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[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)
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[2] Reading Signals & Patterns (Spring 2014)

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Lecture related to Analyzing Trends at Parsons the New School for Design.

Lecture related to Analyzing Trends at Parsons the New School for Design.

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  • 1. LECTURE ONE Reading Signals & Patterns Analyzing Trends | Spring 2014 TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 3
  • 2. signals what is a trend? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 4
  • 3. signals past future present patterns patterns trends are about movement what is moving/changing? by what force? TIM STOCK moving where? SPRING 2014 5
  • 4. signals what is forecasting? to predict (a future condition or occurrence); calculate in advance. TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 6
  • 5. homework: minority report TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 7
  • 6. signals The Future of homework: what trend forecasts did you find? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 8
  • 7. forecasting category scenarios what factors make this plausible? inplausible? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 9
  • 8. signals what methods would you use to get insights? the future forecast of retail what forces are shaping the retail today? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 10
  • 9. signals maps patterns stories the framework for analyzing and innovating on trends TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 11
  • 10. signals signals brand consumer innovation is a mating game we need to synchronize with cultural signals and conspire in future stories TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 12
  • 11. INNOVATION stories signals BRAND ARCHITECTURE from signal to story... synchronizing brands for purpose and sustainablity TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 13
  • 12. stories signals reading signals what will the response be? are there behavioral patterns? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 14
  • 13. what language can you find? signals what’s in your fridge? everyday signals learning to read the language and grammar of trends TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 15
  • 14. what language can you find? signals what is the taxonomy of your medicine cabinet? everyday signals learning to read the language and grammar of trends TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 16
  • 15. morning rituals: american psycho TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 17
  • 16. language signals past present future fashion signals what methods can we use to read what happens next? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 18
  • 17. language signals past present future fashion signals what methods can we use to read what happens next? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 19
  • 18. language signals past present future food signals what methods can we use to read what happens next? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 20
  • 19. signals “The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.” -Nate Silver TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 21
  • 20. signals forecasting the 2012 election how can we best predict how people will vote? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 22
  • 21. signals fads vs. trends what is the difference? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 23
  • 22. signals fads vs. trends what is the difference? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 24
  • 23. signals strong signals vs. weak signals distinguishing fads from trends TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 25
  • 24. signals the trend can live inside the fad decoding cronuts fad or trend? start by decoding the language. TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 26
  • 25. intelligence data signals past present future tracking signals /transformative research learning to read the actionableand grammar of trends tracking signals as language intelligence TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 27
  • 26. signals you can’t run a focus group on trends they miss how motivation is shaped in a networked world TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 28
  • 27. trend story where most research focuses signals motive what we miss existing hidden symbolic production the signals we track should reveal the whole consumer journey... TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 29
  • 28. signals technology shapes the grammar of trends the structure on how we learn and share about what we consume TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 30
  • 29. stories signals what are the cultural signals? how is the grammar of technology shaping consumption? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 31
  • 30. signals decode stories fashion week is not what it used to be designers are choosing to opt out of midtown tents TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 32
  • 31. signals decode stories retail is not what it used to be millennials are shopping for apparel brands less... why? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 33
  • 32. signals reflexive research expressive research we are expressive beings technology transforms this exponentially (research should keep up) TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 34
  • 33. signals we need to leverage expressive research the seemingly banal can be the most potent window into culture TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 35
  • 34. language culture PERCEPTIONS BEHAVIOR belief kinship signals the mechanics of consumer trends TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 36
  • 35. signals the codes of culture TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 37
  • 36. signals past future present patterns culture is the product TIM STOCK patterns what are the codes? SPRING 2014 38
  • 37. 1964 signals past future present patterns culture is the product why did the mini skirt catch on? TIM STOCK patterns what are the codes? SPRING 2014 39
  • 38. 1960 signals past future present patterns culture is the product what do we trust to feed our babies? TIM STOCK patterns what are the codes? SPRING 2014 40
  • 39. 2008 signals past future present patterns culture is the product why are city people dressing and eating like the Amish? TIM STOCK patterns what are the codes? SPRING 2014 41
  • 40. signals past future present patterns culture is the product what have men stopped shaving? TIM STOCK patterns what are the codes? SPRING 2014 42
  • 41. signals past future present patterns culture is the product what is driving a renewed interestin vinyl records? TIM STOCK patterns what are the codes? SPRING 2014 43
  • 42. signals past future present patterns culture is the product what is driving people to detoxing? TIM STOCK patterns what are the codes? SPRING 2014 44
  • 43. signals past future present patterns culture is the product why are people seeing their pets like wild animals? TIM STOCK patterns what are the codes? SPRING 2014 45
  • 44. signals past future present patterns culture is the product how do we sell liqour in today? TIM STOCK patterns what are the codes? SPRING 2014 46
  • 45. signals past future present patterns culture is the product how do you sell a luxury car? TIM STOCK patterns what are the codes? SPRING 2014 47
  • 46. signals past future present patterns culture is the product Mexican Coca Cola has a new cult following in the US TIM STOCK patterns what are the codes? SPRING 2014 48
  • 47. signals past future present patterns patterns culture is the product organic food dominates grocery shelves today - how did we get to this point? is it sustainable? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 49
  • 48. signals past future present patterns patterns brand architecture Coca-Cola is testing “sustainable” products such are Coca-Cola Life TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 50
  • 49. signals past future present patterns patterns brand architecture Coca-Cola bought Honest Tea in 2011 TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 51
  • 50. signals signals brand consumer innovation is a mating game we need to synchronize with cultural signals and conspire in future stories TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 52
  • 51. signals the best brands don’t advertise (why?) Keihl’s is a story in grassroots cultural innovation TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 53
  • 52. signals the best brands don’t advertise Huy Fong Food’s Sriracha Sauce TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 54
  • 53. source: Fast Company signals extreme groups show us where language/ behavior is going next TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 55
  • 54. FISSION-FUSION c the nature of the main parent group can fracture into smaller stable subgroups to adapt to environmental or social circumstances. A a e d b signals social groups are kinetic the true power of social groups is in how language is shared, cultivated and results in new cultural phenomenon. TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 56
  • 55. signals signals migrate in small networks structuring the data via culture mapping reveals linguistic signatures and patterns TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 57
  • 56. signals Just for Kicks culture networks create new categories sneaker culture is interwoven into urban subcultures... the cleaning of the shoes had its own culture... TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 58
  • 57. signals Just for Kicks culture networks create new categories sneaker culture is interwoven into urban subcultures... the cleaning of the shoes had its own culture... TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 59
  • 58. signals the language of small networks: is it local? the language cultivated in these small networks works as kinship reinforcement as it radiates out through society TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 60
  • 59. Perception /Culture Brand Attributes signals cultures tune in ingredients when we think of building new features or adding to the brand, we should ask where that meaning resonates most strongly and how. TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 61
  • 60. signals case study: miller lite developing a clear brand narrative in the midst of category decline and and a brand merger TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 62
  • 61. signals american beer advertising was stuck in college TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 63
  • 62. POP Mainstream cultural archetype cultural archetype cultural archetype new social space of mixed company cultural archetype SOBER SENSORIAL signals cultural archetype the realm of the craft brew drinker cultural archetype vintage cues SUB CULTURE Sub Culture finding cultural signals to inform the brand? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 64
  • 63. signals sourcing cultures to reveal brand signifiers that reveal emergent trends TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 65
  • 64. signals “The limits of my language are the limits of my world.” [Ludwig Wittgenstein] TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 66
  • 65. signals language is the data of the new economy understanding how language evolves in context is critical to transformative consumer intelligence TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 67
  • 66. signals social media is a firehose of language knowing how to read these signals as anthropology TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 68
  • 67. signals using listening tools to track these signals TIM STOCK Crimson Hexagon Sysomos SPRING 2014 69
  • 68. signals closed data sources TIM STOCK Google Ngram SPRING 2014 70
  • 69. signals 30” x 40” foam board Critique Assignment product analysis board TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 71
  • 70. 20 SOURCING 20 UNPACKING THE LANGUAGE/SIGNIFIERS 20 signals How well sourced is your product? Is it interesting? Is the product current/timely related to emerging cultural phenomenon. How well have you taken inventory of the key signifiers of the product? Have you missed any important language? CONTEXTUAL RESEARCH How well have you researched the context of the language/signifiers you have uncovered? Have you brought insight to the meaning behind the language you have uncovered? 20 CODE/THEME IDENTIFICATION 20 CLARITY OF PRESENTATION What codes can you uncover from all the language you have found? How well have you grouped the language to reveal certain codes that indicate a particular perception of consumption? What is the behavioral trigger the product's language is conveying? How well have you communicated your research analysis. Is it clear and visual? Does the board remain relevant with or without a voiceover? grading rubric product analysis board TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 72
  • 71. signals what is the language? what are the codes? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 73
  • 72. signals what is the language? what are the codes? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 74
  • 73. signals what is the language? what are the codes? TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 75
  • 74. session recap •Trends are about shifts in perception and behavior •Culture drives these movements •Research methods must reveal language, behavior and emerging codes TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 76
  • 75. packaging inspiration on Pinterest TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 77
  • 76. next week Product Language Workshop this is the setup to your first group assignment (be there) bring your laptop source a packaged product and bring it to class (you may bring a few if you need to narrow it down) TIM STOCK SPRING 2014 78

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