The Next Big ThingSaturday, May 19, 12
My Profile                       • Making games professionally since 1989                       • Worked in hardcore, casua...
Thank You Nekki!                            Video, images and logos (c) Nekki, 2012Saturday, May 19, 12
Bullet Points    •      Games are no longer the most used apps!    •      1,000,000 New Smartphone installs daily, Android...
Battle for “time spent”                 Another category of apps gives us a run for our moneySaturday, May 19, 12
Mobile Social Networking!Saturday, May 19, 12
Tough Competition                       • 5 Major players - 2,000,000,000 people                       • FB/Instagram - $1...
The “Silver Lining”                       • Total minutes are up (77 vs 68)                       • SN’s are strong enable...
The Smartphone                       Revolution is upon us                  Unless you’ve been asleep for 2 years, this sh...
“Smart Device”                               Growth                       • 100,000,000+ US smartphone gamers             ...
It’s global                                • Growth in every                                     major market             ...
IoS vs. Android         •       2x growth in 2012         •       Ipad still dominates                 tablets market     ...
Rise of Android                       850,000!!                          (device activations per day)Saturday, May 19, 12
Android Fragmentation 1                       Source: http://mashable.com/2012/05/16/android-fragmentation-graphic/Saturda...
Android Fragmentation 2                       Source: http://mashable.com/2012/05/16/android-fragmentation-graphic/Saturda...
?Saturday, May 19, 12
HTC Titan -- $0.01                       Never count MS out.                       They do s*** like this.Saturday, May 19...
Devs rush to mobile                           Like crazed lemmings...                                                     ...
Big social companies                        moving to Mobile        Zynga, wooga, 6waves, King.com, Crowdstar, Disney...Sa...
[Browser] Social Maturity            • Maturity = harder to                   succeed from standing                   star...
We   ‘Midcore’Saturday, May 19, 12
Bottom line...               If you are considering a switch to mobile, you               are not alone, and you game bett...
Free-2-Play...yay or nay?                         Some wise-ass subtitleSaturday, May 19, 12
Free 2 Play Economics                       • % of Mau paying - 3.5%-10% conversion                       • ARPDAU = $.04 ...
Free 2 Play Lifecycle 1Saturday, May 19, 12
Free 2 Play Lifecycle 2Saturday, May 19, 12
F2P Realities                       • F2P is expensive, time consuming, and hard                       • It requires const...
Platform Schmatform                           Who cares, just let me play!Saturday, May 19, 12
Platform Agnosticism                       • 50%+ consumers play mobile games to                         extend/continue t...
Dude, where’s my app?                            Distribution & DiscoverSaturday, May 19, 12
Appstore Evolution                       • Google Android Marketplace and                         renames it “Google Play”...
Customer Acquisition                             (It’s complicated)Saturday, May 19, 12
Download Motivations           Reasons to download mobile game                                                      Russia...
The Bleeding Edge                          New Tech Game-ChangersSaturday, May 19, 12
mmm....Ice Cream Sandwich          • Android 4.0 is finally rolling out          • Impacts phones more than tablets        ...
• Feature limited       • Browser performance concerns       • Not useful on Android < 4.0       • But - wow - when it wor...
Connected ScreensSaturday, May 19, 12
Thank You         David Nixon, david@geminihive.com                                             Don’t forget to play      ...
Payor Demographic Notes                       Mobile game payors could be women or men                       (slightly mor...
Design Challenges                       Today’s mobile devices are feature-richSaturday, May 19, 12
Anatomy of a                       SmartphoneSaturday, May 19, 12
Design                       • Multitouch                       • Spotty internet connection                       • Locat...
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Mobile games: The Next Big Thing (by David Nixon).

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David Nixon:
• Making games professionally since 1989
• Worked in hardcore, casual, social, mobile
• Shipped hundreds of games
• Passion for Eastern European devs
• Co-Founder “Gemini Hive Inc.”

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Mobile games: The Next Big Thing (by David Nixon).

  1. 1. The Next Big ThingSaturday, May 19, 12
  2. 2. My Profile • Making games professionally since 1989 • Worked in hardcore, casual, social, mobile • Shipped hundreds of games • Passion for Eastern European devs • Co-Founder “Gemini Hive Inc.”Saturday, May 19, 12
  3. 3. Thank You Nekki! Video, images and logos (c) Nekki, 2012Saturday, May 19, 12
  4. 4. Bullet Points • Games are no longer the most used apps! • 1,000,000 New Smartphone installs daily, Android is CRUSHING • “Gold rush” to mobile • Free 2 Play might be winning the monetization race • Platform agnosticism is becoming a religion • Big companies spending Big $ to solve the “Discovery Problem” • New ideas, use cases, tech keeps comingSaturday, May 19, 12
  5. 5. Battle for “time spent” Another category of apps gives us a run for our moneySaturday, May 19, 12
  6. 6. Mobile Social Networking!Saturday, May 19, 12
  7. 7. Tough Competition • 5 Major players - 2,000,000,000 people • FB/Instagram - $1,000,000,000 is alot of green • FB IPO - $16,000,000,000 is a TON of green • GREE, Mixi, DeNA, Tencent blanket Asia with nearly 600,000,000 users and all these co’s are tight with the carriersSaturday, May 19, 12
  8. 8. The “Silver Lining” • Total minutes are up (77 vs 68) • SN’s are strong enablers for game features • SN introduce and habituate device features • Natural partnerships / overlap • Money to burnSaturday, May 19, 12
  9. 9. The Smartphone Revolution is upon us Unless you’ve been asleep for 2 years, this shouldn’t be a surprise to youSaturday, May 19, 12
  10. 10. “Smart Device” Growth • 100,000,000+ US smartphone gamers • 10 BILLION by 2020Saturday, May 19, 12
  11. 11. It’s global • Growth in every major market • Half of predicted consumption growth is in Asia • Freemium helps confront piracy problemsSaturday, May 19, 12
  12. 12. IoS vs. Android • 2x growth in 2012 • Ipad still dominates tablets market • Pro - 5x growth in 2012 • Con - Fragmentation • Is Galaxy Note a phone or a tablet?Saturday, May 19, 12
  13. 13. Rise of Android 850,000!! (device activations per day)Saturday, May 19, 12
  14. 14. Android Fragmentation 1 Source: http://mashable.com/2012/05/16/android-fragmentation-graphic/Saturday, May 19, 12
  15. 15. Android Fragmentation 2 Source: http://mashable.com/2012/05/16/android-fragmentation-graphic/Saturday, May 19, 12
  16. 16. ?Saturday, May 19, 12
  17. 17. HTC Titan -- $0.01 Never count MS out. They do s*** like this.Saturday, May 19, 12
  18. 18. Devs rush to mobile Like crazed lemmings... (but maybe you’re this guy?)Saturday, May 19, 12
  19. 19. Big social companies moving to Mobile Zynga, wooga, 6waves, King.com, Crowdstar, Disney...Saturday, May 19, 12
  20. 20. [Browser] Social Maturity • Maturity = harder to succeed from standing start • Fighting over scraps • Park research suggests “exit or sell” in SocialSaturday, May 19, 12
  21. 21. We ‘Midcore’Saturday, May 19, 12
  22. 22. Bottom line... If you are considering a switch to mobile, you are not alone, and you game better be...Saturday, May 19, 12
  23. 23. Free-2-Play...yay or nay? Some wise-ass subtitleSaturday, May 19, 12
  24. 24. Free 2 Play Economics • % of Mau paying - 3.5%-10% conversion • ARPDAU = $.04 - $.05 • $8 - $15/mo ARPPU • In game purchases are ~55% of total game revenue • 90% of games spending is F2P todaySaturday, May 19, 12
  25. 25. Free 2 Play Lifecycle 1Saturday, May 19, 12
  26. 26. Free 2 Play Lifecycle 2Saturday, May 19, 12
  27. 27. F2P Realities • F2P is expensive, time consuming, and hard • It requires constant and ongoing attention • There is a steep learning curve • Experience with service-based F2P games (such as online-social) is a major advantage • When it works, it works really, really wellSaturday, May 19, 12
  28. 28. Platform Schmatform Who cares, just let me play!Saturday, May 19, 12
  29. 29. Platform Agnosticism • 50%+ consumers play mobile games to extend/continue their gameplay experience from other platforms (newzoo) • Players & Designers thinking less about platform and more about unified UEX • Middleware providing roads to both technical and marketing access to many platformsSaturday, May 19, 12
  30. 30. Dude, where’s my app? Distribution & DiscoverSaturday, May 19, 12
  31. 31. Appstore Evolution • Google Android Marketplace and renames it “Google Play” • Facebook Launches Appstore • Zynga appstore?Saturday, May 19, 12
  32. 32. Customer Acquisition (It’s complicated)Saturday, May 19, 12
  33. 33. Download Motivations Reasons to download mobile game Russians rely on friends, Americans go for price (2011) • Americans go by price • Russians rely on friends and download new releases • Know what motivates Game Ag your audience when picking your strategy & Source: 2011 Newzoo Consumer Research | Newzoo Data Explorer partners Newzoo Trend Report | Mobile Games | March 2012Saturday, May 19, 12
  34. 34. The Bleeding Edge New Tech Game-ChangersSaturday, May 19, 12
  35. 35. mmm....Ice Cream Sandwich • Android 4.0 is finally rolling out • Impacts phones more than tablets • It’s a much better user experience • Fixes some annoying technical issues • Double-edged fragmentation grenadeSaturday, May 19, 12
  36. 36. • Feature limited • Browser performance concerns • Not useful on Android < 4.0 • But - wow - when it works...it’s really cool • Possible game-changer for certain types of gamesSaturday, May 19, 12
  37. 37. Connected ScreensSaturday, May 19, 12
  38. 38. Thank You David Nixon, david@geminihive.com Don’t forget to play Vector for Online & Mobile!Saturday, May 19, 12
  39. 39. Payor Demographic Notes Mobile game payors could be women or men (slightly more likely to be men) and 10 - 35 y/o Asian players are 2x more likely to pay!Saturday, May 19, 12
  40. 40. Design Challenges Today’s mobile devices are feature-richSaturday, May 19, 12
  41. 41. Anatomy of a SmartphoneSaturday, May 19, 12
  42. 42. Design • Multitouch • Spotty internet connection • Location services • To tilt or not to tilt • CamerasSaturday, May 19, 12
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