Internationalfinancial Management

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Internationalfinancial Management

  1. 1. INBU 4200 INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Professor Michael Palmer Leeds School of Business University of Colorado at Boulder Fall 2007 Lecture 1: Introduction to Course and Globalization
  2. 2. Leading Off: What is your Current Understanding of International Finance? <ul><li>What are the foreign exchange symbols from the previous slide? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>¥, £, and € </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What is the approximate current spot exchange rate for the: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Yen, Pound, Euro. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What has the U.S. dollar done since the beginning of the 2007 against the major currencies of the world (Yen, Pound, and the Euro)? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Strengthened or weakened </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Which of the following currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Argentina Peso, Chinese Renminbi (yuan), Thai baht, South Korean Won, Hong Kong dollar, </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Leading Off: What is your Current Understanding of International Finance? <ul><li>What country currently has the lowest interest rates? Which has the highest interest rates? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>United States, Japan, U.K., Germany, Australia, Switzerland </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The largest foreign exchange market is located in what city? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New York, Tokyo, London, Paris, Singapore </li></ul></ul><ul><li>How many countries are currently in the European Union (EU)? What is its population compared to the US? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>6, 15, 25, 27, 29? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Which of the following 14 countries is not a member of the eurozone (i.e., does not use the euro as its national currency)? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, France, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxemburg, Austria, Finland, Slovenia, The United Kingdom </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Leading Off: Who are the Major Personalities Today? <ul><li>Who is the current chair of the US Federal Reserve? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Henry Paulson </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Who is the current chair of the Bank of England? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gordon Brown, Mervyn King, Tony Blair, Alistair Darling </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Who is the current chair of the European Central Bank? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nicolas Sarkozy, Jacques Chirac, Jean-Claude Trichet, </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Who is the current chair of the Bank of Japan? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shinzo Abe, Toshihiko Fukui, Junichiro Koizumi </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Real Time Spot Currency Rate Quotes <ul><li>Source for real time spot foreign exchange rates: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/forex-charts / </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Go to “live streaming rates.” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Note bid and ask prices (bid first, and ask second). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The ask price is what you can buy 1 unit of the first currency in the two currency sequence for and the bid price is what you can sell 1 unit for: </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>For example: EUR/USD (ask is price to buy 1 euro; bid is price if you sell one euro). </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>For example: USD/JPY (ask is price to buy 1 US dollar, bid is the price if you can sell 1 dollar). </li></ul></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Tracking the U.S. Dollar in 2007 <ul><li>Source for historical exchange rates (charts and data) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http:// fx.sauder.ubc.ca / </li></ul></ul><ul><li>For Charts, go to “Plot Interface” link. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>For Base currency: select U.S. dollar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>For Target currency: select specified foreign currency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Choose appropriate time horizon </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Select Notation: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Price notation = U.S. dollars per 1 unit of the foreign currency (American terms quote) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Volume notation = Foreign currency units per 1 unit of the U.S. dollar (European terms quote). </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>For actual data, go to “Database Retrieval” link. </li></ul>
  7. 7. Currencies Pegged to U.S. Dollar <ul><li>A “currency peg” is an arrangement whereby a government ties its domestic currency’s value to an external currency at a stable rate, e.g., 1 to 1. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Very little market movement is allowed around this pegged rate. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The government pegging intervenes in the market whenever the currency moves above or below the peg to restore its pegged rate. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Selling if it gets too strong and buying if it get too weak. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Argentina Peso <ul><li>Peg set at 1:1 in early 1990s, dropped in 2001 </li></ul>
  9. 9. Chinese Renminbi (aka Yuan) <ul><li>Peg set at 8.28:1 in 1997; dropped in 2005 </li></ul>
  10. 10. Thai Baht <ul><li>Peg set at 25, Peg Dropped in 1997 </li></ul>
  11. 11. South Korean Won <ul><li>Peg set at 800; dropped in 1997 </li></ul>
  12. 12. Hong Kong Dollar: Longest Running Peg: October 1983 – Present @ HKD7.8/USD
  13. 13. Interest Rates, August 15, 2007 <ul><li>Source: http:// www.economist.com /markets/indicators/ </li></ul>
  14. 14. Interest Rates, January 11, 2007
  15. 15. Relationship of Exchange Rates to Interest Rates: Australian Dollar
  16. 16. Relationship of Exchange Rates to Interest Rates: Japanese Yen
  17. 17. Carry Trade Strategy in 2007 <ul><li>A carry trade currency trade strategy involves: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Borrowing in the country with a low interest rate. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Selling that currency on foreign exchange markets for a currency with a high interest rate (short sale). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Investing in the country with the high interest rate. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>A carry trade strategy will tend to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Weaken the low interest rate currency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strengthen the high interest rate currency. </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. Largest Foreign Exchange Market <ul><li>The largest foreign exchange market is located in what city? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New York, Tokyo, London, Paris, Singapore </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Approximately 30% of the world’s daily foreign exchange transactions take place in London. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The daily foreign exchange market is estimated at about $2 trillion dollars. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Thus London accounts for $600 billion per day! </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>New York is second, Tokyo third. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>All foreign exchange markets are OTC markets </li></ul></ul></ul>
  19. 19. European Union Countries <ul><li>How many countries are currently in the European Union? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>6, 15, 25, 27, 29? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>EU began with 6 countries on March 25, 1957 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Treaty of Rome: France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxemburg (first called the European Common Market) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The United Kingdom joined on January 1, 1973. </li></ul><ul><li>Greenland left the EU in 1985. </li></ul><ul><li>Expanded to 15 by the 1990s (East Germany became part of the EU in 1990). </li></ul><ul><li>Grew by 10 more to 25 on May 1, 2004 (including Poland) </li></ul><ul><li>Expanded to 27 with 2 more countries, Bulgaria and Romania, joining on January 1, 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>EU Population = 450 million (US = 300 million) </li></ul>
  20. 20. European Union: Member Countries
  21. 21. Eurozone Countries <ul><li>Which of the following 14 </li></ul><ul><li>countries is not a member of the eurozone (i.e., does not use the euro currency)? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, France, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxemburg, Austria, Finland, Slovenia, The United Kingdom </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The UK is not a member. Slovenia joined the eurozone on January 1, 2007. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>There are now 13 Euro-zone countries </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Note: Cyprus and Malta are expected to join the eurozone on January 1, 2008. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  22. 22. Who are the Major Personalities Today? <ul><li>Who is the current chair of the US Federal Reserve? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Alan Greenspan, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Henry Paulson </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ben Bernanke, </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Who is the current chair of the Bank of England? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gordon Brown, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tony Blair </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Alistair Darling </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mervyn King, </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Who is the current chair of the European Central Bank? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nicolas Sarkozy, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Jacques Chirac, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Jean-Claude Trichet, </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Who is the current chair of the Bank of Japan? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shinzo Abe, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Junichiro Koizumi </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Toshihiko Fukui, </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. What is GLOBALIZATION? <ul><li>What do you think of when you hear, or read this term? </li></ul><ul><li>What are some possible definitions you can offer? </li></ul>
  24. 24. Globalization Defined <ul><li>The act of becoming world wide in scope. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Thus, it can be viewed as an increasingly freer flow of </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Goods, </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Services, </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Companies, </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>People, </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Ideas (technology; R&D), and </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Capital </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>. . . across national borders. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Refer to Appendix 1 for a discussion of the history of globalization, Appendix 2 for examples of globalization by business functions and Appendix 3 for contemporary issues surrounding globalization. </li></ul></ul>
  25. 25. Thomas Friedman’s (The World is Flat) Definition <ul><li>“ Globalization as the inexorable integration of markets, transportation systems, and communication systems to a degree never witnessed before -- in a way that is enabling corporations, countries, and individuals to reach around the world farther, faster, deeper, and cheaper than ever before...” </li></ul><ul><li>Source: http:// www.thomaslfriedman.com/longitudesprologue.htm </li></ul>
  26. 26. Globalization’s Potential Impacts on Business Firms <ul><li>Impacts on the target markets where companies sell and/or buy. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>consumer goods </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>industrial goods, and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>financial services </li></ul></ul><ul><li>I mpacts on where companies source the factors of production for their enterprises : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>capital (where firms finance), </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>technology, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>labor </li></ul></ul>
  27. 27. Globalization’s Potential Impacts on Business Firms <ul><li>Impacts on mergers and acquisitions. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Firms can now be the target of or acquirer of foreign firms. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Buying other firm’s technology, market share, patents, etc. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Expands the “opportunity set” for acquiring firms. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Impacts on types and degree of risk associated with an increasingly global enterprise . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Associated with the unique business and financial risks that confront firms in a global environment. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Exchange rates, global competition, cultural differences, foreign governments, variations in economic environments. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  28. 28. Globalization’s Potential Impacts on Investors <ul><li>Positive Diversification Impacts. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Investors can now construct portfolios consisting of a combination of domestic and foreign issues. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Including both stocks and bonds. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>And in different currencies. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>This can have an impact on a Portfolio’s Systematic Risk. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Systematic risk is the “market risk” associated with any one domestic portfolio. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>For a one market portfolio, this risk is nondiversifiable. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>If asset returns show low correlations across countries, investors can reduce a portfolio’s systematic risk through an internationally diversified portfolio. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Increase risk: For example: exchange rates, country risk, contagion market effects. </li></ul>
  29. 29. Globalization’s Potential Impacts on Countries and Governments <ul><li>Globalization has resulted in countries becoming more open. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Exports as a percent of GDP (1950 to 2003) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Germany: 6.2% to 31.3% </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Mexico: 3.5% to 26.3% </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Canada: 13.9% to 33.4% </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Japan: 2.3% to 10.4% </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>France: 7.7% to 20.3% </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>United States: 3.0% to 6.5% </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Globalization has the potential to exert pressures on domestic rates of inflation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Through import prices. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Impact of China on consumer and commodity prices. </li></ul></ul>
  30. 30. How Does International Business Differ from Domestic? <ul><li>Dealing with: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Different cultures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Different governments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Different legal system and laws </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Different business cultures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Different consumers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Different economies and economic conditions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Different currencies </li></ul></ul>
  31. 31. Dealing with Exchange Rates <ul><li>One of the major differences between global firms and purely domestic firms, is that the former need to deal in different currencies and are therefore subject to possible exchange rate risk. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Exchange rate risk results from a firm having exposure in a foreign currency and that foreign currency moves in a manner detrimental to the firm. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Refer to Appendix 5 for a discussion of the differences between domestic and international finance (including exchange rate risk). </li></ul>
  32. 32. Quick History of Exchange Rates <ul><li>After WWII </li></ul><ul><ul><li>World turns to the US and agrees on a system of stable exchange rates to renew confidence in the global system. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>After Bretton Woods </li></ul><ul><ul><li>World turns to floating exchange rates. </li></ul></ul>
  33. 33. Foreign Exchange Risk <ul><li>C ritical questions for global company: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How will changes in these foreign currencies affect their consolidated financial performance? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Revenues and Costs components. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How volatile are the currencies it is dealing in? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Short term moves and longer term trend changes. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Managers must be aware of this potential volatility and understand the techniques for managing this risk? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>This is a theme we will be developing throughout the course. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>See the next three slides for examples of long term trend changes and intermediate term and short term currency movements. See Appendix 5 for more detail. </li></ul></ul>
  34. 34. Trend Changes: The Euro Against the Dollar <ul><li>Source: http:// fx.sauder.ubc.ca / </li></ul>
  35. 35. Intermediate Moves About the Trend: Euro in 2007
  36. 36. Short Term Moves: British Pound: Noon (MST) January 11, 2007 (Surprise interest rate increase)
  37. 37. Globalization of Financial Markets <ul><li>Definition of Financial Market Globalization Process: The integration of a country's domestic financial system into the international arena. </li></ul><ul><li>And, as a result, individual domestic financial markets become so closely integrated with others that, taken as a whole, they can be considered as a single market. </li></ul><ul><li>Financial market globalization has resulted from </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(1) the liberalization of capital flow restrictions worldwide and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(2) advancing technology (in communications). </li></ul></ul>
  38. 38. The Globalization of Financial Markets: Summary <ul><li>Financial markets now function in many ways as one integral whole covering the globe. </li></ul><ul><li>This is represented by: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Large trading volumes across borders. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Securities of different nations (corporate and government issues) trading in many major financial market centers. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Financial events in one country affect other countries. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Major central bank actions, U.S. stock market. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Today, companies look at funding possibilities in financial markets around the world . </li></ul><ul><li>Today, investors can select from opportunities offered by a vast array of countries . </li></ul>
  39. 39. Appendix 1: The History of Globalization The following slides discuss the history of globalization in general and of financial markets in particular
  40. 40. Quick History of Globalization <ul><li>About 200 years ago: Free Trade Era </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Second British Empire and Industrial Revolution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Last half of the 18 th Century. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New (Free Market) Economic Thought of the Time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Adam Smith (1776) and David Ricardo (1817) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Both showed how countries would benefit from free trade. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>WW I (1914-1918) – 1940s: Abandonment of Free Trade </li></ul><ul><ul><li>High protectionism especially during Great Depression (1929 – early 1940s) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act in U.S. (1930) imposed the highest duties on agricultural products and manufactured goods in U.S. history. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  41. 41. Quick History of Globalization <ul><ul><li>Period Immediately After WWII (1939 – 1945): Slow Return to Globalization Process </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Formation of GATT in 1948 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Goal: To reduced tariffs and expand world trade. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>How: Through trade rounds among member countries. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Bretton Woods Agreements in 1944 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Goal: To restored exchange rate stability. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>How: Return to fixed exchange rates to promote world trade. (created the Bretton Woods International Monetary System) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>International Monetary Fund established in 1944 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Goal: To maintain exchange rate stability by assisting countries who’s currencies were under attack. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>How: By providing short term funds for intervention. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  42. 42. Quick History of Globalization <ul><ul><li>1970s and 1980s: Acceleration of “goods” trade liberalization among world’s industrial countries and eventually among the developing counties. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Accounted for by the continuing impact of GATT, and </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Impact of negotiated trade agreements and regional trading blocs (e.g., the EU and later NAFTA) on cross border trade. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1994: Establishment of WTO </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Goal: To replace GATT as the world’s forum for trade negotiations and the settlement of trade disputes. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>2006/07 Failure of Doha Round (2001 agricultural subsidies, manufacturing and services trade talks). </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>What does this mean for the future of goods globalization? </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  43. 43. Brief History of Financial Market Globalization: Early 20 th Century <ul><li>After the severe financial and economic disruptions of the 1930s, many government policy makers questioned whether free capital flows and liberalized capital markets were desirable. </li></ul><ul><li>As a result, many countries restricted outward capital transfers either because </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(1) they preferred their capital to be invested within their domestic economies or </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(2) because they wished to prevent downward pressure on their exchange rates. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Countries also put severe restrictions on inward investments, many fearing foreign control of their domestic companies, economies and/or financial markets. </li></ul>
  44. 44. Brief History of Financial Market Globalization: Mid 20 th Century <ul><li>During the 1950s and 1960s, each countries’ financial institutions/markets and their regulatory structures evolved in relative isolation from the rest of the world. </li></ul><ul><li>During those years, most countries, including the United States, imposed restrictions on international capital movements. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1964 U.S. Interest Equalization Tax; a 15% tax imposed on foreign borrowers in the US (lifted in 1974). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1965 Foreign Credit Restraint Program restricted the ability of U.S. banks to extend loans to US and foreign borrowers for foreign purposes (lifted in 1974). </li></ul></ul>
  45. 45. Brief History of Financial Market Globalization: Late 20 th Century <ul><li>During the 1980s, capital account liberalization was seen as an essential step on the path to a country’s economic development. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In many ways this was analogous to the earlier reductions in barriers to international trade in goods and services. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Refer to Appendix 3 for a comparison of the pace of goods and financial market globalization since 1980. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Capital account liberalization meant the reduction in restrictions on cross border capital flows. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Portfolio investment and foreign direct investment. </li></ul></ul>
  46. 46. Financial Market Deregulation in the 1980s <ul><li>In the 1980s, the capital markets underwent extensive reforms. </li></ul><ul><li>The markets became increasingly internationalized, as government deregulations allowed foreign-owned banks to extend their operations in local markets. </li></ul><ul><li>There was also extensive restructuring of domestic financial market as interest-rate ceilings were abolished and competition between different financial institution intensified. </li></ul><ul><li>The lead in financial market deregulation occurred in the industrial/developed countries. </li></ul>
  47. 47. Deregulations of Financial Markets Among Developed Countries <ul><li>United States: Abolished capital controls in 1974. </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The removal of the Glass Steagall Act in 1999. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>U.K.: Lifted currency inconvertibility restrictions in 1979. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>U.K. “Big Bang” in 1986 (LSE; stock market deregulations) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Japan: “Big Bang’ in 1996-98 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lifting restrictions on capital movements in and out of Japan including restrictions preventing non-banks from conducting foreign exchange business </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Japan: Phasing in of universal financial institutions legislation (2005/2006) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>EU: Lisbon Agreements (2000): goal of opening up financial markets and promoting single market in financial services by 2010. </li></ul>
  48. 48. Deregulations of Financial Markets Among Developing Countries <ul><li>Compared with the situation in industrial countries, financial market liberalization occurred at a slower pace in developing countries. </li></ul><ul><li>After the “Third World Debt Crisis” (in the early 1980s), bank loans to developing countries dried up and a result these countries needed to attract new sources of capital. </li></ul><ul><li>By the 1990s many developing countries had greatly liberalized their foreign investment regimes, as well as reduced their controls over capital movements. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Individual country stock markets were established or expanded as part of developing country financial sector reforms. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>These markets have been used in many developing countries to facilitate privatization by attracting foreign portfolio capital. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Process slowed somewhat by the Asia currency crisis in 1997. </li></ul>
  49. 49. Appendix 2: Globalization by Business Functions The following are examples of globalization impacts on selling, producing, and financial services on selected U.S. companies
  50. 50. Examples of Business Functions <ul><li>Selling (Products) Function </li></ul><ul><ul><li>McDonalds Corporation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Starbucks </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Production (of Products) Function </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nike Corporation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Financial Services (commercial banking, investment banking, insurance, asset management) Function </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Citigroup </li></ul></ul>
  51. 51. Selling Function <ul><li>McDonalds operates in 120 </li></ul><ul><li>Countries. </li></ul><ul><li>- 66% of 2004 sales were from international operations. </li></ul><ul><li>Starbucks in 2005, had 2,691 international </li></ul><ul><li>retail coffee stores (company owned and </li></ul><ul><li>licensed stores) operating in 34 countries. </li></ul><ul><li>- These represented 26% of their stores. </li></ul><ul><li>- Major markets included Japan, U.K. and Canada </li></ul><ul><li>- International stores accounted for about 16% of Starbucks 2005 earnings. </li></ul>
  52. 52. Production Function <ul><li>Nike: 99% of all its brand apparel is produced outside the United States, in 35 different countries. </li></ul><ul><li>Country Percent </li></ul><ul><li>China 38% </li></ul><ul><li>Indonesia 27 </li></ul><ul><li>Vietnam 18 </li></ul><ul><li>Thailand 16 </li></ul><ul><li>Note: 60% of Nike 2004 revenues from outside U.S. </li></ul>
  53. 53. Financial Services Function <ul><li>Citigroup operates in over </li></ul><ul><li>100 countries in </li></ul><ul><li>banking, insurance, </li></ul><ul><li>and investment services. </li></ul><ul><li>In 2005, 46% of its revenues from operations resulted from activities outside of the United States. </li></ul><ul><li>- Mexico is a major foreign market for Citigroup. </li></ul>
  54. 54. Summary <ul><li>As a result of globalization, business firms are discovering new opportunities beyond their domestic markets : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New markets for their products. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New sources (including capital) for their inputs. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Globalization, however, introduces new and more complex sources of risk . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>These need to be managed to survive. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Governments are also involved in this globalized world through their policies. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Their involvement can hurt or help companies. </li></ul></ul>
  55. 55. Appendix 3: Contemporary Issues Facing the Globalization Process The following are some of the major criticisms of the current globalization process
  56. 56. Contemporary Issues Surrounding the Globalization Process <ul><li>Has the globalization process has been uneven for various categories of countries? </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Claim that rich countries have benefited at the expense of poorer countries. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Claim that rich countries continue to protect their “key sectors” (historically agriculture; textiles). </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Has globalization resulted in greater financial and economic instability? </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Currency and economic crises of the 1990s – on. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Has globalization (countries becoming more connected through trade and financial flows) contributed to this? </li></ul></ul></ul>
  57. 57. Contemporary Issues Surrounding the Globalization Process <ul><li>Has globalization resulted in a disruptive level of outsourcing? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A “political” issue in many developed (industrial) countries. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>United States, Western Europe, Japan </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Where are the major country outsourcing sites? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Production: China </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Services: India </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Question: Unfair trading or comparative advantage? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Suggested follow up reading: The World is Flat , by Thomas Friedman (2005). </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Discusses the rise and issues surrounding globalization (and outsourcing). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Concludes: “Economic stability [will not] be a feature” of the 21 st century. </li></ul></ul>
  58. 58. Appendix 4: Comparing the Pace of Trade and Financial Globalization The following slide is from a 2004 study which compared the percent of countries identified as opening their economies to trade and to financial flows. It reveals that the pace of financial market globalization has been slower than that of trade globalization.
  59. 59. Measuring Trends Globalization <ul><li>Globalization study by Kose, Prasad, and Terrones (December, 2004 in Finance & Development ) looked at 85 countries over the last 20+ (1980 – 2003) years. </li></ul><ul><li>Findings: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Trade (Exports and Imports) liberalization rose from 30% to 85% (of sample) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Financial (Capital Flows) liberalization rose from 20% to 55% (of sample) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Thus, more countries in the sample had engaged in trade liberalization than financial market liberalization. </li></ul></ul>
  60. 60. Appendix 5: Why is International Finance Different from Domestic Finance? The following slides illustrate the differences between a purely domestic business and a global (international) firm
  61. 61. Why is International Finance Difference from Domestic Finance? <ul><li>Foreign Exchange Risk </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Risks associated with doing business in different currencies. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Political Risk </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Policies of different national governments can affect corporate performance (e.g., exchange rate policies, tax and profit remittance policies, monetary policy). </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Expanded Opportunities for Financing and Investing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Financing and investment options now expand beyond domestic borders. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cultural Differences </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Country differences in “equity” cultures and “corporate” cultures complicate global business. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Corporate Governance and Regulation Differences </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Country differences in the relationship between managers and investors (owners) as well as differences in regulations. </li></ul></ul>
  62. 62. Foreign Exchange Risk <ul><li>Global companies take positions in foreign currencies as a result of their global activities. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Foreign currency denominated assets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Resulting from subsidiary sales overseas, export accounts receivable and owned overseas financial assets </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Foreign currency denominated liabilities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Results from subsidiary liabilities overseas, import accounts payable and overseas financial liabilities </li></ul></ul></ul>
  63. 63. Foreign Exchange Risk <ul><li>C ritical questions for global company : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How will changes in these foreign currencies affect their consolidated financial performance? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Revenues and Costs components. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How volatile are the currencies it is dealing in? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Short term moves and longer term trend changes. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Next four slides show how currencies are subject to short term moves and longer term trend changes. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Managers must be aware of this potential volatility and understand the techniques for managing this risk? </li></ul></ul>
  64. 64. Short Term Change in Exchange Rate: British Pound, January 11, 2007 <ul><li>The Bank of England surprised markets on Thursday, January 11, 2007, by raising interest rates a quarter percentage point to 5.25 percent, saying the economy had less spare capacity and price pressures were increasing. </li></ul><ul><li>Only one of the 50 analysts polled by Reuters had predicted the move, which took borrowing costs to their highest level in 5-1/2 years. </li></ul><ul><li>Most had thought the central bank would wait at least another month to see whether wages were heading up in the new year and for a clearer reading on the consumer sector. </li></ul><ul><li>The pound rose from $1.935 to over $1.950 within a matter of 15 minutes. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>See next slide for chart. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chart trades the exchange rate on January 11 from 7:00 am until around 1:00 pm. Note the movement around noon at the time of the announcement. </li></ul></ul>
  65. 65. Pound Exchange Rate: January 11, 2007
  66. 66. Longer term Trend Changes in Exchange Rates <ul><li>Currencies are also subject to changes in longer term trends. </li></ul><ul><li>These occur as changes in relative economic data occur and are priced into prices. </li></ul><ul><li>For example the Euro has experienced two major trends since its introduction on January 1, 1999. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Weakening until early 2002 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strengthening since early 2002 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Note that there have been shorter term trend reversals during these two major periods (e.g., in 2005). </li></ul></ul>
  67. 67. The Euro Against the Dollar <ul><li>Source: http:// fx.sauder.ubc.ca / </li></ul>
  68. 68. Currency Volatility: Summary <ul><li>Today, major currencies appear to be potentially volatile, in that they are: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Subject to longer term trend reversals. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Subject to (sudden) short term movements. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Why? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rates are constantly adjusting to new information and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Governments are less (or no longer) involved in managing (i.e., supporting) their currencies. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Market forces, therefore, determine these rates. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>As a result, exchange rates have become more volatile because market forces now play a dominant role in setting prices and establishing trends. </li></ul>
  69. 69. Political Risk <ul><li>Involves the role and activities of a foreign government in affecting the financial performance of a global firm. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Foreign exchange market. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Managing rates and government intervention. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Profit repatriation process. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Government regulations determine how easy (or difficult) it is to remove profits from foreign operations. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Taxation policies. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Governments set withholding taxes on subsidiary dividends paid out of country to parent companies and negotiate tax treaties. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Monetary policies. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Government policies will affect the cost of borrowing local capital. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Contract enforcement. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Governments establish legislation for the protection of private property and contracts. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  70. 70. Global Differences in Monetary Policy: Central Bank Target Rates, August 2006 <ul><li> Rate Difference from U.S. </li></ul><ul><li>United States 5.25% --- </li></ul><ul><li>Japan 0.25% -5.00% </li></ul><ul><li>Switzerland 1.27% -3.98% </li></ul><ul><li>Euro Zone 3.00% -2.25% </li></ul><ul><li>Canada 4.25% -1.00% </li></ul><ul><li>South Korea 4.50% - 0.75% </li></ul><ul><li>United Kingdom 4.75% +0.50% </li></ul><ul><li>Australia 6.00% +0.75% </li></ul><ul><li>Russian Federation 11.50% +6.25% </li></ul><ul><li>Brazil 14.75% +9.50% </li></ul><ul><li>Source: http:// www.bis.org/cbanks.htm </li></ul>
  71. 71. Expanded Financial Opportunities <ul><li>Borrowers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Now have access to financial markets all over the world, including: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Individual national markets and offshore markets. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Includes short term borrowing options, long term debt options, and equity financing. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Investors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Now have access to financial assets all over the world, including </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Government and corporate debt, and corporate equity. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Global borrowing and global investing carries new risks not experienced with domestic activities. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Exchange rate risk. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Information (not understanding these markets) risk. </li></ul></ul>
  72. 72. “ Corporate Structural” Differences <ul><li>Two distinct and different corporate models exist: </li></ul><ul><li>Shareholder Wealth Structure (Anglo-American or Anglo-Saxon) Model: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Believes that a firm’s objective should be to maximize shareholder wealth. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>These countries include the US, Canada, Australia, United Kingdom. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Corporate Wealth Structure (Non-Anglo-American) Model: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Believe that a firm’s objective should be to maximize corporate wealth (which includes all stakeholders; e.g., employees, community, banks, owners) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>These countries include the EU, Japan and Latin American countries. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>There is some evidence that some corporate wealth model countries are adopting aspects of the shareholder wealth model. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Japan’s changing corporate structure and corporate objective is one example </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Many Japanese companies are now concern with the “bottom line.” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Have hired non-Japanese to “modernize” their companies (e.g., Sony). </li></ul></ul></ul>
  73. 73. Shareholder Wealth Structure <ul><li>This model focuses on the importance of shareholders to the corporate structure. </li></ul><ul><li>Wealth is strictly “financial.” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Within this context, management tools measure impact of their decisions on equity (common stock) values. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Capital budgeting techniques: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Net Present Value </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Internal Rates of Return </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Aimed at securing returns greater than the firm’s cost of capital and thereby increasing returns to shareholders. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Within this model, there is an acceptance of “hostile” takeovers to ensure appropriate financial performance. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Again to the benefit of shareholders. </li></ul></ul>
  74. 74. Corporate Wealth Structure <ul><li>Definition of corporate wealth is much broader than the Shareholder Wealth (Anglo-American) viewpoint </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Consideration given to the implications of strategic moves affecting all parties such as: human resources, community, state, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Advisory Committees important in Europe (part of corporate structures and involved by law in corporate decisions) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Strict labor laws (e.g., on firing employees) in Europe. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Life time employment concept in Japan in early post war years. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Weakened substantially in Japan in the 1990s. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Less attention in Japan of Anglo Saxon capital budgeting techniques; especially equity cost of capital. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Came about because of: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Distrust of Anglo-American capitalism especially in Post World War II Europe (thus, a search for the “Third-Way”). </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Friendly takeovers are the rule (although this is changing as well, in Japan and in Europe). </li></ul>
  75. 75. “ Equity” Cultural Differences <ul><li>Anglo Saxon countries (U.S., U.K., Canada) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Generally have a well developed equity culture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Understanding and acceptance of ownership and, especially, equity capital risk. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Thus, this sector is an important source of funds for corporate financing. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>But, perhaps, it also affects corporate goals. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Management tends to focus on shareholders. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Non-Anglo Saxon Countries (Continental Europe and many Asian countries) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Relatively poorly developed equity culture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Thus, risk is not as well understood or tolerated. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Thus there is a reliance on debt and bank financing. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>And, corporate goals become more diverse with a wider range of stakeholders. </li></ul></ul>
  76. 76. Corporate Governance <ul><li>Defined: “The financial and legal framework for regulating the relationship between managers and owners .” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Very important to shareholders (as owners of firms). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Thus, historically important in Anglo-American markets; but less so in other markets. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Also involves the issue of financial market transparency (important information available to all at the same time). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>This too is very important to shareholders. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Corporate governance has become (relatively) well defined in the United States. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Undoubtedly recent abuses have contributed to this: </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Waste Management and Sunbeam (1998) and Enron (2001). </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Abuses resulted in passage of Sarbanes-Oxley Act (2002) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>But there is no similar regulation in foreign countries. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Issue of applying this act to foreign companies in the U.S. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>

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