Analysis Scenarios For Venice

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  • 1. V. Paccagnan and M. Turvani University IUAV of Venice September 2008 Socio- Economic Scenarios for Venice and its Lagoon: Issues of Sustainability
  • 2. Presentation objectives
    • Provide a macro-economic picture of the Veneto region and Venice province, to understand the socio-economic trends in the area
    • Describe scenarios elaborated for the city of Venice, taking into account recent studies and planning documents
    • Understand how these scenarios interact with recent socio-economic trends
  • 3. Presentation outline
    • The economic analysis in the WFD
    • Venice and the Veneto Region: an overview
    • Socio- economics scenarios
    • From vision to action: the planning process and outcomes
    • Current socio-economic trends vs scenario
    • Sustainability? Interplay between global and local issues
  • 4. The economic analysis in the WFD
    • The WFD introduces the economic analysis in water resource management and planning, with three purposes:
      • economic analysis of water uses
      • economic assessment of potential measures for reaching good water status
      • assessment of the recovery of the costs of water services
    • In particular, the economic analysis of water uses should address the following questions:
      • What is the economic significance of water in the Venice lagoon?
      • What are the key economic drivers influencing pressures and water uses?
      • How will these economic drivers evolve over time, and how will they influence pressures? How will water demand and supply evolve over time, and which problems it is likely to cause?
    • We now start to address these issues…
  • 5. Venice and the Veneto Region: an overview
  • 6. Veneto Region
    • One of the most lively areas from the economic point of you (“locomotiva d’Italia”)
      • Growth rate above national average since late 1980s, due to lira devaluation (export led economy) and very low unemployment rates
      • Mainly traditional manufacturing industries
        • Food, textile, wood, building and mechanical
        • Delocalisation in the last decade in Eastern Europe to face competition from Eastern countries and Asia (price vs. quality)
      • Services are less developed with respect to other regions
      • Lack of infrastructure
    • Since 2000, the regional economy has experienced a slow down, due to the changing international and domestic demand
      • Only building and tourism sectors show positive performances
  • 7. Some economic figures
  • 8. Some economic figures / 2
  • 9. Venice province economy
    • 44 municipalities, but the city of Venice accounts for 33.5% of the total population and 44.6% of the total number of employees
    • In the Venice province some sectors with high technological development are present:
      • Chemical industry
      • Aereonautical industry
      • Naval dockyard
    • Employment rates in the different sectors:
      • Agriculture: >10% in some municipalities at the district boundaries
      • Industry: > 50% in the Brenta river area
      • Tourism: 10-20% in the coastal area
      • Public sector: > 15% in larger town (23% in Venice)
    • Employment trends from 1980s
      • Decrease of jobs in industry (chemical and glass works)
      • -30% textile
      • Positive rates in mechanical, building and glass sector
  • 10. Some economic figures
  • 11. The districts in the Venice area
    • Artistic glass in Murano
      • Firms: 175 production; ~ 80 commercial; ~ 60 prod.+comm.
      • Export: 50% of the production
    • Naval dockyard
      • 450 firms and 1,300 employees
    • Tourism district of the Venice-Treviso-Vicenza-Rovigo provinces
    • Cultural district
      • 300 institutions and 200 firms
    • Shoe and leather district (Brenta river)
      • ~ 280 firms and ~ 6,000 employees
  • 12. The economy of the city of Venice
    • Administrative city (region, province, municipality)
    • Tourism city
      • 20ml visitors in the last year, with an increasing trend
        • 3.5ml stay overnight in the hystorical part (8ml presences)
        • High proportion of one-day trippers
      • Economic figures
        • 180€ expense per presence for tourists who stay overnight – 75€ for day trippers
        • 1bn € year sales
    • Industrial city
      • Main activities: energy production; food; chemical; oil refinery; mechanical; metallurgical; building materials.
      • the Porto Marghera area is experiencing a deindustrialisation process, as witnessed by the constant decrease of the number of employees
  • 13. Tourism trend in downtown
  • 14. Some economic figures
  • 15. Demographic changes
  • 16. Demographic changes
  • 17. Recent socio-economic scenario
  • 18. The Rullani and Micelli (1997) study
    • Assumptions:
      • Riproduction of the material base necessary to pursue the economic development;
      • Rethinking of urban identity
    • 4 scenarios
      • “ intertial growth”
      • “ radical environmentalism”
      • “ metropolitan integration”
      • “ transition to postfordism”
  • 19. Inertial growth
    • Tourism specialisation
      • Decrease of some services’ provision (esp. PA)
      • Increase of commercial activities linked with tourism
    • Isolation of the hystorical city and integration of the mainland with the provinces of Treviso and Padova
      • Concentration of Administrative functions in the mainland
    • Closure of the Porto Marghera industry and setting up of small industries in the area
  • 20. Radical environmentalism
    • Environmental protection becomes a priority in the agenda setting
    • Development of environmental service industry (e.g. waste treatment and disposal)
    • Closing down of the refinery
    • Limitations on waterborne transport in the lagoon
    • Increase of number of eco-tourists in the Venice lagoon
  • 21. Metropolitan integration & post-fordist city
    • Integration of the city of Venice with the mainland
    • Increase the accessibility of the city
      • Metro
      • Port
    • Specialisation of the different area of the city
      • Marghera -> productive site
      • Mestre -> bridge town, with the setting up of commercial and directional centres
      • Venice -> “immaterial” production
        • Focus on knowledge economy
        • Enter in global network
  • 22. The METIS project (Indovina, 2003)
    • Objectives:
      • to built possible (feasible) scenarios for the Venice lagoon
      • to increase the available information about the prospective development of the Venice community
    • Methodology: analysis of recent trends and scoping interviews.
    • What kind of scenarios are we thinking of?
      • Likely scenarios: future development of the present conditions, imagined by considering the actual situations and trends (no innovation)
        • Scenario 0: “tourism monoculture”
      • Possible scenarios: future development of present conditions, provided that some element of innovation is introduced.
        • Scenario 1: City of sustainable development; administrative, university and culture centre
        • Scenario 2: Environmental protection as a resource
        • Scenario 3: Metropolitan city
  • 23. Scenario 0: “tourism monoculture”
    • Improvement of the accomodation capacity of the hystorical town
      • Change of use for buildings
      • Increase of real estate prices
      • Limited availability for local residents
    • Improvement of the accomodation capacity in the mainland (Mestre and Marghera)
      • Actually 60% of tourist presences stay in the mainland
    • Increase of the public areas occupied by the restaurant
      • 30,000 seats current available
      • Price increases
    • Modification of the commercial structure of the city
      • Shops are thought for the tourists and not for the residents
    • Relocation of other economic activities
      • Limited availability of space for commercial activities and increasing rent
      • Preferences for the Piazzale Roma area
    • Transfer of administrative activities in the mainland
    • Maintenance of University
    • Escape of the local residents
  • 24. Scenario 1: City of sustainable development; administrative, university and culture centre
    • Tourism would continue to be an important part of the economic activities in the hystorical town but will be more compatible with alternative economic activities.
    • Actions
      • Programming turistic arrivals and available services
      • Improve the quality of local handicraft to help it becoming a substitute for low quality souvenirs
      • Improve the quality in the research and teaching activities in Venice Universities and boost international relationships
      • Improve cultural offer
      • Stop residential escape by improving service provision and accessibility
  • 25. Scenario 2: Environmental protection as a resource
    • Environmental problems should be considered as an opportunity to increase the knowledge and human capital of the area
    • Actions
      • Increase city openess towards technological development and new works
      • Increasing the coordination of research activities concerning the Venice lagoon
      • Strenghten of existing research activities
      • Clean up of the Marghera site
  • 26. Scenario 3: Metropolitan city
    • Institutional innovation: consider Venice problems in a wide area perspective, by emphasising the relationships of the hystorical city with the sorrounding environment
    • Actions:
      • Institution of the metropolitan city
      • Clean up of Marghera site
      • Reusing of former industrial site location
      • Accessibility and transport
  • 27. From vision to action: the planning process and outcomes
  • 28. Planning processes around the Venice Lagoon
    • Venice municipality: a bunch of planning instruments
      • Strategic Plan (2004-2014)
      • Plan for the management of the territory (under definition)
    • Supra-municipal level: planning instruments in search of coordination
      • Plans for Venice, Treviso and Padova districts (under definition)
      • Regional Territorial Plan (under definition)
  • 29. Scenario definition
    • The Strategic Plan (2004) identifies several strategic lines, to be developed in parallel in further action
      • International city
      • City of Culture
      • City of waters
      • City of tourism
      • City of research and innovation
      • City of logistics
      • City of production and services
    • No specific action is however foreseen in the plan
  • 30. SP: City of waters
    • Water as the focal point for the development of the whole territory
    • Policy actions:
      • Safeguard water systems
      • Boost productive activities which use water as an input;
      • Use the intervention of the Venice lagoon safeguard as a mean to incentivate the research and development on these issues;
      • Improve the mobility on water through the research in new technologies
      • Rebuilt the cultural identity linked to water
  • 31. SP: City of tourism
    • Need to improve the quality of tourism offer and demand
    • Policy actions:
      • Promote tourism itinerary on the mainland and in Venice
      • Promote new forms of tourism (sport tourism, ecotourism) to develop the potentiality of the mainland
      • Improve knowledge of tourism patterns so as to manage tourist arrivals
      • Improve logistics
  • 32. SP: City of production and services
    • Porto Marghera is interested by a phase of industrial restructuring, where the decline in hystorical industrial production has to be matched with environmental restoration of contaminated sites
    • Policy actions
      • Revitalise the industrial production
        • Implement the actions foreseen in the Framework Agreement for Chemical Production (1999-2001- 2005- 2007)
        • Favour the setting of new industrial activities
      • Complete the process of environmental restoration through contaminated sites clean up (Porto Marghera, S. Giuliano Park, previously a industrial and city landfill)
      • Favour other kind economic activities different from the industrial ones, so as to favour the handicraft.
  • 33. Current socio-economic trends vs Scenario
  • 34. The controversy on fishing activities
    • Fishing activities in the Venice lagoon can be divided into two categories, the traditional fishing activities (extensive aquaculture and cultivation of soft crab) and the commercial ones (with the introduction of the clam).
    • Fishing licences:
      • 90 traditional fishermen
      • 1,200 professional fishermen
    • In recent years a conflict emerged between these two categories, since the mechanical fishing of tapes is increasing and this influences negatively the catch of soft crab, because of the impact on ecosystem functioning.
    • Economic value of fishing activities is increasing
  • 35. Fish catching in the Venice lagoon and its commercial value Bordin (2007) in The state of Veneto Region, 2006, Unioncamere
  • 36. Industrial activities
    • Restructuring of industrial production led by local and global factors
    • A parallel decrease in the pollution loads entailed by such activities due to slow down and regulation. However, the burden of past contamination has driven the setting up of policy interventions in the last ten years.
    • Remediation becomes an ‘industry’ of its own
    • The economic structure in the area is experiencing a transition phase where traditional industrial activities retreat in favour of service activities.
    • On the whole, the increase in the economic activities and employees has been registered only in the energy, oil and refinery sector, in the building materials and in “other sectors”.
    • The chemical sector is showing the highest uncertainty for the future.
  • 37. Economic activities in the Marghera area (2006)
  • 38. What future for economic activities?
    • aluminium, development of new alloys suitable to be employed in the aerospace industry;
    • shipyards, the acquisitions of the areas devoted to the cruise ship management;
    • port activities and logistics, with
      • the enlargement of docks in the Marghera area and the excavation of the canals to the current -10.50m depth to -12m.
      • the port area will be enlarged.
    • hydrogen application to transport activities. In 2003, the Hydrogen Park has been set up to study and promote the development of the application of fuel cells. Its objectives are the development of an energy generation system (by using the hydrogen) and the application to this technology to a ferry (vaporetto).
    • energy production, through the storage of biodiesel in the area close to the Enel power plant.
    • research and technological innovation, through the creation of the VEGA scientific-technological park in 1996.
    • environmental monitoring and restoration, by cleaning up the contaminated area in Marghera and by managing the contaminated sludge obtained by the Vallone Moranzani dredging.
  • 39. Policy documents in Marghera: the setting up of ‘remediation as an ‘industry’
    • Framework of voluntary agreement for the Chemical industry (“Accordo per la Chimica”) –1999
      • Participants: several Ministers, local authorities (Veneto Region, Province and Municipality of Venice, Venice Port Authority), the main enterprises and trade unions operating in this area
      • Objective: to continue industrial production whilst reducing environmental pollution in the Porto Marghera area and adopting the best available technologies in the local polluting industries
    • Voluntary agreement Porto Marghera “Intesa per Porto Marghera” – 2005
      • Objectives: to complete the cleanup of Porto Marghera site whilst assuring at the same time the coherence with the planning instruments of the area
      • It boost the environmental restoration of the area whilst recognising the importance of cleaning current industrial activities (e.g. chemical sector) and promoting the settlement of new green industry
    • “ Protocollo di intesa su Porto Marghera” – 2006
      • Concerns the Chemical Industry
  • 40. Master Plan – 2004
    • It foresees a set of policy measures necessary to attain the objectives stated in the Voluntary Agreement:
      • clean up of the contaminated sites in the Porto Marghera area;
      • increase of the knowledge base regarding the extent of contamination;
      • research activities regarding the application of available technologies on the treatment of contaminated materials
      • improvement of landscape.
    • For what concerns the clean up of contaminated sites, the Plan identifies priority interventions, to be completed by 2014 and other measures for which no sufficient knowledge is available, and that will be carried out afterwards
  • 41. Port activities: a summary
    • The area is interested by Port related activities. In 2006, the Port of Venice has transported almost 17 million tonnes of goods: of these, more than 11 millions are related to commercial goods, being the remaining industrial intermediate goods.
    • The transportation of these goods has produced more than 7,000 transits in the Venice lagoon.
    • Port activities are highly constrained by the features of the lagoon, such as: the canal depth that limits the transit of big ships; the need to limit the waves ( moto ondoso ) in the lagoon; the maintenance and cleaning of the lagoon canals, and the consequent problem of the contaminated sediments; the lack of adequate logistic infrastructures.
  • 42. Port of Venice Figures
    • In the last 10 years:
    • +27% of the amount of traffic in the Port of Venice
    • of this, +65% of commercial traffic
    • Recent trends:
    • concentration of the commercial traffic in the Porto Marghera area;
    • use of Maritime station for the passenger traffic;
    • use of former industrial area for commercial docks
  • 43. Tourism
    • General patterns
      • Conflict between the actual tourism development and the desired level of environmental quality
      • Problem of the quality of tourism demand (one day travellers and excursionist accounts for 60% of the tourist presences)
    • Benefits for a wide areas but costs concentrated in the hystoric city
      • Congestion
      • Increase in prices in the hystorical city and closure of activities not linked to the tourism activities
      • Impact on the environment (waste production, water pollution, increase of waterborne traffic)
    • Problem of managing tourist demand and shift towards a high quality provision of touristic attractions
  • 44. Sustainability? : interplay between global and local issues
    • Global vs Local scenarios: what room for manouvre?
    • Price vs quality: what socio-economic consequences across all sectors?
    • Trend in regulatory action: tightening or loosing?
    • Trend in institutional developments: which level for which decision? (No Metropolitan)
    • Trends in demographic and labor markets expected behavioral responses?
    • Trends in consumer preferences for private and public goods?
  • 45. Sustainability? Interplay between global and local issues
    • Sectoral sustainability issues and intersections: coherence or conflict?
    • Tourism and the Lagoon carrying capacity ?
    • Fishing ?
    • Accessibility and the Port?
    • The Chemical production?
    • Culture industry?
    • Science & technology?
    • The University in Venice and in Veneto?
    • The environmental sustainability : a glass ceiling for the growth of the economy?