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Patterning Codes & Trends (Analyzing Trends Fall 2013)
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Patterning Codes & Trends (Analyzing Trends Fall 2013)

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  • 1. TIM STOCK 1 LECTURE TWO Fall 2013Analyzing Trends | Patterning Codes & Trends
  • 2. scenarioDNA connecting brands to culture| patterns 2 framing the future of _________ The Future of
  • 3. TIM STOCK patterns patterns 3 patterns how vs. what past present future trends are in motion implies movement... in a state of moving... moving where? what is moving? by what force?
  • 4. TIM STOCK 4 patterns trends require the belief and action of people in the context of society BEHAVIORPERCEPTIONwhat people believe how they act upon that belief we need to calibrate our sight to read the patterns in the signals
  • 5. TIM STOCK patterns patterns past present future what I remember what I believe will happen 5 patterns the structure is cognitive how perception and belief manifests as action and sustained behavior
  • 6. TIM STOCK 6 patterns cognitive indexes finding the best signals that tells more of the story
  • 7. TIM STOCK 7 patterns weather indexes what weather data impacts what we do and how we plan? BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
  • 8. TIM STOCK 8 patterns the waffle house index we track the impact of weather based on what you can still get at the Waffle House BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
  • 9. TIM STOCK 9 patterns the flu index how can we predict outbreaks in illness before they have become epidemics? BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
  • 10. TIM STOCK 10 patterns the flu index how can we predict outbreaks in illness before they have become epidemics? BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
  • 11. TIM STOCK 11 patterns stock market index what data points offer the greatest yields to plan investment? BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
  • 12. TIM STOCK 12 patterns bad indexes feed market bubbles the value of markets rests on how we read perceptions of value BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
  • 13. TIM STOCK 13 patterns trends are stories (we must learn to read them) what happens next? what clues are there? BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
  • 14. TIM STOCK patterns motivation and action are driven forward by cognitive dynamics what moves the story forward? 14
  • 15. TIM STOCK patterns plot setting language perspective conflict motivation and action are driven forward by cognitive dynamics what moves the story forward? 14
  • 16. TIM STOCKconnecting brands to culture|scenarioDNA PHOTO: FLICKR/TIGERLILLYSHOP 15 patterns everyday trend narratives from how much salt to how fast... the choices we make in every category have an unconscious cultural line of sight.
  • 17. TIM STOCKconnecting brands to culture|scenarioDNA PHOTO: FLICKR/TIGERLILLYSHOP 15 patterns everyday trend narratives from how much salt to how fast... the choices we make in every category have an unconscious cultural line of sight. plot setting language perspective conflict
  • 18. TIM STOCK 16 patterns narrative dynamics/freytag’s pyramid rising action climax falling action these stories rise and fall as social dynamics shift exposition denouement image: @glennharper
  • 19. TIM STOCK past present future I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky 17 patterns the physics of trends understanding what will drive where things will be
  • 20. TIM STOCK past present future I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky 17 patterns the physics of trends THE ICE the conditions that define the physics of response understanding what will drive where things will be
  • 21. TIM STOCK past present future I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky 17 patterns the physics of trends THE ICE the conditions that define the physics of response THE HIT how we percieve conditions and behave understanding what will drive where things will be
  • 22. TIM STOCK past present future I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky 17 patterns the physics of trends THE ICE the conditions that define the physics of response THE HIT how we percieve conditions and behave THE PATH where the puck will be understanding what will drive where things will be
  • 23. TIM STOCK patterns patterns 18 patterns the structure of trends how trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior. culture / expression / influencePERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES technology + government + society past present future
  • 24. TIM STOCK patterns patterns 18 patterns the structure of trends how trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior. culture / expression / influencePERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES technology + government + society past present future MACRO TRENDS sustainedcyclical MICRO TRENDS historical PAST TRENDS
  • 25. TIM STOCK present future caution PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES 19 patterns macro trends - how trusting will we be? mortgage bubble unemployment 2008
  • 26. TIM STOCK present future caution PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR shopping the pantry MICRO TRENDS TREND FORCES 19 patterns macro trends - how trusting will we be? mortgage bubble unemployment 2008
  • 27. TIM STOCK present future caution PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR MACRO TRENDS new normal shopping the pantry MICRO TRENDS TREND FORCES 19 patterns macro trends - how trusting will we be? mortgage bubble unemployment 2008
  • 28. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES 20 patterns analyzing generational trend dynamics BOOMERS MILLENNIALS millennials and baby boomers are interlinked in how the future is defined expectation/ aspiration role of government public resources
  • 29. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES 20 patterns analyzing generational trend dynamics BOOMERS no jobs/ high loans MICRO TRENDS retirement bankruptcy/ living longer MILLENNIALS millennials and baby boomers are interlinked in how the future is defined expectation/ aspiration role of government public resources
  • 30. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES 20 patterns analyzing generational trend dynamics MACRO TRENDS healthcare reform education reform BOOMERS no jobs/ high loans MICRO TRENDS retirement bankruptcy/ living longer MILLENNIALS millennials and baby boomers are interlinked in how the future is defined expectation/ aspiration role of government public resources
  • 31. TIM STOCK MACRO TRENDS no jobs/ high loans healthcare reform MICRO TRENDS 21 patterns expressed language as index education reform TEA PARTY retirement bankruptcy/ living longer OCCUPY occupy vs. tea party PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES present future expectation/ aspiration role of government public resources
  • 32. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES patterns 22 conditions surrounding rites of passage shape longer term outlook what is the future of work? shifts in expectation demographics education
  • 33. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES permanent freelance MICRO TREND patterns 22 conditions surrounding rites of passage shape longer term outlook what is the future of work? entrepren eurship MACRO TREND shifts in expectation demographics education
  • 34. TIM STOCK 23 patterns brand communication as trend affirmation how brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES technology + economics + global politics “stylish” economic growth 2006
  • 35. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES 25 patterns forecasting where millennials will live? the future prediction relies on evolving perceptions of livability what is livable? urban renewal recession
  • 36. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES urban expansion MICRO TRENDS 25 patterns forecasting where millennials will live? the future prediction relies on evolving perceptions of livability what is livable? urban renewal recession
  • 37. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES MACRO TRENDS suburban renewal urban expansion MICRO TRENDS 25 patterns forecasting where millennials will live? the future prediction relies on evolving perceptions of livability what is livable? urban renewal recession
  • 38. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR codes 26 patterns forecasting future health epidemiological data reveals the impact of cheaper high caloric foods and shifts in living patterns TREND FORCES rewing eating behavior cheap foods emerging markets
  • 39. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR codes 26 patterns forecasting future health epidemiological data reveals the impact of cheaper high caloric foods and shifts in living patterns TREND FORCES obesity rates MICRO TRENDS rewing eating behavior cheap foods emerging markets
  • 40. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR codes 26 patterns forecasting future health epidemiological data reveals the impact of cheaper high caloric foods and shifts in living patterns TREND FORCES MACRO TRENDS health care costs obesity rates MICRO TRENDS rewing eating behavior cheap foods emerging markets
  • 41. TIM STOCK present future belief + currency + influencePERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES economics + materials + technology what will sell? MICRO TRENDS 27 patterns forecasting near term - cyclical consumption micro trends are expressions of response to contextual shifts
  • 42. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES what colors? MICRO TRENDS 28 patterns cognitive features feed cyclical consumption
  • 43. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES commuication? MICRO TRENDS 29 patterns cognitive features feed brand stories features?
  • 44. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES pushback on new technology MICRO TRENDS 30 patterns features that emerge as codes - vinyl records how we read emerging trends and their adoption helps forecasting
  • 45. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES creative involvement MICRO TRENDS 31 patterns features that emerge as codes - DIY fashion sourcing other trend signals that share similar codes
  • 46. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES introspection MICRO TRENDS self-actualization patterns 32 features that emerge as codes - relaxation foods even fads offer insight into behavioral shifts
  • 47. TIM STOCK 33 patterns developing viable forecast scenarios what impact does government food bans have? 2012
  • 48. TIM STOCK present future belief + currency + influencePERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES obesity + government + healthcare ??? MICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS ??? 33 patterns developing viable forecast scenarios what impact does government food bans have? 2012
  • 49. TIM STOCK patterns patterns PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES past present future patterns 34 language is how we get to trends understanding how language evolves in context is critical to transformative consumer intelligence
  • 50. TIM STOCK 35 patterns trend analytics - reading and patterning signals LANGUAGE CODES CULTURE STORY
  • 51. TIM STOCK patterns analytics helps better understand the cultural dimension of the language ... 36 LANGUAGE CODES CULTURE STORY
  • 52. TIM STOCK CODES SIGNIFIERS LOCAL TRANSPARENCY CRAFT PHYSICAL ARTISAN LOCAL COFFEE HOUSES LOCAL GREEN MARKETS 37 patterns sourcing emergent signifiers - trend codes TREND FORCES PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR
  • 53. TIM STOCK BOULANGERIES GROWLERS 38 patterns sourcing emergent signifiers - trend codes CODES SIGNIFIERS LOCAL TRANSPARENCY CRAFT PHYSICAL ARTISAN TREND FORCES PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR
  • 54. TIM STOCK STARBUCKS RETAIL STARBUCKS VERISMO 39 patterns CODES SIGNIFIERS LOCAL TRANSPARENCY CRAFT PHYSICAL ARTISAN TREND FORCES PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR trend codes and brand architecture - Starbucks
  • 55. TIM STOCK 40 patterns cultural analytics: studying patterns in language google ngram is a tool that allows to test linguistic patterning on a large corpus of scanned texts
  • 56. TIM STOCK 41 patterns google ngram as cultural analytics google ngram is a tool that allows to test linguistic patterning on a large corpus of scanned texts
  • 57. TIM STOCK 42 patterns patterns in language - victory gardens WW2 1940
  • 58. TIM STOCK PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR 43 patterns victory gardens as an ngram visualization 1939 1970 TREND FORCES wartime + government + patriotism counter culture + recession austerity sustainability
  • 59. TIM STOCK 1969 1981 patterns drug culture as expressed language what trend forces correlate to the peaks in narrative? 44
  • 60. TIM STOCK PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR 45 patterns drug culture as an ngram visualization 1965 1980 TREND FORCES wartime + government + patriotism counter culture + recession rebellion + rites of passage + status status rebellion
  • 61. TIM STOCK 46 patterns patterns in language - aspiration culture 1984
  • 62. TIM STOCK patterns aspiration as expressed language 47 1984 2000 language acts as a social glue for emerging kinship groups
  • 63. TIM STOCK PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES economic boom + new urbanism sushi cappuccino 1985 48 patterns trends as signifiers - yuppie culture status + fraternity + rank
  • 64. TIM STOCK made in usa 2000 PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES 9/11 + new urbanism 49 patterns trends as signifiers - bobo culture guilt + process + local
  • 65. TIM STOCK 50 patterns patterns in language - craft beer 1980 Jack McAuliffe /Albion Beer
  • 66. TIM STOCK PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES new urbanism + globalism + coffee imports 1986 20001992 patterns patterns in language - craft beer 51 trade up local home brew craft mainstreamingcult taste
  • 67. TIM STOCK TREND FORCES PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR patterns 52 trends as innovation - where do we invest? how does a car company leverage trends? what is the meaning of the car? 2013 why do I need a car? technology fuel costs urban planning
  • 68. TIM STOCK TREND FORCES PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR patterns 52 economical MICRO TRENDS trends as innovation - where do we invest? how does a car company leverage trends? what is the meaning of the car? 2013 why do I need a car? technology fuel costs urban planning
  • 69. TIM STOCK TREND FORCES PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR patterns 52 economical MICRO TRENDS appliance MACRO TRENDS trends as innovation - where do we invest? how does a car company leverage trends? what is the meaning of the car? 2013 why do I need a car? technology fuel costs urban planning
  • 70. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES 53 1960 Ford Falcon patterns micro trends shaping brand & retail communication I drive everywhere cheap materials suburbia abundant oil
  • 71. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES second car MICRO TREND 53 1960 Ford Falcon patterns micro trends shaping brand & retail communication I drive everywhere cheap materials suburbia abundant oil
  • 72. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES 2002 Hummer post-9/11 54 patterns micro trends shaping brand & retail communication why do I need a car? 9/11 militarism emergency preparedness
  • 73. TIM STOCK present future PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES car as fallout shelter MICRO TREND 2002 Hummer post-9/11 54 patterns micro trends shaping brand & retail communication why do I need a car? 9/11 militarism emergency preparedness
  • 74. TIM STOCK PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES technology + economics + global politics 55 patterns trends as innovation - where do we invest? more flexible vehicles car as appliance freedom utility 1980 electric car the viability depends on how well we read the evolving dynamics
  • 75. TIM STOCK 2012 Nissan Cube 56 patterns generational meaning - Boomers vs. Millennials TREND FORCES technology + economics + global politics PERCEPTION /BEHAVIOR Boomers Millennials(freedom) (utility)
  • 76. TIM STOCK TREND FORCES PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR appliance MICRO TREND MACRO TREND transportpatterns Google Driverless Car 57 2013 geo-location + artificial intelligence car as utility the car evolves into a wired appliance forecasting future meaning - trend dynamics
  • 77. TIM STOCK TREND FORCES PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR MICRO TREND MACRO TREND insurance geo-location + artificial intelligence car as utility source: Wired.com/Autopia 58 patterns you won’t need a driver’s license in the future forecasting future meaning - trend dynamics telematics future
  • 78. TIM STOCK TREND FORCES PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR transparency technology + farming + government subsidies eating tastes and behavior quantity 59 patterns quality past present future trends as innovation: how will we buy food? what trend forces are likely to impact future patterns?
  • 79. TIM STOCK TREND FORCES PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR patterns our past “future”: technology drove behavior 60 frozen foods shaped behavior towards quantity and convenience 1960 technology rewires meaning appliances suburbia globalism
  • 80. TIM STOCK TREND FORCES PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR patterns our past “future”: technology drove behavior 60 frozen foods shaped behavior towards quantity and convenience 1960 MICRO TRENDS quantity food science technology rewires meaning appliances suburbia globalism
  • 81. TIM STOCK FROZEN PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES 61 patterns fixed / standardized clean / alive our move to fresher food placed new demands on frozen food shifts in perception reframe older technologies 1960 2013 FRESH fixed FRESH technology + economics + global politics
  • 82. TIM STOCK PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES 62 patterns convenience craft where do we invest? the evolution of food signals FROZEN FRESH1960 2013 technology + economics + global politics
  • 83. TIM STOCK 1980 PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR TREND FORCES technology + economics + global politics 63 patterns convenience craft language reveals the point that culture begins to change course tracking inflection points
  • 84. TIM STOCK TREND FORCES PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR MACRO TREND farming/retail hybridspatterns our projected future: rewiring physical connection 64 the meaning of food is shaped by our access to it future
  • 85. TIM STOCK TREND FORCES PERCEPTION/ BEHAVIOR MACRO TREND farming/retail hybridspatterns our projected future: rewiring physical connection 64 the meaning of food is shaped by our access to it future I trust food I see grown production fuel costs sustainability
  • 86. TIM STOCK 65 •use google ngram to test some of the language from your product boards workshop •post a couple of the best visualizations to your Tumblr site