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Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives
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Megatrends: Six forces shaping our present and future lives

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Understanding our complex world is simple. You just have to observe it at a distance and over time, and the big waves of change will be obvious. That's what I have done. Six forces of change stood …

Understanding our complex world is simple. You just have to observe it at a distance and over time, and the big waves of change will be obvious. That's what I have done. Six forces of change stood out. They are global societal megatrends shaping our past, present and future lives. The six global societal megatrands are: Population growth. New technology. Unlimited choice. Information explosion. Freedom to connect. Resource depletion.

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  • 1. Global societal megatrends SIX  www.steria.no  FORCES Shaping our present and future lives* *Population growth. New technology. Unlimited choice. Information explosion. Freedom to connect. Resource depletion. © Steria
  • 2.  The forces shaping our present and future  Global societal megatrends  Spanning hundreds of years  Will affect life in all areas  For many years to come  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 2 Six forces of change © Photo:
  • 3.  The six forces Population growth New technology Unlimited choice 1 2 3 Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion 4 5 6  www.steria.no 05/05/2010 05.05.2010 3 Six forces of change
  • 4.  Understanding our complex world is simple  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 4 Six forces of change © Photo:
  • 5.  You just have to observe it…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 5 Six forces of change
  • 6.  From a distance…  Earth at night NASA satellite Photo  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 6 Six forces of change © Photo: DMSP and NASA
  • 7.  Over time… 100 years of ups and downs 1000 on the American Stock Exchange Source: Dow Jones Industrial Average 1000 Trend line 100 10  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 7 Six forces of change
  • 8.  And the big waves of change will be obvious  The Agricultural Revolution (late 17th Century)  The Industrial Revolution (late 18th Century)  The Digital Revolution (late 19th Century)  Coming: The Evolution Revolution (20st Century)  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 8 Six forces of change © Photo:
  • 9.  Let’s go way, way back in time  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 9 Six forces of change
  • 10.  Once upon a time…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 10 Six forces of change
  • 11.  Life was really simple…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 11 Six forces of change
  • 12.  Humans hunted…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 12 Six forces of change
  • 13.  Gathered food…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 13 Six forces of change
  • 14.  Fought disasters and diseases  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 14 Six forces of change
  • 15.  Life continued like that for…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 15 Six forces of change
  • 16.  200.000 years  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 16 Six forces of change Photo by Tom Heldal
  • 17.  Then something happened…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 17 Six forces of change
  • 18.  It was a revolutionary point  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 18 Six forces of change
  • 19.  In the history of humankind Late 17th. century  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 19 Six forces of change
  • 20.  Humans began to cultivate food crops The Agricultural Revolution started  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 20 Six forces of change © Photo: Masterfile (Martin Ruegner
  • 21.  The most basic need could now be satisfied FOOD  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 21 Six forces of change © Photo: Masterfile (Martin Ruegner
  • 22.  Historians call it the Dawn of Civilization  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 22 Six forces of change © Photo: Masterfile (Martin Ruegner
  • 23.  Life exploded  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 23 Six forces of change
  • 24.  www.steria.no  Population g p growth © Steria © PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis / Alan Schein Photography
  • 25.  It has been the main force of change Population growth New technology Unlimited choice 1 2 3 Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion 4 5 6  www.steria.no 05/05/2010 05.05.2010 25 Six forces of change
  • 26.  Population growth 10 From 1 to 6 billion people Year 2040 9 9 billion in just 200 years LLIONS OF PEOPLE 8 Year 2009 7 6,8 billion 6 5 4 3 BIL Year 1804 2 1 billion people 1  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 26 Six forces of change
  • 27.  Explosive growth in people…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 27 Six forces of change
  • 28.  Triggered explosive growth in all areas Social Creative Technical  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 28 Six forces of change © PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis / Alan Schein Photography
  • 29.  More people meant more ideas…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 29 Six forces of change
  • 30.  More inventions  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 30 Six forces of change
  • 31.  It was the second revolutionary point in time  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 31 Six forces of change
  • 32.  The Industrial Revolution Year  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 32 Six forces of change © Photo: Masterfile / Roy Ooms
  • 33.  It fuelled rapid economic progress Go t Growth in World Domestic Product o d o est c oduct 30 Source: Angus Maddison ”Monitoring the World Economy (OECD, 1995) 25 20 lion dollars s 15 Trill 10 5 0  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 33 Six forces of change © Photo: Masterfile / Roy Ooms
  • 34.  “ Global economic activity (GDP) has increased by a factor of 40 since the start of the Industrial Revolution.” – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 2001  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 34 Six forces of change
  • 35.  Dramatic increase in production capacity  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 35 Six forces of change © Photo: Scanpix / NYT / Matthew Holst
  • 36.  It accelerated technological development  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 36 Six forces of change
  • 37.  That brings us to the 2nd. force of change Population growth New technology Unlimited choice 1 2 3 Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion 4 5 6  www.steria.no 05/05/2010 05.05.2010 37 Six forces of change
  • 38.  www.steria.no  New technology © Steria © Photo: AFP / Mario Tama
  • 39.  Agri-technology  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 39 Six forces of change © Photo: Scanpix / Camera Press / NCNA
  • 40.  Robotics-technology  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 40 Six forces of change
  • 41.  Energy- and nuclear technology  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 41 Six forces of change © Photo: Masterfile (Dale Sanders)
  • 42.  Bio-technology  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 42 Six forces of change © Photo: PhotoDisc
  • 43.  Nano-technology  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 43 Six forces of change
  • 44.  Information-technology  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 44 Six forces of change © Photo: Masterfile / Glen Wexler
  • 45.  One development has meant more than anything else…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 45 Six forces of change
  • 46.  The transistor and integrated circuit  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 46 Six forces of change © Photo:
  • 47.  Rate of development that defies the imagination  The first transistor invented in 1947 could be held in your hand  Hundreds of the latest* transistors fit on the surface of a red blood cell  The price of one of these is 1 millionth the price of a transistor in 1968  If car prices had fallen at the same rate, a new car today would cost about 1 cent Morgan Sparks, the man who turned the earliest transistor into a practical device *Penryn f *P from I t l Intel  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 47 Six forces of change
  • 48.  Technology makes us more productive  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 48 Six forces of change
  • 49.  We can invent and produce a lot more ”stuff”  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 49 Six forces of change
  • 50.  That brings us to the 3rd. force of change Population growth New technology Unlimited choice 1 2 3 Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion 4 5 6  www.steria.no 05/05/2010 05.05.2010 50 Six forces of change
  • 51.  www.steria.no  Unlimited choice © Steria
  • 52.  Unlimited choice  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 52 Six forces of change © Photo: Photo: #11 – Swakopmund Link: http://www.flickr.com/photos/opeyre/455591380/
  • 53.  Three examples:  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 53 Six forces of change
  • 54.  Unlimited choice of groceries 1920: Typical grocery store 1960: Typical supermarket  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 54 Six forces of change
  • 55.  Unlimited choice of groceries 2004: Typical supermarket (just the fruit and vegetable section) The number of products carried by an average US supermarket has more than tripled since 1980,from 15,000 to 50,000 Source: Food Marketing Institute 2004 S  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 55 Six forces of change
  • 56.  Unlimited choice of TV-channels and media Average number of TV-channels per home in the US TV channels 1960 2008 6 118 Source: Nielsen Media Research, 2008 / B i R h Business Week, The Vanishing Mass Market, 2004  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 56 Six forces of change © Photo: Gorilla / Miia Saastamoinen
  • 57.  Unlimited choice of cars 1908 2009  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 57 Six forces of change
  • 58.  Some more evidence…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 58 Six forces of change
  • 59.  Worldwide patent activities  A doubling of total world patent filings in 20 years ▬ 1985: ~ 884,000 ▬ 2006: ~ 1 76 million 1.76  Japan, the USA, Korea, Germany and China accounted for 76 % of the total patent filings  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 59 Six forces of change
  • 60.  Growth in worldwide patent activities 450,000 Patent filings in leading economies Japan Source: World Patent Report – A Statistical Review (2008) gs Numb of filing 300,000 300 000 USA ber China 150,000 Europe 0  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 60 Six forces of change
  • 61.  We are approaching the age of 100 million products and services to choose from  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 61 Six forces of change
  • 62.  Freedom or overload? The debate goes on...  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 62 Six forces of change © Photo: Photo: #11 – Pecado venial http://www.flickr.com/photos/paco_calvino/509970213/
  • 63.  Something else is growing fast…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 63 Six forces of change
  • 64.  www.steria.no  Information © Steria © Photo: Scanpix / Masterfile
  • 65.  The 4th. force of change Population growth New technology Unlimited choice 1 2 3 Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion 4 5 6  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 05/05/2010 65 Six forces of change
  • 66.  www.steria.no  Information explosion © Steria © Photo: Scanpix / Masterfile
  • 67.  www.steria.no  © Steria © Photo: Scanpix / Masterfile
  • 68.  That brings us to the third revolutionary point in time  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 68 Six forces of change
  • 69.  The Digital Revolution Size of circles indicate amount information produced worldwide Sources: (1) The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe, March 2008, An IDC White Paper - sponsored by EMC (2) How Much Information?, UC Berkeley School of Information Management and systems, 2003  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 69 Six forces of change
  • 70.  “More information will be created in the next three years than in the history of time.” – Berkley School of Information Management, 2002 The exploding digital universe  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 70 Six forces of change © Photo: Masterfile / Rick Fischer
  • 71.  Many feel overloaded  www.steria.no © Photo: Masterfile 05.05.2010 71 Six forces of change
  • 72.  Historians call it… the Information Age  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 72 Six forces of change © Photo:
  • 73.  A real change in human ecology “ All of a sudden almost sudden, every aspect of life around the world is being recorded and g stored in some information format. That's a real change in our human ecology.” ” – Peter Lyman, professor emeritus at UC Berkeley's School of Information  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 73 Six forces of change
  • 74.  The amount of information produced…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 74 Six forces of change
  • 75.  Is directly linked to how connected we are  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 75 Six forces of change © Photo: Masterfile / Bill Frymire
  • 76.  Now, let’s look at this  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 76 Six forces of change
  • 77.  The 5th. force of change Population growth New technology Unlimited choice 1 2 3 Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion 4 5 6  www.steria.no 05/05/2010 05.05.2010 77 Six forces of change
  • 78.  www.steria.no  Freedom to connect F d t t © Steria © Photo:
  • 79.  Across the globe  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 79 Six forces of change © Photo: Maskot Singles
  • 80.  Cross border exchange of goods  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 80 Six forces of change © Photo: Masterfile / R. Ian Lloyd
  • 81.  Cross border exchange of people  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 81 Six forces of change © Photo: Luth / Photographers Choice
  • 82.  Cross border exchange of culture  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 82 Six forces of change © Photo:
  • 83.  Cross border exchange of capital  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 83 Six forces of change © Photo: Corbis / Alan Schein Photography
  • 84.  And especially this…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 84 Six forces of change
  • 85.  Cross border exchange of information  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 85 Six forces of change © Photo:
  • 86.  Today, we can connect with blinding speed  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 86 Six forces of change
  • 87.  Easier than ever before  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 87 Six forces of change © Photo:
  • 88.  With the Internet and the Web as the platform  A map of the global Internet ▬ 700 million computers connected in a network of networks Source: MIT's Technology Review, Mapping the internet  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 88 Six forces of change
  • 89.  Everyone and everything is inextricably linked  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 89 Six forces of change
  • 90.  We have instant worldwide reach  Withj taf just few keystrokes k t k  And Social Media tools like:  www.steria.no © Photo: Photographers Choice05.05.2010 90 Six forces of change
  • 91.  It means that things spread  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 91 Six forces of change
  • 92.  Farther and faster than ever  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 92 Six forces of change © Photo:
  • 93.  The good stuff Democratization (voting right is key)  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 93 Six forces of change © Photo: PhotoDisc
  • 94.  The good stuff Democratization 60 Number of nations 1800-2003 scoring 8 or higher on Polity IV scale, 50 a measure of democracy 40 Score 30 20 10 Source: The Polity IV project. 05.05.2010  www.steria.no 94 Six forces of change Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratization
  • 95.  But also the really bad stuff  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 95 Six forces of change
  • 96.  But also the really bad stuff  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 96 Six forces of change
  • 97.  Now, let’s look at this…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 98 Six forces of change
  • 98.  The 6th. driver for change Population growth New technology Unlimited choice 1 2 3 Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion 4 5 6  www.steria.no 05/05/2010 05.05.2010 99 Six forces of change
  • 99.  Natural resources are being depleted at record rates  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 100 Six forces of change
  • 100.  2xEarths 2xEarths’ By 2050 we will be using TWICE as many natural resources as the Earth can replenish.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 101 Six forces of change SOURCE: WWF, A roadmap for a lving planet, 2009 © PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis
  • 101.  In th I the next 40 years t the pressure on Earth’s ecosystems will increase dramatically  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 102 Climate change
  • 102.  200% World demand for energy is expected to more than DOUBLE.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 103 Six forces of change SOURCE: European Comission, World Energy Technology Outlook to 2050, 2007 PLACE: Chicago © PHOTO: Scanpix / Folio / Tor Lindberg
  • 103.  300% The number of cars in the world is expected to TRIPLE. p  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 104 Six forces of change SOURCE: 50 by 50: Global Fuel Economy Initiative, 2009: FIA Foundation, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), International Energy Agency, International Transport Forum (ITF) © PHOTO: Pixtal
  • 104.  400% The size of the world economy (GDP) is expected to QUADRUPLE.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 105 Six forces of change SOURCE: European Comission, World Energy Technology Outlook to 2050, jan. 2007 PLACE: Ship near harbor in Singapore © PHOTO: Masterfile / R. Ian Lloyd
  • 105.  Parts of the world will grow and PROSPER.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 106 Six forces of change
  • 106.  1,5 1 5 billion Projected population in China. China is expected to become the world's LARGEST economy. world s  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 107 Six forces of change SOURCE: Goldman Sachs, The N-11: More Than an Acronym" - Goldman Sachs study of N11 nations, Global Economics Paper No: 153, March 28, 2007. © PHOTO: AFP / Liu Jin
  • 107.  1,6 1 6 billion Projected p p j population in India. India is expected to become the THIRD largest economy in the world.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 108 Six forces of change SOURCE: Goldman Sachs, The N-11: More Than an Acronym" - Goldman Sachs study of N11 nations, Global Economics Paper No: 153, March 28, 2007. © PHOTO: Reuters / Stringer / India
  • 108.  Other parts of the world will be DEVASTATED.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 109 Six forces of change
  • 109.  Crude Over the past 50 years, we have changed ecosystems more extensively than in any period in human history.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 110 Six forces of change SOURCE: World Resource Institute, Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis, 2005 PLACE: Oil-sand field in Canada © PHOTO: Scanpix / AFP / David Boily
  • 110.  90% of the large fish in the seas have been plundered.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 111 SOURCE: World Resource Institute, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 Six forces of change © PHOTO: Unknown
  • 111.  75% of the natural ecosystems on which we depend y p have already been degraded.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 112 Six forces of change SOURCE: WWF, A roadmap for a lving planet, 2009 © PHOTO: Luth / Fancy
  • 112.  50% of all the forests that once covered the Earth, , have been cleared for farmland and urban development.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 113 Six forces of change SOURCE: World Resources Institute, World Resources 1998–99 © PHOTO: Luth / Fancy
  • 113.  25% of all species is heading for extinction.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 114 Six forces of change SOURCE: Wildlife in a changing world, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 2008 EVENT: Seabird caught in fishnet
  • 114.  The competition for FOOD, WATER, LAND and ENERGY will intensify.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 115 Six forces of change
  • 115.  As we keep CROWDING the Earth.  www.steria.no EVENT: Earth at night 05.05.2010 116 Six forces of change © PHOTO: DMSP and NASA
  • 116.  In ever growing METROPOLISES  www.steria.no PLACE: Chicago 05.05.2010 117 Six forces of change © PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis / Robert Llewellyn
  • 117.  The KEY point is…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 118 Six forces of change
  • 118.  Unsustainable The fashion and speed in which we keep exploiting Earth, is simply unsustainable in the long term  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 119 Six forces of change © PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis
  • 119.  Food-shortages and malnutrition is striking already hard-hit areas.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 120 Six forces of change
  • 120.   www.steria.no 05.05.2010 121 Six forces of change EVENT: Food Crisis in Kolkata, West Bengal, India © PHOTO: Scanpix / ZUMA press
  • 121.  2 billion people are already affected by water scarcity.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 122 SOURCE: World Resource Institute, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 Six forcesWater crisis in Wangcheng county, central China, July 2007 EVENT: of change © PHOTO: Scanpix / Reuters
  • 122.  “ Up to 25% of the world s world’s food production may become lost due to environmental breakdown by 2050 unless action is taken.” – UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) , g ) ,The Environmental Food Crisis – The Environment's Role in Averting Future Food Crises, 2009  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 123 Six forces of change
  • 123.  Mass MIRGRATION is inevitable.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 124 Six forces of change
  • 124.  Migration Damage from climate change forces people to leave hard-hit rural areas to seek better conditions in already over-crowded cities.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 125 Six forces of change PLACE: India © PHOTO: Scanpix
  • 125.  1 billion billi are currently living as slum dwellers in the developing world’s cities.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 126 Six forces of change SOURCE: World Bank, World Development Report 2009 "Reshaping Economic Geography PLACE: Lagos in Nigeria © PHOTO: Getty
  • 126.  200 million Estimated number of climate refugees by 2050.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 127 Six forces of change SOURCE: Synthesis Report, Climate Change, Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions, 2009
  • 127.  So, please dear friend…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 128 Six forces of change
  • 128.  Help to create a sustainable world And safeguard our future  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 129 Six forces of change
  • 129.  We now have an UNIQUE chance. To be more creative than ever before. To totally rethink and redesign our lives: - How we get and use energy. - Ho we work and li e How e ork live. - How we make things.  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 130 Six forces of change © Photo: Scanpix / Reuters
  • 130.  To sum it all up  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 131 Six forces of change
  • 131.  Our lives are undergoing dramatic changes Population growth New technology Unlimited choice 1 2 3 Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion 4 5 6  www.steria.no 05/05/2010 05.05.2010 132 Six forces of change
  • 132.  Now, to the big question…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 133 Six forces of change
  • 133.  What to do  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 134 Six forces of change
  • 134.  www.steria.no  Time to adapt p © Steria © Photo:
  • 135.  Life and people has dramatically changed during the last 200 years  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 136 Six forces of change
  • 136.  Life is more complex  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 137 Six forces of change © Photo: Goodshoot
  • 137.  Pace of change is faster  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 138 Six forces of change
  • 138.  Pace of change will keep on increasing  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 139 Six forces of change © Photo: Brand X
  • 139.  “ The more complexity that is created, the easier it is for more complexity to emerge. Whether we like it or not, the pace of change is not going to keep increasing.” – Peter Russel, M.A., D.C.S., F.S.P. www.peterrussel.com  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 140 Six forces of change
  • 140.  Pressure to adapt is stronger than ever  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 141 Six forces of change © Photo: Image Source
  • 141.  Luckily we have a superior capability…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 142 Six forces of change
  • 142.  To adapt and evolve  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 143 Six forces of change
  • 143.  That brings us to the fourth revolutionary point in time  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 144 Six forces of change
  • 144.  The evolution revolution  Leading anthropologists are convinced that humans are evolving  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 145 Six forces of change © Photo: Masterfile / Scott Tysick
  • 145.  First, let’s get rid of a misconception…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 146 Six forces of change
  • 146.  Human evolution stopped a long time ago STOP  For most of the last century, the received wisdom in y, the social sciences has been that human evolution stopped a long time ago  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 147 Six forces of change
  • 147.  Wrong! It never stopped  Human beings are continuing to evolve as our g g g genes respond to rapid changes in the world around us  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 148 Six forces of change
  • 148.  Human evolution didn't stop when anatomically modern humans appeared out of Africa. It never stopped.” f Af i t d” – Henry Harpending anthropologists and Harpending, author of "The 10,000 Year Explosion”  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 149 Six forces of change
  • 149.  “ Our evolution has recently accelerated by around 100- fold. A key reason is the y enormous growth of the world's population, which multiplies the size of the gene pool available f to launch new varieties.” – John Hawks, assistant professor of anthropology, University of Wisconsin-Madison ”  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 150 Six forces of change
  • 150.  “ The pace of change has been so rapid that humans have changed significantly in body and mind over recorded history. history Several hundred at least, maybe over a thousand g genes are currently evolving.” y g – Henry Harpending, anthropologists and author of "The 10,000 Year Explosion” 10 000  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 151 Six forces of change
  • 151.  Just look at the generational differences…  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 152 Six forces of change
  • 152. Veterans Baby boomers Gen Xers Millennials born before 1946 born 1946 - 1964 born 1965 - 1980 born after 1980  Conformity  Experimental  Used be id d U d to b guided  Technically savvy  Conservatism  Individualism  Want work/life  Multitasking  Free spirited balance  Mix fun and work  Traditional family  Social cause  Independent  Heightened fears values oriented  Informal  Values security  Loyal  Question authority  Entrepreneurial and safety  Frugal  High change tolerance  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 153 Six forces of change
  • 153.  What about the future  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 154 Six forces of change © Photo: Masterfile / Bill Frymire
  • 154.  “ The only constant I am y sure of is this accelerating pace of change.” – From the song Downside Up by Peter Gabriel (1950- ), b P t G b i l (1950 ) British Rock Musician  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 155 Six forces of change © Photo: Scanpix / Heritage / Jewish Chronical
  • 155.  “ Our evolutionary lineage is marked by mastery of change change. In our time, the pace is quickening.” q g – Carl Sagan (1934 –1996) astronomer, astronomer astrochemist  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 156 Six forces of change © Photo: Michael Okoniewski
  • 156.  The adaptive imperative  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 157 Six forces of change
  • 157.  It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most adaptable to change.” – Charles Darwin, Origin of the Species, 1859  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 158 Six forces of change
  • 158.  Acknowledgements There are a lot of great presentations, books and articles on Anthropology, Social Psychology and Megatrends available on the web. A few in particular were noteworthy inspirations for this presentation, including:  The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution (Hardcover) by Gregory Cochran (Author), Henry Harpending, Basic Books (January 26, 2009), ISBN-10: 0465002218 Link: http://the10000yearexplosion.com/  Global Imperatives — The Accelerating Pace of Change: From Strategy to Execution, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Copyright 2008, ISBN 978-3-540-71879-6 (Print) 978-3-540-71880-2  Modern life's pressures may be hastening human evolution, By Robert S. Boyd, McClatchy Newspapers life s Link: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/staff/robert_boyd/story/65737.html  Why megatrends matter, Futureorientation, May 2006, Copenhagen Institue for Future Studies Link: http://www.cifs.dk/scripts/artikel.asp?id=1469  The Greatest Century That Ever Was: 25 Miraculous Trends of the Past 100 Years, by Stephen Moore and Julian L. Simon Link: http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa364.pdf  Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers & Dennis Meadows, Chelsea Green 2004 Update Meadows Meadows Green, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth  The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe, Mar. 2008, IDC White Paper - sponsored by EMC Link http://www.emc.com/leadership/digital-universe/expanding-digital-universe.htm  How Much Information?, UC Berkeley School of Information Management and systems, 2003 Link: http://www2.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how-much-info-2003/  When Choice is Demotivating: Can One Desire Too Much of a Good Thing? Sheena S Iyengar Columbia University & Mark R S. Iyengar, R. Lepper Stamford university. http://www.columbia.edu/~ss957/whenchoice.html  The history of the Integrated Circuit, www.Nobleprize.org Link: http://nobelprize.org/educational_games/physics/integrated_circuit/history/index.html  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 159 Six forces of change
  • 159.  Recommended books  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 160 Six forces of change
  • 160.  Created by Anders Lindgren marketing director, Steria AS www.steria.no  e mail: al@steria.no e-mail: al@steria no  www.linkedin.com: http://www.linkedin.com/in/anderslindgren4u  www.slideshare.com: anderslindgren4u  www.twitter.com: A d t itt AndersLindgren Li d  www.steria.no 05.05.2010 161 Six forces of change

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