Tourism and Climate Change: Issues, Trends and Solutions

Tourism and Climate Change: Issues, Trends and Solutions Presentation to PNWER Summit, 2008, Vancouver, July 22, 2008 Anna Pollock, Executive Consultant, Environmental Services Inter VISTAS Consulting Inc.

Paper available from: www.theicarusfoundation.com Background Resource

The Science Tourism is both a victim and a contributor to climate change Tourism: Is it part of the problem or the solution? Dr. Pachauri, Head of IPCC & Co-winner of Nobel Peace Prize

What’s at Stake? Tourism in PWNER

Tourism in Pacific Northwest USA Source: TIA: www.poweroftravel.org SPENDING (Billion) TAX (billion) EMPLOYMENT PAYROLL (billion) ALASKA $ 1.6 $.271 23,500 $0.681 WASHINGTON $10.1 $1.7 104,700 $2.5 OREGON $ 6.7 $0.9 77,700 $1.5 IDAHO $ 2.7 $0.428 22,400 $0.392 MONTANA $ 2.4 $0.261 26,000 $0.375 TOTAL $23.5 $3.597 254,300 $5.461

Tourism in Western Canada SPENDING (Billion) TAX (billion) EMPLOYMENT British Columbia $ 9.8 266,000 Alberta $ 5.3 180,000 Yukon $ 0.164 1900 Saskatchewan $ 1.4 60,000 TOTAL $16.54 507,000

Tourism as Clusters, as Network Source: Oregon Strategic Plan

Employment Revenues Taxes Talent Community rejuvenation Environmental Stewardship 1960s 1980s 1990s 2010+ Changing Role & Value of Tourism

What do members have in common? Tourism in PWNER

Adventure, Eco, Nature, Wildlife

Wildlife viewing worth $1 billion in Washington state

Wilderness tourism generated $1.5 billion in direct and indirect spend in British Columbia, supported 2200 businesses

High yield, affluent, educated clientele

Market Appeal

Ecological Diversity

Population Growth & Change

Tourism Growth In Washington state, travel spending has increased annually between 2002 and 2007 .

Optimism

Fragility

These plus 22 other mammals and 540 other species are at significant risk of extinction in BC

Climate Change Eco-Literacy

Global Carbon Emissions

Global Carbon Concentrations

Global Temperatures Rising

Just how warm do we want to be?

"If warming is not kept below two degrees centigrade, substantial global impacts will occur, such as species extinctions, and millions of people will be at risk from drought, hunger, flooding.“

International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

+ 2°C (+ 0.6 °)

A Matter of Urgency

If there is no action before 2012, it’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.

Source of the Problem

Wild Cards & Positive Feedback Loops

Attitude of humility needed

Albedo effect

Methane

Deforestation

Ocean currents

It’s Getting Worse Not Better

It’s Getting Worse Not Better Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), published October 25, 2007

Earth’s waste absorption capacity deteriorating Natural sinks absorb 5 billions tons of CO 2 globally every year, or 55% of all anthropogenic carbon emissions. Value= €0.5 trillion 18% loss of efficiency

The West is Particularly Vulnerable When compared to the 20 th Century average, the West has experienced an increase in average temperature during the last 5 years that is 70% greater than the world as a whole. NRDC, March 2008

Scope of Impacts on Business

Physical Impacts

Precipitation

Landscapes

Business Viability

Loss of business

Risk Management

Cost control

Increased insurance

Adaptation expenses

Convergence of Threats

Growing Public Concern

Traveling with a Guilty Conscious?

"Making selfish choices such as flying on holiday or buying a large car are a symptom of sin.”

– "Sin is not just a restricted list of moral mistakes. It is living a life turned in on itself where people ignore the consequences of their actions."

- Richard Chartre

Bishop of London

Changing Consumer Values

2007 the tipping point in consumer awareness

One trip from England to New Zealand burns 60% more carbon than a trip to Scotland – will this affect travel patterns?

43 million US travellers are concerned about green issues

24% said air travel should be avoided to help preserve the environment

26% would pay a premium of up to 10% for an eco-friendly flight

Still not clear how much behavior is changing as only 3% however, have purchased carbon ‘off-sets ’

Changing Business Travel Patterns

Big business is acting quickly

All public companies required to disclose carbon footprint as part of its CSR report

Companies with huge travel budgets like PWC, Siemens etc are targeting a 20% reduction in air travel for each staff member.

Green meetings and Incentive travel next to be seriously affected

Reducing internally first, then delving into supply chain

What’s the Cure? Reduce 25% of 1990 levels by 2020 Reduce 80% of 1990 levels by 2050

Government Responses

Reduction Targets – all levels of government

BC’s new carbon tax

The EU plans to add aviation to its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) starting in 2012 for intra-EU flights and all flights departing from or arriving in the EU

Cap & trade legislation inevitable regionally if not nationally

Starting in 2009, the UK intends to replace air passenger duty with a “per flight” tax based on carbon emissions

Source: UNWTO, 2007 Tourism’s Contribution Sub-Sectors CO 2 (Mt) Air transport 522 40% Car transport 418 32% Other transport 39 3% Accommodation 274 21% Activities 52 4% TOTAL 1,307 100% Total World (IPCC 2007) 26,400 Tourism Contribution 5 %

Growth vs Emissions Reductions Volume Growth 4 x increase 1990-2020 Emissions Reductions 25% reduction, 1990-2020

So How is Tourism Perceived as Responding?

Poorly!

So How is Tourism Responding?

PREPAREDNESS Low High RISK High Low Source: KPMG Transport, Tourism, Aviation in Danger Zone

National or Regional Carbon Footprints

Whistler’s Carbon Footprint

Aviation emissions account for ~78% of all emissions

Internal GHG reductions dwarfed by air travel emissions

Source: Energy Information Administration Visitor Travel to/from Whistler Whistler’s CO2 Emissions 2030 ~ 14% ~ 86% Internal

Aviation Emissions Growing Faster than Total Emissions US CO2 Emissions Annualized Growth Rate 1980 - 2004 2.0% 1.6% 0.9% Sources: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Statistics 2007 and OECD

Some Good News – Efficiency Gains Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Statistics 2007 . CAGR: -1.9% US Domestic Aviation CO2 Emissions per Passenger Mile 1980 – 2004

From Winglets to? Source: Airliners.net http://www.airliners.net/open.file/1060096/L/

From Oil to Algae

However, Rapid Growth in Air Travel Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Statistics 2007 . CAGR: 4.0% US Domestic Air Travel 1980 - 2004

Total Emissions Continue to Climb … Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Statistics 2007 . CAGR: 2.0% US Domestic Aviation CO2 Emissions 1980 - 2004

The Future – A Larger Share of a Larger Pie

Aviation emissions will increase 65% by 2030

Total emissions will increase by 25% by 2030

Source: Energy Information Administration US CO2 Emissions 2005 vs. 2030 2005 2030 ~ 4% ~ 5.5% Aviation Aviation

Aviation Impact varies…London Source: London Climate Action Plan 2007

Climate Change – A Blessing?

“ Climate change is the synthesis of all other environmental issues; energy inefficiency, pollution, species extinction, water use, desertification, urban sprawl…many of the most pressing environmental issues are related intimately to the problem of climate change” Canadian Environmental Grantmaker’s Network

Reaching a Target – takes an ARROW!