Increase Retail Sales Per Capita Only In The Apparel Sector
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  • Good afternoon, thank-you for inviting me. I was asked to talk this afternoon about my research as it relates to this position, which includes extension. So I want to talk about one on-going research project, some issues that arise for rural areas, and an extension program that could be designed to help local communities and the state address. Some years ago, when I was on the faculty at Virginia Tech, a colleague asked me to do an extension program with him in Southwest Virginia. During the program, someone remarked that a lot of retirees were moving into the area and asked me if that was good or bad for the area. At the time I was aware of : 1)Demographic studies showing that retirees were moving to rural from urban areas, and 2)A few studies that looked at the economic impacts of migrating retirees. But these studies seemed to be mainly about Florida and Arizona, tourism areas, and the question I was getting was for Southwest Virginia, hardly a popular tourism area and quite poor. I replied with what little I knew and decided that I needed to know more. That began a research project that is on-going.

Increase Retail Sales Per Capita Only In The Apparel Sector Presentation Transcript

  • 1. RETIREES IN RURAL AREAS: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE RURAL ECONOMY Judith I. Stallmann January 24, 2002
  • 2. Beginning a Research Project
    • An overview paper
      • Helps me organize what is known in the area—more detail than a standard literature review.
      • Pinpoint where further research is needed.
  • 3. Types of Retirees
    • Amenity
    • Assistance
    • Aging in Place
    • Upper and middle (some lower) income, newly retired, healthy, married
    • Middle and lower income, older, poor health, widowed
    • Middle and lower income, all ages, mix of health and marital statuses
  • 4. Retirement Communities
    • Resource amenity
    • Planned
    • Seasonal
    Old home town Regional center Continuing care
  • 5. Definitions
    • We defined a retirement community as having a net in-migration of retirees.
    • We used a sub-county definition.
    • This definition does not include communities with a high percentage of retirees who age in place.
  • 6. Retirement Communities
    • Resource amenity
    • Planned
    • Seasonal
    • Natural or man-made amenity
    • Natural and social amenity, planned
    • Natural amenity—climate
  • 7. Retirement Communities, cont.
    • Old home town
    • Regional center
    • Continuing care
    • Social ties & living assistance
    • Social ties & living assistance, man-made amenities
    • Living assistance & medical care
  • 8. Typology
    • Show how the same community had different names
    • Provide an exhaustive list of types of retirement communities
    • Show the type(s) of retirees attracted to each community
  • 9. Uses to communities
    • Allow community to assess their potential to attract retirees, the type of retiree they might attract and the type of recruiting needed.
    • Existing retirement centers to assess whether retain their attractive features.
    • Analyze their future prospects, both positive and negative.
  • 10. Future Issues
    • Resource amenity
    • Planned
    • Seasonal
    • Old home town
    • Regional center
    • Continuing care
    • Growth management, loss of amenity
    • Growth management, infrastructure quality
    • Seasonal demands and congestion
    • Development of critical mass
    • Development of critical mass
    • Financial solvency
  • 11. Potential demographic impacts Continuing care Regional Old home Seasonal Planned Amenity Bust Boomers Depression
  • 12. Predicted demographic impacts + + + Continuing care M-- /S+ + -- Regional M-- /S+ + 0 Old home -- + -- Seasonal -- + -- Planned -- + -- Amenity Bust 2030 + Boomers2010-30 Depression 1990-2010
  • 13. Predicted impacts 0 -- -- Continuing care 0 0 -- Regional -- 0 0 Old home 0 -- -- Seasonal R-- / U+ -- -- Planned -- -- -- Amenity Living Preference Assets & Housing Soc. Sec . & Pensions
  • 14. Quasi-experimental design to
    • Compare impacts of wealthier and poorer retirees
    • Compare impacts as retirees age
    • Estimate both economic and fiscal impacts
  • 15. Five groups of retirees
    • All persons 65 and older: assumes homogeneity of elderly (the comparison group)
    • 65-75: young, healthy, active, married;
    • 76 and older: aging, poor health, more likely widowed elderly--assistance seekers;
    • Income below $20,000: low-income elderly, those who who age in-place;
    • Income over $50,000: retirees most likely to migrate from an urban to a rural area--amenity seekers.
  • 16. Findings
    • All groups generate positive economic impacts
    • Some of the new jobs go to the elderly
    • Lower population impacts than previous studies
    • Retail impacts differ
    • All groups had positive fiscal impacts, but there were differences
  • 17. Per capita retail sales impacts
    • High-income: increase per capita retail sales most.
    • Low-income: increase retail sales per capita only in the apparel sector; high-income: decrease apparel sales.
    • Over 75: increase per capita retail sales only in apparel and drug stores.
    • Both high-income and young retirees:
    • increase per capita retail sales in the building supply sector.
  • 18. Fiscal impacts are positive
    • Elderly present few new demands on most local expenditure categories.
    • Younger retirees tend to have lower per capita government costs than do older. Aging affects the mix of demand for public goods.
  • 19. Fiscal impacts issues
    • Accounting stance is important. The results would not be the same for state or federal governments, which bear different costs, such as health care.
    • The elderly may also affect public budgets by lobbying local officials.
  • 20. By late 1990s ½ of rural counties had declining numbers of elderly
  • 21. Declining numbers of elderly
    • Net migration of retirees is now rural to urban.
    • Years of rural out-migration by young, mean currently a very small cohort of new retirees in rural areas.
    • When very elderly die, the cohort of new retirees (natural and migrant) is not large enough to replace those who die.
  • 22. Social Security has been described as the largest and most successful rural development program.
  • 23. But if we have declining numbers of retirees in rural areas, this has implications, not just for the retirement communities, but for the entire rural economy.
  • 24. Because of the high percentage of retirees in rural areas (even if they are not a retirement community), retirees have provided a stable economic base for the community.
  • 25. Extension: Retirement communities
    • Determine what type of retirement community they are, or if they have potential.
    • Demographics and implications for growth (or decline) over different time periods
    • Anticipate issues if they continue to grow, or decline, including demands that retirees make on both public sector and private.
  • 26. Extension: Rural communities
    • Communities that are not “retirement” communities, but that for years have had a stable to increasing percentage of elderly who were a “base” in the community.
    • These are most likely the counties that have a decline in the absolute number of the elderly.
  • 27. Extension: Rural communities
    • Their demand for housing–most retirees live in their own homes--maintained property values in communities and local tax rolls.
    • The retiree population increases demand for certain services, for example medical, which non-retirees also use .
  • 28. Extension: State
    • Impact on the state of declining numbers of rural retirees.
    • State-response to declining retirees in rural areas?
    • State response to recruitment activities of communities. Does it want to encourage or restrain communities because of costs to the state?
  • 29. Research agenda
    • Characteristics of counties with declining numbers of elderly versus stable, or increasing.
    • Impacts on communities (multipliers work in reverse) if the number of retirees declines?
    • State versus local economic and fiscal impacts.
    • State and local policy on attracting retirees and on adjustments to declining numbers of retirees.
  • 30. RETIREES IN RURAL AREAS: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE RURAL ECONOMY Judith I. Stallmann January 24, 2002
  • 31.