Foreign Competition, Mainly The Apparel Industry.
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Foreign Competition, Mainly The Apparel Industry.

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  • ***Presentation*** The BLS’ Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections (OOSEP) estimates the growth and decline in jobs, output, and labor force over time. A principle use of this information is to help individuals choose careers and help education and training officials understand future workforce needs. This slide series presents an overview of the 2006-2016 projections. The projections cover the Nation as a whole. State-level employment projections are developed by each State. Presents underlying assumptions and model-based findings Projections are based on a long-term view of the economy Assumes a long-run full-employment economy 10 year projection; updated every two years

Foreign Competition, Mainly The Apparel Industry. Foreign Competition, Mainly The Apparel Industry. Presentation Transcript

    • An Economic Perspective on the Prospects for HVACR:
    • A Future in the Green Economy
    Richard J. Holden Regional Commissioner, San Francisco Bureau of Labor Statistics March 17, 2008
  • Today’s Presentation
    • The Economy and Jobs: A Long View
    • Some Factors in Play in a Green Economy
    • Occupational Aspects
      • Projections
      • Earnings Prospects
  • Employment Outlook: 2006-16
    • Present underlying assumptions and model-based findings
    • Projections are based on a long-term view of the economy
    • Assumes a long-run full-employment economy
    • 10 year projection; updated every two years
  • Projections process Labor Force Aggregate Economy Industry Output Industry Employment Occupational Demand Industry Final Demand
  • Employment Outlook: 2006-16
    • Labor force
    • Economic growth
    • Industry employment
    • Occupational employment
  • Live births, 1920-2006 Baby boomers Millions of births Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  • Immigration has been rising since WWII Source: U.S. Census Bureau Millions of immigrants
  • Population growth rates Annual rates of change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Projected Civilian non-institutional population, age 16 and over
  • Population and labor force Millions of persons Population Labor force Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Projected Projected
  • Labor force growth Millions of persons Percent change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Projected Projected
  • Population and labor force pyramid, 2006 Labor force Population Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 16-19 10-15 5-9 0-4 Age Millions 12 10 8 6 4 0 2 12 10 8 6 4 0 2 Men Women
  • Population and labor force pyramid, projected 2016 Labor force Population Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 16-19 10-15 5-9 0-4 Age Millions 12 10 8 6 4 0 2 12 10 8 6 4 0 2 Men Women
  • The baby boom and labor force participation rates, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016 Baby boomers in 2016 Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Projected 2016 2006 1996
  • Labor force participation rates Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent Total Men Women Projected 1999 60%
  • Long-term growth rate of the labor force, by decade Average annual rates of change Projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Labor force participation rates of men Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Labor force change by age cohort Projected change in thousands, 2006-16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 65 and over 55 to 64 45 to 54 35 to 44 25 to 34 16 to 24
  • Share of the labor force by age cohort Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent distribution Projected
  • Civilian labor force participation rates of men and women aged 55-64 Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Women Men
  • Civilian labor force participation rates of men and women aged 65-69 Percent Women Men Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Labor force by race Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent of labor force
  • Share of the labor force, by ethnicity Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent of labor force
  • Demographic changes, projected 2006-2016
    • Projected slowdown of labor force growth
    • Retirement of the baby boom generation
    • Increasing diversity of the U.S. workforce
    • Significantly higher levels of immigration than in the last twenty years
  • Employment Outlook: 2006-16
    • Labor force
    • Economic growth
    • Industry employment
    • Occupational employment
  • Selected economic variables Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics GDP (Annual growth rate, projected 2006-16) Unemployment rate, 2016 (Assumed) Productivity (Annual growth rate, projected 2006-16)
  • Historic and projected GDP growth rates Annual rates of change Civilian non-institutional population, age 16 and over Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Projected
  • Unemployment rate Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Projected
  • Inflation and labor productivity Inflation Labor Productivity Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Average annual percent change Projected Projected
  • Highlights: Economic growth
    • Continuing economic growth
    • Business investment and export growth
    • Productivity growth that is still high by historical standards
  • Employment Outlook: 2006-16
    • Labor force
    • Economic growth
    • Industry output and employment
    • Occupational employment
  • Job growth can be viewed in two ways Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 11 66 113,000 90,300 1,003,000 137,000 2006 Projected 2006-16 Projected 2006-16
  • Total employment and output, 1986-2016 Output Employment Projected
  • Total employment Millions of jobs Projected Total employment Wage and salary employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Projected
  • Employment growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Millions of nonagriculture wage and salary jobs Goods-producing Service-providing Projected Projected
  • Total employment and output, 2006 Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Goods-producing sectors; Total employment and output, 2006 Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Industry employment Thousands of nonfarm wage-and-salary jobs, 2006 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Service Providing Goods Producing
  • Fastest-growing industry sectors Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent change, projected 2006-16 Service Providing Goods Producing
  • Industry sector employment change Employment change in thousands Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Service Providing Goods Producing
  • Industries with largest employment growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment change in thousands
  • Industries with fastest-growing employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent change
  • Industry sectors projected to decline Thousands of jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Industries with projected job losses Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment change in thousands, projected 2006-16
  • Employment in manufacturing, January 1955 to 2016 Seasonally adjusted, in thousands Projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Shaded areas indicate a recession
  • Industries with faster-than-average growth in output and employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Annual average percent change in employment, projected 2006-16
  • Employment Outlook: 2006-16
    • Labor force
    • Economic growth
    • Industry employment
    • Occupational employment
  • There are 22 occupational groups
    • There are 10 occupational groups that are projected to grow faster than average (>13%)
    • Together, they:
      • Accounted for 32% of employment in 2006, and
      • Are projected to account for 56% of employment change 2006-16
  • Occupational groups Percent change, projected 2006-16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Occupational groups Percent change, projected 2006-16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Occupational groups Thousands of jobs, projected 2006-2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Occupational groups Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Thousands of jobs, projected 2006-16
  • Occupational groups Thousands of jobs, projected 2006-16
  • Employment of service occupations Percent distribution Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Employment in service occupations Thousands of employees Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Percent change in employment, service occupations Projected 2006-16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Numeric change in employment, service occupations Thousands of employees, projected 2006-16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Occupational groups: replacement needs and employment growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Millions of jobs, projected 2006-16
  • Occupations with large numbers of job openings due to net replacements Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Thousands of jobs, projected 2006-16
  • Fastest growing occupations Percent change, projected 2006-16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Occupations with the most job growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Numerical change in thousands, projected 2006-16
  • Occupations with largest employment declines Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Numerical change in thousands, projected 2006-16
  • Most new jobs in occupations usually requiring short- or moderate-term on-the-job training Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Thousands of jobs, projected 2006-16
  • Most new jobs in occupations usually requiring an associate degree or post-secondary vocational award Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Thousands of jobs, projected 2006-16
  • Occupations with large employment growth usually requiring work experience or long-term on-the-job training Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Thousands of jobs, projected 2006-16
  • Top ten occupations generally requiring long-term on-the-job training that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2006 median annual earnings Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Top ten occupations generally requiring moderate-term on-the-job training that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2006 median annual earnings Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Top ten occupations generally requiring an associate degree that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2006 median annual earnings Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Top ten occupations generally requiring short-term on-the-job training that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2006 median annual earnings Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Computer and engineering high growth, high earnings occupations projected to have the most new jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment change (In thousands)
  • Health-related (associate degree or less) high growth, high earnings occupations projected to have the most new jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment change (In thousands)
  • Education-related high growth, high earnings occupations projected to have the most new jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment change (In thousands)
  • Repair, maintenance, production, and transportation high growth, high earnings occupations projected to have the most new jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment change
  • Construction-related high growth, high earnings occupations projected to have the most new jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment change
  • Factors Affecting HVAC Employment
    • Energy Costs
    • Policy Initiatives—GH Gas Initiatives
    • Building Stock
    • Replacement Demand
    • Completers
    • Regional Differences
  • Residential Prices Will Stay High
  • Non-Mall Buildings by Activity, 2003
  • Buildings by Age of Construction
  • Occupational groups: replacement needs and employment growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Projected Growth for 2006-16
  • HVAC Program Completers by Degree Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National (2005 – 2006)
  • HVAC Occupational Employment Projections and Wages by State U.S. HVAC Employment 2006 Wages - $37,660 Employment Change – 19.0% 2016 Employment – 321,058
  • Top paying states for HVAC installers and mechanics 0.10% $47,640 $22.90 2,650 Minnesota 0.20% $48,300 $23.22 7,850 New Jersey 0.20% $48,950 $23.53 6,330 Massachusetts 0.07% $49,490 $23.80 410 District of Columbia 0.12% $53,410 $25.68 370 Alaska Percent of State employment Annual mean wage Hourly mean wage Employ-ment State
  • Industries with high employment for HVAC installers and mechanics $39,770 $19.12 4,990 Elementary and Secondary Schools $43,030 $20.69 8,290 Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment (except Automotive and Electronic) Repair and Maintenance $43,890 $21.10 9,330 Hardware, and Plumbing and Heating Equipment and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers $40,980 $19.70 12,120 Direct Selling Establishments $38,570 $18.54 168,650 Building Equipment Contractors Annual mean wage Hourly mean wage Employment Industry
  • Top paying industries for HVAC installers and mechanics * Estimates not released $53,800 $25.87 260 Aerospace Product and Parts Mfg $54,040 $25.98 230 Scientific Research and Development Services $58,780 $28.26 30 Converted Paper Product Mfg $58,880 $28.31 * Computer and Peripheral Equipment Mfg $61,230 $29.44 50 Satellite Telecommunications Annual mean wage Hourly mean wage Employment Industry
  • Education and training pay Unemployment rate in 2006 Median weekly earnings in 2006 2.1 2.6 3.3 4.2 4.7 7.6 1.1 1.6 Master’s degree Bachelor’s degree Associate degree Some college, no degree High school graduate Less than a high school diploma Professional degree Doctoral degree Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Thank You!
    • Richard J. Holden
    • Regional Commissioner, SF
    • Bureau of Labor Statistics
    • [email_address]
    • 415-625-2245
  • Top ten highest earning, high growth occupations 2006 Earnings Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent employment growth 14 16 14 22 21 28 24 45 17 16
  • Health-related (bachelor’s degree or higher) high growth, high earnings occupations projected to have the most new jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment change (In thousands)