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Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
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Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12

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1- Horizon Scanning approaches and links to EEA's FLIS (Forward Looking Information and Services) and Global Megatrends …

1- Horizon Scanning approaches and links to EEA's FLIS (Forward Looking Information and Services) and Global Megatrends
2 - Long-term Future of the Portuguese Economy - a Scenario Building Process

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  • 1. 1- Horizon Scanning approachesand links to FLIS and GlobalMegatrends2 - Long-term Future of thePortuguese Economy - a ScenarioBuilding ProcessDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 2. ?DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 3. Horizon Scanning approaches andlinks to FLIS and Global MegatrendsDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 4. The DPP Horizon Scanning ProjectDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 5. The DPP Horizon Scanning Project is a systematicprocess of identification, categorization and analysisof information, enabling monitoring and warning oftrends, potential paradigm shifts, disruptions andemerging issues. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 6. The project aims to be useful for different objectives,applications and users, encouraging them to betteranticipate and understand the external environmentand how it interacts with and influences their policiesand strategic decisions. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 7. The overall objective of the DPP Horizon Scanningproject is to improve DPP’s ability to participate andlead processes based on anticipation and preparationfor new challenges, risks and opportunities. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 8. The project seeks to achieve a set of more specificobjectives: • Monitoring of critical issues • Reporting on emerging issues • Conducting Benchmarking activities • Analysis of opportunities and risks for new activities/industries and/or regions • Technology monitoring and foresight • Foster creativity and capitalize on new ideas • Accelerate organizational learning and agility • Foster networking (national and international) DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 9. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 10. Project Outputs• Scanning Documents on trends, megatrends, uncertainties, weak signals and wildcards (organized according to project taxonomy)• Scanning Database supported by Personal Brain mind mapping software• Production of inputs for the organisation of Scenario´s workshops, Trend Analysis, Delphi’s, among others• Production of inputs for the elaboration of articles, reports and working papers DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 11. DPP Scanning DocsDPP Scanning Docs are a continuously updated set of documents which organize, categorize and analyzedrivers of change (megatrends, trends, uncertainties, weak signals and wild cards) according to a specifictaxonomy (Economy, Industries, Politics, Geopolitics, Environment, Territory, Energy, Business, Society, Health and Technology). www.dpp.pt/pt/HorizonScanning/scanning-docs/Paginas/default.aspxDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 12. DPP Scanning Doc Template1. Category: classification according to type of driver of change: megatrend, trend, uncertainty, weak signal or wild card2. Date: document elaboration date3. Theme: classification according to DPP HS Project Taxonomy4. Description: brief presentation and description of the topic/driver of change5. Keywords: significant words capable of describing the topic/driver of change6. Indicators: warning signs that may indicate that the driver of change is growing/declining/stopping7. Impacts: brief description of impacts, intensity, areas and points of impact. (Intensity assessed according to scale: very high, high, medium, low, very low)8. Degree of Exposure: assess to what extent and in which way is the system (context/external environment) prepared for the impact of the driver of change9. Drivers and Inhibitors: any factors which may act either in the direction of acceleration / increase in the likelihood of occurrence / development of the driver of change (driver) or towards a slowing / reversal / decrease in the likelihood of occurrence / cessation of the driver of change (inhibitor)10. Main Actors/Stakeholders: Identification and brief description of the actors/stakeholders that set the present and may influence the future evolution of the driver of change identified11. Time Frame: when is it more plausible that the event / development occurs. Period of time elapsed until the different impacts (Section 7) are felt (immediately, up to 1 year, 1 to 5 years, 5 to 9 years, 10 to 19 years, more than 20 years)12. Likelihood: subjective evaluation of the probability of emergence / development / cessation of driver of change (scale: very high, high, medium, low, very low)13. Sources: identification and classification of the sources with date of publication and, if possible, the relevant internet link. Fonts are classified according to the following typology: (1) fringe, (2) mainstream or (3) expert DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 13. DPP Scanning DatabaseDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 14. DPP Scanning DBDPP Scanning DB is a continuously updated dynamicdatabase, supported by specific software for viewing and organizing information. www.dpp.pt/pt/HorizonScanning/Paginas/Scanning-DB.aspxDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 15. FLIS and Global MegatrendsDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 16. Global Megatrend Increasing global divergence in population trendsDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 17. State of ArtA Growing population with divergent pathsAsians still dominate the world’s population;Africans keep growing and Europeans are Latin America and North America Caribbean Oceaniaclearly in a reduction model Africa Europe Asia Stabilization Growth 60% of Europe’s populationDifferent evolutions: If African’s fertility growth depends on UK and France would surpassrates keep current rhythm, Africa will migration flows (2010), Germany’shave 3 billion INTERNACIONAISin E2050 and 15 E RELAÇÕES people DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA PLANEAMENTO indicating a natural population in 2050billion in 2100 Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território population contraction Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 18. State of ArtA Growing population with divergent pathsYoung people represent the largest percentage of population in emergent anddeveloping countries, but there are different political and social realities, namelyin matter of gender.
  • 19. trend “AsiaTown” trend “Moving East” trend Demographic divergence trend Medium-sizeDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO citiesE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 20. Potential ImplicationsDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 21. As emergent countries evolve largely supported by a youthful society, with an ascending middle class and characterized by unprecedented urban growth and influence, developed countries go old and seek immigrants to assure competitiveness and economic growth. Migrations flows as a compensation factor for demographic agingDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 22. by 2050, we expectabout two-thirds ofthe world’s people tobe living in cities.Now the increase inthe number of citydwellers, between2000 and 2050 isexpected to beabout three billionpeople, which wasthe total populationof the Earth in 1960.
  • 23. This demographic gap imposes a global challenge to the planet:DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 24. The divergence in demographic trends is a major factor in the evolution of five major drivers of global development: urbanization mobility energy water biodiversityDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 25. Drivers biodiversity mobility urbanization energy water "In 1950, there were three times as many Europeans as sub-Saharan Africans. By 2100, there will be five sub-Saharan Africans for every European” DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO • (Joel Cohen, October 2011) E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 26. Divergence in population trends: impacts and uncertainties uncertainty: collaborative world? • 75% of biological biodiversity species could disappear biodiversity in a 300 to 2000 years Uncertainty: • Indian populationmobility • Today, 3,5 billion Urbanization impacts on surpasses mobility world urbanization Chinese in 2020 geopolitics people live in • Africans surpass and migration cities; in 2050 they Indians in 2040 flows? will be 6,3 billion Uncertainty: urban conflits? • Impacts of • Technological capacity energy water urbanization in water Uncertainty: deeply stressed uncertainty: • Natural limits areas water paradigm energy • Climate change scarcity and • Societal change change or effects conflicts? (de)growth’ s model?
  • 27. In the case of the urbanization process that has accelerated in recent years, translated into the fact that half the world’s population live in cities, the future will maintain the trend of intensification of urban areas, which poses an enormous challenge in terms of reconciling people with more sustainable management of resources, financial and natural resources such as energy and water.DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 28. The rise of the middle class and consumer power in the cities of developing countries is an opportunity for the growth of global activities, especially services such as those associated with ICT, particularly telecommunications as well as the expanding market for activities that are going through stagnation/contraction within the more developed world, such as infrastructure construction.DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 29. Therefore, this divergence in demographic trendscontains a challenge for the future urban form, with theeventual collapse of the megacity and the emergenceof a new wave of medium-sized cities which, takentogether, justify 40% of global growth in 2025according to the McKinsey Report “Urban World:Mapping the economic power of cities” (March, 2011).DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 30. VulnerabilitiesDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 31. The expansion of cities and the middle class in emergingeconomiesThe population of the developing countries represents 80%of the world and, according to the latest UN estimates, 97%of current population growth is justified by emergingcountries, where young people have significant weight (31%versus 18% in developed countries).In terms of purchasing power, there is a strong asymmetrybetween emerging and developed countries, but the growthof the middle class in emerging economies tends to be high -two billion people could "win" the status by 2030, withprofound implications in consumption habits, use ofresources and political pressure. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 32. Increasing pressure on natural resourcesWill the planet have a capacity for more than two billion peopleby mid-century? Taking food production only, according to FAO,it would have to increase 70% over current levels, yet theongoing technological investment may be insufficient to ensurethis objective. The scarcity of arable agricultural land is a risk,particularly in emerging countries, where the process ofindustrialization and urbanization affects more land for citybuilding. The scarcity of water resources, including drinkingwater affects two billion people and consumption is expected toincrease by 50% until 2025 in developing countries, at a timewhen over half the globe may have interruptions in water supply. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 33. Aging in developed countriesThe trend towards an aging population seems irreversible,and currently, more than 80 countries, representing 42% ofthe world’s population, have a fertility level below thenatural replacement rate (2.1 children per woman). The trendis most marked in Europe and Japan, which may lose half ofits population by 2100. The impacts - in terms of demand forhealth care are foreseeable, increasing financial pressure onsocial security systems and, therefore, questioning thewestern social model, but at the same time creatingopportunities for activities related to geriatrics and seniortourism. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 34. Drivers and InhibitorsDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 35. Drivers • Industrialization, urbanization and motorization in emerging countries • Scarcity of natural resources • Energy and Food Insecurity • Expansion of middle class in emergent economies; • Aging population in developed countries • Continuing crisis in western countriesDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 36. Inhibitors • Change in energy paradigm; • Rise of emerging countries in value chains relating to technology activities; • Technology transfer from developed to emerging / less developed countries; • Migration flowsDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 37. Main Actors/StakehodersDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 38. We can distinguish three main groups:• developing countries, with high rates of population growth;• the middle-income countries, undergoing demographic stabilization but more dynamic in domestic migration flows (from rural to urban areas; from urban centers to the peripheries, and abroad), with risks of social exclusion and unemployment;• the high-income countries with an aging population, where the challenge is the ability to integrate people.The major Asian economies are key players in the world demographic trends. In2025, more than 1.6 billion Asians will live in cities. China and South Asiaaccount for 90% of Asian population growth and 60% of the global urbanpopulation growth between 2007 and 2025.China and India are at the heart of this transformation - GDP per capita inurban India is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 9% (China, 10%). DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 39. Implications for PortugalDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 40. Portugal is among the developed countries, a clear example ofaging, with the 2nd lowest fertility rate in the world (1.3 children)for 2010-2015, along with Austria and Malta, and just behindBosnia-Herzegovina ( 1.1 children).The Portuguese population is expected to start declining in 2014,losing about 4 million inhabitants by 2100, taking into accountthe "average" scenario of the United Nations; if the evolution isis the least favorable, the loss of the resident population inPortugal could reach 7 million people by the end of the century.This trend has been offset precisely by immigration, consideringthe last census held in 2011, especially in the coastal zone of thecapital and the Algarve region, but the majority of the territoryshows signs of shrinking population. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 41. Zoom PortugalNatural and migrationcontraction (-4,8;-1,7)Natural contraction and positive Natural and migration positivesimmigration (-2,3;7) (3,8;25)
  • 42. Long-term Future of the Portuguese Economy Authors Department of Foresight and Planning a Scenario Building and International Affairs António Alvarenga (coordination) Process Paulo Carvalho (coordination up to May 2011) Ângela Lobo Catarina Rogado Fátima Azevedo Miguel Déjean Guerra Sofia Rodrigues With the collaboration of: Manuela Proença Ana Maria Dias DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 43. • Intro • The workshops and their inputs • The written ScenariosDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 44. • Intro • The workshops and their inputs • The written ScenariosDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 45. » Work developed by DPP within the scope of Project “HybCO2: Hybrid approachesto evaluate the economic, environmental and technological impact of long-term lowcarbon scenarios – the Portuguese case”, co-financed by the “Fundação para aCiência e Tecnologia” (FCT).» The project started in 2010 and is being developed together with “Faculdade deCiências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa” (FCT-UNL) and “InstitutoSuperior de Economia e Gestão” (ISEG).» HyBCO2 general goals: assessment of the implications of long-term carbonreduction Scenarios through the development and comparison of two hybrid tools.» Taking the Portuguese economy until 2050 as a case study, two hybrid tools arebeing developed: the HYBGED model and the HYBTEP platform. Based onScenarios that explore possible socio-economic paths for Portugal up to 2050, thetwo hybrid tools will be used to assess the cost effectiveness of the possibilities ofgreenhouse gas emissions (GHG emissions) reduction and its effects on prices,production and family income as well as on economic well-being.» More information about the HybCO2 project on its official website:http://hybco2.cense.fct.unl.pt/. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 46. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 47. Long-term Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy Roadmap DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 48. • Intro • The workshops and their inputs • The written ScenariosDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 49. DPP Horizon Scanning e Cenários Cenários, Reflexões e Planos Estratégicos de Longo Prazo em Portugal http://www.dpp.pt/Lists/Pesquisa%20Avanada/Attachments/3088/Compilacao_Cenarios_Portugal.pdf Projectos Internacionais de Cenárioshttp://www.dpp.pt/Lists/Pesquisa%20Avanada/Attachments/3089/Compilacao_Projectos_Internacionais.p df Colecção de Cenários Globais – Selecção e Análise de Projectos Internacionais de Cenários http://www.dpp.pt/Lists/Pesquisa%20Avanada/Attachments/3214/Coleccao_Cenarios_Globais.pdf DPP Scanning Docs http://www.dpp.pt/pt/HorizonScanning/scanning-docs/Paginas/default.aspx
  • 50. Workshop Global Scenarios 2050KEY UNCERTAINTIES AND POSSIBLE SCENARIO STRUCTURES 8th November 2010 Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian Lisboa DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério do Ambiente e do Ordenamento do Território
  • 51. Global Scenarios 2050 WorkshopDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 52. • Context-specific approach• Project, methodology (and even tool) design DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 53. Methods and Tools: more flexible, intuitive andlighter Strategy and Management • SWOT analysisForesight • Balanced Scorecard• Scenario Planning/Thinking (intuitive-logics: SHELL, GBN, SRI, • Gap Analysis • Core Competencies • Wind Tunnelingetc; Porter) • Activity System • Implications and options• Trend Analysis • Business Idea • Finantial Analysis• Environmental Scanning • 5 Forces • Strategic Conversation• Futures Wheels • Strategic Groups • Strategic Choice Structuring• Futures Accelerator© • Value-chain • Real Options• Visions Competition© • End Game Analysis • Enterprise Value Map• Incasting • Key Strategic Factors • Strat Bridge• Future Workshops (future conferences) / Internal Factors of CompetitivenessActors• Stakeholder Analysis• Strategic Groups (workshop version; adaptation)• Role Plays Methods and Tools: more analitical and heavierInnovation and Creativity• Strategic Deep • Ideas Combat© • Scenario Planning (La Prospective, Mathematic/ProbabilisticDives (IDEO) • Innovators Solution Modeling)• Mind Mapping • Six Hats (de Bono) • Delphi• Brainstorming • Po (de Bono) • Structural Analysis (MICMAC)• Brainwriting • Mobility Vip Cards • Analysis of the “Actors’ Game” (MACTOR)• Focus Groups • Idea Boxes • Morphological Analysis (MORPHOL)•Storytelling • Random Word • Smic-Prob-Expert / Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) • Trend Impact Analysis (TIA)Competitive Intelligence • Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)• Competitive Blindspots • Patent Analysis• War Games• Competitive Benchmarking & Tactical Analysis Alvarenga,• Early Warning (Weak signals) Management Systems Carvalho, 2009• Benchmarking Studies DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO DEPARTAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 54. A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY I Workshop methodology: an adaptation (of a section) of theintuitive-logics scenario-building approach
  • 55. The future will result from the interaction between Megatrends coming from the past and shaping the future, WeakSignals or issues at an embrionary stage of development, Wildcards that mightsurprise us in a positive or negative way, and Structural Uncertainties that mighttake us not just for one but for a plurality of possible futures.
  • 56. Strategic Focus Time horizon Trends Megatrends Weak Signals KEY CONCEPTS Uncertainties / Wildcards Key UncertaintiesStructures, systems Visions / Scenarios and heuristics “Intents”
  • 57. Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho António Alvarenga Catarina Rogado Sofia Rodrigues Miguel Guerra DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério do Ambiente e do Ordenamento do Território
  • 58. Júlia Seixas Manuel Mira Godinho Ana Maria Fernandes António Manzoni António de Melo Pires Manuela Proença Ângela Lobo Miguel Duarte Pereira Guta Moura Guedes Miguel Monjardino Helena Cordeiro Natalino Martins João Caraça Nuno Ribeiro da Silva José Emílio Amaral Gomes Pedro MoreiraJosé Maria Brandão de Brito Roberto Carneiro Luís Campos e Cunha Stephan Magnus Luís Nazaré Vítor Bento Jorge Marrão João Ferrão Maria da Luz Correia Miguel St Aubyn Patríc ia Fortes
  • 59. Choosing Key Uncertainties
  • 60. 14 Key Uncertainties
  • 61. Four Global Critical Uncertainties selected by theParticipants in the “Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop” Disruptive Emergence of a New Technology Paradigm Incremental Coexistence Religion Conflict “Flat” Globalization “Mega-countries” Western Ideas Rule(s) Setting New Paradigm; “Merge" DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 62. ScenarioStructures
  • 63. 3 Scenario Matrixes(12 potential Scenarios – initial exploration)DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 64. WorkshopsLong-term socio-economic Scenarios for Portugal 27th April and 4th May 2011 Casa do Ambiente e do Cidadão, Lisboa DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério do Ambiente e do Ordenamento do Território
  • 65. Scenarios for Portugal 2050 WorkshopDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 66. Timeline
  • 67. The final version of the Timeline already benefiting from the reactions and suggestions of the workshop attendees, was also published under the form of DPP Insights with the title “Timeline: A Economia Portuguesa no Contexto Global” (Alvarenga & Rogado, 2011). Both the compilation and a first version of the Timeline played a core role in the preparation and implementation of the “Scenarios for Portugal 2050” workshops and of the contents analysed.DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 68. What might define the future? What will remain? Structural limitations? What can project Portugal?
  • 69. Strategic Focus Time horizon Trends Megatrends Weak Signals KEY CONCEPTS Uncertainties / Wildcards Key UncertaintiesStructures, systems Visions / Scenarios and heuristics “Intents”
  • 70. 10 Uncertainties(in depthscanning2 » “inputs for discussion”)
  • 71. 1 2 3 4 Evolução do Perfil de Posição e Função de Preferências e Apostas ao ConectividadeEspecialização da Economia Portugal no Sistema nível dos Relacionamentos (Física e Digital) Portuguesa Internacional de Transportes Geoeconómicos por parte de Portugal na e Logística dos Poderes Públicos e Economia Global (Padrão de Actividades Investidores Portugueses Exportadoras) 5 6 Padrão de Urbanizaçãoe Organização do Território PORTUGAL 2050 Evolução das Soluções/ Plataformas Energéticas e INCERTEZAS POTENCIAIS de Mobilidade 7 8 9 10 Evolução do Modelo de Tipologia e Papel das Intensidade, Impactos Evolução dos Sistemas de Coesão Social Português Cidades e Gestão do(s) Ensino e Formação em no Desenvolvimento do País Envelhecimento(s) da Portugal (Mercado Trabalho; Ensino e População em Portugal Formação; Protecção Social; (Qualidade, eficiência, eficácia, Saúde) (Ligação com Sistemas de …) Pensões e de Saúde)
  • 72. 10 Uncertainties (co-built » shared)
  • 73. Working with Uncertainties and Configurations
  • 74. 1 2 3 4 Evolution of the Structure and Financial Sustainability of the Political System Model Institutional Capacity Building of Specialisation of the Portuguese Portuguese Economy the Portuguese Economy and Economy Society• Exporting activities and internationalisation • External imbalances • Evolution of democracy• Position in the value chains of goods and • National debt + private debt • Attractiveness of other solutions • Evolution and credibility of the institutions services traded internationally • Ability and promptness in solving financial • Social capital• Insertion in the international division of imbalances labour. 6 5 Strategic Leadership and Pro- Cultural Values and Ability to Generate Social Capital PORTUGAL 2050 activity of the Economic Agents• Cultural changes POTENTIAL UNCERTAINTIES • Political System • Alignment and mobilisation of the players• Confidence • Strategic vision and quality of governance• Individual benefit vs. collective benefit• Capacity of innovation and societal change (Workshop 2) 7 8 9 10Evolution of the Portuguese social Typology and Role of the Cities in Generational Uncertainty - how is Evolution of the Education and cohesion model Spatial Planning the next generation going to live? Training Systems in Portugal • Territorial cohesion • Generational conflicts • Human capital• Redistributive mechanisms • Dynamics of urbanisation • Generational cohesion and solidarity • Quality and efficiency of the systems• Labour market • Networks of cities • Connection and harmony with the labour• Education and Training market• Social protection • Training throughout life• Health
  • 75. Focus on high added value products Evolution of the Structure and Focus on the industry and in sectors of undifferentiated products with1 Specialisation of the low profit margins Portuguese Economy Dualist Model – Mix of the two previous models Deterioration of the external accounts and of the budget imbalances - “THE HOLE” Financial2 Sustainability of Portugal Improvement of the financial and economic governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 76. Decentralised, participatory and open Democracy (including new forms of representation) Political System3 Model and State Configuration Autocratic, probably centralised and/or devolved Centralised democracy, the State configuration with a tendency to be a provider Institutional renewal; efficacy and efficiency Institutional Capacity Building of the4 Portuguese Economy Institutional degradation and SocietyDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 77. Perpetuation of the current cultural values and social capital (Business- as-Usual); low confidence levels in the civil society Cultural Values and Capacity for reversing the current situation by creating social capital5 Ability to Generate Social Capital (endogenously created); a more entrepreneurial society Capacity for reversing the current situation by creating social capital, imposed from abroad; less profound change than the previous configuration; adaptive evolution Absence of vision and quality in managing the public interest, keeping the erratic nature of governance – “THE SPANISH INN” Strategic Leadership Technical quality in managing the public interest, stability trust – “SUNNY6 and Pro-activity of the Economic Agents ROAD”DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 78. Adaptive evolution regarding the European standard Evolution of the7 Portuguese Social Cohesion Model Social model that can become reinforced Rupture of the current cohesion model; fragmentation (for instance: working in Portugal with labour contracts subject to another country’s jurisdiction) Urbanisation reinforcement with the increase of conflicts within the city Typology and Role of Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but8 the Cities in Spatial Planning disaggregated from the rest of the territory Stabilisation of the urban dimension with an urban-rural partnershipDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 79. Coexistence – two parallel worlds, two different generations with no interaction Generational Uncertainty (how Conflicts due to values, practices and dependence relations;9 the next generation generational conflict is going to live) Cohesion – intercultural differences as a source of new practices and knowledge Increase in the quality and importance of the production and transmission of knowledge Evolution of the Education and Reduction in the quality and importance of the production and10 Training Systems in transmission of knowledge Portugal DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 80. The next task was based, in methodological terms, on Morphological Analysis. It departed from the Critical Uncertainties and respective Configurations to the building of the Base Structures of “Portugal Scenarios 2050”. A table with the Critical Uncertainties and defined Configurations was distributed and the participants, organised in working groups, were asked to select combinations of configurations of the Critical Uncertainties in order to obtain two distinct Scenario StructuresDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 81. A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY II an adaptation of theMorphological Analysis logic to an workshop/participatory context.
  • 82. Portugal 13 Points – SUF+ Portugal 18 Points – Very Good Focus on industry and on sectors of Focus on industry and on sectors of Dualist Model – Mix of the two Dualist Model – Mix of the twoFocus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low Focus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low previous models previous models margins margins Deterioration of external accounts Deterioration of external accounts Improvement of financial and economic Improvement of financial and and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE” and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE” governance – “FÉNIX” economic governance – “FÉNIX” HOLE” HOLE” Decentralised, participatory and Centralised democracy, the State Decentralised, participatory and open Centralised democracy, the State Autocratic, probably centralised and/or Autocratic, probably centralised open Democracy (including new configuration with a tendency to be a Democracy (including new forms of configuration with a tendency to be a decentralised and/or decentralised forms of representation) provider representation) provider Institutional renewal; efficacy and Institutional renewal; efficacy and Institutional degradation Institutional degradation efficiency efficiency Capacity for reversing the current Capacity for reversing the currentPerpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current situation by creating social capital, situation by creating social capital,values and social capital (Business- situation by creating social capital values and social capital (Business-as- situation by creating social capital imposed abroad; less profound imposed abroad; less profound as-Usual); low confidence levels in (endogenously created); a more Usual); low confidence levels in the (endogenously created); a more change than the previous change than the previous the civil society entrepreneurial society civil society entrepreneurial society configuration; adaptive evolution configuration; adaptive evolution Absence of vision and quality in Absence of vision and quality in Technical quality in managing the Technical quality in managing the managing the public interest, managing the public interest, keeping public interest, stability trust – “SUNNY public interest, stability trust – keeping the erratic nature of the erratic nature of governance – ROAD” “SUNNY ROAD” governance – “THE SPANISH INN” “THE SPANISH INN” Rupture of the current cohesion Rupture of the current cohesion model; fragmentation (for instance: model; fragmentation (for instance: Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become working in Portugal with labour working in Portugal with labour European standard reinforced European standard reinforced contracts subject to another country’s contracts subject to another country’s jurisdiction) jurisdiction) Urbanisation reinforcement with the Urbanisation reinforcement with theUrbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership territory territory Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and interaction conflict knowledge interaction conflict knowledge Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 83. Decline Affirmation Focus on industry and on sectors of Focus on industry and on sectors of Dualist Model – Mix of the two Dualist Model – Mix of the twoFocus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low Focus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low previous models previous models margins margins Deterioration of external accounts Deterioration of external accounts Improvement of financial and Improvement of financial and and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE” and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE” economic governance – “FÉNIX” economic governance – “FÉNIX” HOLE” HOLE”Decentralised, participatory and open Centralised democracy, the State Decentralised, participatory and open Centralised democracy, the State Autocratic, probably centralised Autocratic, probably centralised Democracy (including new forms of configuration with a tendency to be a Democracy (including new forms of configuration with a tendency to be a and/or decentralised and/or decentralised representation) provider representation) provider Institutional renewal; efficacy and Institutional renewal; efficacy and Institutional degradation Institutional degradation efficiency efficiency Capacity for reversing the current Capacity for reversing the current Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current situation by creating social capital, situation by creating social capital,values and social capital (Business-as- situation by creating social capital values and social capital (Business-as- situation by creating social capital imposed abroad; less profound imposed abroad; less profound Usual); low confidence levels in the (endogenously created); a more Usual); low confidence levels in the (endogenously created); a more change than the previous change than the previous civil society entrepreneurial society civil society entrepreneurial society configuration; adaptive evolution configuration; adaptive evolution Absence of vision and quality in Absence of vision and quality in Technical quality in managing the Technical quality in managing themanaging the public interest, keeping managing the public interest, keeping public interest, stability trust – public interest, stability trust – the erratic nature of governance – the erratic nature of governance – “SUNNY ROAD” “SUNNY ROAD” “THE SPANISH INN” “THE SPANISH INN” Rupture of the current cohesion Rupture of the current cohesion model; fragmentation (for instance: model; fragmentation (for instance: Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become working in Portugal with labour working in Portugal with labour European standard reinforced European standard reinforced contracts subject to another contracts subject to another country’s jurisdiction) country’s jurisdiction) Urbanisation reinforcement with the Urbanisation reinforcement with theUrbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership territory territory Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and interaction conflict knowledge interaction conflict knowledge Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 84. Portugal “Camilo Alves” Portugal “Vintage” Focus on industry and on sectors of Focus on industry and on sectors of Dualist Model – Mix of the two Dualist Model – Mix of the twoFocus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low Focus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low previous models previous models margins margins Deterioration of external accounts Deterioration of external accounts Improvement of financial and Improvement of financial and and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE” and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE” economic governance – “FÉNIX” economic governance – “FÉNIX” HOLE” HOLE” Decentralised, participatory and Centralised democracy, the State Decentralised, participatory and Centralised democracy, the State Autocratic, probably centralised Autocratic, probably centralised open Democracy (including new configuration with a tendency to be a open Democracy (including new configuration with a tendency to be a and/or decentralised and/or decentralised forms of representation) provider forms of representation) provider Institutional renewal; efficacy and Institutional renewal; efficacy and Institutional degradation Institutional degradation efficiency efficiency Capacity for reversing the current Capacity for reversing the current Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current situation by creating social capital, situation by creating social capital,values and social capital (Business-as- situation by creating social capital values and social capital (Business-as- situation by creating social capital imposed abroad; less profound imposed abroad; less profound Usual); low confidence levels in the (endogenously created); a more Usual); low confidence levels in the (endogenously created); a more change than the previous change than the previous civil society entrepreneurial society civil society entrepreneurial society configuration; adaptive evolution configuration; adaptive evolution Absence of vision and quality in Absence of vision and quality in Technical quality in managing the Technical quality in managing themanaging the public interest, keeping managing the public interest, keeping public interest, stability trust – public interest, stability trust – the erratic nature of governance – the erratic nature of governance – “SUNNY ROAD” “SUNNY ROAD” “THE SPANISH INN” “THE SPANISH INN” Rupture of the current cohesion Rupture of the current cohesion model; fragmentation (for instance: model; fragmentation (for instance: Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become working in Portugal with labour working in Portugal with labour European standard reinforced European standard reinforced contracts subject to another contracts subject to another country’s jurisdiction) country’s jurisdiction) Urbanisation reinforcement with the Urbanisation reinforcement with theUrbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership territory territory Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and interaction conflict knowledge interaction conflict knowledge Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 85. Renewal within Continuity Global Portugal Focus on industry and on sectors of Focus on industry and on sectors of Dualist Model – Mix of the two Dualist Model – Mix of the two Focus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low Focus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low previous models previous models margins margins Deterioration of external accounts Deterioration of external accounts Improvement of financial and Improvement of financial and and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE” and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE” economic governance – “FÉNIX” economic governance – “FÉNIX” HOLE” HOLE”Decentralised, participatory and open Centralised democracy, the State Decentralised, participatory and open Centralised democracy, the State Autocratic, probably centralised Autocratic, probably centralised Democracy (including new forms of configuration with a tendency to be a Democracy (including new forms of configuration with a tendency to be a and/or decentralised and/or decentralised representation) provider representation) provider Institutional renewal; efficacy and Institutional renewal; efficacy and Institutional degradation Institutional degradation efficiency efficiency Capacity for reversing the current Capacity for reversing the current Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current situation by creating social capital, situation by creating social capital,values and social capital (Business-as- situation by creating social capital values and social capital (Business-as- situation by creating social capital imposed abroad; less profound imposed abroad; less profound Usual); low confidence levels in the (endogenously created); a more Usual); low confidence levels in the (endogenously created); a more change than the previous change than the previous civil society entrepreneurial society civil society entrepreneurial society configuration; adaptive evolution configuration; adaptive evolution Absence of vision and quality in Absence of vision and quality in Technical quality in managing the Technical quality in managing themanaging the public interest, keeping managing the public interest, keeping public interest, stability trust – public interest, stability trust – the erratic nature of governance – the erratic nature of governance – “SUNNY ROAD” “SUNNY ROAD” “THE SPANISH INN” “THE SPANISH INN” Rupture of the current cohesion Rupture of the current cohesion model; fragmentation (for instance: model; fragmentation (for instance: Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become working in Portugal with labour working in Portugal with labour European standard reinforced European standard reinforced contracts subject to another country’s contracts subject to another country’s jurisdiction) jurisdiction) Urbanisation reinforcement with the Urbanisation reinforcement with theUrbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership territory territoryCoexistence – two parallel worlds, two Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences as Coexistence – two parallel worlds, two Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences as different generations with no dependence relations; generational a source of new practices and different generations with no dependence relations; generational a source of new practices and interaction conflict knowledge interaction conflict knowledgeIncrease in the quality and importance Reduction in the quality and Increase in the quality and importance Reduction in the quality and of the production and transmission of importance of the production and of the production and transmission of importance of the production and knowledge transmission of knowledge knowledge transmission of knowledge DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 86. • Intro • The workshops and their inputs • The written ScenariosDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 87. Two Long-Term Scenarios for the Portuguese EconomyDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 88. A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY IIIScenario methodological note: amore inductive systematization
  • 89. A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY IVC1: “Welcome”C1 - SummaryC1 – Global Framework (GF_A)C1 - Introduction: Structural Steps in the Functioning andPositioning of the Portuguese EconomyC1 – Evolution of the Specialization ProfileC1 – Strategic Leadership, Institutional Capacity Building andSocial CapitalC1 – Scientific Potential and Education and Training SystemsC1 – Spatial Planning and Role of the CitiesC1 – Physical and Digital ConnectivityC1 – Energy and Environment
  • 90. Scenario no. 1 “Welcome”DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 91. In spite of the major structural forces limiting the international positioning of the Portuguese economy still hindering the success of the attempts for achieving transformation, Portugal manages to position itself at an international level as a Tourism/welcoming country, based on its “classic” comparative advantages and with the capacity for organising its territory as a whole, reclaiming buildings and planning the cities. Several and recurring economic problems occur but our collective capacity to manage the short term and find answers ends up succeeding, step-by-step, in rebalancing the situations. The combination of the gains in urban planning with the dynamics of cultural and creative industries constitutes an important and complementary contribution in the logic of the “innovative welcoming” in the same way as activities associated with active aging, including the development of market niches related to the health/pharmaceutical industry.DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 92. •Resources/•Regulation/Rules Global Framework of the “Welcome” Scenario• Markets/Regional Influence/Models• Socio-economic References • Rise of Large Eastern Economies, with particular impact of the Chinese Economy • Oligopolistic world •… (Geo)economy Competition • Increase in the world • Resources/ population • Different approaches to • Regulation/Rules technological Innovation Technology Demography • Aging of the population • Markets/Regional in the developed •… Influence/Models countries • Socio-economic •… References Environment/ Sustainability • Pressure on water resources • Increasing need for Energy •… DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 93. “Welcome” - Synthesis Portugal was able to implement important changes to improve the functioning and positioning of its economy (containment of the chronic external deficit and ability to plan and organize its territory); Portugal wasn’t able to successfully bring about some needed structural changes (concerning internal imbalances endemic in nature and the way by which its economy integrated itself in the globalisation process, with the virtuous exception of tourism); Expectations created with the balancing of public accounts defrauded by Portugal’s inability, in adverse international environment, to become more attractive and central; Some ability for the generation of "endogenous" skills; Inability to attract FDI capable of leveraging change in the production profile; Structural reforms begun, but slow to implement in a context of major budget tightening; Constant monitoring by financial markets; Portugal reveals the capacity for short-term response in very difficult situations, but is never able to do the same for long term; Economic course of action characterized by proximity and quick return investment in activities and sectors where Portugal has comparative advantages with poorly skilled yet specialized labour; Exception being the promotion of the health cluster in niche markets, driven by tourism to accommodate the elderly population of developed countries, more demanding in health care. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 94. “Welcome” Scenario – Tourism Segments and Benefiting Sectors Nautical Tourism Golf City and Short Breaks  To consolidate the strong  To invest in the docking conditions  To improve accessibility to Lisbon / international projection as a golf and in the building of ports and destination Porto harbours, marinas and recreational  To build more high quality golf  To improve the tourist experience, ports in the priority areas. courses (by famous architects) and particularly in Porto by structuring  In the cruises segment, to improve with a diversified offer thematic itineraries, diversifying the conditions of the terminals and  To ensure annual golf tournaments entertainment events to create new routes with high international projection  To stimulate golf practice in Portugal Gastronomy and Wines Integrated Resorts and Residential  To take advantage of the conditions Sun and Sea Segment Tourism and natural / cultural resources  Re-qualify the product with priority  Growing in quality (Douro, Alentejo and Central to Algarve  To promote the creation of resorts Portugal)  To structure the product  To invest in complementary activities with associated offers (e.g. golf  To stimulate the sale of Appellation which strengthen the value proposal courses and Spas) for the tourist  To highlight tourism management of Origin products (wines and systems focused on resorts cheeses)  Food Tasting Offer Business Tourism Cultural and Landscape Touring Nature Tourism  To consolidate the offer for large  To create thematic routes  To improve the infrastructures congresses in Lisbon and to develop  To enrich the experience in the main  To improve road signs and the paths it in Algarve places of attraction through nature  To develop the small meetings  To ensure the adoption of quality  To develop the offer, ensuring the segment in Lisbon, Porto, Algarve standards along the whole value preservation of the protected areas and Madeira chain Health and Well-being  To develop distinctive offers in Azores and Madeira  To transform the Spa industry in Porto, and in the North and Centre of the country  To develop well-being equipment and services in Hotels  Medical Tourism DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 95. (continued from previous slide) Support Services Building and Real Estate  Certification Logistics and Transportation  Waste management  Rehabilitation of real estate  Environmental management and  Geographical reference systems  Requalification of public areas valorisation  Ports  Energy and Environmental  Engineering  Mobility Certification  CIT  Training  Marketing  Organising events Food Industry Cultural and Creative Industries  Vegetable and speciality agriculture Equipment Goods  Educative and leisure software  Biological products  Media and entertainment  Leisure equipment  Gourmet products  Design  Sports equipment  Fishing and aquaculture  Architecture  Hotel and Restaurant equipment  Wine tasting  Advertising  Gastronomy competitions and fairs Health and Community Care Security and Defence Distribution and Trade  Telemedicine  Monitoring of the coastal areas and  Supermarkets  Community care of the exclusive economic area  Shopping centres  Hospitals and Private Clinics  Internal Security (public and private)  Luxury goods  Pharmaceutical products related to  Information services aging DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 96. Scenario no. 2 “We cannot fail”DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 97. A set of endogenous developments (changes) within the functioning of the Portuguese economy and society, combine with some global external driving forces to turn the three decades subsequent to 2011 unique in growth dynamics, increase in competitive capacity and sectorial, institutional and societal reorganisation of our country. In this scenario, there is a reindustrialisation of the Portuguese economy together with the development of new activities, namely in high-technology domains (bio, cogno, nano…) and services of intensive knowledge. Portugal stands out in the fields of clean energies, sustainable mobility and new intelligent materials.DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 98. •Resources/•Regulation/Rules Global Framework of the “We cannot fail” Scenario• Markets/Regional Influence/Models• Socio-economic References • Rising of large economies • Changing to a multi- polar world •… (Geo)economy Competition • Speeding up of change • Increase of the world and technologic population convergence Resources • Aging of the population • Ubiquitous intelligence Technology Demography in the developed • Market convergence Skills countries • … Savings • … Environment/ Sustainability • Pressure over water resources • Increasing needs of energy • Increasing importance of the ecology and environmental issues DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO • … E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 99. “We cannot fail” - Synthesis Portugal performs a number of structural changes in the functioning and positioning of its economy; Macroeconomic and microeconomic policies simultaneously stimulate innovation, creativity and technological improvement moving the economy up in the value chain; Containment of labour costs for companies so that the jobs needed to absorb a still abundant poorly skilled yet specialised workforce could be kept; Ability to use "endogenous" resources and skills to attract strategic FDI; Ability to work both the short term and the long term; Awareness that short term investment wouldn’t be enough to design and build a sufficiently competitive and innovative economy 20 or 30 years into the future; Ability to initiate and develop a number of projects designed to attract to Portugal high value added, knowledge-intensive activities; Ability to tune in and synchronize with the more dynamic and innovative clusters and regions of the world economy (Europe, USA and Asia), bearing in mind the pro-active and selective manner in which Portugal, without forgetting its history, culture and natural integration into the European, Iberian and Portuguese speaking countries, positioned itself among these different regions and actors. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 100. Long-term Socio-economic Scenarios for Portugal and their relation/compatibility with the Global Framework (GF) C2: “We cannot fail” C2: “We cannot fail”: in a Unexplored combination: in growing and highly competitive a tense and unstable world, world, Portugal manages to with the “western world” going (re)position itself in the new through a difficult transition, technological and innovation the external “levers” for the waves that feed a global, transformations underlying C2 integrated and very dynamic are, in most part, absent. economy. GF_A: Unstable world in a troubled transition; reactive, GF_B: Highly competitive with protectionist tendencies globalisation; economic growth and an increase of the national with effective ability for global and macro-regional specificities coordination and action (political, economic and so on) C1: “Welcome”: in a world going through a difficult and unstable transition which Unexplored combination: tended to reinforce the possible scenario but less peripheral nature of Portugal, ambitious than C2 (our option our country focused with was, in this case, to “exalt”, for success on its comparative clarity purposes, the built traditional advantages: Scenarios) “amenities”/natural resources, cheap labour /”circumstantial” access to the markets. C1: “Welcome” DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 101. Quantification» not forecasts, but only possible evolution patterns of the variables.» The scenario period was divided into two periods with distinctcharacteristics:- 2011-2020, a closer time horizon in which, although the degree ofuncertainty is very high, the historic trends still have considerable weight.Therefore, a reflection with some detail about the sectorial evolutions ispossible.- 2021-2050, a much more distant period, in which the prospect of thevariables’ evolution is related mainly with the perception of their relationshipwith the main trends and “structural characteristics” of each Scenario. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 102. Quantification» The following variables were quantified : • Resident Population; • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at market prices; • Households Private Consumption over the territory; • Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices, by sector, using a sectorialdisaggregation specifically defined for the project. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 103. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 104. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 105. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 106. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 107. Long-term Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy Roadmap DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 108. www.cenariosportugal.com This work was developed under the HybCO2 research project funded byDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
  • 109. ObrigadoDEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTOE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAISMinistério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

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