULTURE GROSS DISTRICT DOMESTIC PRODUCT 2006-07 Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd.
  2. 2. OBJECTIVE CONTENT OVERVIEW S TRATEGIC TOOL HETEROGENEITY IN INDIAN AGRICULTURE METHODOLOGY CREDIBILITY OF ES TIMATES
  3. 3. Objective • Sectoral Share of Agriculture declining over the years, seeks attention! • Employing nearly 60% of the labour force of India, demands great focus… • Tremendous resource potential across districts, untapped…
  4. 4. Content Overview FOR ALL 593 DISTRICTS… • Gross Domestic Product • Consumer Demographics • Rural Work Force • Agricultural Inputs • Geographical Spread • Rural Finance • Agricultural Production See more…
  5. 5. Strategic tool for… • Input-providing enterprises to explore and tap the agriculture domain • Credit facilitating agencies, banks and financial institutions to ascertain the rural finance situation • Companies and SME’s looking for agricultural markets • Research firms and Universities • Policy making departments and individuals
  6. 6. OBJECTIVE CONTENT OVERVIEW S TRATEGIC TOOL HETEROGENEITY IN INDIAN AGRICULTURE METHODOLOGY CREDIBILITY OF ES TIMATES
  7. 7. GROSS DISTRICT DOMESTIC PRODUCT AGRICULTURE 700,000 600,000 Rs Crore (at current prices) Gross Domestic Product 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Years Source: Central Statistical Organization (CSO) Growth has been low, with fluctuations over the years
  8. 8. LEADING DISTRICTS Top 5 States Share in India’s GDP Agriculture 2005-06 Uttar Pradesh 14.49% Andhra Pradesh 8.87% West Bengal 7.94% Maharashtra 7.76% Punjab 6.56%
  9. 9. H ETEROGENEITY I N G ROWTH P ERFORMANCE Annualized G rowth in real terms since 1993-94 High Growth Nagaland 15.34% Orissa 6.90% Mizoram 6.33% Meghalaya 5.92% Jharkhand 4.50% Low Growth Pondicherry -2.66% Kerala -2.48% Chhattisgarh -2.40% Chandigarh -1.11% Tamil Nadu -0.91%
  10. 10. Income from Agriculture • Variation at District level agriculture income estimations • Exploring intra-state differential in agricultural performance • The District therefore comes across as the crucial point of planning and policy intervention • Effective implementation at the district level gets constrained for the want of credible and timely information • By presenting the agricultural income estimates at district level, Indicus allows for better- informed and comprehensive decision-making
  11. 11. OBJECTIVE CONTENT OVERVIEW S TRATEGIC TOOL HETEROGENEITY IN INDIAN AGRICULTURE METHODOLOGY CREDIBILITY OF ES TIMATES
  12. 12. MODIFYING THE STIPULATED CSO METHODOLOGY • Data availability is highly uneven across states as well as time. • District-level information on Crop inputs is rarely available in government publications. Methodology • Econometric tests on available DDP data show that value of production (VoP) is the best determinant of district agriculture GDP. • Hence VOP has been used to estimate the AGDDP. Accordingly, for each state, 20 main crops were taken, which account for 75% to 99% of CSO’s total VOP estimates.
  13. 13. • As the number of districts changed over the years, comparing time series data is rendered difficult. • A unique feature of this database is that it allows for comparability across time, by accounting for the reorganization of districts. • For the newly created districts, the crop production of the old undivided district was Methodology… proportionally allocated for new ones, based on their latest production data. Production • The underlying assumption is that proportional distribution of the latest year’s production holds good in the past as well. • The dataset covers 593 districts, following the Census 2001 list • The average production for adjoining two years during early & late 90’s has been considered as the two time points to calculate the trend rate over the time period.
  14. 14. • Base data for Prices were sourced from the Ministry of Agriculture publication, Agricultural Prices in India 1999. • In order to extrapolate prices for the Methodology succeeding years, the average annual inflation rates have been used per crop …Price from the Wholesale Price Index. • However, there are numerous missing observations. In the absence of data for a particular crop price in a year for a certain district, the All India average price has been used for the crop.
  15. 15. • VOP = Σ (Production X Price) across all crops in the district. • District level estimates of VOP have then Methodology… been calibrated to the state level VOP. District Domestic Product • These District VOP proportions are then used to proportionately distribute the State GSDP from Agriculture at current prices amongst the districts.
  16. 16. OBJECTIVE CONTENT OVERVIEW S TRATEGIC TOOL HETEROGENEITY IN INDIAN AGRICULTURE METHODOLOGY CREDIBILITY OF ES TIMATES
  17. 17. Comparison of District level Agriculture GDP Estimates 10000 Govt. Of Arunachal Pradesh Estimates 2 R = 0.8365 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Credibility of Indicus Estimates Estimates…
  18. 18. ORDER NOW!!! Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd. 2nd Floor, Nehru House, 4 Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg New Delhi- 110002. Phone: 91-11-42512400/01 www.indicus.net
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