Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Bilateral Trade And Economic Performance
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Introducing the official SlideShare app

Stunning, full-screen experience for iPhone and Android

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

Bilateral Trade And Economic Performance

1,034
views

Published on

Published in: Business, Economy & Finance

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,034
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
12
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide
  • Transcript

    • 1. Canada-U.S.: Bilateral Trade and Economic Performance in the 1990s Compiled By: Trade and Economic Analysis Division (EET) Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT) August 1999
    • 2. Summary Slide
      • Pages
      • 2-6 Index
      • Economic Indicators in Canada and the U.S.A. in the 1990s
      • 8. GDP and employment growth between 1989 and 1998
      • 9. Standard of living between Canada and the U.S.A.
      • 10. Provincial share in Canada’s GDP
      • 11. Provincial merchandise exports to the U.S.A.
      • Share of the U.S. market increased in provincial merchandise exports
      • Canada’s terms of trade
      • 14. Sectoral growth in Canada and the U.S.A.
      • 15. Product shares of Canadian goods exports to the U.S.A., 1989 and 1998
      • 16. Labour market performance: Canada and the U.S.A.
      • 17. Average hourly earnings of production workers, Canada and the U.S.A.
      • 18. Distribution of income, Canada and the U.S.A., 1985 and 1995
      • 19. Taxes and transfers and distribution of incomes in Canada
      • 20. UNDP Human Development Index rankings, Canada and the U.S.A.
      • A Statistical Synopsis of the debate: Why has Canada lagged the U.S. performance?
      • 22. Budget deficit/surplus as a share of GDP, Canada and the U.S.A., 1989 - 2001
      • 23. Annual percentage change in CPI, Canada and the U.S.A., 1989 - 1998
      • 24. Interest rates, Canada and the U.S.A., 1989 - 1998
      • 25. Total tax revenue as percentage of GDP, Canada and the U.S.A., 1990 - 1996
    • 3. Summary Slide (cont.)
      • 26. Sources of revenues and share of GDP, Canada and the U.S.A., 1996
      • 27. Personal income tax and social security contributions (net of refundable tax credit) as a share of family income, Canada and the U.S.A., 1998
      • 28. Federal Government expenditures as a percentage of GDP, Canada and the U.S., 1989 - 2001
      • 29. Debt to GDP ratio, Canada and the U.S.A., 1989 - 1997
      • 30. Net debt interest payments as a percentage of GDP, Canada and the U.S.A., 1989 - 1997
      • 31. Technology innovations and adoption, Canada and the U.S.A.
      • 32. Research and Development spending, Canada and the U.S.A.
      • 33. Share of gross private investment in GDP, Canada and the U.S.A., 1989 - 1998
      • 34. Labour productivity growth, Canada and the U.S.A., 1989 - 1997
      • 35. Business sector multifactor productivity, Canada and the U.S.A., 1961 - 1997
      • 36. Annual growth rate of multifactor productivity in manufacturing between1990 and 1995, Canada and the U.S.A.
      • 37. Expenditures on educational institutions for all levels of education, Canada and the U.S.A., 1993 and 1995
      • 37. Expenditure per student for all levels of education, Canada and the U.S.A., 1993 and 1995
      • 39. Employment rates, Canada and the U.S.A.
      • 40. Type of job growth, Canada and the U.S.A.
      • 41. Unemployment rate by educational attaintment, Canada and the U.S.A., 1998
      • 42. Unemployment rates by age/sex groups, Canada and the U.S.A., 1998
      • 43. Incidence and duration of unemployment, Canada and the U.S.A.
      • 44. Brain-drain to the U.S.A.
      • 45. Canadian emigration to the U.S.A., 1990 - 1996
    • 4. Summary Slide (cont.)
      • 46. Emigration to the U.S.A. and the stock of workers in the Canadian labour force
      • 47. Share of recent immigrants into Canada account to population and employment growth in the high-tech sector
        • The importance of Canada and the U.S.A. in each other’s economy
      • 49. Canada’s trade with the U.S.A., 1989 - 1998
      • 50. Share of Canadian trade with the U.S.A. in our GDP, 1980 - 1998
      • 51. U.S. trade flows with Canada as a percentage of U.S. GDP
      • 52. Index of exports of goods and services trade
      • 53. Canada-U.S. trade as a percentage of total Canadian trade, 1980 - 1998
      • 54. U.S.A. state exports to Canada
      • 55. Growth of Canadian exports to the U.S.A., by Industry , 1989-98
      • 56. Canada-US exchange rate and Canadian share of North American marlket, 1989 - 1998
      • 57. Canadian manufacturers’ share in the combined Canada/U.S.A. market, 1989 - 1998
      • 58. U.S.A. manufacturers’ market share in the combined Canada/U.S.A. market
      • 59. Canadian manufacturers’ market share in Canada
      • 60. U.S.A. manufacturers’ share of the U.S. market
      • 61. Canadian manufacturers’ market share in U.S. industries, 1987-88 to 1993-94
      • 62. U.S.A. manufacturers’ market share in Canadian industries, 1987-88 to 1993-94
      • 63. Canadian manufacturing industries: Relationship between market share in the U.S.A. and the share of manufacturing employment, 1987-88 to 1993-94
    • 5. Summary Slide (cont.)
      • 64. Changes in the U.S. tariffs and Canadian manufacturers’ share in the U.S. market
      • 65. Canada’s agri-food exports, 1988 and 1998
      • 66. Canada’s agri-food imports, 1988 and 1998
      • 67. The U.S. share of Canadian agri-food trade, 1988 and 1998
      • 68. Sales by Canadian-owned affiliates in the U.S.A., 1990-1998
      • 69. Processed food sales by U.S. affiliates in Canada, 1990-1998
      • 70. Distribution of sales by U.S. foreign affiliates
      • 71. Canada’s two-way services trade with the U.S.A., 1989 - 1998
      • 72. Canada’s travel account deficit with the U.S.A. has narrowed
      • 73. Travel to Canada from the U.S.A. mostly by land
      • 74. Canadian direct investment stock in the U.S.A. and U.S. investment stock in Canada, 1989 - 1998
      • 75. U.S. share in total FDI in Canada and Canada’s share in total U.S.
      • 76. The share of Canada and U.S.A. in total world FDI, 1990 and 1997
      • 77. The U.S. and Canadian direct investment , share by industry, 1989 and 1998
        • Human Security and Social Indicators for Canada and the U.S.A. in the1990s
      • 79. Health expenditure as a percentage of GDP, Canada and the U.S.A., 1989 and 1996
      • 80. Murder rate, Canada and the U.S.A., 1989 and 1996
      • 81. Robbery rate, Canada and the U.S.A., 1989 and 1996
      • 82. U.S., NATO-Europe and Canadian defence expenditures as a % of GDP
      • 83. Defence expenditures per capita, Canada and the U.S.A., 1989 - 1998
    • 6. Summary slide (cont’d)
      • 84. The Canadian defence budget, 1989 - 1999
      • 85. Defence expenditures in the U.S.A., 1989 - 1999
      • 86. Canada’s 1997 Top Cultural Commodity Export Markets
      • 87. Canada’s 1997 Top Cultural Commodity Import Markets
      • 88. Contribution of cultural sector in Canada’s economy
      • 89. Canada’s cultural exports by region
      • 90. Share of Canadian cultural commodity exports to the U.S.A. by sector, 1997
    • 7. Economic Indicators in Canada and the U.S.A. in the 1990s
    • 8. GDP and employment growth between 1989 and 1998 U.S.A. U.S.A. Canada Canada Sources: Statistics Canada and U.S. Department of Commerce
    • 9. The gap in the standard of living between Canada and the U.S.A. Sources: Statistics Canada and OECD Canada U.S.A.
    • 10. Between 1988 and 1997, the Western provinces increased their shares in Canada’s GDP, while Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada lost relative importance in total GDP Source: Statistics Canada
    • 11. Provincial merchandise exports to the U.S.A. increased Source: Statistics Canada
    • 12. The share of the U.S. market increased in each province’s merchandise exports Source: Statistics Canada
    • 13. Canada’s terms of trade declined in the late 1990s, largely due to resource-based commodity prices. However, the decline of the Canadian dollar was also due to economic conditions in Canada Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada Note: Commodity Price Index 1982-90=100, U.S. dollar terms and Terms of Trade Index, 1992=100
    • 14. The growth in Canada and the U.S. has been dominated by such information/knowledge-intensive sectors as financial, services, and wholesale trading, resulting in the declining importance of manufacturing, construction and agriculture Sources: Statistics Canada and U.S. Department of Commerce
    • 15. The growth in knowledge-intensive sectors in the U.S.A. has been correlated with increased importance of machinery & equipment exports to the U.S.A. We continue to be major suppliers of autos and resources to the U.S.A. Source: Statistics Canada
    • 16. Labour market performance: in tandem with the U.S.A., high-skill jobs grew more rapidly than other occupations in Canada between 1989 and 1997 High-skill: managerial, professional and technical Blue collar: construction, processing, transportation and materials handling Source: Statistics Canada
    • 17. Between 1988 and 1998, North American workers become better off, but the average hourly earnings of production workers increased by 3.16% in the U.S.A. while they rose only by 2.57% in Canada Sources: Statistics Canada and Bureau of Labor Statistics
    • 18. In face of substantial restructuring in Canada, the distribution of income in Canada, unlike the U.S., has remained stable throughout the 1980s and 1990s Canada U.S.A. % of National Income % of National Income 1985 1995 1985 1995 Families in: Q1 7.0 5.5 4.8 4.5 Q2 12.8 13.0 11.3 10.7 Q3 18.0 17.8 17.4 16.5 Q4 23.9 23.7 24.6 23.8 Q5 38.2 38.2 41.8 44.4 Q9 15.3 15.2 16.5 16.2 Q10 23.0 22.9 25.3 28.2 Source: Statistics Canada Inequality and Polarization Indicators for Equivalized Family After-Tax Income
    • 19. Taxes and transfers continue to reduce inequality of market earnings and results in a more even distribution of incomes in Canada Source: Statistics Canada The pushing up of the before-tax income line represents a reduction in inequality
    • 20. Economic growth in the 1990s has allowed the U.S.A. to catch-up to top-ranked Canada in the UNDP Human Development Index rankings Source: United Nations Canada U.S.A U.S.A. Canada
    • 21. A Statistical Synopsis of the debate: Why has Canada lagged the U.S. performance?
    • 22. Canada experienced slower growth in the early 1990s, in part induced by deficit reduction... Source: OECD (National Account Basis)
    • 23. … and inflation reduction in the early-90’s; the Canadian inflation rate has since dropped below the U.S. rate Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Statistics Canada Annual percentage change in CPI, U.S.A. and Canada U.S.A. Canada
    • 24. Deficit financing and inflation led to higher Canadian short and long-term interest rates until mid-1990s, before declining below the U.S. rates in recent years Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce and Statistics Canada U.S.A. U.S.A. Canada Canada
    • 25. Moreover, total taxes in Canada are higher than in the U.S.A.,... Source: OECD Total tax revenue as percentage of GDP at market prices
    • 26. … and the total tax burden in Canada is higher than it is in the U.S.A.,... Source: OECD
    • 27. … and personal income tax and social security contributions (net of refundable tax credit) as a share of family income differ in Canada and the U.S.A.
      • Calculations include:
      • Average of Florida, New York and California for the U.S. (1998); and Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia for Canada.
      • Average income of a family of one-earner couple with two children, plus a family of two earner couple with two children.
      Data Source: Department of Finance
    • 28. Federal Government expenditures as a percentage of GDP have fallen in both Canada and the U.S.A. Total outlays: current outlays plus net capital outlays. Data Source: OECD Economic Outlook no.65, June 1999, Preliminary Edition Source: Department of Finance
    • 29. But Canada’s debt to GDP ratio remains above that of the U.S.A.,... Source: OECD U.S.A. Canada
    • 30. … so the Canadian government’s net debt interest payments as a percentage of GDP are higher than in the U.S.A. Source: OECD
    • 31. As regards technology, Canada is slower than the U.S.A. in innovations and adoption... Source: National Science Foundation U.S. continues to be a leading producer…. ...and leading consumer of high-tech products, with about 30% share of the global market
    • 32. … as Canada’s R&D spending has consistently remained below the U.S.A. levels... Source: Statistics Canada U.S.A. Canada
    • 33. … .and the importance of gross private investment in Canadian GDP appears to have been limited Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Statistics Canada U.S.A. Canada
    • 34. A comparison of labour productivity between Canada and the U.S.A. presents a mixed picture Source: Statistics Canada
    • 35. Technological progress in the business sector has been comparable Index, 1961=100 Source: Statistics Canada
    • 36. Annual growth rate of multifactor productivity in manufacturing, 1990 to 1995 Source: Statistics Canada
    • 37. Worker skills: Although expenditures on educational institutions for all levels of education combined is higher in Canada than in the U.S.A.,... Source: Statistics Canada
    • 38. … expenditure per student for all levels of education combined rose in the U.S.A. and fell in Canada Source: Statistics Canada
    • 39. Demand for labour: Employment rates in the U.S.A. have been much higher than in Canada in the 1990s, particularly among older and younger age groups
    • 40. There are striking differences in the type of job growth over the 1990s in Canada and the U.S.A. Source: Statistics Canada
    • 41. Adult unemployment rates are lower in the U.S.A. than in Canada for all levels of educational attainment
    • 42. The unemployment rate gap persists for all age/sex groups, but is most pronounced for male youths
    • 43. Both higher incidence and longer duration contributed to the higher unemployment rate in Canada in the 1990s
    • 44. Concerning a brain-drain to the U.S.A….
      • Less than 2.0% of university graduates settle permanently in the U.S.A.
      • Four times as many university graduates come to Canada from world-wide sources, a disproportionate share with degrees such as Master’s or Ph.Ds
      • The data for movement of temporary workers to the U.S.A. are not robust
        • The count is based on border crossings and fluctuates with administrative changes
      • The outflow of permanent and temporary workers is currently estimated at 15,000 - 20,000 per year. Of these, 8,000 - 10,000 are likely to be university graduates
      • This outflow of workers to the U.S.A. is offset by a net annual inflow of 24,500 university trained immigrants
      Source: Statistics Canada
    • 45. … there appears to be no trend of increase in Canadian emigration to the U.S.A. in the 1990s Source: Statistics Canada
    • 46. Emigration to the U.S.A. is very small relative to the stock of workers in the Canadian labour force Source: Statistics Canada
    • 47. Recent immigrants into Canada account for 5% of the population, but more than 30% of employment growth in the high-tech sector Increase in the number of computer engineers, systems analysts and computer programmers employed, 1991 to 1996 Total increase in the employed labor force 38,290 Increase among 1990-96 immigrants 11,870 % increase accounted for by 1990-96 immigrants 31% Source: Statistics Canada
    • 48. The importance of Canada and the U.S.A. in each other’s economy
    • 49. Canada has become more integrated with the United States as our trade rose by more than two-fold over ten years…. Source: Statistics Canada Exports Imports
    • 50. … and as the share of Canadian trade with the U.S.A. in our GDP rose Source: Statistics Canada
    • 51. The same trend holds for the U.S.A., but proportionally less Source: Statistics Canada
    • 52. Goods and services trade have been growing in parallel since 1991 Source: Statistics Canada
    • 53. The U.S.A. remains Canada’s largest trading partner Source: Statistics Canada
    • 54. With all states gaining since 1991 Percent growth from 1991 to 1998 Selected U.S.A. state exports to Canada Source: Statistics Canada
    • 55. Growth in Canadian exports to the U.S.A., by Industry (1989-98) Source: Industry Canada
    • 56. No evidence to support that the lower exchange rates help Canadian manufacturers to gain share in the Canada/US market $C/$US Canadian share of North American market Canadian and US dollar exchange rate Source: Statistics Canada
    • 57. Canadian manufacturers have maintained share in the combined Canada/U.S.A. market % Canadian share in combined Canada/U.S.A. market Source: Statistics Canada
    • 58. U.S.A. manufacturers have been losing share in the combined Canada/U.S.A. market % USA share in combined Canada/U.S.A. market Source: Statistics Canada
    • 59. Although Canadian manufacturers have been losing market share in Canada Canadian share - domestic market % Source: Statistics Canada
    • 60. And so have U.S.A. manufacturers % US share of the U.S.A. market Source: Statistics Canada
    • 61. Canada gained market share in US in industries where US recorded the biggest losses, 1987-88 to 1993-94 Rubber products Total Furniture and fixtures Transportation equip. Chemicals Paper and allied Electrical Clothing Leather Primary textiles Machinery US manufacturers (changes in share - percentage points) Canadian manufacturers (changes in share - percentage points) Source: Statistics Canada
    • 62. U.S.A. gained market share in Canadian industries where Canada recorded losses, 1987-88 to 1993-94 Furniture and fixtures Rubber products Chemicals Machinery Primary metals Leather Total Transportation equip. Electrical Textiles US manufacturers (changes in share - percentage points) Canadian manufacturers (changes in share - percentage points) Source: Statistics Canada
    • 63. Canadian manufacturing industries: Relationship between market share in the U.S.A. and the share of manufacturing employment, 1987-88 to 1993-94 Market shares in U.S.A. (changes in percentage points) Manufacturing employment share (changes in percentage points) Transportation Equip. Rubber Wood Clothing Tobacco Refined Petroleum Paper Source: Statistics Canada
    • 64. Changes in the U.S. tariffs and Canadian manufacturers’ share in the U.S. market Leather Machinery Furniture and fixtures Transportation equip. Textile products Food Wood Rubber Plastic products Chemicals Paper & allied Other US imports tariffs (changes - percentage points) Canadian share - U.S.A. market (relative change - per cent) Source: Statistics Canada
    • 65. Canada’s Agri-Food Exports Bulk Intermediate Consumer-Oriented In the agri-food industry, the U.S.A. remains the leading destination for Canada’s intermediate and consumer-oriented agri-food exports Source: Agriculture and Agri-food Canada
    • 66. Canada’s Agri-Food Imports Bulk Intermediate Consumer-Oriented The U.S.A. also remains the principal source for Canadian imports of intermediate and consumer-oriented agri-food products Source: Agriculture and Agri-food Canada
    • 67. The U.S. share of Canadian agri-food trade has increased significantly over the 1988-1998 period Total Agri-Food Exports Total Agri-Food Imports 31% 54% 57% 61% 69% 43% 46% 39% Total Agri-Food Exports and Imports Source: Agriculture and Agri-food Canada
    • 68. Sales by Canadian-owned affiliates in the U.S.A. have been variable, but they have grown over the 1990-1998 period US $ Billions Source: Agriculture and Agri-food Canada Processed Food Sales by Canadian Affiliates in the U.S.A. vs. US Imports from Canada
    • 69. Sales by U.S. affiliates in Canada are over twice as large as U.S. processed food exports to Canada, and both are growing. A highly integrated and expanded regional market is evidenced by the increase in both U.S. and Canadian affiliates and the growth in trade between the two countries Processed Food Sales by US Affiliates in Canada vs. US Exports to Canada US $ Billions Source: Agriculture and Agri-food Canada
    • 70. Distribution of Sales by US Foreign Affiliates, 1996 In Canada, U.S. affiliates export a higher percentage of their production to the U.S.A. than do U.S. affiliates in other countries. In addition, many U.S. affiliates in Canada have product mandates which result in the imports of semi-processed ingredients from the U.S.A. Canada US$11.6 B Source: Agriculture and Agri-food Canada Mexico US$5.5 B World-wide US$121.2 B Local Sales Exports to Other Countries Exports to the US
    • 71. With regard to services trade, Canada’s two-way services trade with the U.S.A. grew by $30 billion between 1989 and 1998, mostly on account of commercial services Source: Statistics Canada
    • 72. Also due to a lower Canadian dollar, Canada’s travel account deficit with the U.S.A. has narrowed Source: Statistics Canada
    • 73. Travel to Canada from the U.S.A. mostly by land Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada
    • 74. Two-way flow of investment between Canada and the U.S.A. was also an important component of the on-going integration. Canadian direct investment stock in the U.S.A. and U.S. investment stock in Canada has doubled Source: Statistics Canada
    • 75. While the U.S. share in total FDI in Canada has remained in the 65-68% range, Canada’s share in total U.S. FDI has declined to 11.6% in 1997 from 16.7% in 1989 Source: Statistics Canada
    • 76. The share of Canada and U.S.A. in total world FDI declined between 1990 and 1997 Source: World Investment Report
    • 77. The share of U.S. and Canadian direct investment has increased in information and knowledge-intensive sectors: our investors are contributing to the restructuring in North America Canadian Direct Investment to the U.S., Share by Industry Foreign Direct Investment in Canada from the U.S., Share by Industry Source: Statistics Canada
    • 78. Human Security and Social Indicators for Canada and the U.S.A. in the 1990s
    • 79. Health expenditure as a percentage of GDP in Canada has declined slightly since 1992 Source: Canadian Institute for Health Information and Health U.S.A. U.S.A. Canada
    • 80. The murder rate in the U.S.A. has been declining since 1992 but is still much above that of Canada Sources: Statistics Canada and the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation U.S.A. Canada
    • 81. With a broadly similar trend for the robbery rate in the U.S.A. and Canada U.S.A. Canada Sources: Statistics Canada and the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation
    • 82. U.S., NATO-Europe and Canadian defence expenditures as a % of GDP Source Data: SIPRI Yearbook; NATO Publication M-DPC-(98)147 U.S.A. NATO-Europe Canada
    • 83. Defence expenditures per capita Source Data: SIPRI Yearbook; NATO Publication M-DPC-(98)14 U.S.A. Canada
    • 84. The Canadian defence budget increased marginally in 1999 Source Data: Military Balance; SIPRI Yearbook; NATO Publication M-DPC-(98)147 Canadian Defence Expenditures
    • 85. Defence expenditures in the U.S.A. started rising again this year Source Data: Military Balance; SIPRI Yearbook; NATO Publication M-DPC-(98)147 United States Defence Expenditures
    • 86. Canada’s 1997 Top Cultural Commodity Export Markets Source: Statistics Canada 1997-98 Cultural Trade and Investment Project
    • 87. Canada’s 1997 Top Cultural Commodity Import Markets Source: Statistics Canada 1997-98 Cultural Trade and Investment Project
    • 88. The cultural sector is an important contributor to the economy
      • The cultural sector grew 13.9% between 1989-90 and 1995-96, outstripping growth in some other key sectors such as transportation and agriculture.
      • From 1990 to 1994, the cultural labour force increased by 5.6% while total employment declined 0.5%.
      • Where as only 60% of total employment in Canada is knowledge-based, 82% of Canada’s cultural sector may be defined as such; creators, managers, professionals and technicians.
      • * Statistics Canada 1997-98 Cultural Trade and Investment Project
      • ‡ Statistics Canada 1994 expenditure based GDP; 1994 labour force
      • Source: Canadian Heritage
      Culture 610,000* Total employment 13,292,000 ‡ Culture $20 billion* Total gross domestic product $767.5 billion‡ 1994-95 GDP 1994- 95 Employment
    • 89. Canada’s cultural exports by region USA 84.72% Japan 2.8% Other OECD 2.6% EU 5.39% Other coutries 4.5% USA 89.2% Asia 2.9% Americas 0.7% Europe 6.2% Africa 1.0% Source: Statistics Canada; Statistics Canada 1997-98 Cultural Trade and Investment Project
      • Overall export growth has been strong but largely reliant on the U.S. market
      • Similarly, 1997 Statistics Canada data for cultural exports indicate a heavy reliance (89%) on the U.S. market
      • Preliminary consultations with Canadian cultural exporters indicate that the U.S.A. will always be the primary destination market for their goods and services
    • 90. Share of Canadian cultural commodity exports to the U.S.A. by sector (1997) Source: Statistics Canada, Cultural Trade Report for 1997/1998, May 1998