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Media Briefing With Economic Managers
 

Media Briefing With Economic Managers

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Media Briefing With Economic Managers Media Briefing With Economic Managers Presentation Transcript

  • Recent Economic Performance and Prospects for 2003-2004 Year-End 2003 Media Briefing Five Storey Building, BSP Complex December 22, 2003 Presented By Romulo L. Neri Secretary of Socio-Economic Planning
  • Outline of Presentation
    • Recent Performance
    • Outlook for 2003-2004
  • Economic Performance (Growth rates, in percent) 25.6 5.7 4.3 1 st -3 rd Qtr 28.4 35.7 13.3 -6.2 NFIA 5.9 6.0 5.1 3.1 GNP 4.4 4.0 4.5 3.8 GDP Q3 Q2 Q1 Q3 2003 2002
  • Asian GDP (Q3 2003, growth rate in %)
  • Major Industries (Growth rates, in percent) 5.6 3.1 3.3 1 st -3 rd Qtr 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.0 Services 2.3 3.1 4.1 4.4 Industry 5.5 1.6 2.9 -0.4 AFF Q3 Q2 Q1 2003 2002 Q3
  • Agriculture, Fishery & Forestry (Growth rates, in percent) 1.4 6.5 -1.1 -2.8 Other crops 0.0 0.9 2.5 5.2 Banana 2.6 3.1 5.1 8.5 Poultry 3.3 2.6 3.8 4.6 Livestock 4.7 5.5 0.4 5.4 Fishery -5.4 -16.0 22.1 -5.6 Corn 20.4 -10.3 -0.7 -16.0 Palay 5.5 1.6 2.9 -0.4 AFF 313.3 -41.0 -51.1 -43.7 Forestry -19.3 22.2 18.9 -43.5 Sugarcane 1.8 0.5 2.1 10.4 Coconut/copra Q3 Q2 Q1 Q3 2003 2002
  • Industry (Growth rates, in percent) 4.4 4.6 5.3 2.7 Manufacturing 17.8 26.7 13.9 60.9 Mining & Quarrying 2.3 3.1 4.1 4.4 Industry 3.0 3.1 2.9 4.1 Utilities -10.7 -9.5 -3.6 3.0 Construction Q3 Q2 Q1 Q3 2003 2002
  • Gainers in Manufacturing (Growth rates, in percent) 3.5 -13.5 -7.1 29.1 Electrical Machinery 16.3 5.3 1.1 -13.4 Miscellaneous 40.3 33.5 10.9 -26.8 Machinery except electrical 15.3 50.9 12.4 2.0 Wood and Cork 9.1 12.4 1.5 7.3 Textile 2.5 7.3 12.1 1.6 Food manufactures 15.5 19.6 3.8 -9.4 Products of petroleum and coal 120.9 45.9 93.0 -6.0 Basic metal 1.5 4.2 5.1 2.3 Publishing and Printing 4.6 8.2 4.7 -10.5 Paper and paper products 4.4 3.0 3.0 -4.6 Furniture and Fixtures 3.2 7.8 -2.5 -7.8 Chemical and Chemical products Q3 Q2 Q1 Q3 2003 2002
  • Losers in Manufacturing (Growth rates, in percent) -2.4 16.5 6.3 8.9 Footwear/Wearing apparel -52.5 -59.0 -47.1 22.5 Tobacco -3.9 1.5 6.6 7.8 Beverage -14.0 -14.0 5.8 -10.3 Transport equipment -9.0 -2.0 -15.5 13.4 Non-metallic minerals -0.5 -1.9 3.3 -1.2 Rubber products -37.8 6.6 -4.9 2.3 Leather and leather products -17.8 -13.2 0.8 8.5 Metal industries Q3 Q2 Q1 2003 2002 Q3
  • Services (Growth rates, in percent) 4.0 4.1 3.2 2.1 O. Dwelling & R. Estate 4.9 4.9 5.4 5.6 Private Services 5.8 1.5 3.3 5.3 Government Services 5.0 5.4 5.6 4.6 Trade 7.9 8.4 8.6 7.4 Transport., Comm., & Storage 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.0 Service Sector 6.5 8.6 5.5 4.4 Finance Q3 Q2 Q1 2003 2002 Q3
  • Demand (Growth rates, in percent) 2.6 6.4 24.0 5.0 Imports 7.7 2.7 17.4 -4.0 Gross Domestic Capital Formation -0.6 -12.0 -1.5 3.6 Government Consumption 4.9 5.1 4.9 4.3 Personal Consumption 0.0 1.2 3.6 8.1 Exports Q3 Q2 Q1 Q3 2003 2002
  • Capital Formation (Growth rates, in percent) 19.8 6.0 9.0 6.2 Durable Equipment 4.2 3.5 2.1 3.7 Breeding Stocks -23.0 -21.3 -11.7 2.9 Public -11.7 -9.8 -2.2 5.9 Construction 7.7 2.7 17.4 -4.0 Capital Formation 140.9 71.0 385.5 -183.6 Changes in Stocks 2.1 2.7 10.1 9.6 Private Q3 Q2 Q1 2003 2002 Q3
  • Durable Equipment (Growth rates, in percent) 19.8 6.0 9.0 6.2 Durable Equipment 7.7 -0.6 2.7 3.0 Specialized Industries 34.2 49.1 7.0 26.8 Agricultural mach. 29.8 32.2 -2.2 18.3 Tractor other than steam 228.6 500.0 -53.8 133.3 Sugarmill mach 101.2 74.1 7.4 -15.0 Pulp & paper mach 48.9 2.9 14.1 -63.1 Metal working mach 201.0 156.0 41.2 10.5 Water transport 155.6 797.6 - 28.6 Railway transport -7.9 18.0 9.9 -21.9 Transport Equipment 35.7 13.4 24.3 -5.7 Other general industrial mach. 33.9 -12.4 -10.4 216.8 Other electrical mach. & apparatus 24.8 1.5 11.7 21.0 Industrial Machinery and Equipment Q3 Q2 Q1 2003 2002 Q3
  • II. Outlook for 2003-2004
  • 2003-2004 Macroeconomic Environment *As of June 12, 2003 DBCC meeting 10.0 2.0 1.0 (Jan-Oct) 9.5 Exports (%) DBCC Assumptions* -4.7 15.0 1.2 8.0-9.0 4.5-5.5* 26.10 52.0-54.0 FY 2003 -4.2 16.0 1.6 7.5-8.5 4.0-5.0* 23.86 53.0-54.0 FY 2004 -4.6 (Jan-Sep) -5.2 NG Fiscal Balance (as % of GDP) 16.18 1.90 5.432 3.1 24.33 51.60 Actual FY 2002 16.80 (end-Nov) Gross International Reserves (US$bn) 1.2 (Jan-Nov) LIBOR rate, 6 months 6.0 (Jan-Nov) 91 Treasury Bill (%) 3.1 (Jan-Nov) Inflation rate target (%) 27.66 (Jan-Nov) Dubai oil price (US$/Barrel) 54.09 (Jan-Nov) P:$ rate (PhP) Latest Actual 2003
      • Economic fundamentals supportive of stable macroeconomic environment, although risks remain
        • Higher than expected uptick in world oil prices
        • Uncertainty from change in leadership, but this should increasingly clear as platforms are revealed
      • Pick up in world economic growth
      • Normal weather conditions
      • Boost from election spending in first half
    Macroeconomic Conditions: Assumptions
    • Stronger growth will:
    • Boost exports
    • Create higher demand for OFW
    WEO Forecasts 6.5 1.4 3.9 4.1 2004 6.4 Developing Asia 2.0 Japan 2.6 US 3.2 World GDP 2003
  • Early Indicators for Q4 2003 * As per DOF press releases dated Oct. 20 & Nov. 19 31.0 (Oct) -8.7 NG Capital Outlays* 11.0 (Oct) 5.1 OFW Remittance 7.8 (Oct) 0.5 Appliance Sales -12.0 (Oct-Nov) 14.0 Automobile Sales 30.2 (Q4 Forecast) 0.9 DA-BAS Corn Production 11.3 (Oct) -7.97 Tourist Arrivals 3.0 (Oct) 5.6 Meralco (Commercial) -5.5 (Oct) 4.2 Meralco (Industrial) 1.2 (Q4 Forecast) 1.6 DA-BAS Palay Production Latest Q1-Q3 Growth rates, in %
  • Early Indicators for Q4 2003 5.8 (Oct) 6.3 -0.6 -3.3 Manufactures o.w. Electronics Products 6.2 (Oct) 5.1 (Oct) Imports (US$) 10.3 (Oct) 19.7 Mineral Products 18.0 (Oct) 7.2 (Oct) 5.2 (Oct) -9.2 (Oct) -19.7 (Oct) 11.0 3.7 -4.0 20.4 10.6 Capital Goods o.w. Electronics Products Raw Materials & Interm. Goods Mineral Fuel & Lubricants Consumer Goods 6.2 (Oct) 1.0 Exports (US$) 7.6 (Oct) 16.8 Total Agro-based Products 0.2 (Oct) 60.8 Petroleum Products Q4 Q1-Q3 Growth rates, in %
  • Early Indicators for Q4 2003 Jan-Oct 30,062 30,627 30,251 31,524 Employment Level (‘000) Employment by class of workers (g.r., in %) 15.3 10.2 -2.3 3.5 -0.9 120 -13 58 165 Oct ‘02 15.7 10.1 -6.0 0.5 10.0 633 272 364 1,273 Oct ‘03 Underemployment rate Unemployment rate Unpaid family workers Own-account workers Wage and salary workers Services Industry Agriculture Jobs generated (‘000) 2002 2003 1.5 4.8 4.3 0.8 5.7 -5.8 17.0 17.0 907 566 11.4 11.4 653 -18 272 144 341 81
  • 2003-04 Growth Forecast 3.4 3.7 AFF 3.2 2.4-3.0 Industry 5.3 4.9-5.5 Services FY 2003 Q4 2003 Forecast 14.1 3.8-4.0 4.5-4.8 4.2 GDP 22.0 5.4 NFIA GNP
  • Growth Forecasts: Supply Side 5.2-6.0 5.4 GNP 4.9-5.8 4.2 GDP 3.7-4.7 3.4 Agriculture 5.0-5.8 3.2 Industry 7.1-8.0 20.0 Mining & Quarrying 4.6-5.5 5.0 Manufacturing 7.3-7.8 -8.4 Construction 3.0 Emerging FY 2003 3.3-4.2 2004 Forecast Elect, Gas & Water
  • Growth Forecasts: Supply Side 5.7-6.6 5.4 Trade 9.0-9.9 8.5 Trans, Comm & Storage 3.2-4.1 3.0 O. Dwellings & Real Estate 5.7-6.4 6.2 Finance 5.1-6.0 5.0 Private Services 5.5 - 6.3 5.3 Service 1.4 Emerging FY 2003 1.3-2.2 2004 Forecast Government Services
  • Growth Forecasts: Demand Side 3.5-4.5 1.4 Exports 7.1-8.1 6.6 Imports 7.7-8.3 -10.4 of which: Total Construction 6.8-7.4 0.4 Investments 6.2-7.1 -1.7 Government Consumption 5.0 Emerging FY 2003 4.5-5.3 2004 Forecast Private Consumption
  • Thank you.