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TIM STOCK 1
Reading Signals & Patterns
LECTURE ONE
Fall 2013Analyzing Trends |
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storiespatternsmapssignals
the framework for analyzing and
innovating on trends
2
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signals
5
forecasting: thinking like a precog
to predict (a future condition or occurrence); calculate in advanc...
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signals
6
exercise: what trend forecasts did you find?
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signals
7
framing the future of _________
The Future of
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signals
7
framing the future of _________
The Future of CARS
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signals
7
framing the future of _________
The Future of FACTORIES
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the future forecast of advertising & retail
what factors might prevent this forecast?
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signals
9
“The signal is the truth. The noise is what
distracts us from the truth.” -Nate Silver
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signals
10
forecasting the 2012 election
how did Nate get it right? did bias play a role in others
getting it wr...
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signals
12
decoding cronuts
fad or trend? start by decoding the language.
the trend can
live inside
the fad
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signals past present future
13
traditional methods have us chasing insights
the real insights are in the pattern...
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signals past
data
present future
13
traditional methods have us chasing insights
the real insights are in the pa...
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signals past
data
present future
intelligence
13
traditional methods have us chasing insights
the real insights ...
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signals
14
focus groups and surveys are misused
they miss how motivation is shaped in a networked world
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signals
15
the intimacy of data transforms research
we need to rethink how we frame the research process
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signals
16
current research gets caught in echo chambers
category
brand
we inadvertently impose our existing bel...
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signals
17
steve was right: research needs a reboot
“you can’t ask people what they want” -Steve Jobs
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signals
18
we are expressive beings
technology transforms this exponentially (research should keep up)
reflexive...
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trends are perceptions that
manifest as behavior
belief
language
kinship
culture
signals
the mechanics of consum...
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signals
our perception drives brand meaning
20
our kinship drives motivation and loyalty to brands
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signals
motive
story
trend
where most
research
focuses
22
the signals we track should reveal the
whole consumer ...
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signals LANGUAGE BEHAVIOR
23
expressive research is social mechanics
it’s about understanding the networks that ...
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signals
24
culture is the product
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past present future
patterns patterns
signals
24
culture is the product
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signals
25
why did the mini skirt catch on?
culture is the product
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past present future
patterns patterns
signals
25
why did the mini skirt catch on?
culture is the product
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signals
26
why are city people dressing and eating like the Amish?
culture is the product
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past present future
patterns patterns
signals
26
why are city people dressing and eating like the Amish?
culture...
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signals
what is driving people to detoxing?
culture is the product
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past present future
patterns patterns
27
signals
what is driving people to detoxing?
culture is the product
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signals
28
Mexican Coca Cola has a new cult following in the US
culture is the product
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past present future
patterns patterns
signals
28
Mexican Coca Cola has a new cult following in the US
culture is...
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signals
29
organic food dominates grocery shelves today - how did
we get to this point? is it sustainable?
cultu...
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past present future
patterns patterns
signals
29
organic food dominates grocery shelves today - how did
we get t...
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signals
brand architecture scrambles to keep up
(a new perspective is needed)
30
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past present future
patterns patterns
signals
brand architecture scrambles to keep up
(a new perspective is need...
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signals
innovation is a mating game
we need to synchronize with cultural signals and
conspire in future stories
...
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signals
32
Keihl’s is a story in grassroots cultural innovation
the best brands don’t advertise (why?)
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signals
33
Huy Fong Food’s Sriracha Sauce
the best brands don’t advertise
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signals
outliers help us find the rituals and
behaviors that feed innovation
34
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signals
extreme groups show us where language/
behavior is going next
35
source: Fast Company
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FISSION-FUSION
the nature of the main parent
group can fracture into smaller
stable subgroups to adapt to
enviro...
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signals
37
signals migrate in small networks
structuring the data via culture mapping reveals
linguistic signatu...
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signals
Just for Kicks
culture networks create new categories
sneaker culture is interwoven into urban subcultur...
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signals
who invented the mountain bike?
39
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signals
the language cultivated in these small networks works as
kinship reinforcement as it radiates out throug...
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signals
41
Perception
/Culture
Brand
Attributes
cultures tune in ingredients
when we think of building new featu...
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signals
craft brews in china
with the arrival of craft brewing has come more options, new
tastes and a new cultu...
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signals
developing a clear brand narrative in the midst of
category decline and and a brand merger
case study...
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POPSUBCULTURE
SOBER SENSORIAL
cultural
archetype
cultural
archetype
cultural
archetype
45
Mainstream
Sub Culture...
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POPSUBCULTURE
SOBER SENSORIAL
cultural
archetype
vintage cues
cultural
archetype
the realm of the
craft brew dri...
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signals
sourcing cultures to reveal brand signifiers
that reveal emergent trends
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• mobile polling
• creative & tonal recommendations
47
signals
case study: coffemate
understand what self-brew c...
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signals
developing culture driven archetypes to frame insights
why do we drink coffee?
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POPCULTUSUBCULTURE
SOBER SENSORIAL
Networkers
SOCIAL
MOBILITY
48
signals
developing culture driven archetypes to...
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POPCULTUSUBCULTURE
SOBER SENSORIAL
Networkers
Energizers
ENERGY
HEALTH
SOCIAL
MOBILITY
48
signals
developing cul...
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POPCULTUSUBCULTURE
SOBER SENSORIAL
Networkers
Mixologists Energizers
ENERGY
HEALTH
SOCIAL
MOBILITY
48
signals
de...
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signals
49
“The limits of my language are the
limits of my world.” [Ludwig Wittgenstein]
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past present future
patterns patterns
signals
50
language is the data of the new economy
underrstanding how lang...
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THE
SEMANTIC
WEB
signals
connecting language with expression within small networks
the context of language is cr...
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signals
52
social media is a firehose of language
knowing how to read these signals as anthropology
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signals
using listening tools to track
these signals
53
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signals
55
steve was right: ”you can build
your own things”
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signals stories
from signal to story... synchronizing
brands for purpose and sustainablity
56
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signals stories
from signal to story... synchronizing
brands for purpose and sustainablity
56
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INNOVATION
signals stories
from signal to story... synchronizing
brands for purpose and sustainablity
56
BRAND
A...
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1
3 4
2
signals
break into 4 groups groups of 5/6 people
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signals
Group Exercise a preview of our
workshop next week
59
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signals
what are the signals?
60
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signals
what are the signals?
61
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signals
what are the signals?
62
Reading Signals & Patterns (Analyzing Trends Fall 2013)
Reading Signals & Patterns (Analyzing Trends Fall 2013)
Reading Signals & Patterns (Analyzing Trends Fall 2013)
Reading Signals & Patterns (Analyzing Trends Fall 2013)
Reading Signals & Patterns (Analyzing Trends Fall 2013)
Reading Signals & Patterns (Analyzing Trends Fall 2013)
Reading Signals & Patterns (Analyzing Trends Fall 2013)
Reading Signals & Patterns (Analyzing Trends Fall 2013)
Reading Signals & Patterns (Analyzing Trends Fall 2013)
Reading Signals & Patterns (Analyzing Trends Fall 2013)
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Reading Signals & Patterns (Analyzing Trends Fall 2013)

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Lecture One in Analyzing Trends Fall 2013 at Parsons the New School for Design. Please email to request a download.

Transcript of "Reading Signals & Patterns (Analyzing Trends Fall 2013)"

  1. 1. TIM STOCK 1 Reading Signals & Patterns LECTURE ONE Fall 2013Analyzing Trends |
  2. 2. TIM STOCK storiespatternsmapssignals the framework for analyzing and innovating on trends 2
  3. 3. TIM STOCK signals 5 forecasting: thinking like a precog to predict (a future condition or occurrence); calculate in advance.
  4. 4. TIM STOCK signals 6 exercise: what trend forecasts did you find?
  5. 5. TIM STOCK signals 7 framing the future of _________ The Future of
  6. 6. TIM STOCK signals 7 framing the future of _________ The Future of CARS
  7. 7. TIM STOCK signals 7 framing the future of _________ The Future of FACTORIES
  8. 8. TIM STOCK 8 the future forecast of advertising & retail what factors might prevent this forecast?
  9. 9. TIM STOCK signals 9 “The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.” -Nate Silver
  10. 10. TIM STOCK signals 10 forecasting the 2012 election how did Nate get it right? did bias play a role in others getting it wrong?
  11. 11. TIM STOCK signals 11 strong signals vs. weak signals distinguishing fads from trends
  12. 12. TIM STOCK signals 12 decoding cronuts fad or trend? start by decoding the language. the trend can live inside the fad
  13. 13. TIM STOCK signals past present future 13 traditional methods have us chasing insights the real insights are in the patterns of behavior and language
  14. 14. TIM STOCK signals past data present future 13 traditional methods have us chasing insights the real insights are in the patterns of behavior and language
  15. 15. TIM STOCK signals past data present future intelligence 13 traditional methods have us chasing insights the real insights are in the patterns of behavior and language
  16. 16. TIM STOCK signals 14 focus groups and surveys are misused they miss how motivation is shaped in a networked world
  17. 17. TIM STOCK signals 15 the intimacy of data transforms research we need to rethink how we frame the research process
  18. 18. TIM STOCK signals 16 current research gets caught in echo chambers category brand we inadvertently impose our existing beliefs onto the framework.
  19. 19. TIM STOCK signals 17 steve was right: research needs a reboot “you can’t ask people what they want” -Steve Jobs
  20. 20. TIM STOCK signals 18 we are expressive beings technology transforms this exponentially (research should keep up) reflexive research expressive research
  21. 21. TIM STOCK trends are perceptions that manifest as behavior belief language kinship culture signals the mechanics of consumer trends 19
  22. 22. TIM STOCK signals our perception drives brand meaning 20 our kinship drives motivation and loyalty to brands
  23. 23. TIM STOCK signals motive story trend where most research focuses 22 the signals we track should reveal the whole consumer journey...
  24. 24. TIM STOCK signals motive story trend what we miss where most research focuses 22 the signals we track should reveal the whole consumer journey... existing hidden symbolic production
  25. 25. TIM STOCK signals LANGUAGE BEHAVIOR 23 expressive research is social mechanics it’s about understanding the networks that drive language and behavior.
  26. 26. TIM STOCK signals 24 culture is the product
  27. 27. TIM STOCK past present future patterns patterns signals 24 culture is the product
  28. 28. TIM STOCK signals 25 why did the mini skirt catch on? culture is the product
  29. 29. TIM STOCK past present future patterns patterns signals 25 why did the mini skirt catch on? culture is the product
  30. 30. TIM STOCK signals 26 why are city people dressing and eating like the Amish? culture is the product
  31. 31. TIM STOCK past present future patterns patterns signals 26 why are city people dressing and eating like the Amish? culture is the product
  32. 32. TIM STOCK 27 signals what is driving people to detoxing? culture is the product
  33. 33. TIM STOCK past present future patterns patterns 27 signals what is driving people to detoxing? culture is the product
  34. 34. TIM STOCK signals 28 Mexican Coca Cola has a new cult following in the US culture is the product
  35. 35. TIM STOCK past present future patterns patterns signals 28 Mexican Coca Cola has a new cult following in the US culture is the product
  36. 36. TIM STOCK signals 29 organic food dominates grocery shelves today - how did we get to this point? is it sustainable? culture is the product
  37. 37. TIM STOCK past present future patterns patterns signals 29 organic food dominates grocery shelves today - how did we get to this point? is it sustainable? culture is the product
  38. 38. TIM STOCK signals brand architecture scrambles to keep up (a new perspective is needed) 30
  39. 39. TIM STOCK past present future patterns patterns signals brand architecture scrambles to keep up (a new perspective is needed) 30
  40. 40. TIM STOCK signals innovation is a mating game we need to synchronize with cultural signals and conspire in future stories 31
  41. 41. TIM STOCK signals 32 Keihl’s is a story in grassroots cultural innovation the best brands don’t advertise (why?)
  42. 42. TIM STOCK signals 33 Huy Fong Food’s Sriracha Sauce the best brands don’t advertise
  43. 43. TIM STOCK signals outliers help us find the rituals and behaviors that feed innovation 34
  44. 44. TIM STOCK signals extreme groups show us where language/ behavior is going next 35 source: Fast Company
  45. 45. TIM STOCK FISSION-FUSION the nature of the main parent group can fracture into smaller stable subgroups to adapt to environmental or social circumstances. Aa b c de signals 36 social groups are kinetic the true power of social groups is in how language is shared, cultivated and results in new cultural phenomenon.
  46. 46. TIM STOCK signals 37 signals migrate in small networks structuring the data via culture mapping reveals linguistic signatures and patterns
  47. 47. TIM STOCK signals Just for Kicks culture networks create new categories sneaker culture is interwoven into urban subcultures... the cleaning of the shoes had its own culture... 38
  48. 48. TIM STOCK signals who invented the mountain bike? 39
  49. 49. TIM STOCK signals the language cultivated in these small networks works as kinship reinforcement as it radiates out through society the language of small networks: is it local? 40
  50. 50. TIM STOCK signals 41 Perception /Culture Brand Attributes cultures tune in ingredients when we think of building new features or adding to the brand, we should ask where that meaning resonates most strongly and how.
  51. 51. TIM STOCK signals craft brews in china with the arrival of craft brewing has come more options, new tastes and a new culture. 42
  52. 52. TIM STOCK 43 signals developing a clear brand narrative in the midst of category decline and and a brand merger case study: miller lite
  53. 53. TIM STOCK 44 signals american beer advertising was stuck in college
  54. 54. TIM STOCK POPSUBCULTURE SOBER SENSORIAL cultural archetype cultural archetype cultural archetype 45 Mainstream Sub Culture signals finding cultural signals to inform the brand?
  55. 55. TIM STOCK POPSUBCULTURE SOBER SENSORIAL cultural archetype vintage cues cultural archetype the realm of the craft brew drinker cultural archetype cultural archetype cultural archetype cultural archetype new social space of mixed company 45 Mainstream Sub Culture signals finding cultural signals to inform the brand?
  56. 56. TIM STOCK 46 signals sourcing cultures to reveal brand signifiers that reveal emergent trends
  57. 57. TIM STOCK • mobile polling • creative & tonal recommendations 47 signals case study: coffemate understand what self-brew coffee drinking means to young adults
  58. 58. TIM STOCK 48 signals developing culture driven archetypes to frame insights why do we drink coffee?
  59. 59. TIM STOCK POPCULTUSUBCULTURE SOBER SENSORIAL Networkers SOCIAL MOBILITY 48 signals developing culture driven archetypes to frame insights why do we drink coffee?
  60. 60. TIM STOCK POPCULTUSUBCULTURE SOBER SENSORIAL Networkers Energizers ENERGY HEALTH SOCIAL MOBILITY 48 signals developing culture driven archetypes to frame insights why do we drink coffee?
  61. 61. TIM STOCK POPCULTUSUBCULTURE SOBER SENSORIAL Networkers Mixologists Energizers ENERGY HEALTH SOCIAL MOBILITY 48 signals developing culture driven archetypes to frame insights FLAVOR PAIRINGS why do we drink coffee?
  62. 62. TIM STOCK signals 49 “The limits of my language are the limits of my world.” [Ludwig Wittgenstein]
  63. 63. TIM STOCK past present future patterns patterns signals 50 language is the data of the new economy underrstanding how language evolves in context is critical to transformative consumer intelligence
  64. 64. TIM STOCK THE SEMANTIC WEB signals connecting language with expression within small networks the context of language is critical to getting the best signals 51
  65. 65. TIM STOCK signals 52 social media is a firehose of language knowing how to read these signals as anthropology
  66. 66. TIM STOCK signals using listening tools to track these signals 53
  67. 67. TIM STOCK signals 55 steve was right: ”you can build your own things”
  68. 68. TIM STOCK signals stories from signal to story... synchronizing brands for purpose and sustainablity 56
  69. 69. TIM STOCK signals stories from signal to story... synchronizing brands for purpose and sustainablity 56
  70. 70. TIM STOCK INNOVATION signals stories from signal to story... synchronizing brands for purpose and sustainablity 56 BRAND ARCHITECTURE
  71. 71. TIM STOCK 57 1 3 4 2 signals break into 4 groups groups of 5/6 people
  72. 72. TIM STOCK 30” x 40” foam board 58 signals Group Assignment due 9/23 work in teams of 2product analysis board
  73. 73. TIM STOCK signals Group Exercise a preview of our workshop next week 59
  74. 74. TIM STOCK signals what are the signals? 60
  75. 75. TIM STOCK signals what are the signals? 61
  76. 76. TIM STOCK signals what are the signals? 62
  77. 77. TIM STOCK next week 63 Product Language Workshop we meet in: i909 55 West 13th Street this is the setup to your first group assignment (be there) source a packaged beverage product

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