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Gary Gereffi Europe
 

Gary Gereffi Europe

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    Gary Gereffi Europe Gary Gereffi Europe Presentation Transcript

    • Europe and Global Value Chains Gary Gereffi, Duke University Global Apparel/Clothing Europe Conference at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill October 15-16, 2004
    • 4 Themes
      • Apparel Value Chains: Dispersion and Consolidation
      • The Emergence of Central and Eastern Europe
      • The Impact of Quota Phase Out in 2005
      • What Is Europe’s Future Role in Global Apparel Sourcing?
      • Apparel Value Chains:
      • Dispersion and Consolidation
    • Apparel Value Chain: Dispersion
      • 1970s - Global buyers source from East Asia
          • Retailers –JC Penney, Kmart, The Limited, Gap
          • Brands – Liz Claiborne, Nike, Polo, Calvin Klein
      • 1980s – U.S. buyers use East Asian firms to source from new location s under quota system
      • 1990s – Central and Eastern Europe expand OPT with EU
      • Mid-1990s – Post-NAFTA: Mexico shifts from assembly (maquilas) to full-package production for USA
      • 2000 – AGOA grants tariff preferences to sub-Saharan Africa
      • 2005 – Quota phase out … and global consolidation!
    • Apparel Value Chain: Consolidation
      • Buyers
        • - Wal-mart is largest U.S. apparel retailer and buys 14% of all Bangladesh garment exports
      • Suppliers
        • Li & Fung (Hong Kong trading company) has offices in 56 countries and 400 factory relationships
        • Supply chain rationalization: fewer, larger factories
      • Countries
        • Apparel exports from China account for 20% of world total ($41.2 B in 2001)
    • Global Consolidation: China and Wal-Mart
    • Figure 1: Northeast Asia's Apparel Exports to the World (SITC 84), 1985-2001 Source: World Trade Analyzer, based on United Nations data for SITC 84 (“Articles of apparel and clothing accessories”).
    • Figure 2: Shifts in the Regional Structure of US Apparel Imports from 1990 to 2003 1 The rings indicate the share of total U.S. imports in U.S. dollars by partner country: 1. 10% + 2. 6.0% - 9.9% 3. 4.0% - 5.9% 4. 2.0% - 3.9% 5. 1.0% - 1.9% Total value of U.S. clothing imports was $25.0 billion in 1990 and $68.1 billion in 2003. 1 The 2003 position corresponds to the ring where the country’s name is located; the 1990 position, if different, is indicated by a small circle. The arrows represent the magnitude and direction of change over time. Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. imports for consumption, customs value. Coming on Strong Jordan Peru Colombia Russia Lesotho Central America and the Caribbean Northeast Asia Southeast Asia Europe China 1 2 3 4 5 Hong Kong South Korea Taiwan Thailand Indonesia India Turkey Italy Macau North America South Asia Pakistan Bangladesh Sri Lanka Malaysia Philippines Singapore Canada Mexico Guatemala El Salvador Costa Rica Honduras Dominican Republic Cambodia Vietnam
    • The Emergence of Central and Eastern Europe
    • Table 1
    • Table 2
    • Table 3
    • Figure 3: Shifts in the Regional Structure of EU 15 Apparel Imports from 1990 to 2001 1 This chart excludes intra-European trade among the 15 member states of the EU (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom). Total apparel imports are for the EU countries. Source: World Trade Analyzer, based on United Nations data for SITC 84 (“Article of apparel and clothing accessories”). The rings indicate the share of total European imports in U.S. dollars by partner country: 1. 10% + 2. 6.0% - 9.9% 3. 4.0% - 5.9% 4. 2.0% - 3.9% 5. 1.0% - 1.9% Total value of extra-regional European clothing imports was $22.8 billion in 1990 and $51.3 billion in 2001. Southeast Asia Africa 1 2 3 4 5 H Kong Turkey China Eastern Europe and ex-USSR Other Europe Northeast Asia North America South Asia Tunisia India Morocco Poland Romania Bangladesh Indonesia Czech Republic Hungary Thailand Pakistan Sri Lanka Switzerland USA Taiwan Bulgaria Malaysia South Korea Mauritius Vietnam Lithuania Singapore
    • Table 4 Top 10 Suppliers of Apparel to the European Union -- 1989, 1994, 2000 (% of total EU apparel imports)
    • Table 5 Major Apparel Trading Partners in East-Central Europe and the European Union, 2000 (% of total apparel exports to EU)
      • The Impact of Quota
      • Phase Out in 2005
    • Figure 4: Shifts in the Regional Structure of Japanese Apparel Imports from 1990 to 2001 1 2 3 4 5 Europe Northeast Asia North America Southeast Asia China Hong Kong Italy South Korea USA Vietnam France Thailand United Kingdom Indonesia Taiwan N.B.: From 1990 to 2001, South Korea’s share of Japan’s apparel imports fell from 29 percent to 4.3 percent, while China’s import share of the Japanese apparel market grew from 19.3 percent to 66.6 percent. Source: World Trade Analyzer, based on United Nations data for SITC 84 (“Articles of apparel and clothing accessories”). The rings indicate the share of total Japanese imports in U.S. dollars by partner country: 1. 25% + 2. 10.0% - 24.9% 3. 4.0% - 9.9% 4. 2.0% - 3.9% 5. 1.0% - 1.9% Total value of Japanese clothing imports was $8.6 billion in 1990 and $19.9 billion in 2001.
    • In 2005, Multi-Fiber Agreement Ends Jan. 1, 1995 16% Integration Jan. 1, 1998 Another 17% Integration Jan. 1, 2002 Another 18% Integration Jan. 1, 2005 100% Integration MFA (1974 – 1994) ATC (1995 – 2004) Quota Abolition from 2005 Source: World Trade Organization.
    • U.S. Integration Schedule Established by CITA   (Committee for the Implementation of Textile Agreements)
    • Table 6 Source: Financial Times , July 19, 2004, p. 11.
    • Table 7 Source: Financial Times , July 19, 2004, p. 11.
    • MAJOR TRENDS IN THE POST-QUOTA WORLD
      • China will benefit most from end of MFA
      • Consolidation is likely to accelerate
        • More mega-factories will emerge post-2005
        • Retailers will cut down on the number of sourcing countries
      • Remaining factories will have to provide higher level services (logistics, customs clearance, and product design)
      • Time to market considerations will allow regional producers to maintain a role in apparel sourcing
      • Pressures for “ethical sourcing,” corporate codes of conduct, independent monitoring and labor standards will grow
      • What Is Europe’s Future Role
      • in Global Apparel Sourcing?
    • Research Questions
      • What are the distinctive features of full-package production in Eastern and Central Europe?
      • Does full-package apparel production constitute upgrading or downgrading for ECE economies?
      • How extensive are the benefits to local workers and firms of OPT and full-package production within the ECE region?
    • Policy Issues
      • How will the major apparel exporting countries adjust to quota phase outs?
      • What can governments and EU authorities do to promote upgrading within the apparel value chain of Eastern & Central Europe?
      • What policies and institutional conditions foster industrial diversification and inter-chain upgrading beyond textiles & apparel?