Unraveling the Relationship (TV and streaming)

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Cutting The Cord? Unraveling the Relationship Between TV and
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Unraveling the Relationship (TV and streaming)

  1. 1. Webinar, April 25, 2009 Cutting The Cord? Unraveling the Relationship Between TV and Streaming Video Jon Gibs, VP Media Analytics jon.gibs@nielsen.com Howard Shimmel, SVP, Nielsen Solutions Howard.shimmel@nielsen.com © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  2. 2. Nielsen’s video measurement methodology © 2009 The Nielsen Company Page 1 www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  3. 3. We’ll get to empiricism shortly, but first, one big question: Why does it Why does this sound so sound so plausible? plausible? © 2009 The Nielsen Company Page 2 www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  4. 4. Why does it sound so plausible? Because of this guy. Meet Ben Harris! • Product manager for VideoCensus • Well educated • Clearly young • High income potential • Almost the only person in our office to “cut the cord” • “I never watched much TV to begin with…” © 2009 The Nielsen Company Page 3 www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  5. 5. Only slight growth in “cord cutting” households Growth of Media Platforms 70 62% 60 55% Cable and Broadband 50 Percent Of Population Cable and Narrowband 40 Cable and No Internet 30 20 No Cable and Broadband 10 No Cable and Narrowband 3.2% 3.9% 0 08 Au 8 M8 08 08 09 08 08 8 No 8 08 M8 8 l‐0 t‐0 ‐0 0 ‐0 r‐0 n‐ g‐ v‐ b‐ p‐ n‐ n‐ c‐ ay ar Ju Oc Ap De Ju Fe Se Ja Ja Source: National People Meter Sample (1/08 to 1/09) © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  6. 6. Key Finding Cord Cutting may exist in pockets, however, we find little evidence of it existing on the broad scale at this point. This finding is based on the following: • Online video is changing the nature of Internet use—consistently drawing larger audiences and time. All evidence suggests that this growth is happening in tandem with TV growth, rather than at its expense • There is a significant overlap between DVR and streaming use, particularly among those who spend the most time viewing time shifted programming. This suggests that once consumers have gotten used to the concept of time shifting, the platform shift itself is less relevant • To the degree that cord cutting does exist, it does not appear to be a function of age, as is generally assumed. Older populations are more likely to be consuming long-form online video • While some populations are shifting time from TV to the internet, that population is less than a third of those who access streaming content and, of those who do shift time, that vast majority has shifted 5 percent or less of their time © 2009 The Nielsen Company Page 5 www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  7. 7. Is online video big enough to to make Is online video big enough make a difference? a difference? The evolving nature of online video The evolving nature of online video
  8. 8. We’ve seen extraordinary growth in the video category since 2003 Percent Change by Segment Segment 3/03 vs 3/08 vs 3/09 3/09 E-Mail 242% 16% Search 184% 11% Member 780% 61% Communities Video/Movies 1,957% 8% Total (Overall) 175% 8% Source: Nielsen Netview, Combined Home and Work © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  9. 9. Time spent streaming increased 86 percent over 2008 Year over Year Growth: Key Video Metrics 200 186 Audience Index 180 Time Spent Index 160 Index to March 2008 Time per Stream Index 134 140 Streams per Person Index 123 120 113 100 80 60 40 20 ‐ 8 9 9 8 8 8 08 8 8 9 8 8 08 ‐0 ‐0 ‐0 ‐0 ‐0 ‐0 ‐0 ‐0 ‐0 ‐0 ‐0 ct‐ l‐ pr ar ar ov un ug p c b ay an Ju Se Fe De J J A O A N M M M Source: Nielsen VideoCensus, Combined Home and Work © 2009 The Nielsen Company Page 8 www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  10. 10. Significant growth in very young audience—and more wealthy viewers Number of Unique Streamers 40% 80,000 Mar‐08 Unique Streamers (000) 35% 12% 70,000 Mar‐09 14% 30% 60,000 25% 50,000 20% 18% 15% 40,000 12% 14% 10% 6% 30,000 18% 5% 3% 24% 20,000 0% 32% 34% 4% 13% 1% ‐4% 10,000 ‐5% ‐10% 0 Male Female 2 ‐ 11 12 ‐ 17 18 ‐ 24 25 ‐ 34 35 ‐ 49 50 ‐ 64 $0‐$24,999 $50,000‐$74,999 $75,000‐$99,999 $100,000‐$149,999 $150,000+ 65+ $25,000‐$49,999  Source: Nielsen VideoCensus, Combined Home and Work © 2009 The Nielsen Company Page 9 www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  11. 11. Long-form content skews older, challenging demo view of cord-cutting Age Percent Of Age Percent Of Age Percent Of Cohort Viewers Cohort Viewers Cohort Viewers 2-17 16% 2-17 16% 2-17 10% 18-34 27% 18-34 22% 18-34 27% 35+ 57% 35+ 62% 35+ 63% Source: VideoCensus, Combined Home and Work © 2009 The Nielsen Company Page 10 www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  12. 12. 18-24 year-olds decreasing time per stream, relating to overall streaming population Time Per Stream Index 120 100 Time Per Stream Index 80 60 Dec‐08 Mar‐09 40 20 0 2 ‐ 17 18 ‐ 24 25 ‐ 34 35 ‐ 49 50 ‐ 64 65+ Source: VideoCensus, Combined Home and Work © 2009 The Nielsen Company Page 11 www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  13. 13. Why? Overall population is watching more, and kids seem to have different viewing patterns Growth In Time Per Stream And Streams Per Person 8% 160.0 2.7 2.7 140.0 2.6 2.6 120.0 2.5 18% 2.5 100.0 2.4 80.0 2.3 2.2 60.0 2.2 40.0 2.1 20.0 2.0 77.0 74.4 126.1 135.2 0.0 1.9 Universe Dec‐08 Universe Mar‐09 P18‐24 Dec‐08 P18‐24 March‐09 Streams Per Person Time Per Stream Source: Nielsen VideoCensus, Combined Home and Work © 2009 The Nielsen Company Page 12 www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  14. 14. Is online videothe same as timemake Is time shifting big enough to shifting? a difference? The evolvingDVR usage to online streaming Comparing nature of online video
  15. 15. In aggregate, live TV dominates the video market Percent Of Time Per Media 1% 4% Live TV DVR 95% Streaming Source: Nielsen Convergence Panel (6/08 – 8/09): Total Only © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  16. 16. Younger demographics tend to turn to alternative video platforms Percent of Time Per Platform 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 7% 10% 11% 2% 13% 5% 2% 4% 6% 5% 6% 96% 94% 89% 89% 83% 82% 79% 18+ 18‐24 25‐34 35‐44 45‐54 55‐64 65+ Live TV DVR/TiVo DVD/VCR Streaming Source: CRE Study 2009 © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  17. 17. Baby boomers over-index in streaming compared to TV and DVR Percent of Audience Per Platform 7 7 13 18 26 19 Persons 65 ‐ 99 25 Persons 50 ‐ 64 22 29 Persons 35 ‐ 49 17 Persons 25 ‐ 34 14 15 Persons 18 ‐ 24 9 10 9 Persons 12 ‐ 17 7 9 9 Persons 2 ‐ 11 16 14 8 TV DVR Streaming Source: Nielsen VideoCensus, Combined Home and Work. Npower Live + 7 Custom 75% unification, 3/1-3/31/09 © 2009 The Nielsen Company Page 16 www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  18. 18. Daily streaming use peaks throughout workday; TV/DVR use during primetime Audience By Day-Part 10,000 140,000 TV Audience (000) Streaming/DVR Audience (000) 9,000 120,000 8,000 100,000 7,000 6,000 80,000 5,000 60,000 4,000 3,000 40,000 2,000 20,000 1,000 0 0 12:00 PM 1:00 PM 2:00 PM 3:00 PM 4:00 PM 5:00 PM 6:00 PM 7:00 PM 8:00 PM 9:00 PM 10:00 PM 11:00 PM 12:00 AM 1:00 AM 2:00 AM 3:00 AM 4:00 AM 5:00 AM 6:00 AM 7:00 AM 8:00 AM 9:00 AM 10:00 AM 11:00 AM Streaming DVR TV Source: Nielsen Video Census, Combined Home and Work. Npower Live + 7 3/1 3/31/09 © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  19. 19. Streamers transition activity from to work, however, both fall off in primetime Audience By Day-Part 10,000 Streaming/DVR Audience (000) 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2: M 3: M 4: M 5: M 6: M 7: M 8: M 9: M 10  PM 1: M 11  PM PM 2: M 3: M 4: M 5: M 6: M 7: M 8: M 9: M 10  AM 1: M 11  AM 12  AM  P  P  P  P  P  P  P  P P  A  A  A  A  A  A  A  A A 0  0  0  00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0 0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 12 Work DVR Source: Nielsen VideoCensus, Combined Home and Work. Npower Live + 7 3/1-3/31/09 © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  20. 20. A small but significant population uses both DVR and streams video Percent Of Audience By Media Segment DVR Only 20% 35% Stream Only Both 27% 19% Neither Source: Nielsen Convergence Panel (6/08 – 8/09): Total Only © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  21. 21. Those populations most active in time shifting use both internet and DVR Percent Of Time Shifting Audience By Media Segment DVR Only 39% 45% Stream Only Both 16% Source: Nielsen Convergence Panel (6/08 – 8/09): Reflects Time Shifting Quintiles 1 and 2 © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  22. 22. How manyvideo big enough to make Is online screens do I need? a difference? The relationship between online video and TV The evolving nature of online video viewing
  23. 23. Begin at the beginning: What are the relative sizes of media? Source: Nielsen VideoCensus, Combined Home and Work. Npower Live + 7 3/1-3/31/09 © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  24. 24. The basics: Online streaming is the icing on the cake Minutes Viewing Media 147 159 142 131 192 112 8,205 8,040 7,995 7,792 7,333 6,781 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March TV Online Streaming Source: Nielsen Convergence Panel (10/08 – 3/09): Total Only © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  25. 25. Overall, people who like media…like media Media Consumption Level By Usage Quintile Source: Nielsen TV/Internet Convergence Research Panel Reporting © 2009 The Nielsen Company Page 24 www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  26. 26. The Tool: Convergence panel methodology • The ‘Behind The Scenes’ Technology What is Nielsen’s Convergence Panel? - A panel, separate from Nielsen’s TV Viewership Tracking People Meter currency panel, where Nielsen Media Research People Meter both in-home viewing and in-home Full production meter including all active Internet usage are measured to gauge and passive (A/P) capabilities cross-platform usage To date, the panel includes: - Approximately 1,000 households and nearly 3,000 persons. - The panel is made up of a combination of forced turnover homes from our National People Meter sample, Local People Meter sample, homes exiting the National Hispanic Television Index sample. It also includes 200 homes Online Behavior Tracking installed for the field tests used to NielsenOnline NetSight Meter collects streaming and URLs evaluate the impact of adding Internet Does not collect transactional information or PII measurement on TV button pushing Collects “Person’s” information via online prompt compliance. © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com 25
  27. 27. The analysis: Approximating time shift • 472 Convergence panelists active from November 2008 to March 2009 and panelists that streamed video during the measurement period • Most numbers are 6-month average to account for news cycles and new program introductions • Share data based on online streaming population in Convergence panel, and may not equal similar distributions in National People Meter or VideoCensus samples • Online video consumption includes all video with a one-second qualifier © 2009 The Nielsen Company Page 26 www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  28. 28. Less than one-third of streamers have shifted time from TV to the Internet Percent Of Audience Shifting Time Share (Streaming Universe) Postive TV Share Change 29% 30% No Change Positive Online Share 41% Change Source: Nielsen Convergence Panel (11/08 – 3/09): Streaming Population Only © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  29. 29. The majority of viewers have very small shifts in consumption Nielsen Convergence Panel (11/08 – 3/09): Streaming Population Only © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  30. 30. The highest percent of share change is among kids and their parents Share Change By Demographic Segment 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Female Male AGE 2 ‐ AGE 12 AGE 18 AGE 25 AGE 35 AGE 50‐ AGE 11 ‐ 17 ‐ 24 ‐ 34 ‐ 49 64 65+ Postive TV Share Change No Change Positive Online Share Change Source: Nielsen Convergence Panel (11/08 – 3/09): Streaming Population Only © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  31. 31. Shifters in general are viewing more TV regardless of shift Media Consumption By Segment 34 212 237 9,827 6,708 5,717 Postive TV Share Change No Change Positive Online Video Share Change Average TV Minutes Per Month Average Online Streaming  Minutes Per Month Source: Nielsen Convergence Panel (11/08 – 3/09): Streaming Population Only © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  32. 32. What’s next?
  33. 33. Extended Screen What? • Emerging industry trend where cable providers are exploring delivering full television content (programs and commercials) via the Web • Different scenarios for different companies – some in-home only, some also out of home, all locked down securely • Options for Web-only cable subscriptions discussed • Also known as “TV Everywhere (Time Warner Cable) and On-Demand Online (Comcast) • More questions than answers at this point © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  34. 34. Extended Screen Scenarios • Video-On-Demand - Consumers access a library of video content • Time-Shifted - Web-based access to digital video recorders allowing access to record, and also watch previously recorded content • Live - Simultaneous (or near simultaneous) access to linear television video content • Downloaded - Content that is copied down to the computer for offline access © 2009 The Nielsen Company www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  35. 35. Conclusions • Share shift does not exist on a level that can be measured nationally • Though streaming is relatively small, in the long term, there does appear to be a shift for some populations to streaming video. This shift does not appear to be isolated to any specific demographic group, and might yet be the harbinger for future trends • The shift from TV to Internet at this point is a very small percentage of time and given the day part when content is streamed it might have to do with watching more streaming programming at work where a TV is less likely to be available • To the degree that share shifts do exist, the ongoing efforts of the cable MSO’s to create a cable like environment over the Internet might mitigate any shift from a revenue perspective. © 2009 The Nielsen Company Page 34 www.nielsen-online.com / www.nielsen.com
  36. 36. Thank you. About Nielsen Online Nielsen Online, a service of The Nielsen Company, delivers comprehensive, independent measurement and analysis of online and mobile audiences, advertising, video, consumer-generated media, word of mouth, commerce and consumer behavior, and includes products previously marketed under the Nielsen//NetRatings, Nielsen BuzzMetrics and Nielsen Mobile brands. With high quality, technology-driven products and services, Nielsen Online enables clients to make informed business decisions regarding their digital, mobile and marketing strategies. For more information, please visit www.nielsen-online.com. Also, visit our blog at www.nielsen-online.com/blog. About The Nielsen Company The Nielsen Company is a global information and media company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile measurement, trade shows and business publications (Billboard, The Hollywood Reporter, Adweek). The privately held company is active in more than 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA. For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com

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