Anna Pollock Investing In Future Values


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Presentation given to TIDES Conference in Samoa, February 18th, 2010

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  • So I crave your indulgence This is not your normal tourism presentation with masses of statistics and disjointed trends. My goal is to get you to see tourism differently – to change your mindset; to get those creative juices going. I am followed on this podium by many experts whose detailed operational knowledge in marekting and management surpasses mine. My task to create context. Here’s my roadmap for today.
  • Before we look forward to how values might be changing – and they most certainly are…. Let’s remind ourselves of where we’ve come from I’ll keep this quick – but want to suggest that tourism is coming home to its roots. In fact this whole speech is more about about homecoming than leaving….
  • Tourism – the holiday business –actually has its roots in spirituality. Holiday comes from holy days – a time for Rest, reflection, renewal. People in the middle ages had far more time for holidays than we do today…. Vacation is from a latin word meaning to empty. Pilgrimage was one of the earliest forms of tourism – here’s Chaucer off the Canterbury where a thriving souvenir market existed and millions still travel for religious purposes today.
  • This very expensive Canaletto was one of the first destination brochures – commissioned in part to persuade wealthy young men like Lord Byron with time on their hands and a penchant for dressing up to take Grand Tour and trample over the antiquities of Italy, Greece and other parts of the Mediterranean.
  • While Byron was busy touring the ruins of ancient civilisations that had crashed and crumbled, back home the seeds of an industrial revolution were being sown and it wasn’t long before his home country was littered with Dark Satanic mills and a whole new class of working people emerged – initially too poor to move but soon the desire and the means for escape was born and we saw the emergence of the seaside resort where the most daring thing women did was show some ankle.
  • You could argue the history of tourism is about he amount of flesh willing to be exposed Along with r & r came this notion of escape and exclusivity. This would be ideal if it were secluded and empty. But this is still reality for many and might be reality for more…….
  • Cos what those women were likely dreaming about was romance – another core value and a value that many countries in the South Pacific have successfully appealed to.
  • And if romance didn’t last, if you get bored with each other, you can always shop…… or ski in the desert. In the same way that mountaineers climb everest because it’s there, Arabs ski in the desert because they can. My point here is that the acquisition of stuff or collection of memorabilia has always been associated with travel and shopping is an important activity for some people. Shopping malls like Mall of America and now the many that litter Dubai are key attractioins for some – but certainly not for everybody
  • The more things become the same and there are no surprises, the more we yearn for the unexpected. We are nostaligic for the days of genuine explorers who never knew what was around the corner only in our case there is always a hidden guide/operator orchestrating those “unique” moments of discovery….
  • From explorers to adventurers. – when Simon Fraser negotiated the rapids of interior Canada; that was advebture. When Byron took his household off to Europe it was The Grand Toour. Now when overweight Europeans sit on underweight bests of burden it’s call “soft adventure” But for those with a personal death wish you can now pay to jump of tall buildings, bridges and fjords ….in your quest for adventrure.
  • According to a survey sponsored by MSNBC and Conde Nast Traveller, 55 percent of the participants in the survey said they were interested in volunteering on their vacation.
  • Or, does what we measure indicate what we really value?
  • Extrinsic value has nothing to do with cost of production or scarcity or how important it is to life… Then of course there’s the mantra – we only value what we pay for…
  • Four actors in any tourism community Each has their own values Successful tourism at the destination occurs when these are roughly in alignment BUT it’s rare that the community thinks about them Suppliers vary enormously in values – for some tourism is the means to a quick buck; for others it’s a lifestyle; for others it’s a passion or cause. We’ve identified that guests are seeking a range of benefits and therefore value experiences differently. Investors are crucial and it’s too easy to suggest that they only value and high ROI. A growing number are looking at a broader range of values But the group whose values matter most is the host community – the visitor has far more contact with residents than employees or investors How much tourism is really shaped by community values – how often do residents get involved in the decisions as to the type, scale and pace of tourism development.
  • The men and women that sailed east against the prevailing westerlies know how to read the invisible ocean and air currents. They knew how to see the invisible. They didn’t follow the herd – or the easy path –
  • Why did the titanic sink? The captain, owners passengers perceived it as unsinkable. 2`design flaw….that had escaped attention and some powerful assumptions that the vessel was unsinkable. The design flaws were always there but had not been seen.
  • Yes but! There is a future for a healthy sustainable tourism sector in the South Pacific but not if you ignore the deeper, qualitative changes occurring in source markets. There are as many threats as opportunities Your planning and targeting will need to be more precise. You’ll need to make some very conscious careful choices You need to throw out old models and think afresh. Every time I see this graph I think of the Titanic – its full of unexamined assumptions that may or may not be accurate Growth is good Growth can occur year on year without checks and balances Growth is achievable The systems on which this growth depends won’t fail There’s no uncertainty in the system.
  • Will this recession end ? Will we, can we return to business as usual? I am one of many hundreds of thousands of people who think we ate at not just a puctuation point but a an evolutonary trigger point. Now I am going to share a quotation from an eminent thinker…
  • Heavy stuff… the author went on to say……..
  • Powerful, visionary words – written around 1999. Sounds like the words of a futurist, or consultant, student of change… You’d be surprised to know that they are the thoughts of a banker – yes really! But no ordinary banker A banker who was also a farmer A banker who went on to form one of the the most powerful financial institutions on the planet He was able to do this because he constantly examined his assumptions and was able to intuit a new collaborative way of working in business that matched the way the universe works..
  • There are no stratight lines in nature
  • Nothing in nature grows indefinitely hamster
  • hamster
  • There are no stratight lines in nature
  • I was at university the year that mankind took that great step and stood on the moon As geography students we we’d already studied the early pictures from space. Our world was no longer quite as mysterious ano vernight it had edges. It’s taken over 50 years for the implications of that observation to press home. But pressing home it is ….. And to give you a sense of how our deepest beliefs are changing I’d like you to watch this clip.
  • I was at university the year that mankind took that great step and stood on the moon As geography students we we’d already studied the early pictures from space. Our world was no longer quite as mysterious ano vernight it had edges. It’s taken over 50 years for the implications of that observation to press home. But pressing home it is ….. And to give you a sense of how our deepest beliefs are changing I’d like you to watch this clip.
  • The capacity to flourish How can you reduce the ecological footprint
  • Anna Pollock Investing In Future Values

    1. 1. Investing in the Values of the Future Anna Pollock CEO Desticorp
    2. 2. Roadmap <ul><li>The Relevance & Power of Values </li></ul><ul><li>Why are they changing? </li></ul><ul><li>How are they changing? </li></ul><ul><li>Impact on Tourism’s Future in the South Pacific </li></ul><ul><li>Implications and opportunities </li></ul>
    3. 3. Tourism A History of Changing Values
    4. 4. Celebration & Pilgrimage
    5. 5. The Grand Tour
    6. 6. Escape
    7. 7. Rest & Relaxation- escape & exclusivity
    8. 8. Romance
    9. 9. Retail Therapy
    10. 10. Exploration & Learning Source:
    11. 11. Adventure
    12. 12. The Real Adventure Abraham Maslow
    13. 13. Meaning
    14. 14. Meaning
    15. 15. Doing Good
    16. 16. Welcome back the “diaspora ” Coming Home
    17. 17. Why are Values so Important?
    18. 18. Spend our time & money
    19. 19. What attracts our attention
    20. 20. who we trust <ul><li>Family </li></ul><ul><li>Government </li></ul><ul><li>Business </li></ul><ul><li>Friends </li></ul><ul><li>Peers </li></ul><ul><li>People Like Us </li></ul>
    21. 21. what we count <ul><li>Income – how much we make </li></ul><ul><li>Friends – real and virtual </li></ul><ul><li>Net worth – sum of assets and liabilities </li></ul><ul><li>GDP – sum total of economic activity </li></ul><ul><li>Arrivals – people crossing border </li></ul><ul><li>Yield – how much they spend </li></ul><ul><li>Growth – more </li></ul><ul><li>Happiness – how good we feel inside </li></ul><ul><li>Footprint – how we impact the earth </li></ul><ul><li>HPI – Happy Planet Index </li></ul>
    22. 22. … and how we assign value <ul><li>INTRINSIC VALUE </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What does it cost? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How necessary is it? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>EXTRINSIC VALUE </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How much can I charge? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How much will you pay? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>SCARCITY VALUE </li></ul>
    23. 23. What do we Value?
    24. 24. Liquid Value <ul><li>If the Unit of measure =16 fluid ounces, which has the most extrinsic value? </li></ul><ul><li>Bottled water? </li></ul><ul><li>Starbucks Coffee? </li></ul><ul><li>Gas (petrol) for your car? </li></ul><ul><li>Crude oil? </li></ul><ul><li>Tap water? </li></ul><ul><li>Unit of atmosphere? </li></ul>
    25. 25. <ul><li>If the Unit of measure =16 fluid ounces, which one has the most extrinsic value? </li></ul><ul><li>$1.50 Bottled water </li></ul><ul><li>$ 4.00 Starbucks Coffee </li></ul><ul><li>$0.52 Gas or petrol at an Exxon gas station </li></ul><ul><li>$0.24 Price of crude oil at $80 a barrel </li></ul><ul><li>? Clean Tap water </li></ul><ul><li>? Unit of atmosphere (clean, pollution free air ) </li></ul>Liquid Value
    26. 26. Whose Values Matter in Tourism? Host Community Investor Guest Supplier
    27. 27. How Do We Anticipate Future Values? This is where the peoples of the South Pacific have a built in advantage
    28. 28. The Art of Wayfinding Surface eddies or deeper ocean currents………….
    29. 29. Trends Drivers Paradigms Organization, Structure Outcomes Culture Values Perception our unexamined assumptions To anticipate future values, go deeper
    30. 30. The power of perception
    31. 31. Defeated by what they couldn’t see
    32. 32. Will Tourism Put Wind in Our Sails?
    33. 33. Even though the “NICE” times are over *NICE = Non-inflationary period of constant expansion
    34. 34. So, are we at a punctuation point in history? Is this being asked of us?
    35. 35. “ We are at that point of time when a four-hundred-year-old age is rattling in its deathbed and another is struggling to be born – with a shifting of culture, science, society and institutions enormously greater and swifter than the world has ever experienced…..”
    36. 36. …… .Ahead lies the possibility of regeneration of individuality, liberty, community and ethics such as the world has ever known , and a harmony with nature, with one another, and with the divine intelligence such as the world has always dreamed. .
    37. 37. our unexamined assumptions Trends Organization, Structure Outcomes Drivers Culture Values Paradigms Perception
    38. 38. How are people in your markets changing their view of the world?
    39. 39. What Assumptions are Changing? <ul><li>We’re separate objects </li></ul><ul><li>It’s a material world – value lies in things </li></ul><ul><li>Only the fittest survive, compete or die </li></ul><ul><li>Growth is essential for economic stability </li></ul><ul><li>The earth is a lumberyard with resources to be used to make and sell things </li></ul><ul><li>Technology will solve our problems </li></ul><ul><li>Tourism is an industry </li></ul><ul><li>GDP measures prosperity </li></ul>
    40. 40. We’re Changing Operating Systems
    41. 41. The Industrial Model Assumes <ul><li>The universe is a machine of parts and objects </li></ul><ul><li>The planet is a lumberyard </li></ul><ul><li>The industrial model can be applied to tourism </li></ul><ul><li>Places and people are resources to be exploited </li></ul>
    42. 42. <ul><li>The industrial model: </li></ul><ul><li>Productizes </li></ul><ul><li>Standardizes </li></ul><ul><li>Homogenizes </li></ul><ul><li>Commoditizes </li></ul>
    43. 43. The industrial model ignores THE Key Value Driver = SCARCITY 3 <ul><li>Only one place </li></ul><ul><li>Only one period of time </li></ul><ul><li>Only one experience </li></ul>
    44. 44. The industrial model is inaccurate
    45. 45. There are no straight lines in nature <ul><li>Nothing in Nature Grows Indefinitely </li></ul>
    46. 46. Death in Venice
    47. 47. Changing Perception of Space We’ve only one home But is it toxic real estate?
    48. 48. We’ve only one home Are we living beyond our means?
    49. 49. We Need Three to Support Our Current Population & Current Lifestyles We haven’t had to pay for our life support services
    50. 50. Economy Depends on Ecology <ul><li>The Economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment </li></ul><ul><li>Not just about “greening” but changing our view of ourselves </li></ul>
    51. 51. CONNECTIVITY & COMMUNITY From separateness to interconnectivity and interdependence Future value is in the relationships between people Law of networks
    52. 52. Tourism is NOT an industry but a Community of Connecting Agents
    53. 53. Individuals Wield Enormous Power
    54. 54. Individuals Wield Enormous Power
    55. 55. The web is changing too From a channel to a platform for collaboration
    56. 56. ORGANIZATION <ul><li>Destinations are communities </li></ul><ul><li>Self-organizing, complex, adaptive </li></ul><ul><li>They are not assembly lines or factories </li></ul><ul><li>Leadership is now about capacity building and facilitation </li></ul><ul><li>Collaboration and Cooperation enable innovation and resilience </li></ul>
    57. 57. Industrial Organizations
    58. 58. What do they need to survive? <ul><li>Orders & Order </li></ul><ul><li>Commands & Control </li></ul><ul><li>Stability </li></ul><ul><li>Continuity </li></ul><ul><li>Rules </li></ul><ul><li>Fear </li></ul><ul><li>Withholding Information </li></ul><ul><li>Measurement </li></ul><ul><li>Incentives </li></ul><ul><li>Competition </li></ul>
    59. 59. Ecological Organizations?
    60. 60. <ul><li>Everyone is a leader </li></ul><ul><li>Everyone sensing, responding </li></ul><ul><li>and communicating </li></ul><ul><li>Transparency </li></ul><ul><li>Trust </li></ul><ul><li>Reputation </li></ul><ul><li>Agile </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptable </li></ul>How Do They Survive?
    61. 61. Re-thinking What We Measure <ul><li>Does GDP measure what we value? </li></ul><ul><li>Can we have prosperity without growth? </li></ul><ul><li>Happy Planet Index </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Footprint </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Life satisfaction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Health </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The ecological efficiency with which happy & healthy lives are supported </li></ul></ul>
    63. 64. Implications for the South Pacific
    64. 65. Questions for the South Pacific <ul><li>Have you made a conscious choice about the kind, scale and scope of tourism you want to develop? </li></ul><ul><li>Is this choice true to the values of the community? </li></ul><ul><li>Do you know how to generate the greatest net benefit from tourism and integrate it with and serve the entire economy? </li></ul><ul><li>Are you able to apply principles of Scarcity and Stewardship in your own unique way? </li></ul><ul><li>How will you define and measure success? </li></ul><ul><li>Will your choices withstand the intense scrutiny of all stakeholders? </li></ul><ul><li>How willing are you to work in new more collaborative ways and break down the barriers that have traditionally separated tourism from other economic sectors? </li></ul>
    65. 66. Q&A Session Anna Pollock CEO Desticorp