The Changing Face

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The Changing Face

  1. 1. The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market for Panhandle Twenty/20 January 30, 2007 Richard Froeschle [email_address] Texas Workforce Commission/LMCI (512) 491-4941 www.twc.state.tx.us/realitycheck www.tracer2.com www.texaswages.com
  2. 2. The Statistics Never Lie…!!! <ul><li>700,000 Physicians in the U.S. </li></ul><ul><li>98,000 Accidental Deaths caused by Physicians </li></ul><ul><li>0.14 Accidental Deaths per Physician </li></ul><ul><li>65 million Gun Owners in the U.S </li></ul><ul><li>29,789 Accidental Gun Deaths </li></ul><ul><li>.000458 Accidental Deaths per Gun Owner </li></ul>You are 306 times more likely to accidently die at the hands of a Physician than a Gun
  3. 3. How is the Economy Performing? It Depends on Your Personal Perspective! <ul><li>It’s doing well if…. </li></ul><ul><li>Employed w/ marketable & transferable skills </li></ul><ul><li>Health Care, esp. Nursing </li></ul><ul><li>Medical/Drs. Assistants </li></ul><ul><li>Therapists &Therapy Aides </li></ul><ul><li>Network Systems Analysts </li></ul><ul><li>Residential Care Facilities </li></ul><ul><li>Airline or other Security </li></ul><ul><li>Teaching, all levels </li></ul><ul><li>Home Health Aides </li></ul><ul><li>It’s not doing well if… </li></ul><ul><li>Unemp w/Undefined skills </li></ul><ul><li>Repetitive, Rules-based Jobs </li></ul><ul><li>Cut & Sew Apparel Sector </li></ul><ul><li>Small Farmer/Rancher </li></ul><ul><li>Telemarketer/Travel Agent </li></ul><ul><li>Electronics & Production Assembler </li></ul><ul><li>Order or File Clerk </li></ul><ul><li>Grocery or Check-in Clerk </li></ul><ul><li>Meter Readers </li></ul>
  4. 5. Major U.S. Demographic Trends Affecting the Texas Labor Market <ul><li>Aging of the Population (Baby Boomers hit age 62 in 2008) </li></ul><ul><li>Change in Growth Rates and Sources of Population (slower, more immigration) </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in the Non-Anglo Population (influence of increased cultural diversity) </li></ul><ul><li>Change in Household Composition (smaller households, fewer “traditional” families) </li></ul><ul><li>Population Migration South and West </li></ul><ul><li>Demographic Transition Theory and Evolving Rectangular Population Pyramids </li></ul>
  5. 6. World Population Pyramids 2004 & Organizational Behavior Less Developed Country Demographics Developed Country Demographics Lower fertility & lower mortality
  6. 7. U.S. Population Pyramids 2003 U.S. Native Population U.S. Immigrant Population Percent of Total Population Percent of Total Population
  7. 8. As the Workplace Mirrors a More Rectangular Demographic Pyramid… <ul><li>1. Managers using pyramidal (rather than collaborative) techniques will be increasingly ineffective. </li></ul><ul><li>a. Organizations will seem to flatten on their own. </li></ul><ul><li>b. Systems that depend on a pyramid structure will begin to breakdown because 1) insufficient #s of line staff, 2) need for managers to serve dual purpose roles including technical </li></ul><ul><li>c. Seniority decreases in importance . Older people may not understand why & may feel cheated of their entitlements. </li></ul><ul><li>d. Hiring will take place at all levels of an organization , not just low-level ports of entry </li></ul>John Sumser, Interbiznet
  8. 10. Typical Behaviors with a Rectangular Population Pyramid (continued) <ul><li>2. Increased need to manage age, race and cultural diversity </li></ul><ul><li>a. Even though the average age of the population constantly increases, age-based entitlements (retirement, pensions, respect) decline. </li></ul><ul><li>b. Tolerance is engaged & tested as we learn to utilize different kinds of people. Diversity is an adaptive approach. </li></ul><ul><li>c. Rethinking the utility of different kinds of people (differing ages & ethnicity) is hard. Old stereotypes resist change. </li></ul><ul><li>d. Lifelong learning will become a virtue. </li></ul><ul><li>e. Immigration is necessary to maintain the status quo, but there will be temptations to blame immigrants for the problems. </li></ul>
  9. 11. Occupations with 50% of Workforce over Age 45 AND Replacement Need of 50K Plus <ul><li>High School Teachers </li></ul><ul><li>Telephone Repairers </li></ul><ul><li>Insurance Salespersons </li></ul><ul><li>College Faculty </li></ul><ul><li>Elementary Teachers </li></ul><ul><li>Supervisor, Mechanic </li></ul><ul><li>Electronic Assemblers </li></ul><ul><li>Construction Supervisor </li></ul><ul><li>Maids & Housekeepers </li></ul><ul><li>Operations Researchers </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial Machinery Repair </li></ul><ul><li>Financial Managers </li></ul><ul><li>Machinists </li></ul><ul><li>Licensed Practical Nurses </li></ul><ul><li>Registered Nurses </li></ul><ul><li>Production Inspectors </li></ul><ul><li>General Office Supervisors </li></ul><ul><li>Civil Engineers </li></ul><ul><li>Postal Mail Carriers </li></ul><ul><li>Government Administrator </li></ul>
  10. 12. Percent of U.S. Workers 2004 in Selected Occupations Who Are Unauthorized Migrants
  11. 13. Adjusting to Impending Labor Shortages 1. Skilled labor shortages already exist in many occupational fields e.g. health care 2. Skilled & general labor shortages are predicted beginning in 2008 with baby boomer retirement 3. Companies are investigating viable alternative labor options to continue to produce product and maintain sales and profits in the face of labor shortages 4. Outsourcing , visas & direct foreign investment abroad are 3 responses to deal with skilled labor shortages
  12. 14. State & Regional Industry Growth Patterns: Historical Change and Projected Employment
  13. 15. Texas Industry Employment Job Growth 2003-06 <ul><li>1. Employment Services 57,161 </li></ul><ul><li>2. Elementary & Secondary Education 38,157 </li></ul><ul><li>3. Fast Food Restaurants 32,562 </li></ul><ul><li>4. Home Health Care Services 30,184 </li></ul><ul><li>5. Oil Well Drilling Support Activities 27,163 </li></ul><ul><li>6. Full-service Restaurants 25,060 </li></ul><ul><li>7. Local Government 18,344 </li></ul><ul><li>8. Warehousing & Storage 15,264 </li></ul><ul><li>9. Mgmt. & Technical Consulting Services 14,459 </li></ul><ul><li>10. Offices of Physicians 13,927 </li></ul><ul><li>11. Misc. Single Line Gen. Merchandise Stores 13,716 </li></ul><ul><li>12. Arch, Engineer, Testing Lab Services 13,583 </li></ul>
  14. 16. Texas Industry Forecasts from 2005 to 2008 (prelim) 12.9% 14,162 13. Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 4.9% 15,148 12. Specialty Trade Contractors 20.8% 16,199 11. Support Activities for Mining 5.5% 17,545 10. Local Government (ex. Educ., Health) 7.6% 18,160 9. General Merchandise Stores 5.8% 19,569 8. Hospitals (public/private) 10.7% 48,468 4. Ambulatory Health Care Services 14.1% 75,268 1. Administrative & Support Services 9.7% 21,131 7. Credit Intermediation & Related Services 9.2% 23,704 6. Merchant Wholesalers, durable goods 10.2% 48,454 5. Prof., Scientific & Technical Services 8.5% 59,075 3. Food Services & Drinking Places 7.4% 74,945 2. Educational Services (Public/Private) Pct. Growth Net Growth NAICS Industry
  15. 17. Texas Industry Forecasts from 2005 to 2008 (prelim) 14.1% 75,268 5. Administrative & Support Services 12.6% 2,838 8. Waste Mangmnt & Remediation Services 20.8% 16,199 2. Support Activities for Mining 10.7% 48,468 13. Ambulatory Health Care Services 10.9% 9,142 12. Building Materials Dealers/Suppliers 11.0% 8,543 11. Machinery Manufacturing (construction, farm, O&G) 14.0% 265 6. Lessors of Nonfinancial Assets (franchises, patents) 22.2% 573 1. Other Information Services (Archives, News Syndicates) 11.7% 12,881 10. State Government (ex. Educ. & Health) 11.8% 4,738 9. Wholesale Electronic Brokers/Agents 12.9% 14,162 7. Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 14.2% 5,202 4. Warehousing & Storage 14.7% 158 3. Internet Publishing & Broadcasting Pct. Growth Net Growth NAICS Industry
  16. 18. Panhandle Sector-based Employment 2004 to 2006 1,139 3,921 3,572 10,811 4,979 4,205 12,941 3,369 12,616 13,286 8,558 5,649 15,798 2006 3 1,136 Apparel, Leather &Wood Non-durables 20 3,901 Petroleum Refining & Chemicals 55 3,517 Legal, Protective & Human Services 197 10,614 Biotech, Life Sciences & Medical 253 4,726 Transportation Equipment 313 3,892 Logistics, Distribution & Transportation 788 12,498 Agriculture, Forestry & Food 1,509 14,289 Business & Financial Services 351 12,590 Corporate HQ & Government 422 2,947 Prod. Support & Industrial Machines 448 12,168 General Line Retailers 790 7,768 Heavy & Special Trade Construction 996 4,653 Energy, Mining & Related 04-06 2004 Industry Sector (18)
  17. 19. Globalization is Changing Economic Theory, Employer Business Practices and Labor Supply Options
  18. 20. “” The world has arrived at a rare strategic inflection point where nearly half its population—living in China, India and Russia—have been integrated into the global market economy, many of them highly educated workers, who can do just about any job in the world. We’re talking about three billion people . Craig Barrett, CEO Intel 01/08/2004
  19. 21. Why Are U.S Companies Investing Overseas? <ul><li>1. Establishing a presence overseas to gain greater access to emerging markets </li></ul><ul><li>2. Operating in low-wage countries allows U.S. firms to align their cost structures with global competitors </li></ul><ul><li>Duke University Survey: What drives offshoring? </li></ul><ul><li>93% strongly agree that Reducing Costs is the number one reason for offshoring. </li></ul><ul><li>69% agree Competitive Pressures </li></ul><ul><li>55% say Service Quality </li></ul><ul><li>54% say Access to Qualified Personnel </li></ul>
  20. 22. Emerging Markets in a Global Economy: Percent of 2000 & 2004 Revenue Outside U.S. <ul><li>YUM Brands 34.5% (36.04%) </li></ul><ul><li>Gen Motors 26.2% (27.9%) </li></ul><ul><li>Ford 30.4% (41.6%) </li></ul><ul><li>Boeing 34.3% (30.5%) </li></ul><ul><li>Intel 58.8% (80.8%) </li></ul><ul><li>Coca Cola 61.0% (69.7%) </li></ul><ul><li>Corning (n/a) (65.3%) </li></ul><ul><li>Emerson Electric 40% (47%) </li></ul><ul><li>Sara Lee (n/a) (44.1%) </li></ul><ul><li>Intnl Paper 22.1% (27.8%) </li></ul><ul><li>IBM 57.9% (63%) </li></ul><ul><li>Motorola 52.5% (40.3%) </li></ul><ul><li>JNJ 38.2% (41.4%) </li></ul><ul><li>John Deere 25.1% (29.1%) </li></ul><ul><li>Colgate 69.4% (73.7%) </li></ul><ul><li>Nike 50.3% (61.0%) </li></ul><ul><li>Campbell Soup n/a (35.6%) </li></ul>
  21. 25. Globalization is Working Both Ways…
  22. 26. Competition & Leakages Affect Job Creation… “ There is no job that is America’s God-given right anymore. Our competitiveness as a nation is not inevitable.” Carly Fiorina More than half of the revenue from U.S. information technology companies comes from abroad. That $$$ helped finance $56.5 billion of spending on research and development, mostly in the U.S., providing work for scientists and engineers. “ It is unrealistic to think that 100% of our employees would be in the U.S. when 70% of our revenues are from outside the U.S.” U.S. Tech Executives
  23. 27. Globalization Means Emerging Consumer Markets
  24. 28. Worker Productivity, Changing Business Practices Affects Worker Preparation & Job Opportunities Isn’t There a Machine That Can Do This?
  25. 29. Productivity: More Output with Fewer Workers (US 2002-2012) Output --Employ <ul><li>Total All Industries 3.3% 1.5% </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturing 3.4% -.1% </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial Machinery 4.4% -.5% </li></ul><ul><li>Computer Products Manufacture 11.8% -1.3% </li></ul><ul><li>Communications Equipment 10.4% .5% </li></ul><ul><li>Medical Equipment 5.2% .6% </li></ul><ul><li>Retail Trade 3.4% 1.3% </li></ul><ul><li>Air Transportation 4.9% .7% </li></ul><ul><li>Internet Services 10.3% 3.9% </li></ul><ul><li>Computer Systems Design 9.0% 4.5% </li></ul><ul><li>Ambulatory Health Care 3.8% 3.5% </li></ul><ul><li>State & Local Government 1.6% 1.3% </li></ul><ul><li>Professional Services 4.5% 2.5% </li></ul>
  26. 30. New Technologies Create New Consumer Products which Affect: <ul><li>Creation of New Consumer Markets and Corporate Revenue Streams </li></ul><ul><li>New Mix of Industry Composition, Firm Mix, Market Leaders </li></ul><ul><li>New or Evolving Mix of Occupational Skills, Employer Hiring Requirements & Workforce Preparation Issues </li></ul><ul><li>Blended or Merged Occupations </li></ul><ul><li>New Mix of Global Production Markets and Intermediate Suppliers </li></ul><ul><li>But what is the employment impact of any given new Technology?? </li></ul>
  27. 31. Segway ™ , Cell Phones, iPOD ™ New Products: Better Life or Real Job Impacts?
  28. 32. Self-service Kiosks, Carbon Nanotubes, Robotics, Inventory Control Technologies
  29. 33. Projection Keyboard & Projector Translation Goggles
  30. 34. Fastest Growing Texas Occupations 2012 $36,935 SC/C Environmental Science Technicians $41,632 SC/C Respiratory Therapists $13,477 HS/SC Home Health Care Aides $23,816 SC/C Physical Therapy Aides $21,714 HS/SC Medical Assistants $34,420 HS/SC Respiratory Therapy Technicians $40,855 SC/C Physical Therapy Assistants $42,986 C Special Education Teachers $77,378 SC/C Physician Assistants $24,685 HS/SC Medical Records Technicians Annual Pay Education Occupation Title
  31. 35. Texas Occupations with Most Jobs 2012 $41,775 C Elementary School Teachers $14,994 HS/SC Waiters & Waitresses $14,033 HS Fast Food Prep Workers $52,665 SC/C Registered Nurses $21,970 HS/SC/C Retail Salespersons $18,322 HS/SC Nursing Aides & Orderlies $16,773 HS/SC Teachers Assistants $16,759 HS Janitors & Cleaners $16,049 HS/SC Cashiers $26,328 HS/SC/C Customer Service Representatives $13,477 HS/SC Personal & Home Health Aides Pay Label Education Occupation Title
  32. 36. Growing Gap Between Well-educated & Marginally Educated (real median weekly earnings)
  33. 37. Highest Paying Majors 1 Year Post-Graduation: Bachelors & Associates Degrees Only $27,415 BA 15. Liberal Arts $30,160 BA 11. Mathematics & Statistics $30,851 BA 10. Business, Mgmt. & Marketing **Avg. earnings for entire graduating cohort, not for individual graduates $33,276 BA 9. Computer & Information Sciences $34,167 AAS 8. Precision Production $40,120 AAS 4. Construction Trades $47,306 BA 1. Health Professions/Clinical Sciences $36,737 AAS 7. Architectural & Related Services $37,968 AAS 6. Science Technologies/ Technicians $39,677 BA 5. Engineering Technologies/Technicians $44,230 AAS 3. Health Professions/Clinical Sciences $45,278 BA 2. Engineering Annual Pay Exit Level College Major
  34. 38. Harry Truman is purported to have said, All my economists say, “on the one, or on the other hand”…what I really need is a one-handed economist.
  35. 39. What do labor economists agree on? <ul><li>I. There will be no shortage of opportunities in the knowledge sector for those with the education and intelligence to perform in it. “Thinkers” and other creative, innovative people will be in demand. </li></ul><ul><li>II. All jobs, even the most low-skilled, will require higher levels of basic education, math, communication and technology skills…for survival and growth </li></ul><ul><li>III. Those without some specialized knowledge or skill are likely to suffer declining real wages </li></ul>
  36. 40. What do labor economists agree on? (II) <ul><li>IV. The Digital Divide exists and those on the wrong side will have limited hiring and advancement opportunities, </li></ul><ul><li>V. Jobs requiring “human touch” will continue to be in demand e.g. health services and nursing, auto mechanics, construction…no robot plumbers! </li></ul><ul><li>VI. Workplace settings and business practices and knowledges will change rapidly, making lifelong learning essential e.g. productivity is King …doing it better, producing more with fewer workers e.g. life after “paving the cow path” </li></ul>
  37. 41. There is much more to tell, but this story is over! Thank you
  38. 42. Student Career Interests 30,868 Inquiries January 2004-January 2006 <ul><li>1. Doctor, all specialties (2,064) </li></ul><ul><li>2. Lawyer (1,816) </li></ul><ul><li>3. Teacher K-12 (1,744) </li></ul><ul><li>4. Athletes & Coaches (1,238) </li></ul><ul><li>5. Law enforcement (1,193) </li></ul><ul><li>6. Registered Nurses (1,100) </li></ul><ul><li>7. Veterinarians (1,093) </li></ul><ul><li>8. Singers/Entertainers (827) </li></ul><ul><li>9. Cosmetology/Hairdresser (759) </li></ul><ul><li>10. Actors & Directors (506) </li></ul><ul><li>11. Architects </li></ul><ul><li>12. Biological scientist </li></ul><ul><li>13. Auto mechanics </li></ul><ul><li>14. Photographers </li></ul><ul><li>15. Designers </li></ul><ul><li>16. Computer programmer </li></ul><ul><li>17. Fire fighters </li></ul><ul><li>18. Computer engineers </li></ul><ul><li>19. Artists </li></ul><ul><li>20. Psychologists </li></ul>
  39. 45. Education3M Stability is dead; “education” must therefore “educate” for an unknowable, ambiguous, changing future; thence, learning to learn & adapt is far more important than mastery of a static body of “facts.” The Internet is viewed by today’s youth as an extension of their brain!

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