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Labor Trends
 

Labor Trends

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  • Cannot talk about workforce without first talking about the population. Just about all demographics effect who is in, or not in, the labor force….that includes age, sex, and ethnicity. It includes characteristics of the population like skills, interests, and education. It would be so much easier if everyone could do every job. But it is never that easy, there is seldom a perfect fit. Since 2000 the population in NW added 4,600 residents. The most recent estimate indicates there are 185,400 residents living in the ten counties of NW. Douglas has the greatest population of those counties but Sawyer and Washburn counties added more new residents, over 900 each, and Bayfield, the third smallest, added 640 new residents. Most of the information today will deal with the entire region rather than individual counties. And most of the workforce issues will relate to the R-word…not recession but retention issues. The retention issues I want to cover here are the ones that are inevitable but ones you can prepare for nonetheless. First we’ll look at how the population is aging and how that will effect the labor supply. Second, we’ll look at the current demographics of industries in NW Wisconsin. Third, we’ll see how those changing demographics affects the knowledge and skills of workers currently in jobs in this area.

Labor Trends Labor Trends Presentation Transcript

  • Labor Trends in Northwest Wisconsin
    • In the last 20 years the population increased 6% and the labor force expanded 25%.
    • The northwest population is growing primarily from new residents who move to the area.
    • The population in NW Wisconsin is projected to increase 7% by 2020 … but the labor force will increase only 3 - 4%.
    • By 2020, 23 percent of the population will be over the age of 65.
    Population and Labor Force
  • Historic and Projected Population and Labor Force Source: WI Dept of Admin, Demographic Services, DWD Local Area Unemployment Statistics, OEA
  • Components of population change in Northwest Wisconsin: 2000 - 2005
  • NW Wisconsin Population & Labor Force by Age in 2000 = 89,700 Source: US Census 2000 =143,026
  • Labor Force Participation in 2000 Wisconsin = 69.1% United States = 63.9% Source: US Census Bureau, Census 2000
  • Labor Force Participation by Age Group Source: Census 2000
  • NW Wisconsin Population & Labor Force by Age in 2015 = 97,600 Source: special tabulation using Census 2000 & WI Demographic Services population projections = 158,450 62%
  • Labor Force Distribution by Age 89,700 98,500 92,700
  • Civilian Non-institutional Population Not in the labor force 16+ years old = labor force age population Under 16 years old Not interested in work Civilian Labor Force Working or looking for work
  • Current Population Survey - CPS
    • Conducted nationwide by Census Bureau every month during the week that includes the 12 th day
    • Includes 60,000 households nationwide/1,450 in Wisconsin (same household for a 1 yr period)
    • Survey determines who is:
    • Employed -
    • Worked full or part time for pay or profit
    • Includes 15 hrs of unpaid work for family-run business
    • Temporarily absent from work because of
    • illness vacation
    • bad weather industrial dispute
    • Multiple jobholders are counted only once
    • Unemployed -
    • Did not work at all during the survey week
    • AND Made specific active efforts to find work in the last 4 weeks
    • Were available for work (unless temporarily ill but otherwise employed)
    • Reflects seasonally job holders who enter the labor force in spring & depart in the fall
    • Not in the labor force
    • Retirees
    • Choose to stay at home
    • Students (not working)
    • Marginally attached to labor force
      • looked for work in last 12 months (but not in the last 4 weeks)
      • discouraged job seekers
  • Employed Not in labor force Unemployed Discouraged workers Retired workers Students Family responsibilities Job losers Job leavers New entrants & re-entrants Unpaid family workers Self-employed workers Full time workers Part time workers Temporary workers 68.5% of the population aged 16 yrs or more is either employed or unemployed Northwest labor force participation rate -
  • Labor Force, Employment & Jobs Source: WI DWD, Bureau of Workforce Information ------16%------ ------25%------ ---3%---
    • An average of 92,840 residents in NW Wisconsin were employed in 2005, including self-employed, farmers, owner/operators, and job-holders.
    • There was an average of 74,200 jobs in 2005 - a new high – in NW Wisconsin .
    • Female workers out-number male workers in NW Wisconsin: 50.6 vs 49.4%
    • 43% of the workers in NW Wisconsin are aged 45 years or over.
    • 60% of all workers with a Bachelor’s degree or more are aged 45 years or over.
    Labor Force and Jobs
  • Nonfarm Jobs Added 1980-1990 Northwest Wisconsin Source: DWD, Small County Employment Estimates, 2006 Total = 7,920 Transportation, Comm, Utilities -510 Government -120
  • Nonfarm Jobs Added 1990-2000 Northwest Wisconsin Source: DWD, Small County Employment Estimates, 2006 Total = 14,511
  • Nonfarm Jobs Added in 2005 Northwest Wisconsin Source: DWD, Small County Employment Estimates, 2006 Total = 700
  • Total nonfarm jobs in Northwest Wisconsin 4,500
  • Nonfarm Jobs in 2005 Northwest Wisconsin Source: DWD, Small County Employment Estimates, 2006 Total = 74,230
  • 10 Largest Industry Sectors -45% of the jobs-
    • Ambulatory Health Care Services
    • Food and Beverage Stores
    • Truck Transportation
    • Hospitals
    • Food Manufacturing
    • Education services
    • Executive, Legislative, & General Government
    • Food Services & Drinking Places
    • Wood Product Mfg
    • Nursing and Residential Care Facilities
  • Greater share of employment than in U.S. (higher location quotient)
    • Sector name LQ NW% US%
    • Manufacturing 31 1.2 2.6% 2.2%
    • Manufacturing 32 2.9 10.7% 3.7%
    • Retail trade 44 1.0 9.9% 9.4%
    • Transportation 1.5 4.1% 2.7%
    • Arts, Entertainment, Recreation 1.3 2.2% 1.7%
    • Accommodation & Food Service 1.1 10.6% 9.8%
    • 311 Food
    • 312 Beverage & tobacco
    • 314 Textile products
    • 315 Apparel
    • 316 Leather & related
    • 321 Wood
    • 322 Paper
    • 323 Printing & support
    • 324 Petroleum & coal
    • 325 Chemical
    • 326 Plastics & rubber
    • 327 Nonmetalic mineral
    • 481 Air
    • 482 Rail
    • 483 Water
    • 484 Truck
    • 485 Transit & ground passenger
    • 486 Pipeline
    • 487 Scenic & sightseeing
    • 488 Support activities
    • 441 Motor vehicle & parts
    • 442 Furniture & home
    • 443 Electronics & appliance
    • 444 Bldg mat. & garden equip.
    • 445 Food & beverage
    • 446 Health & personal care
    • 447 Gasoline
    • 448 Clothing & accessories
    • 711 Performing arts, spectator sports
    • 712 Museums, historical sites
    • 713 Amusements, gambling
    • 721 Accommodation
    • 722 Food & drinking
  • Age of Workers with Northwest Employers Source: US Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics
  • Age of Workers with Northwest Manufacturers Source: US Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics All = 4.2%
  • Age of Workers with Northwest Health Care Providers Source: US Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics All = 7.8%
  • Age of Workers with Northwest Retailers Source: US Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics All = 9.3%
  • Age of Workers with Northwest Accommodation and Food Service Source: US Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics All = 15.6%
  • Sex of Workers with NW Employers Source: US Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics
  • 88% 17% 32% >1%
  • 2004 Annual Average Wage Source: DWD, BWI, Census of Employment & Wages U. S. - $39,348 Wisconsin - $34,749
  • Occupation Projections Employment by industry from Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages Industry-occupation matrix Occupation Employment Survey identifies occupations employed in specific industries Used for monthly employment estimates Industry demand projected Hourly wages Estimate for self-employed
  • Occupation group distribution & wages
  • Nonfarm Jobs: Actual & Projected
  • Industry projections 2002 - 2012
  • NW Job Growth by Industry 2002-2012
  • Occupation Distribution in Northwest WI in 2002
  • Occupation Distribution in Northwest WI in 2012
  • Projected new jobs: 2002 - 2012 Source: WI, Office of Economic Advisors, October 2004
  • 16 occupations with most new jobs
    • Truck Drivers, Heavy
    • Nursing Aides
    • Registered Nurses
    • Cashiers
    • Retail Salespersons
    • Waiters/Waitresses
    • Comb. Food Prep. (incl. fast food)
    • Carpenters
    • Personal & Home Care Aides
    • Janitors & Cleaners
    • Office Clerks/General
    • Bartenders
    • Maids/Housekeeping Cleaners
    • Sales Reps, Whlsl & Mfg
    • General & Operations Mgrs
    • Maintenance & Repair Workers, General
  • Occupations with most new jobs 2002-2012 (annual openings)
  • Projected annual openings: 2002 - 2012 Source: WI, Office of Economic Advisors, October 2004
  • 16 occupation with most openings
    • Cashiers
    • Waiters/Waitresses
    • Retail Salespersons
    • Truck Drivers, Heavy/Tractor-Trailer
    • Comb. Food Prep. Including fast food
    • Nursing Aides
    • Registered Nurses
    • Bartenders
    • Carpenters
    • Office Clerks/General
    • Laborers-Freight, Stock, Material Movers: Hand
    • Personal & Home Care Aides
    • Janitors/Cleaners
    • Maids/Housekeeping Cleaners
    • Sales Reps, Whlsl/Mfg
    • Elementary School Teachers, not Special Ed
  • Occupations with most annual openings 2002-2012
  • 16 Occupations with greatest % increase
    • Home Health Aides
    • Personal Care Aides
    • Social/Human Service Assistants
    • Registered Nurses
    • Preschool Teachers
    • Electricians
    • Receptionists & Information Clerks
    • Bus Drivers, School
    • Child Care Workers
    • Counter and Rental Clerks
    • Plumbers, Pipefitters, Steamfitters
    • Hairdressers/Cosmetologists
    • Carpenters
    • Truck Drivers, Heavy & Tractor-Trailer
    • Nursing Aides
    • Child/Family/School Social Workers
  • Jobs added annually by occupations with fastest growth
  • Distribution of jobs by training: 2012 Source: WI DWD, Office of Economic Advisors, Employment Projections
  • Distribution of jobs by training: 2012 Source: WI DWD, Office of Economic Advisors, Employment Projections
  • Projected Job Openings by Training 2002 - 2012 Source: WI DWD, OEA, Employment Projections, 2002-2012
  • NW Education by Age Group Source: US Census 2000
  • Percent with education or training beyond high school: 2000 Wisconsin = 50.5% United States = 51.8% Source: Census 2000, SF3, PCT-25
  • Top occupations (by sex) with post-secondary ed.
    • Elementary/middle school teacher
    • Registered nurse
    • Secretary
    • Bookkeeper/acct. clerk
    • Nurse/home aide
    • Accountant/auditor
    • Office clerk
    • Cashier
    • Customer service rep.
    • Retail salesperson
    • 1 st -line suprv/mgr. retail
    • Carpenter
    • Driver/sales worker
    • Elem./middle schl. teacher
    • Manager
    • 1 st -line suprv. prod. wrkr.
    • Janitor/bldg. cleaner
    • Farmer/rancher
    • Auto service tech/mech.
    • Secondary schl. teacher
  • Percent with Bachelor’s degree and more: 2000 Wisconsin = 22.4% United States = 24.4% Source: Census 2000, SF3, PCT-25
  • Top occupations (by sex) with Bachelor’s degree or more
    • Elementary/middle teacher
    • Registered nurse
    • Secondary teacher
    • Postsecondary teacher
    • Social worker
    • Accountant/auditor
    • Secretary/Adm. assist.
    • Counselor
    • Special ed. teacher
    • Med/hlth service mgr.
    • Elementary/middle teacher
    • Secondary teacher
    • Lawyer
    • Manager
    • Education administrator
    • Postsecondary teacher
    • Clergy
    • Physician/surgeon
    • Accountant/auditor
    • 1 st -line suprv/mgr. retail
  • Beverly Gehrke Labor Market Analyst Dept. of Workforce Development 715-634-5289 [email_address] www.dwd.state.wi.us/oea