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  1. 1. Mediamorphosis – the shape of things to come Nils Enlund Professor, Media Technology and Graphic Arts Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden <>
  2. 2. Mediamorphosis — the book <ul><li>Roger Fidler 1997: </li></ul><ul><li>” The transformation of communication media, usually brought about by the complex interplay of perceived needs, competitive and political pressures, and social and technological innovations” </li></ul>
  3. 3. I am not a medium! <ul><li>medium , pl. media (lat. ”in the middle”, ”a go-between”) </li></ul><ul><li>Between producer and consumer of information </li></ul><ul><li>Between the physical and the spiritual world </li></ul><ul><li>Predicting the future, knowing the unknown </li></ul>
  4. 4. Pointing my trembling finger <ul><li>I will just try to point out a number of trends and facts that, in my opinion, will signific-antly contribute to the future development of media </li></ul><ul><li>No strict logical order </li></ul><ul><li>No consistent view of the future </li></ul>
  5. 5. Expanding media spectrum <ul><li>Technology development is currently focused on media consumption devices </li></ul><ul><li>New multifunctional devices introduced every year </li></ul><ul><li>Traditional media do not disappear! </li></ul><ul><li>Time and money spent on media consumtion has remained stable over the years </li></ul><ul><li>Increased competition, niched media, fragmented and smaller audiences for advertisement </li></ul><ul><li>Smaller margins, shaky economy </li></ul>
  6. 6. Convergence <ul><li>Industry convergence </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The rise of a global media industry </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Production convergence </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Media content produced for multichannel distribution </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Content convergence </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The distinctions between traditionally different media forms and genres fade </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Distribution convergence </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Different media forms can be distributed over the same digital carrier </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Consumption device convergence </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tv on the phone, web on the tv, phone on the computer … </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Fragmentation <ul><li>Composite media forms are becoming fragmented </li></ul><ul><li>The tv and radio channel concept is dissolving </li></ul><ul><ul><li>We consume individual programs, shows, and formats distributed in a variety of channels </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>IP-TV, VOD, TIVO, mobile TV/video, … </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Newspapers are losing parts of their content to other distribution channels </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Real news has disappeared from print long ago </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ads are going to the web </li></ul></ul><ul><li>New focus on media objects and content types </li></ul>
  8. 8. Genre transformations <ul><li>A genre is a distinctive type of recurring commun-icative action, characterized by common aspects of content, form, and functionality and by a commun-icative purpose recognized within a community </li></ul><ul><li>Content types are being recombined into new media genres </li></ul><ul><ul><li>hypermediacy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Totally new genres emerging </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Wiki, blogs, moblogs, … </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New genres formed around and by new communities </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Value chain implosion <ul><li>The division of roles between media producers and consumers is dissolving </li></ul><ul><li>Interaction </li></ul><ul><li>Personalization </li></ul><ul><li>Consumers become producers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Collaborative creation (Wiki,…) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Everyone his/her own (news, movie, web, …) producer </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Downloading, piracy, digital manipulation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Immaterial property rights lose their value? </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. User-centric development <ul><li>Media design for a wide variety of users / uses: </li></ul><ul><li>Individual preferences </li></ul><ul><li>Fashion, attitudes </li></ul><ul><li>Mobility </li></ul><ul><li>Accessibility </li></ul><ul><li>Scalability </li></ul><ul><li>Usability </li></ul>
  11. 11. Immersion <ul><li>Some media forms, especially entertainment and games, are means of transportation </li></ul><ul><li>When consuming the media, we wish to feel transported into another world, a virtual reality </li></ul><ul><li>Technology strives to become transparent </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Technical immersion in virtual realities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multisensory content (hypermediation) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New modes of narration and interaction </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. Physicality vs. virtuality <ul><li>Humans have a need for physicality </li></ul><ul><li>Of all our senses, touch is the one that we trust the most </li></ul><ul><li>Media and mediated experiences cannot be puerly virtual </li></ul><ul><li>We need media artifacts! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Collectibles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Status and show-off </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Trust building </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. The slow future <ul><li>Evolution instead of revolution </li></ul><ul><li>The media landscape changes slowly </li></ul>” The chasm”
  14. 14. The hype curve Time Visibility Technology introduction The peak of inflated expectations The trough of disillusion- ment The slope of enlightenment The plateau of productivity The valley of merciful oblivion
  15. 15. In summary: <ul><li>An increasingly complex media landscape </li></ul><ul><li>New genres will emerge </li></ul><ul><li>The old will not disappear </li></ul><ul><li>Business models will be revolutionized </li></ul><ul><li>Global media giants vs. niche entrepreneurs </li></ul><ul><li>Consumers become (co)producers </li></ul><ul><li>The user is queen/king! </li></ul><ul><li>Media everywhere! </li></ul>
  16. 16. Thank you!