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Analyzing Trends Product Language Workshop (Spring 2013)
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Analyzing Trends Product Language Workshop (Spring 2013) Presentation Transcript

  • 1. analyzing trends | parsons the new school for designPRODUCT LANGUAGEWORKSHOP
  • 2. UNCOVERING THE PATTERNS IN THE STORY MACRO TREND identifying emerging long term themes CODES unlocking the grammar that structures consumption PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR analyzing what people believe and how they actTREND FORCES tracking the triggers of cultural cascades 2 TIM STOCK
  • 3. THE TRIGGERS THAT REVEAL TREND MOVEMENT language belief trends are perceptions that manifest as behavior kinship culture 3 TIM STOCK
  • 4. UNCOVERING MOTIVES Fun Buying for others Healthy Buying for me Nostalgic Age Defying MACRO TRENDS MICRO TRENDS what are people searching for? PERCEPTION / CODESTREND FORCES the context of consumption 4 TIM STOCK
  • 5. PERCEPTION IS REALITY MACRO TRENDS MICRO TRENDS what are people searching for? PERCEPTION / CODES the state of beliefsTREND FORCES our stored memory of past experiences 5 TIM STOCK
  • 6. ANALYZING THE LANGUAGE THAT HAS CURRENCY PORTLANDIA MACRO TRENDS MICRO TRENDS “is it local?” PERCEPTION / CODESTREND FORCES our stored memory of past experiences 6 TIM STOCK
  • 7. MEASURING SIGNALS OVER TIME - GOOGLE TRENDS MACRO TRENDS MICRO TRENDS what are people searching for? PERCEPTION / CODESTREND FORCES 7 TIM STOCK
  • 8. MEASURING SIGNALS OVER TIME - GOOGLE TRENDS MACRO TRENDS charting longer term trends MICRO TRENDS what are people searching for? PERCEPTION / CODESTREND FORCES archived data / past patterns 8 TIM STOCK
  • 9. MEASURING SIGNALS OVER TIME - GOOGLE TRENDS MACRO TRENDS predictive analytics of likely patterns MICRO TRENDS search as behavioral indicator PERCEPTION / CODESTREND FORCES archived data / past patterns 9 TIM STOCK
  • 10. TRACKING DATA OVER TIME MACRO TRENDS long term implications MICRO TRENDS cultural expressions PERCEPTION / CODES perceptual triggersTREND FORCES data sources - quantitative studies 10 TIM STOCK
  • 11. TREND RESEARCH FIRMS - TNS MACRO TREND potential growth opportunities MICRO TRENDS analysis of consumer dynamics PERCEPTION / CODESTREND FORCES quantitative studies 11 TIM STOCK
  • 12. WEB INTELLIGENCE - RECORDED FUTURE future MACRO TRENDS future view of news patterns MICRO TRENDS media feeds PERCEPTION / CODESTREND FORCES aggregated archived news 12 TIM STOCK
  • 13. TREND TRACKING FIRMS - WGSN MACRO TRENDS MICRO TRENDS new products - new cultural phenomenon PERCEPTION / CODESTREND FORCES 13 TIM STOCK
  • 14. TREND TRACKING FIRMS - WGSN MACRO TRENDS MICRO TRENDS new products - new cultural phenomenon PERCEPTION / CODESTREND FORCES 14 TIM STOCK
  • 15. TREND TRACKING PUBLISHERS MACRO TRENDS emerging long term themes MICRO TRENDS new products - new cultural phenomenon PERCEPTION / CODESTREND FORCES 15 TIM STOCK
  • 16. CATEGORY ASSOCIATIONS TRACKING The top 10 drink menu trends for 2013 will be: 1. Onsite barrel-aged drinks 11. Food beer/pairings/beer dinners 2. Food-liquor/cocktail pairings 12. Salt (e.g. flavored, smoked, regional) 3. Culinary cocktails (e.g. savory, fresh 13. House-made lemonade/soft drinks/tonics ingredients) 14. Cask beer/ale 4. Micro-distilled/artisan liquor 15. Wine on tap/draft wine 5. Locally produced spirits 16. Organic cocktails 6. Locally sourced fruit/berries/produce 17. Cocktails on tap 7. Beer sommeliers/Cicerones 18. Craft beer 8. Regional signature cocktails 19. Signature cocktails 9. Beer-based cocktails 20. Shrubs 10. Locally produced beer MACRO TRENDS MICRO TRENDS new products - new cultural phenomenon PERCEPTION / CODESTREND FORCES 16 TIM STOCK
  • 17. PATTERNS IN LANGUAGE - GOOGLE NGRAM KEYWORD SEARCHES an n-gram model is a type of probabilistic model for predicting the next item in such a sequence. n-gram models are used in various areas of statistical natural language processing and genetic sequence analysis. MACRO TREND predictions based on dynamics MICRO TRENDS the emergence of language in corpus of texts PERCEPTION / CODES analyzing language to reveal signifiersTREND FORCES aggregated historical data 17 TIM STOCK
  • 18. PATTERNS IN LANGUAGE - GOOGLE NGRAM Google nGram MACRO TREND predictions based on dynamics MICRO TRENDS the emergence of language in corpus of texts PERCEPTION / CODES analyzing language to reveal signifiersTREND FORCES aggregated historical corpus of data 18 TIM STOCK
  • 19. ANALYZING DRUG CULTURE 1969 1981 MACRO TREND predictions based on cultural dynamics MICRO TRENDS the emergence of language in corpus of texts PERCEPTION / CODES (RITES OF PASSAGE)TREND FORCES (HIGHWAYS AS DISTRIBUTION) (COUNTER CULTURE) 19 TIM STOCK
  • 20. DRUG CULTURE AS EXPRESSED LANGUAGE 1965 1984 marijuana cocaine MACRO TREND predictions based on cultural dynamics MICRO TRENDS analysis of expressed language PERCEPTION / CODES (RITES OF PASSAGE)TREND FORCES (HIGHWAYS AS DISTRIBUTION) (COUNTER CULTURE) 20 TIM STOCK
  • 21. ANALYZING FOOD CULTURE 1955 2012 MACRO TREND predictions based on cultural dynamics MICRO TRENDS (tv dinners) (fresh bowls) PERCEPTION / CODES (convenient) (handmade)TREND FORCES (WARTIME TECHNOLOGY) (TRANSPARENCY OF PRODUCTION) 21 TIM STOCK
  • 22. ANALYZING FOOD CULTURE 1955 2012 FROZEN FRESH MACRO TREND predictions based on cultural dynamics MICRO TRENDS (tv dinners) (fresh bowls) PERCEPTION / CODES (convenient) (handmade)TREND FORCES (WARTIME TECHNOLOGY) (TRANSPARENCY OF PRODUCTION) 22 TIM STOCK
  • 23. EXAMINING THE LANGUAGE AS SIGNIFIER MACRO TREND MICRO TRENDS analysis of expressed language PERCEPTION / CODESTREND FORCES 23 TIM STOCK
  • 24. FOOD CULTURE AS EXPRESSED LANGUAGE 1955 2012 FROZEN FRESH fixed new standardization localization MACRO TREND predictions based on cultural dynamics MICRO TRENDS analysis of expressed language PERCEPTION / CODES (fixed) (standardized) (new) ) (localized)TREND FORCES (WARTIME TECHNOLOGY) (TRANSPARENCY OF PRODUCTION) 24 TIM STOCK
  • 25. FOOD CULTURE AS EXPRESSED LANGUAGE 1979 MACRO TREND predictions based on cultural dynamics MICRO TRENDS shifts in eating habits PERCEPTION / CODESTREND FORCES what data can we find to reveal this shift? 25 TIM STOCK
  • 26. YUPPIE AND BOBO CULTURE & 1984 2000 MACRO TREND predictions based on cultural dynamics MICRO TRENDS cultural kinship groups affirming perceptions PERCEPTION / CODES (badges) (guilt)TREND FORCES (9/11) (urbanism) 26 TIM STOCK
  • 27. YUPPIE CULTURE AS LANGUAGE AND BEHAVIOR & 1984 sushi cappuccino MACRO TREND predictions based on cultural dynamics MICRO TRENDS (sushi) (cappuccino) PERCEPTION / CODES (badge) (status) (fraternity)TREND FORCES 27 TIM STOCK
  • 28. YUPPIE CULTURE AS LANGUAGE AND BEHAVIOR & 2000 made in usa MACRO TREND predictions based on cultural dynamics MICRO TRENDS (made in usa) (local) PERCEPTION / CODES (guilt) (process) (perfection)TREND FORCES 28 TIM STOCK
  • 29. THE MEANING OF BREAKFAST 1962 2013 MACRO TREND predictions based on cultural dynamics MICRO TRENDS (instant breakfast) (florida’s natural) PERCEPTION / CODES (convenience) (reassurance)TREND FORCES (commoditization) (food science) (food scares) (localization) 29 TIM STOCK
  • 30. THE MEANING OF BREAKFAST unpacking the language of the package 1962 2013 INSTANT NATURAL UNIFORM QUALITY HOME SQUEEZED NATURAL TASTING NOT FROM CONCENTRATE MORE VITAMINS FLORIDA PREMIUM decoding these signifiers reveals trend themes MACRO TREND predictions based on cultural dynamics MICRO TRENDS (instant breakfast) (florida’s natural) PERCEPTION / CODES (convenience) (reassurance)TREND FORCES (commoditization) (food science) (food scares) (localization) 30 TIM STOCK
  • 31. THE MEANING OF BREAKFAST AS EXPRESSED LANGUAGE organic food 1975 1985 MACRO TREND predictions based on cultural dynamics MICRO TRENDS the emergence of language in corpus of text PERCEPTION / CODES the signifiers of shifting cultural meaningTREND FORCES (subsidies) (counter culture) (food scares) 31 TIM STOCK
  • 32. SIGNIFIERS EVOLVE AS MORE PEOPLE SHARE MEANINGwhat happens when organic “niche” becomes mainstream? the meaning is constantly evolving (what happens when big companies buy niche manufacturers?) badge natural safer healthy frugal ritual organic MACRO TRENDS MICRO TRENDS PERCEPTION / CODESTREND FORCES 32 TIM STOCK
  • 33. SOURCING AND ANALYZING EMERGENT SIGNIFIERS SIGNIFIERS LOCAL COFFEE HOUSES LOCAL GREEN MARKETS LOCAL TRANSPARENCY CRAFT ARTISAN PHYSICAL TREND THEMES MACRO TREND predictions based on cultural dynamics MICRO TRENDS new products - new cultural phenomenon PERCEPTION / CODES (artisan) (craft) (physical)TREND FORCES 33 TIM STOCK
  • 34. SOURCING AND ANALYZING EMERGENT SIGNIFIERS SIGNIFIERS GROWLERS MOLECULE WATER CAFE LOCAL TRANSPARENCY CRAFT ARTISAN PHYSICAL TREND THEMES MACRO TREND predictions based on cultural dynamics MICRO TRENDS new products - new cultural phenomenon PERCEPTION / CODES (artisan) (craft) (physical) (transparency)TREND FORCES 34 TIM STOCK
  • 35. STARBUCKS’ REDESIGN DECODED MACRO TRENDS developing a sustainable strategy MICRO TRENDS integrating cultural signifiers s into retail redesign PERCEPTION / CODES (transparency) (local)TREND FORCES 35 TIM STOCK
  • 36. STARBUCKS’ PRODUCT INNOVATION how can this work? STORY LOCAL TRANSPARENCY CRAFT ARTISAN PHYSICAL STARBUCKS RETAIL CODES STARBUCKS VERISIMO what’s the motivation? MACRO TRENDS developing a sustainable strategy MICRO TRENDS integrating these themes into product innovation PERCEPTION / CODES (physical) (craft)TREND FORCES 36 TIM STOCK
  • 37. THE MEANING OF BEVERAGE decode the what are the signifiers triggers? youth activating FIX what does the suggest? ch-OSA clinically proven hair skin nails Açaí, pomegranate list of claims MACRO TRENDS how sustainable is the language? MICRO TRENDS (youth activating) (clinically) (ch-OSA) (beauty) PERCEPTION / CODES (xxx) (xxx)TREND FORCES what forces are driving the cultural language? 37 TIM STOCK
  • 38. THE MEANING OF BEVERAGE SHARE YOUR SOURCED PRODUCTS decode the what are the signifiers triggers? MACRO TRENDS how sustainable is the language? MICRO TRENDS (xxx) (xxx) (xxx) (xxx) PERCEPTION / CODES (xxx) (xxx)TREND FORCES what forces are driving the cultural language? 38 TIM STOCK
  • 39. NEXT CLASS IN 2 WEEKSreadingscreate your own nGram to tell a trend storystart working on your product boardskeep feeding your Tumblr sites 39 TIM STOCK
  • 40. THANK YOU.stockt@newschool.edu 40 TIM STOCK