The Demographic Transition Model

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The Demographic Transition Model, developed by Warren Thompson (1929), posits a shift from an agricultural, rural economy to an industrialized, urban society. A characteristic of this shift is an intermediate period of rapid population growth during which slowly declining fertility rates lag behind rapidly declining mortality rates. This presentation will explore the four stages of the Demographic Transition Model, the relationship between economic development and population growth, as well as the potential issues and shortfalls when applying this classic model to today’s developing countries.

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The Demographic Transition Model

  1. 1. Keene State College<br />Human Cultural Mosaic<br />ISGEOG203 Fall ‘09<br />Professor: Dr. Rydant<br />Created by: April Buzby<br /> Supplemental Instructor<br />The Demographic Transition<br />
  2. 2. Introduction<br />Demographic Transition Model(DTM) <br /><ul><li>Represents a nation’s transition through industrialization
  3. 3. Commonly involves 4 stages
  4. 4. An idealized picture of population change in a country. </li></ul>April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />2<br />
  5. 5. Introduction<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />Population Pyramid<br /><ul><li>Shows the distribution population by age and sex
  6. 6. A specific age group (i.e. ages 0-4) is called a cohort.
  7. 7. Different stages in the demographic transition show considerably different population pyramids</li></ul>3<br />
  8. 8. Stage 1: Pre-Industrial Period<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />4<br />Crude Birth Rate (CBR): the annual number of live births per 1000 people.<br />Crude Death Rate (CDR): the annual number of deaths per 1000 people.<br /><ul><li>Crude Birth Rate: High
  9. 9. Crude Death Rate: High
  10. 10. Rate of Natural Increase: Fluctuating
  11. 11. Examples: Britain in the 17th and 18th century; some remote Amazon tribes</li></ul>Rate of Natural Increase: the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths during the year found through the equation birth rate (b) – death rate (d) = rate of natural increase (r).<br />
  12. 12. Stage 1: Birth Rate<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />Birth Rate is high due to:<br /><ul><li>Lack of family planning
  13. 13. High Infant Mortality Rate
  14. 14. Need for workers in agriculture
  15. 15. Religious beliefs
  16. 16. Children as economic assets</li></ul>5<br />Infant Mortality Rate: the annual number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per 1000 live births.<br />
  17. 17. Stage 1: Death Rate<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />Death Rate is high due to:<br /><ul><li>Disease
  18. 18. Famine
  19. 19. Lack of clean water and sanitation
  20. 20. Lack of health care
  21. 21. War
  22. 22. Limited food supply
  23. 23. Lack of education</li></ul>6<br />
  24. 24. Stage 1: Population Change<br />Population Change<br /><ul><li>Due to high birth and death rates, population is stable.
  25. 25. Population Growth Rate: ≤ 1%
  26. 26. Doubling Time: ~100 years</li></ul>April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />7<br />Doubling Time: The number of years it will take to double the present population given its current rate of population growth.<br />
  27. 27. Stage 1: Age Structure<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />Life Expectancy: number of years which an individual at a given age could expect to live at present mortality levels.<br />Population Pyramid Shape: Concave triangular<br />Age Structure of Population:<br /><ul><li>Rapid fall in each age group due to high death rates
  28. 28. Short life expectancy</li></ul>8<br />
  29. 29. Stage 2: Transitional Period<br />Crude Birth Rate: High<br />Crude Death Rate: Decreasing<br />Rate of Natural Increase: Increasing<br />Examples: Britain late 18th Century to mid-19th Century, Kenya <br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />9<br />
  30. 30. Stage 2: Birth Rate<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The number of live births per woman from age 15 to 49.<br />Birth Rate remains high due to:<br /><ul><li>Total Fertility Rate (TFR): 4.56
  31. 31. People are used to having many children. Takes time for culture to change
  32. 32. Religious beliefs</li></ul>10<br />
  33. 33. Stage 2: Death Rate<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />Death Rate decreasing due to:<br /><ul><li>Improved Hygiene
  34. 34. Improved sanitation
  35. 35. Improved food production and storage
  36. 36. Improved transport for food</li></ul>11<br />
  37. 37. Stage 2: Population Change<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />Population Change<br /><ul><li>“Population Explosion" - gap between deaths and births grows wider.
  38. 38. England’s Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions.
  39. 39. LDC cause of today’s population explosion
  40. 40. Population Growth rate: 3%
  41. 41. Doubling Time: 18-20 years</li></ul>12<br />
  42. 42. Stage 2: Age Structure<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />Population Pyramid Shape: Triangular<br />Age structure of Population:<br /><ul><li>Growing young dependant population
  43. 43. Increasingly youthful age structure
  44. 44. Accelerating population growth</li></ul>13<br />
  45. 45. Stage 3: Industrial Period<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />Crude Birth Rate:Decreasing<br />Crude Death Rate:Continues to decrease <br />Rate of Natural Increase:Increasing but at a slower rate<br />Examples: Britain early 20th century; Brazil; Mexico<br />14<br />
  46. 46. Stage 3: Birth Rate<br />Birth Rate decreasing due to:<br /><ul><li>TFR: 2.05
  47. 47. Improvements in contraceptive technology.
  48. 48. Changes in values about children and sex.
  49. 49. Parents need fewer children.
  50. 50. Rising costs of dependent children to a family.
  51. 51. Valuation of women beyond motherhood.
  52. 52. Working women have less time to devote to child rearing. </li></ul>April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />15<br />
  53. 53. Stage 3: Death Rate<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />Death Rate low due to:<br /><ul><li>Better Health Care
  54. 54. Vaccinations
  55. 55. Better understanding of the spread of diseases
  56. 56. Pre-natal care
  57. 57. Improved sanitation (i.e. indoor plumbing)
  58. 58. Improved quality and quantity of food</li></ul>16<br />
  59. 59. Stage 3: Population Change<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />Population Change<br /><ul><li>Large 15-45 cohort equals continued population growth
  60. 60. Population Growth rate: ≤ 1%
  61. 61. Doubling Time: 65 years</li></ul>17<br />
  62. 62. Stage 3: Age Structure<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />Population Pyramid Shape: Columnar<br />Age structure of Population:<br /><ul><li>Decreasing TFR
  63. 63. Bulge in the reproductive cohorts
  64. 64. Narrowing pyramid base</li></ul>18<br />
  65. 65. Stage 4: Post-Industrial Period<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />Crude Birth Rate:Low<br />Crude Death Rate:Low<br />Rate of Natural Increase:Stable<br />Examples: Britain late-20th century; Sweden; Japan<br />19<br />
  66. 66. Stage 4: Birth Rate<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />Birth Rate low due to:<br /><ul><li>TFR: 2.1
  67. 67. Family planning
  68. 68. Good health
  69. 69. Improved status of women
  70. 70. Later marriages</li></ul>20<br />
  71. 71. Stage 4: Death Rate<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />Death Rate low due to:<br /><ul><li>Improved health care
  72. 72. High quantity and quality of food supply</li></ul>21<br />
  73. 73. Stage 4: Population Change<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />Replacement Fertility Level: The level of fertility at which a cohort of women on the average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population.<br />Population Change<br /><ul><li>TFR falls to replacement fertility levels (2.1)
  74. 74. Zero Population Growth (ZPG) reached
  75. 75. Stable but high population size
  76. 76. Population Growth rate: >1%
  77. 77. Doubling Time: ~1000 years</li></ul>22<br />
  78. 78. Stage 4: Age Structure<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />Population Pyramid Shape: Inverted<br />Age structure of Population:<br /><ul><li>Characterized by stability.
  79. 79. Age structure becomes older.</li></ul>23<br />
  80. 80. A Fifth Stage?<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />The original Demographic Transition Model has just four stages; however in some cases the fertility rate falls well below replacement level and population decline sets in rapidly. It is theorized that a fifth stage is necessary to account for this demographic stage.<br /><ul><li>Example: Romania
  81. 81. CBR: 10.53
  82. 82. CDR: 11.88
  83. 83. TFR: 1.39
  84. 84. Population Growth : -0.147%</li></ul>24<br />
  85. 85. Modern Applicability<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br /><ul><li>Generalization from European experience
  86. 86. Assumes that population changes are induced by industrial changes and increased wealth
  87. 87. Assumes that the birth rate is independent of the death rate.
  88. 88. Assumes that countries will go through all the stages.
  89. 89. Some countries may skip stages.
  90. 90. Does not account for migration.
  91. 91. Does not take into account the role of social change in determining birth rates, e.g., the education of women.
  92. 92. Some countries are in a demographic trap and can not progress</li></ul>25<br />
  93. 93. The Human Development Index and the DTM<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br /><ul><li>Fertility declines at low and medium Human Development Index (HDI) levels
  94. 94. Theorizes that advanced HDI promotes a rebound in fertility.
  95. 95. In many countries with very high levels of development (around 0.95) fertility rates are now approaching two children per woman.</li></ul>Example: Netherlands<br />CBR: 12<br />CDR: 9<br />TFR: 1.7<br />Population Growth : 0.7<br />HDI: 0.953 (9th)<br />26<br />
  96. 96. Conclusion<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br /><ul><li>Represents a nation’s transition through industrialization
  97. 97. Commonly involves 4 stages
  98. 98. An idealized picture of population change in a country.
  99. 99. Used to indicate future birth rates, death rates , and the population size of developing countries
  100. 100. Generalization from European experience
  101. 101. Assumes that population changes are induced by industrial changes and increased wealth
  102. 102. Different stages in the demographic transition show considerably different population pyramids</li></ul>27<br />
  103. 103. Crude Birth Rate (CBR): the annual number of live births per 1000 people.<br />Crude Death Rate (CDR): the annual number of deaths per 1000 people.<br />Total Fertility Rate (TFR): the annual number of live births per woman from age 15 to 49 years old.<br />Infant Mortality Rate: the annual number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per 1000 live births.<br />Life Expectancy: number of years which an individual at a given age could expect to live at present mortality levels.<br />Rate of Natural Increase: the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths during the year found through the equation birth rate (b) – death rate (d) = rate of natural increase (r).<br />Doubling Time: the number of years it will take to double the present population given its current rate of population growth.<br />Replacement Fertility: the level of fertility at which a cohort of women on the average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population.<br />Population Momentum: the tendency of population growth to continue after the TFR achieves replacement fertility levels.<br />28<br />Glossary<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />
  104. 104. Sources<br />April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009<br />CIA World Factbook<br />Domosh , M., Neumann, R.P., Price, P.L., Jodan-Bychkov, T.G., (2009). The human mosaic, eleventh edition.<br />Montgomery, Keith. The demographic transition<br />Myrskyla, M., Kohler, H-P., and Billari, F. Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature 460, 741-743 (6 August 2009).<br />U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. International Data Base (IDB).<br />United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Human Development Reports.<br />29<br />

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