Fig. 5 Cumulative changes in the mass of (left axis) the EAIS, WAIS, and APIS (top) and GrIS and AIS and the combined change of the AIS and GrIS (bottomAlso shown is the equivalent global sea-level contribution (right axis). 360 Gt of ice corresponds to 1 mm of sea-level rise.
Renewable energy is rapidly becoming cheaper than conventional energy. Here we focus on electricity, which is moving faster than liquid fuels.Latest contract entered into by the City of Holland – starts at $45 per MWH (4.5 cents a kilowatt hour) and slowly rises to $60 per MWH by 2022. $45/MWH is far lower than what it costs Consumers and Detroit Edison to generate electricity with OLD conventional generation and purchased power - CMS $74.40/MWH and DTE $68.60/MWH. Expiration of the Production Tax Credit will add $7/MWH to the cost of wind power contracts – Holland would be $53/MWH.Some renewables, especially wind and biomass gasification, are now competitive with conventional electricity generation, and utility-scale solar is expected to be competitive in Michigan before the end of this decade. These resources are primarily rural and compatible with farming, so this is a significant business opportunity for farmers and rural communities.Generation by independent power producers reduces utility profits, so generally requires mandates or competition policy or will be choked off by utilities. Michigan currently mandates 10% renewables by 2015 of which half must be obtained from independent power producers. Proposal 3 would increase that mandate to 25% renewables by 2025. If it doesn’t pass, then this market opportunity will depend on either a legislative mandate or very aggressive competition policy.
Michigan Energy Forum - February 6, 2014 - A Pragmatic Approach to Climate Change
Michigan Energy Forum:
A Pragmatic Approach to Climate
January 6, 2014
Ann Arbor Spark
Michigan Energy Forum
University of Michigan
6 February 2014
Four central questions:
Is the climate changing?
What is causing it?
What will be the consequences?
What should we be doing about it?
The 2013 IPCC Assessment
“Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal, and since the 1950s,
many of the observed changes are
unprecedented over decades to
millennia. The atmosphere and ocean
have warmed, the amounts of snow and
ice have diminished, sea level has
risen, and the concentrations of
greenhouse gases have increased.”
Relative to 1951-1980 mean
Global surface temperature anomalies
The 2013 IPCC Assessment
This evidence for human influence has
grown since AR4. It is extremely likely
(>95% probability) that human influence
has been the dominant cause of the
observed warming since the mid-20th
Global Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Boden et al., CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (2010)
A Pragmatic Approach to Climate Change
Skip Pruss, Principal, 5 Lakes Energy
The EIA and IEA
forecast that world
will grow by over 50
2010 and 2040
◦ 500 “quads”
◦ 770 “quads”
Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
192 countries are parties (United
States, Canada, Andorra, South Sudan)
Developed countries generally have target of 80 percent
reductions by 2050
Developing countries do not have prescribed targets
Capitalization of the Green Climate Fund will begin in 2014.
NREL, Renewable Energy Futures Study (4 Vols) 2012 - Renewable energy
sources, accessed with commercially available technologies, could adequately supply 80%
of total U.S. electricity generation in 2050. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/52409-1.pdf
Deng, et al, Transition to a Fully Sustainable Global Energy System, 2012 - Sourcing 95%
of global energy needs by 2050 from sustainable energy systems is technically feasible.
RMI, Reinventing Fire 2012 - A $4.5-trillion investment would save $9.5 trillion, for a 2010net-present-valued saving of $5 trillion during 2010–2050.
United Nations IPCC, Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change
Mitigation 2011- Multiple options exist for lowering GHG emissions from the energy
systems while still satisfying the global demand for energy services. http://srren.ipccwg3.de/
International Energy Agency- Clean Energy Progress Report 2011 – A clean energy
revolution is achievable through a comprehensive policy approach.
WWF ECOFYS The Energy Report: 100% Renewable Energy by 2050 2011 – Global
transition to clean energy sources technically feasible and economically advantageous; cost
saving equilibrium by 2040; $6.5 trillion in annual savings by 2050.
Google – The Impact of Clean Energy Innovation 2011 – Reductions of GHG emissions by
55 – 63% with positive effects on the economy and job growth.
Jacobson and DeLucchi, WWS (Wind, Water, Solar) Plan (2 Vol), 2010 - Produce all new
energy with WWS by 2030 and replacing the pre-existing energy by 2050. Barriers to the
plan are primarily social and political, not technological or economic.
Replacement of fossil fuels for
electricity, transportation, heating & cooling, and industry
Cost (economic feasibility)
Reliability and resiliency of power supply
Availability of resources; commodity impacts
Not included: Innovation, future cost reductions, political and
Not included: Stranded costs
80 percent by2050 renewable electricity penetration requires
renewable energy capacity additions of 20–45GW per year
Can be achieved with existing technologies – innovation and
future cost reductions were not modeled
Costs for transmission, distribution and smart-grid
deployment are in line with recent expenditures
◦ Needed: $5.7 – $8.5 billion per year
◦ Actual (1995-2008) $2 – $9 billion per year
Supply chain is adequate to meet technology demand
Adequate supply and demand side resources to meet hourly
demand in every region under all modelled scenarios
Geographical dispersion of variable distributed energy
Use non-variable energy resources to smooth loads
Demand response management to shift ﬂexible loads
Utility scale energy storage
Deploy additional renewable generation resources
Produce fuel sources from excess electrical resources
Improved forecasting systems
International Energy Agency
forecast in 2000:
◦ Wind capacity by 2010: 34 GW
◦ 2010 actual capacity: 200 GW
World Bank China forecast in
9 GW wind
0.5 GW solar
2011 actual capacity:
EIA Annual Energy Outlook
Projected Wind Capacity:
◦ 2025 reference Case: 11.3 GW
◦ 2025 PTC Case:
◦ 2012 actual capacity: 60 GW
Projected Solar Capacity:
◦ 2012 actual capacity: 7.3 GW
By 2020, up to 700,000 MWs of unsubsidized solar energy will
be at retail price parity with grid-delivered electricity.
(McKinsey & Company)
Wind energy, already at wholesale cost parity in many parts
of the nation, will be at or below the cost of all other new
electric generation resources.
Over 700 U.S. companies are now deriving 100 percent of
their electricity from green power sources, including
Intel, Kohl’s and Staples. (2013 EPA Green Power Partnership)
A survey of 100 U.S. companies with revenues in excess of $1
billion found that 60% are implementing energy efficiency
measures and 51% intend to increase company-owned
renewable generation. (Ernst and Young 2012)
CE non-renewable $74.40
DTE non-renewable $68.60
City of Holland wind $45.72
Market opportunities and investment trends
Fossil fuel costs and market volatility
Standards and codes – ZNE
Insurance and finance
Distributed energy resources, demand-side management
technologies, and energy efficiency measures pose an
existential threat to today’s utility business models.
Customer adoption of DER and EE reduce utility sales and
spread fixed costs among declining base of ratepayers.
Investment community may react restricting access to capital
in the future.
Investor owned utilities (IOUs) face a “Kodak moment”
IOUs must identify new business models and service
Edison Electric Institute 2013
380,000 clean energy jobs
26% of electricity generation from renewables today
40% by 2020
Most solar deployment in the world
Successfully “reindustrialized” the German economy
Cost of wholesale electricity going down (17% in