Mobile games: The Next Big Thing (by David Nixon).
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Mobile games: The Next Big Thing (by David Nixon).

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David Nixon: ...

David Nixon:
• Making games professionally since 1989
• Worked in hardcore, casual, social, mobile
• Shipped hundreds of games
• Passion for Eastern European devs
• Co-Founder “Gemini Hive Inc.”

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Mobile games: The Next Big Thing (by David Nixon). Mobile games: The Next Big Thing (by David Nixon). Presentation Transcript

  • The Next Big ThingSaturday, May 19, 12
  • My Profile • Making games professionally since 1989 • Worked in hardcore, casual, social, mobile • Shipped hundreds of games • Passion for Eastern European devs • Co-Founder “Gemini Hive Inc.”Saturday, May 19, 12
  • Thank You Nekki! Video, images and logos (c) Nekki, 2012Saturday, May 19, 12
  • Bullet Points • Games are no longer the most used apps! • 1,000,000 New Smartphone installs daily, Android is CRUSHING • “Gold rush” to mobile • Free 2 Play might be winning the monetization race • Platform agnosticism is becoming a religion • Big companies spending Big $ to solve the “Discovery Problem” • New ideas, use cases, tech keeps comingSaturday, May 19, 12
  • Battle for “time spent” Another category of apps gives us a run for our moneySaturday, May 19, 12
  • Mobile Social Networking!Saturday, May 19, 12
  • Tough Competition • 5 Major players - 2,000,000,000 people • FB/Instagram - $1,000,000,000 is alot of green • FB IPO - $16,000,000,000 is a TON of green • GREE, Mixi, DeNA, Tencent blanket Asia with nearly 600,000,000 users and all these co’s are tight with the carriersSaturday, May 19, 12
  • The “Silver Lining” • Total minutes are up (77 vs 68) • SN’s are strong enablers for game features • SN introduce and habituate device features • Natural partnerships / overlap • Money to burnSaturday, May 19, 12
  • The Smartphone Revolution is upon us Unless you’ve been asleep for 2 years, this shouldn’t be a surprise to youSaturday, May 19, 12
  • “Smart Device” Growth • 100,000,000+ US smartphone gamers • 10 BILLION by 2020Saturday, May 19, 12
  • It’s global • Growth in every major market • Half of predicted consumption growth is in Asia • Freemium helps confront piracy problemsSaturday, May 19, 12
  • IoS vs. Android • 2x growth in 2012 • Ipad still dominates tablets market • Pro - 5x growth in 2012 • Con - Fragmentation • Is Galaxy Note a phone or a tablet?Saturday, May 19, 12
  • Rise of Android 850,000!! (device activations per day)Saturday, May 19, 12
  • Android Fragmentation 1 Source: http://mashable.com/2012/05/16/android-fragmentation-graphic/Saturday, May 19, 12
  • Android Fragmentation 2 Source: http://mashable.com/2012/05/16/android-fragmentation-graphic/Saturday, May 19, 12
  • ?Saturday, May 19, 12
  • HTC Titan -- $0.01 Never count MS out. They do s*** like this.Saturday, May 19, 12
  • Devs rush to mobile Like crazed lemmings... (but maybe you’re this guy?)Saturday, May 19, 12
  • Big social companies moving to Mobile Zynga, wooga, 6waves, King.com, Crowdstar, Disney...Saturday, May 19, 12
  • [Browser] Social Maturity • Maturity = harder to succeed from standing start • Fighting over scraps • Park research suggests “exit or sell” in SocialSaturday, May 19, 12
  • We ‘Midcore’Saturday, May 19, 12
  • Bottom line... If you are considering a switch to mobile, you are not alone, and you game better be...Saturday, May 19, 12
  • Free-2-Play...yay or nay? Some wise-ass subtitleSaturday, May 19, 12
  • Free 2 Play Economics • % of Mau paying - 3.5%-10% conversion • ARPDAU = $.04 - $.05 • $8 - $15/mo ARPPU • In game purchases are ~55% of total game revenue • 90% of games spending is F2P todaySaturday, May 19, 12
  • Free 2 Play Lifecycle 1Saturday, May 19, 12
  • Free 2 Play Lifecycle 2Saturday, May 19, 12
  • F2P Realities • F2P is expensive, time consuming, and hard • It requires constant and ongoing attention • There is a steep learning curve • Experience with service-based F2P games (such as online-social) is a major advantage • When it works, it works really, really wellSaturday, May 19, 12
  • Platform Schmatform Who cares, just let me play!Saturday, May 19, 12
  • Platform Agnosticism • 50%+ consumers play mobile games to extend/continue their gameplay experience from other platforms (newzoo) • Players & Designers thinking less about platform and more about unified UEX • Middleware providing roads to both technical and marketing access to many platformsSaturday, May 19, 12
  • Dude, where’s my app? Distribution & DiscoverSaturday, May 19, 12
  • Appstore Evolution • Google Android Marketplace and renames it “Google Play” • Facebook Launches Appstore • Zynga appstore?Saturday, May 19, 12
  • Customer Acquisition (It’s complicated)Saturday, May 19, 12
  • Download Motivations Reasons to download mobile game Russians rely on friends, Americans go for price (2011) • Americans go by price • Russians rely on friends and download new releases • Know what motivates Game Ag your audience when picking your strategy & Source: 2011 Newzoo Consumer Research | Newzoo Data Explorer partners Newzoo Trend Report | Mobile Games | March 2012Saturday, May 19, 12
  • The Bleeding Edge New Tech Game-ChangersSaturday, May 19, 12
  • mmm....Ice Cream Sandwich • Android 4.0 is finally rolling out • Impacts phones more than tablets • It’s a much better user experience • Fixes some annoying technical issues • Double-edged fragmentation grenadeSaturday, May 19, 12
  • • Feature limited • Browser performance concerns • Not useful on Android < 4.0 • But - wow - when it works...it’s really cool • Possible game-changer for certain types of gamesSaturday, May 19, 12
  • Connected ScreensSaturday, May 19, 12
  • Thank You David Nixon, david@geminihive.com Don’t forget to play Vector for Online & Mobile!Saturday, May 19, 12
  • Payor Demographic Notes Mobile game payors could be women or men (slightly more likely to be men) and 10 - 35 y/o Asian players are 2x more likely to pay!Saturday, May 19, 12
  • Design Challenges Today’s mobile devices are feature-richSaturday, May 19, 12
  • Anatomy of a SmartphoneSaturday, May 19, 12
  • Design • Multitouch • Spotty internet connection • Location services • To tilt or not to tilt • CamerasSaturday, May 19, 12