[SIS] The Structure of Trends
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[SIS] The Structure of Trends

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[SIS] The Structure of Trends Presentation Transcript

  • 1. TIM STOCK 1 The Structure of Trends Strategic Design & Management Summer 2014
  • 2. TIM STOCK patterns patterns 2 past present future trends are about movement what is changing? (patterns) by what force? (codes emerge)
  • 3. TIM STOCK SUMMER 2014 3 what would she buy? are we seeing the full dynamics shaping her decisions?
  • 4. TIM STOCK SUMMER 2014 4 motive trendstory what I remember what I believe will happen evolution of narrative as sustained shift the structure is cognitive how perception and belief manifests as action and sustained behavior patternspatterns
  • 5. TIM STOCK 5 codes enable system 1 thinking system 1 vs. system 2
  • 6. TIM STOCK 6 trends are the output of cognitive systems
  • 7. TIM STOCK 7 trends flow from this unconscious narrative BEHAVIORPERCEPTIONwhat people believe how they act upon that belief we need to calibrate our sight to read the patterns in the signals
  • 8. TIM STOCK 8 cognitive indexes to measure trend scenarios finding the best signals that tells more of the story
  • 9. TIM STOCK 9 weather indexes what weather data impacts what we do and how we plan? BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
  • 10. TIM STOCK 10 the waffle house index the index of weather based on what you can still get at the Waffle House BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
  • 11. TIM STOCK 11 the Uggs index the perception of how long cold weather will last impacts sales. BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
  • 12. TIM STOCK 12 the flu index how can we predict outbreaks in illness before they have become epidemics? BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
  • 13. TIM STOCK 13 the google flu index how can we predict outbreaks in illness before they have become epidemics? BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
  • 14. TIM STOCK 14 stock market index what data points offer the greatest yields to plan investment? BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
  • 15. TIM STOCK 15 bad indexes feed market bubbles the value of markets rests on how we read perceptions of value BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
  • 16. TIM STOCK 16 trends are stories (we must learn to read them) what happens next? what clues are there? BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
  • 17. TIM STOCK plot setting language perspective conflict motivation and action are driven forward by cognitive dynamics what moves the story forward? 17
  • 18. TIM STOCK PHOTO: FLICKR/TIGERLILLYSHOP 18 everyday trend narratives from how much salt to how fast... the choices we make in every category have an unconscious cultural line of sight. plot setting language perspective conflict
  • 19. TIM STOCK 19 narrative dynamics/freytag’s pyramid rising action climax falling action these stories rise and fall as social dynamics shift exposition denouement image: @glennharper patterns notness kinship
  • 20. TIM STOCK past present future I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky 20 the physics of trends THE ICE the conditions that define the physics of response THE HIT how we perceive conditions and behave THE PATH where the puck will be understanding what will drive where things will be
  • 21. TIM STOCK patterns patterns 21 analyzing cyclical and sustained trends culture / expression / influencePERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES technology + government + social shifts past present future how trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior. historical PAST TRENDS cyclical MICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS sustained
  • 22. TIM STOCK 22 trend forces: economics the economy shapes our perception
  • 23. TIM STOCK middle class 65% upper class 2% lower class 27% 23 trend forces: economics economies with a growing middle class
  • 24. TIM STOCK 24 trend forces: employment shifts in access to employment and the type of jobs available
  • 25. TIM STOCK 25 trend forces: education how well are institutions preparing students for changing dynamics
  • 26. TIM STOCK 26 trend forces: government government impacts our sense of security and optimism
  • 27. TIM STOCK 27 there was a food ban in New York City in 2012 trend forces: government
  • 28. TIM STOCK 28 legalization of marijuana will have broader impact on trends and innovation trend forces: government
  • 29. TIM STOCK 29 trend forces: social shifts how relaxed or restrictive society appears
  • 30. TIM STOCK 30 trend forces: social shifts evolving aspirations results in migrations and new behaviors Monterrey, Mexico
  • 31. TIM STOCK 31 trend forces: technology how we access experiences
  • 32. TIM STOCK 32 trend forces: technology how invention can transform broader behavior
  • 33. TIM STOCK 33 trend forces: technology and begin to blur fundamentals of what is real and human Immersight positional tracking VR
  • 34. TIM STOCK past present future patterns patterns 34 trend forces impacting perception/behavior 2008 caution lack of credit unemployment shopping the pantry MICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS new normal the great recession exuberance deregulation borrowed money HISTORICAL increasing value
  • 35. TIM STOCK 35 trend forces impacting perception/behavior 2014 the new normal
  • 36. TIM STOCK 36 where will we live? what is livable? past present future urban renewal + recession + social migration urban expansion MICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS suburban renewalurban flight HISTORICAL what is livable? these potential futures are interwoven as a narrative system
  • 37. TIM STOCK 37 where will we live? these potential futures are interwoven as a narrative system
  • 38. TIM STOCK 38 shifts in expectation demographics economics where will we work? past present future technology permanent freelance MICRO TREND entrepren eurship MACRO TREND long term employment HISTORIAL shifts in expectation these potential futures are interwoven as a narrative system
  • 39. TIM STOCK 39 these potential futures are interwoven as a narrative system how we will love?
  • 40. TIM STOCK 40 these potential futures are interwoven as a narrative system Her (2014) how we will love?
  • 41. TIM STOCK 41 brand communication as trend affirmation how brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical
  • 42. TIM STOCK 42 brand communication as trend affirmation how brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession 2006 2009 2013 recovery
  • 43. TIM STOCK 43 brand communication as trend affirmation how brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES technology + economics + global politics “stylish” economic growth 2006
  • 44. TIM STOCK 44 brand communication as trend affirmation how brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES technology + economics + global politics economic growth recession “awareness”“stylish” 2006 2009
  • 45. TIM STOCK 45 brand communication as trend affirmation how brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES technology + economics + global politics economic growth recession “awareness”“stylish” 2006 2009 “equipped” 2013 recovery
  • 46. TIM STOCK 46 brand communication evolves how brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical 2014
  • 47. TIM STOCK belief + currency + influencePERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES economics + materials + technology 47 forecasting near term - cyclical consumption what will sell? MICRO TRENDS past present future
  • 48. TIM STOCK 48 cognitive features feed cyclical consumption color is a system 1 tool for the designer
  • 49. TIM STOCK 49 timing cognitive features with cultural shifts past present future Peter Pilotto for Target MICRO TRENDS features HISTORICAL features notness sustainability
  • 50. TIM STOCK 50 the broader meaning of vinyl records past present future pushback on new technology MICRO TRENDS how might this evolve? MACRO TRENDS how do you read this signal? what are the implications?
  • 51. TIM STOCK 51 the story is bigger than the one signal cultural systems (connotation)
  • 52. TIM STOCK 52 DIY fashion - reading the dynamics sourcing other trend signals that share similar codes past present future creative involvement MICRO TRENDS how might this sustain? MACRO TRENDS
  • 53. TIM STOCK understanding the cultural dimensions that will impact the brand 53 LANGUAGE CODES CULTURE STORY business case: Starbucks
  • 54. TIM STOCK CODES SIGNIFIERS PERSONAL TRANSPARENT CRAFT PHYSICAL SOCIAL SHARING TABLES GREEN MARKETS 54 TREND FORCES PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR sourcing emergent codes to fuel innovation
  • 55. TIM STOCK BOULANGERIES GROWLERS 55 sourcing emergent codes to fuel innovation TREND FORCES PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR CODES SIGNIFIERS PERSONAL TRANSPARENT CRAFT PHYSICAL SOCIAL
  • 56. TIM STOCK STARBUCKS RETAIL STARBUCKS VERISMO 56 TREND FORCES PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR forecasting how innovation platforms will evolve CODES SIGNIFIERS PERSONAL TRANSPARENT CRAFT PHYSICAL SOCIAL
  • 57. TIM STOCK 57 exercise: what forces are making the product work today? how does the product need to evolve? patterns patterns past present future