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Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%
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Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing 16%

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  • Immigration Today: Emerging Patterns of Continuity and Change by Jeffrey S. Passel Pew Hispanic Center Pew Research Center Washington, DC Regional Seminars for Journalists The Century Foundation Drake Hotel Chicago, Illinois April 7-8, 2005
  • Transcript

    • 1. Jeffrey S. Passel Pew Hispanic Center
      • Latin American Migration to the United States:
      • Trends and Impacts
      “ Expert Group Meeting on International Migration and” Development in Latin America and the Caribbean” CONAPO & UNFPA Mexico City, DF — November 30 –December 2 , 2005
    • 2.
      • Demographic Background -- Emergence of Latin sources -- How many? When did it start?
      • What Are They Like? -- Socioeconomic characteristics -- Legal status & Labor force
      • What Are Their Impacts? -- U.S. population & economy -- Origin & destination impactss
      Immigration Today
    • 3. Demographic Trends
      • Growing Numbers & Percents -- Mass migrations of ’70s
      • What Drives the Flow? -- Recent peak or downturn?
      • Emergence of New Centers -- Spread of unauthorized flows
      • -- Mexicans and others
      • Maturation of Some Flows? -- “Californization” spreading?
    • 4.
      • U.S. Population (2004)
      • Births (annual)
      • Deaths
      • Legal Immigration
      • Undoc. Immigration
      • Emigration
      • Growth Rate
      • (Very Rapid)
      • 293.7 million
      • 4.1 million
      • - 2.5 million
      • 700,000
      • 750,000
      • -200,000
      • 1.0 %
      U.S. Population -- Basics
    • 5. 21 st Century: Latin Flows Emerge in’60s * “Additional” immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens. Europe/Canada (Legal) Additional* All Other (Legal) 0.1 2.8 0.6 2.3 2.6 1.7 0.5 4.1 6.0 9.0 3.7 5.2 7 3.8 1.0 2.5 15+? 10 14-16+ (est.)
    • 6. Rise, Peak, Decline, & ?? Annual Immigration (in 000s) Legal Permanent Residents (LPRs) Unauthorized Migrants Legal Temporary Migrants Note: Unauthorized exceed LPRs after 1997.  Start  Peak  End 
    • 7. Immigrant Numbers Keep Growing -- Percent Approaches Historic Highs 14.8 Percent 35.2 Million (2005 CPS) 4.7 Percent 42-43 Million 13.5 Percent 12.1 Percent (2005)
    • 8. Immigrant Numbers Keep Growing -- Percent Approaches Historic Highs 20 Million (2005) 35.2 Million (2005 CPS) 900,000 (1960) 42-43 Million
    • 9. Undocumented Clearly at New High -- Trend Uncertain Millions of Illegal Aliens Living in the U.S. 4-80 6-89 1-82 6-86 10-96 10-92 4-00 3-04
    • 10. Legal Status of Immigrants Legal Permanent Resident (LPR) Aliens (10.4 million) 29% Temporary Legal Residents (1.2 million) 3% Refugee Arrivals-- (Post-’80) (2.5 million) 7% Unauthorized Migrants (10.3 million) 29% 35.7 Million Foreign-Born in 2004 (Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS) Naturalized Citizens (former LPRs) (11.3 million) 32%
    • 11. Most Undocumented Arrived Since 1990 10.3 Million in March 2004 1995-1999 3.6 million -- 35% (750,000 per year) 1990-94 2.2 million -- 21% (450,000 per year) 1980s 1.3 million -- 14% (130,000 per year) 2000-04 3.1 million – 30% (700,000 per year)
    • 12. Latin Americans & Asians Dominate Foreign-Born Other Latin America -- 23% 8.2 million Africa & Other -- 4% 1.5 million Europe & Canada -- 15% 5.5 million Asia -- 25% 9.0 million Mexico -- 32% 11.2 million 35.3 Million Foreign-Born in 2004 (Adjusted March 2004 CPS)
    • 13. Undocumented Are Largely Latin American 10.3 Million in March 2004 Other Latin America -- 24% 2.5 million Africa & Other -- 4% 0.4 million Europe & Canada -- 6% 0.6 million Asia -- 9% 1.0 million Mexico -- 57% 5.9 million
    • 14. Rapid Growth of Mexicans Continues Millions of Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born 31% 10,650,000 (2004 CPS)
    • 15. Central America similar to Mexico Caribbean Flows Largely Legal Foreign-Born Population, 2004 and Percent Unauthorized
    • 16. South American Flows Smaller Relative to Others Foreign-Born Population, 2004 and Percent Unauthorized
    • 17. Immigrants Are Concentrated 35.3 Million Foreign-Born (Adjusted March 2004 CPS) Texas – 10% (3.5 million) New York – 11% (3.9 million) Florida – 9% (3.2 million) Arizona – 3% (970,000) New Jersey – 5% (1.6 million) All Others – 31% (11.0 million) California – 28% (9.8 million) Illinois – 4% (1.4 million)
    • 18. New Immigration Growth Centers Immigration Categories Major Destinations (67% of Immigrants) (6) All Other States (23) New Growth States (1990-2000 > 91%) (22) Top 10 Growth States (135-274%) (10)
    • 19. Unauthorized Concentrated, but Spreading California – 24% 2.4 million 10 Million for 2002-2004 Florida – 9% 850,000 Texas – 14% 1.4 million New York – 7% 650,000 Arizona* – 5% 450,000-500,000 Illinois – 4% 400,000 New Jersey – 4% 350,000 North Carolina* – 3% 300,000 All Others – 32% 3.1 million
    • 20. Size of Undocumented Population, 2003-04 Size Categories Major Destinations (300,000-2,300,000) (8) New Large States (200,000-225,000) (6) Large States (100,000-150,000) (7) Moderate States (50,000-85,000) (9) Smaller States (20,000-35,000) (12) Smallest States (<10,000) (9)
    • 21. Major Redistribution Away From Big 6 Settlement States Percent of Total Undocumented Immigrant Population 39% -- 3.9 Million 12% -- 400,000
    • 22. New Growth --> High % Undocumented Note: Revision based on adjusted March 2004 CPS . 2004 Composition Categories Highest % Undocumented (40-60%) (19) Lower % Undocumented (20-29%) (13) High % Undocumented (30-35%) (8) Lowest % Undocumented (<20%) (11) Very Highest % (46-60%) (11)
    • 23. Annual Arrivals of Unauthorized Exceed Legals Since ~1995 Average Annual Arrivals of 2004 Population by Legal Status in 2004
    • 24. Mexicans Diversify, Too Percent of U.S. Mexicans 58% -- 2.5 million 38% -- 4.1 million 29% -- 3.1 million 12% -- 0.5 million
    • 25. Many Mexicans/Salvadorans in US Percent of County and Country’s Birth & Parentage Population (<40) in US, 2004 Share of “ Central American” Population in U.S. — 9% Note: Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.
    • 26. Larger Share of West Indians in US Percent of County and Country’s Birth & Parentage Population (<40) in US, 2004 Share of “ Caribbean” Population in U.S. — 15% Note: Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.
    • 27. Only Guyana Sends Large Share Percent of County and Country’s Birth & Parentage Population (<40) in US, 2004 Share of “ South American`” Population in U.S. — 1% Note: Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.
    • 28. Characteristics of Unauthorized
      • Who Are They? -- Mainly in Families -- Relatively Young -- Almost All Work
      • What Are They Like? -- Low Education -- Jobs reflect Skills -- Low Education -- Lack of Insurance
    • 29. Unauthorized Families Mixed Composition 13.9 million in Unauthorized Families (2004) Unauthorized Children 1.6 million 14% of all unauthorized Other Adults 400,000 U.S. Citizen Children 3.1 million 67% of kids Adult Women 3.9 million 44% of Adults Adult Men 4.9 million 56% of Adults
    • 30. “ Mixed Status” Families Common Among Unauthorized 6.3 Million Unauthorized Families (Estimated with March 2004 CPS) No Children 59% 3.7 million families With Non-Citizen Children 10% 630,000 families With US Citizen & Non-Citizen Children 7% -- 460,000 families (“Mixed”) With US Citizen Children 24% 1.5 million families “ Mixed” Solo Men 36% 2.3 million Solo Women 12% -- 740,000 Couples 9% -- 540,000 Other 3% -- 160,000
    • 31. Children of Unauthorized Mostly in “Mixed Status” Families 4.7 Million Children of Unauthorized (Estimated with March 2004 CPS) US Citizen Children with Unauthorized Siblings 13% -- 620,000 children “ Mixed” Unauthorized Children Only 20% 920,000 children Not “Mixed” Unauthorized Children with US Citizen Siblings 12% 580,000 children “ Mixed” US Citizen Children (Only) 55% 2.6 million children “ Mixed”
    • 32. Natives Education “Hourglass” & “Diamond” Less than High School Graduate College Degree or Beyond Share of Each Group’s 25-64 Population, 2004 Note: Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
    • 33. Natives Men more likely to work; Women less Males Females Labor Force Participation, Ages 18-64, 2004 Note: Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
    • 34. Unauthorized in Lower Wage & Education Occupations Service Occupations 33% – (15%) 6.3 Million Unauthorized Workers, 2004 Transportation & Material Moving 8% – (6%) Management, Business, & Professional 10% – (35%) Production, Installation, & Repair 16% – (10%) Construction & Extractive 17% – (6%) Farming, etc. 3% – (1%) Sales & Admin. Support 13% – (27%) Note: Share of native workers falling in the “major” occupation group is shown in parentheses. Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
    • 35. Overall Proportion Of Workers Who Are Unauthorized — 4.3% Most Concentrated Occupations Percent Unauthorized within Occupation Group, 2004 Farming Cleaning Construction Food Prep. Production Transport Note: Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
    • 36. Unauthorized Over-Represented in a Few Industries Construction 17% – (7%) All Other Industries 17% – (43%) Leisure & Hospitality 18% – (8%) Other Services 6% – (5%) Wholesale & Retail Trade 12% – (15%) Professional & Business Services 12% – (15%) Manufacturing 15% – (12%) 6.3 Million Unauthorized Workers, 2004 Note: Share of native workers falling in the “major” industry group is shown in parentheses. Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
    • 37. Most Concentrated Industries Percent Unauthorized within Industry, 2004 Overall Proportion Of Workers Who Are Unauthorized — 4.3% Private HH’s Hotels Food Mfg. Admin. Farming Food Service Textiles Construction Mfg. Note: Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
    • 38. Incomes Increase with Time in US Natives $47,800 Average Family Income, 2003 In U.S. <10 Years In U.S. 10+ Years
    • 39. Immigrant Families Larger Natives 1.98 Average Family Size, 2004 In U.S. <10 Years In U.S. 10+ Years
    • 40. Income per Person Suffers Average Family Income per Person, 2003 Natives $24,100 In U.S. <10 Years In U.S. 10+ Years
    • 41. Immigration Drives Growth Population in millions
    • 42. Immigration Critical for Hispanics Population in millions
    • 43. Projected Role of Immigrants in Work Force
      • Immigration Drives Growth
      • Education Upgrading of LF -- Better Education -- “Aging Out” of Low Education
      • Aging Population, 2010-2030
      • Immigrants Help Social Security -- Relatively Small Impact -- Offsets from More Children
    • 44. Labor Force Grows in Future Driven by Immigration (esp. after 2015) Labor Force (in millions)
    • 45. Low Education LF Shrinks -- College Degree LF Explodes Less than High School Graduate College Degree or Beyond Labor Force by Education (in millions) Percent Foreign-Born of Labor Force
    • 46.
      • Large, Increasing Flows Overall
      • Increases Due to Unauthorized
      • Responsive to Origin & Destination -- Job Availability in U.S. -- Conditions in Mexico & Elsewhere
      • New Destinations Emerge
      • Decrease from Peak in Response to Economic Decline
      Migration Flows to U.S.
    • 47.
      • Large Numbers (10+ million)
      • Scattered Around Country
      • Mixed , Young Families
      • Significant “Investments”
      • Potential Economic Mobility
      • Continued High Demand (?)
      • Opening Up to New Flows (?)
      Impact of New Programs
    • 48. For more information, contact:
      • Jeffrey S. Passel, Ph.D.
      • Pew Hispanic Center
      • Pew Research Center
      • 1615 L St., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036
      (202) 419-3625 [email_address] www.pewhispanic.org

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