IAMAI - AML Mobile VAS Report - Launch Presentation - 2011-07
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

IAMAI - AML Mobile VAS Report - Launch Presentation - 2011-07

on

  • 14,111 views

Analysys Mason in collaboration with IAMAI has developed a Vision Document on Mobile VAS industry in India, titled “Evolution of Mobile VAS in India”. ...

Analysys Mason in collaboration with IAMAI has developed a Vision Document on Mobile VAS industry in India, titled “Evolution of Mobile VAS in India”.

This report was released on 27th July, 2011 in New Delhi at a full day conference hosted jointly by Analysys Mason and IAMAI. The key findings of the report were released by Shri Sachin Pilot, Minister of State, Communications and IT, Government of India. Commenting upon the report, Shri Sachin Pilot said “The mobile value added services is miniscule at present in comparison to its potential and the government would make appropriate efforts to put the industry on an equitable and sustainable growth path.” However, in order for the industry to be a success, he suggested that service providers should provide locally relevant services in local languages.

The inaugural session comprised of renowned industry delegates: Rajan Anandan, Managing Director, Google India; Dr. Kiran Karnik, Former President, NASSCOM; Hitesh Oberoi, Chairman, IAMAI & Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer, Infoedge India Ltd; Sandeep Sawhney, Chief Product & Innovation Officer, Aircel; D.P Venkatesh, CEO, mPortal.

Kunal Bajaj, Partner & Director India, Analysys Mason gave a presentation on the launch of this report and stated: “Carriers are under tremendous pressure from competition and declining ARPUs, which have stunted revenue growth. Recent trends in the sector indicate that now is the right time for them to increase their focus on the VAS space to find new opportunities for differentiation and earnings.”

Besides the inaugural session, the conference comprised of four panel discussions on current themes in the Mobile VAS industry: Mobile Entertainment, Livelihood Enhancement Services, Mobile Applications and Mobile Money. Each of these panels comprised of speakers (CXO level) from a cross-section representation of the industry and included leading carriers, technology platforms, mobile value added services providers and the government. The conference saw a turn out of over 200 leading industry delegates.

Statistics

Views

Total Views
14,111
Views on SlideShare
13,411
Embed Views
700

Actions

Likes
12
Downloads
1,391
Comments
2

9 Embeds 700

http://momo-ahmedabad.in 349
http://techcircle.vccircle.com 297
http://www.linkedin.com 20
http://www.momo-ahmedabad.in 18
http://localhost 8
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com 3
http://www.slideshare.net 2
http://us-w1.rockmelt.com 2
https://pramati.qontext.com 1
More...

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel

12 of 2

  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
  • Mobile Marketing Companies

    http://mobilemarketingmagazine.net/

    Mobile Marketing Companies
    Mobile Marketing Strategies and Activities
    Rutgers Mini MBA Mobile Marketing Program
    Grow your Business by SMS Advertising!
    SMS Marketing in 2011
    Mobile Marketing in 2011
    Mobile Marketing Association
    Text Message Marketing 101
    Mobile Marketing for Business!
    Product Promotion with Mobile Marketing
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
  • I like the slides. Very good and informative.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    IAMAI - AML Mobile VAS Report - Launch Presentation - 2011-07 IAMAI - AML Mobile VAS Report - Launch Presentation - 2011-07 Presentation Transcript

    • Evolution of Mobile VAS in IndiaImperatives for Exponential GrowthLaunch Presentation July 2011 | A joint report by IAMAI and Analysys Mason
    • 2List of Sponsors Platinum Sponsor Gold Sponsors
    • 3Peer Review / Acknowledgements• Peer Review Steering Committee We would like to thank the peer review steering committee for dedicating their time to this initiative and helping to identify the key issues to focus on. Producing this report would not have been possible without their inputs and feedback  Parag Kar VP, Government Affairs, Qualcomm (India & South Asia)  PG Ponnapa Chief Executive Officer- India/Asia Pac, MPortal  Sanjay K Goyal Founder & CEO, ACL Wireless  Dr. Subho Ray President, IAMAI  Vijay Shekhar Sharma Chairman & MD, One97• Acknowledgements We would like to acknowledge the following people for their extraordinary contributions  Anand Virani Business Development Lead, Services Ecosystem, Qualcomm (India & South Asia)  Chirag Jain Vice President - Marketing & Business Development, Webaroo  Mohit Narain Business Director, ACL Wireless  Rakesh Mahajan Independent Consultant
    • Global Experience 4 Global experience suggests that India has an opportunity to be a leading ‘mobile first’ market for data Share of Non-Voice Revenues1 by Carrier, Country (%) 1 Messaging Driven Market 60% • Messaging dominant markets with high base of non-voice revenues • Philippines 45% High Growth post 3G 2 • Markets that have witnessed an 30% average change3 of ~4% per year China: ~4.8%, since 3G 28.2% • Malaysia, Brazil Malaysia: 21.8%, 15% 64.1% Moderate Growth post 3G Brazil: ~16%, 3 S Africa: 8.2%, 45.0% • Markets that have witnessed an 0% 8.7% average change3 of ~2.5% per year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 since 3G 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 • Large potential for long term growth China 4 Unicom, China Vivo, Brazil Globe, Philippines due to the lack of alternate access Smart, Philippines 5 Maxis, Malaysia AIS, Thailand mechanism Telkomsel, Indonesia MTN, South Africa Vodacom, South Africa 6 • S Africa, Indonesia, Thailand & China Launch of 3G Services Legend2: Country: PC Penetration, Internet Penetration Note: 1. Non-voice revenues includes revenue from messaging, data usage and other non voice related activities; 2. PC penetration figures are for 2005 and Internet Penetration figures are as of 2006; 3. Average yearly change in share of non voice revenues (within total revenues); 4. China Unicom was considered rather than China Mobile, because the latter launched 3G with TD-SCDMA while the former did so with W-CDMA / HSPA; 5. Smart launched 3G services in Q1’06; 6. Vodacom launched 3G services in Q4’04 Source: Analysys Mason, © Wireless Intelligence 2011, Telegeography
    • Mobile VAS Overview 5 Structural enablers in the market also indicate that the MVAS industry is at an inflexion point Share of GPRS Enabled Handsets DEVICE Indian Music Industry Revenues CONTENT in Total Handset Sales by Component (2010) • The device landscape in India • Wider variety of VAS content has changed significantly with 10% Others and services available to 65% the entry of local Indian Digital Indian user today; carriers handset OEMs Music have become significant 41% distribution partners 51% • Data enabled devices (both GPRS and 3G) now constitute • App stores with inventories Physical ~70-80% of the installed into the millions across Music handset base 49% multiple categories and genres are being launched by 2009 2010 carriers, handset OEMs and third party stores ACCESS Active Mobile Data (GPRS) DEMAND Data (2.5G) Plan Tariffs (INR)1 • Mobile data is now widely Users in India • The complete ecosystem accessible with carriers 75 across devices, access and launching 3G services content is resulting in 450 growing demand from • Low sachet pricing and pay- consumers for mobile per-site are encouraging 30 internet services 90 penetration of data services adoption 1 2008 2010 CY2008 CY2010 Note: 1. Estimated price for entry level plan with unlimited monthly data usage Source: Analysys Mason, FICCI Frames 2010, Company Reports
    • Mobile VAS: Challenges 6 However, key market and policy enablers in the on-deck, off-deck and SMS markets will be imperative for growth Key Issues First Order Impact Second Order Impact Challenges for On-Deck VAS1 • Market inefficiencies resulting in Affordability perceived scalability constraints for 1. Carrier control VAS providers Price points for VAS remains flat, due to lack of competitive offerings 2. MIS reconciliation • Focus of platform providers shifting to international markets to drive higher 3. Dispute redressal revenue from their offerings Ecosystem Evolution • Perceived scalability and profitability Lack of innovative product and Challenges for Off-Deck VAS2 service offerings, with VAS providers constraints for D2C models, due to 1. Lack of alternate payment channels high % of billing share, and lack of focusing on mass market services alternate billing models 2. No control over end user pricing 3. Skewed revenue shares when • Companies focusing on basic mass Consumer Welfare market offerings which can drive using carrier billing Lack of consumer interest protection, volumes in alignment with carriers with no clarity on data charges and pricing for SMS/calls to short codes Challenges for SMS adoption • Addressable base of SMS limited, with only 47% penetration Investments for Scalability 1. Limited understanding of English / Roman characters • Mobile marketing / advertising on Limited investment in this sector due SMS also constrained to perceived risk around carrier control on revenue shares and billing Note: 1. On-Deck VAS: Value added services which are available through the carrier; 2. Off-Deck VAS: Value added services which are available through D2C models Source: Analysys Mason, Industry Inputs
    • Mobile VAS: Recommended Solutions 7 Global experience suggests that a policy framework without licensing and market determined revenue shares is the right way forward 1. Policy Framework without 2. Licensing with Market Determined 3. Licensing with Policy Licensing Revenue Share Determined Revenue Share • A focused licensing regime needs to • No separate VAS license needs to • A broader licensing framework, which Position be in place for VAS, including be issued – but a policy framework leaves revenue shares to be driven by regulation recommending minimum to support VAS providers is required market forces revenue shares • Licensing will ensure that the VAS • Revenue shares should be left to industry gets support on critical issues • Revenue shares remain a critical market forces, as that will help drive such as MIS reconciliation and dispute element in the mobile VAS ecosystem innovation redressal and are currently hampering growth Rationale • Creating licenses will increase the • Revenue share is a commercial and investment in the industry because agreement between entities and cannot of their low levels costs of the MVASPs and innovation will suffer as smaller VAS providers be mandated by the Government • Once revenue shares are regulated, will not be able to bear the attendant • Once off-deck services gain traction, other operational issues such as MIS costs of a license market forces will drive revenue shares would also get addressed without intervention • Formation of a self governed industry forum to formally represent • A VAS licensing framework that will • A VAS license framework that will Potential Solution the VASPs regulate MIS, dispute redressal and regulate revenue shares, and • Formation of a premium number other issues, but will leave revenue recommend measures for policy which will govern the shares to market participants implementation and monitoring operation of short codes Source: Analysys Mason, Industry Inputs
    • Mobile VAS: On-Deck VAS Providers (Recommended Solutions) 8 For on-deck, an industry self-governing board that can act as a formal forum for participants in the MVAS ecosystem can be beneficial On-Deck VAS Formation of an Industry Association for Mobile VAS Providers in India COAI / IAMAI AUSPI Formation of an 1. Self governing VAS forum MVAS Authority 2. Board can draft guidelines for MIS MVAS Industry reconciliation between mobile VAS Governing Board providers and carriers 3. Act as a forum for grievance redressal and issue directives for action Members From MVAS Services Stakeholders Across Handset 4. The functioning / structure of the board Providers the Value Chain Manufacturers can be modeled after the ASCI1 Technology Carriers Platform Providers Note: 1. ASCI stands for Advertising Standards Council of India Source: Analysys Mason
    • Mobile VAS: Off-Deck Providers (Challenges) 9 However, billing remains a major issue in addition to carrier control over end user pricing of off-deck services Off-Deck VAS End user Price for Voice and Non-Voice ARPU vs. Price of Popular Game in Different Offerings in India (2007 & 2010)1 Countries (INR)2 INR 30 30 INR 30 2500 (2%) 2171.7 2000 (3%) 20 1507.5 1500 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 1000 (17%) 10 722.3 (10%) 500 444.6 (33%) 3 3 3 161.6 119.7 54.0 44.6 42.8 44.6 0 0 Voice Premium Mono Tone Poly Tone Wallpaper CRBT India USA UK China Malaysia (10 mins SMS Download Subscription call)1 2007 2010 ARPU Game Price Note: 1. For a 10 minute call; 2007 rate assumed at INR 1 per minute, 2009 rate at INR 0.5 paisa per second, Cost of per transaction for SMS, monotone, polytone and wallpaper, monthly subscription for CRBT; 2. India (Paid game on Indiatimes), USA, UK, China (Paid game on Apple Apps Store), Malaysia (GamesUnlimited; Maxis games site); Most games in China are cracked and available for free. Number in parenthesis indicates the cost of game as a % of ARPU Source: Analysys Mason, Wireless Intelligence, Industry Inputs
    • Mobile VAS: Off-Deck Providers (Recommended Solutions) 10 A policy framework (without licensing) that will mandate a premium number policy can potentially address the challenges for off-deck billing Off-Deck VAS Proposed Framework for Premium Number Policy Central Short Code (CSC) Agency Created & Mandated by TRAI • Short codes Short Code Operational allocated and • CSC agency to be set up as a maintained by Across Carriers licensed entity under TRAI this central agency • Licensing of CSC agency allows it to • Pan India access enter into agreements with other Carrier 1 Carrier 2 …. Carrier n across all licensed entities carriers • Mandated • TRAI to mandate a ‘Rate Card’ under turnaround time of activation IUC regulations, which includes billing, Host carrier pays User Billed VASP; Keeps share across carriers origination and termination charges for by carrier to cover carriers whose customer originates for service interconnection and service access request other costs • This policy will guarantee pan India access across all carriers VAS Provider • VAS Provider Offers Services to Users Across Carriers Service Flow Revenue Flow Source: Analysys Mason
    • Mobile VAS: SMS (Challenges and Recommendation) 11 Mandating the incorporation of a standards based local language solution on all handsets can help drive SMS penetration SMS Penetration Enablers: Local Language Support on Handsets SMS Penetration, 2010 100% 100% • Mandate standardization of character set of local 80% language fonts 75%  Partnering with an organization like CEWiT and others 47% to get key standards in place for: 50% – Indic 7-bit encoding (improves text payload in a SMS) 25% – Simplified Indic keypad design (to make user adoption easy) 0% – Memory efficient font libraries (critical for distribution Philippines China India and field support) • Mandate incorporation of local language • Apart from lower SMS pricing in Philippines and China than standards on all handsets sold in India in India, the ability to message in local language is the key  Partnering with top handset vendors to motivate driver for high SMS penetration adoption of new standards by mid-2012 and launch of • Different handset OEMs use their own proprietary standards an industry-wide education campaign for Indian language text, creating interoperability issues Source: Analysys Mason, Centre of Excellence in Wireless Technology (CEWiT) India Reports
    • Mobile VAS Trends 12 In the future, emerging areas of m-commerce & advertising, and changes in the VAS value chain will modify the way services are consumed • Backward integration across • Easy integration of VAS products on • Carriers offering ad-based services the three segments e.g. to the carrier SDP / network for secondary revenue streams TPE moving into content • With initiatives like START/STOP, • Partnering with payment companies aggregation focus is on enabling users to for additional revenue from mobile • UGC gaining adoption experiment with multiple products shopping and remittance Content Repurposing / ISV4 WAP Carrier Billing Carriers SMS1 MPG2 Voice Online Ad3 Content Content Product/ Developer Aggregators Apps Retail Cash/ CC/ DC Handset OEM Online Carrier UGC Device 3rd Party VASP Integration WAP SMS Voice MPG2 / Ad3 Technology Platform Enablers Managed Services / Network OEM /VAS SI Advertising/Profiling/Relevance Platform Mobile Commerce Platform • Handset OEM is offering VAS under its • Carriers deploying • M-commerce solution • Network OEMs are profiling / relevance provider with one or brand on multiple sales providing technology platform for better more capabilities such channel: online, retail platform for carriers, e.g. targeting as mobile payment, and mobile Network OEM CRBT • D2C players using • Ad-networks forming mobile banking, money platform integration in dedicated sales force to transfer and mobile carrier network alternate payment shopping sell branded inventory channels Note: 1. STK embedded content is included in SMS; 2. Mobile Payment Gateway; 3. Ad based revenues; 4. Independent Software Vendor Source: Analysys Mason, Industry Inputs
    • Themes Introduction 13 Based on these structural changes and market trends, we have identified nine themes which will have a significant role in shaping MVAS in India Category Current Situation Key Trends Category Themes • UID accepted as KYC will increase share of G2C; carriers • Current scalable models use prepaid cards, and not 1 • Commerce pushing financial inclusion also a key driver (banking, mobile; pilots by carriers, banks, D2C domestic remittances) • Entertainment • Services around music and gaming has seen early • New products such as streaming music, full song download 2 Services adoption among mid ARPU segment and mobile games • Multiple pilots, with few scalable models (e.g. RML, • Utility apps and affordable feature-phones to drive adoption 3 • Utility Services IKSL), Location based services of productivity and livelihood enhancement services Consumer VAS • Emergence of new monetization models based on micro • Carrier promoted SNCs (e.g. AirtelFrenz) 4 • Community Services transactions, content sales (e.g. Rocketalk) with carrier aggregating audience on an ad monetization model marketing support, and increased off-deck usage • Limited services on EDGE with very poor user • Launch of 3G services by 2011 by all major carriers, with a 5 • Mobile Video experience strong video services portfolio (e.g. mobile TV, video calling) • Emergence of affordable android based phones, app store • Device Apps and App • Carrier app stores dominate; D2C app stores facing 6 push by handset OEMs, launch of 3G, utility apps (e.g. Stores issues of billing as credit card penetration is low railway booking) • Among all the network services such as CRBT, CMS, • CRBT has reached a mature level of adoption, while few Network 7 • Network Services Roaming, Recharging, Location Enablement, CRBT network services such as voice mail is limited by cultural and VAS contributes significant share to total MVAS market price points • 3G and better device form factors expected to enhance • SMS / display ads used for lead generation and 8 • Mobile Ad / Marketing effectiveness of display advertising and help ecosystem digital content sale; poor user experience Enterprise growth VAS • Emergence of enterprise mobility providers with vertical • Enterprise messaging solutions (e.g. Valuefirst) , 9 • Enterprise Solutions specific, carrier / software agnostic middleware solutions Sales force management (e.g. Mobien) Source: Analysys Mason
    • Mobile Data 14 There appears to be a latent demand for connectivity in markets with low PC / internet base as India, which gets fulfilled by mobile internet Trend of Non-Voice Revenue and Mix • While traditionally, data access has (Messaging vs. Data and Others) remained a small piece of the overall % of Non MVAS pie, recent trends suggest that – Voice Revenue crucial success factors for data access are 30.4% 33.6% 12.1% 19.4% 28.0% 30.0% 14.2% 23.4% now falling in place 10% 12% 44% 37% • Data growth will be dominated by 56% 35% smartphone and dongle / CCD users, but 62% 52% 76% 91% emerging applications / services indicate that data usage can be driven on feature 63% phones as well 53% 56% 38% 44% 37%  Social networking has exploded as a service 24% 9% in India, and carriers and handset OEMs are Q1 2009 Q3 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2010 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2009 Q2 2010 increasingly promoting SNC applications on Maxis Vivo Telekomsel1 Vodacom their networks / devices Data Messaging Others Note: 1. For Telekomsel – some share of other VAS included within data Source: Analysys Mason, Industry Inputs
    • App Store 15 It appears that a scalable model for app stores in India would be carrier app stores in partnership with OEM / OS companies Three Kinds of App Store Current Mapping of App stores and CSF1 • Revenue • High rev share • Carriers have a strong hold in share is less • Provides • Provides high Developer Carrier the value chain of mobile • No developer continuous revenue share Community forum, except support to to developers applications. They provide App Store Critical Success Factors seamless billing and multiple Airtel developers business model • Better profiling • Profiling based User of its on handset • Better user App Store Experience / subscriber model • OEM / OS with their better • Poor user • Better user interface Relevance OEM / OS relationship with developers interface interface App Store provide rich portfolio of mobile applications • Seamless • Unable to • Unable to billing implement implement Monetization / • Ability to single click single click Billing implement checkout and checkout and • Third party app stores such as subscription subscription subscription model plan plan Third Party by Getjar have the lowest share App Store today of overall revenues in the apps market in India Carrier OEM / OS Third Party App Stores Favourability of CSF1: High Medium Low Note: 1. CSF stands for Critical Success Factors Source: Analysys Mason, Industry Inputs
    • Mobile Community Services 16 Emerging services within mobile VAS also include social networking, instant messaging and microblogging Classification of Mobile Community Services Business Models for Mobile Community based on Primary Service Services Primary Mobile Extension of Online Community Services Description Key Service Providers Service • These communities are feature rich platforms that allows a wide range of activities including sharing of • Includes sharing of text, photos and videos in addition to playing games Social multimedia content Networking along with posting • Broadband connection and a wide screen is required Community status messages to for taking advantage of the features available a group of friends • Mobile version, usually an application, is a strip down version in terms of features and allowed activities • Includes real time Instant Custom Built for Mobile (Mobile Only Services) P2P communication Messaging over mobile internet • These communities have mobile as the primary access channel and the platforms are highly optimized for mobile usage • Features offered through these communities are • Includes sharing of customized to work on slow 2G data channel, as well Micro- status messages blogging as other bearer channels only • The primary target users are ‘mobile first’ data users Source: Analysys Mason, Industry Inputs
    • Utility Services 17 Livelihood enhancement services, especially in rural areas, will play a key role in the development of this sector Case Use Case of Utility Services Study Description User base Pricing ~ 0.3 mn farmers • Alerts related to crop price, have subscribed to • Price: INR 175 RML • Provides RML (Q1 2010) (USD 3.8) for 3 weather updates agricultural and Information So far, the service months; INR 75 • Stocks and news alerts commodity pricing Access to Alert has reached more (USD ) per information service Information • Location based services and Services via SMS than 1 mn farmers month by Idea maps across 15K villages Cellular (Nov 2010) • Push email • Subscription • Voice based rural Utility Services Behtar fee: INR 2 for 1 information services Zindagi Launched in March day and INR 30 on livestock, mandi • Mobile education, tutorials for Mobile 2011 for 30 days and Access to English in multiple language prices, fishery INR 1 per health advisory and others Opportunity • Job listings on mobile minute • Connects teachers More than 25,000 LifeLines – in rural areas with academic query- • Transaction • Health support on mobile, Education education experts answer sets have charge of INR 5 including regular health tips whom they can Mobile been facilitated (USD 0.1) per • Mobile governance services consult on under this service in call Access to such as tracking passport Education educational queries 2010 Infrastructure application, details of utility via IVR payments • Provides financial Over 180,000 Eko • Financial inclusions via mobile services to the un- customers across and mobile ticketing Financial banked population Delhi-NCR and • Free in urban as well as Bihar-Jharkhand till Inclusion rural areas October 2010 Source: Analysys Mason, Industry Inputs
    • Mobile Commerce 18 M-Commerce will be another critical growth driver with carriers and D2C providers experimenting with multiple models Banking Domestic Remittance • Mobile banking reduces the transaction cost for banks and Inter-state Remittance (2009) • Under the current regulations, provides a convenient channel for account holders Domestic Remittance Size mobile enablement is possible ~USD 12 bn (Migrants) only for domestic remittance • Mobile will add relatively higher value for serving the needs of the un-banked segment for banking and remittance Via Post Office ~USD 1.8 bn1 • BC based remittance will form the dominant portion, driven • BC based banking is expected to be popular amongst the un- Via ‘Friends & Family’ ~USD 10.2 bn by urban to rural channels. banked segment Informal (non-migrant) ~USD 13 bn Users will shift to mobile • However, given low deposits this does not translate into a remittance for convenience Average Annual Transaction and cost significant market opportunity Value per Worker ~USD 150 Payments G2C Payouts • Under the current regulations, there are two models for payment • BC accounts opened with UIDs MGNREGA Project FY-09 FY-101 using mobile: linked payment instruments and stored wallets will enable the unbanked model population to receive benefits Districts covered 615 619 from government • The linked payment model has witnessed some traction for utility Total Issued Job Cards (mn) 100 109 bill payments and some small value shopping • Government gives a lot of cash • The stored wallets model is relatively new, and has the potential benefits like old age pension, Number of to gain traction for small ticket items and eventually as an households 45 43 disability pension, widows benefited (mn) alternative to credit cards for digital payment pension and MGNREGA payment Budget outlay • However, regulations do not allow cash out, which can potentially 6.5 8.5 (USD bn) slow adoption as users are reluctant to lock in cash Source: Analysys Mason, FICCI Frames 2010, Company Reports
    • Forecasts: MVAS Industry 19 With the above market and policy initiatives, MVAS revenues is expected to account for as much as 51% of incremental industry revenues in 2015 Mobile VAS Market Potential (INR bn) & Its • Indian MVAS industry will reach contribution Share of Telecom Revenue levels seen in other emerging markets such as 31% 31% Malaysia and China 27% 671 19 • Data access will be the biggest revenue driver 603 37 22% 14 35 based on handset based access and CCD / 18% 480 219 dongles 16% 9 34 202 368 6 34 182 34 • CRBT will decline in revenue contribution due to 291 28 4 32 123 148 poor per unit economics for carriers and end 213 159 23 2 28 user affordability 132 81 19 96 16 62 201 215 13 48 58 88 150 • SMS penetration is expected to stabilize at the 25 49 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 current levels due to consumer behaviour and literacy issues unless local language can be Mobile Internet (Handset) Dongles / CCD Data Access IVR Messaging introduced CRBT Others1 Share of MVAS Note: 1. Others include m-commerce and CMS Source: Analysys Mason, Industry Inputs
    • Forecasts: MVAS Industry – Data Users 20 This growth is driven primarily by a forecasted 534 mn data users in 2015 across 2.5G, 3G and 4G, contributing 54% of total mobile VAS revenue Data Users (mn) • Of an estimated active base of 1.1 bn subscribers in 2015, 154 mn subscribers are expected to access data on 2.5G and 314 mn 534 subscribers on 3G 66 • Adoption of mobile handset data will continue to 420 grow, with reduction in price per MB for HSPA 48 data, increasing penetration of feature-phones and smartphones, as well as availability of 303 content and applications 28 • User base of 22 mn is expected on 3G handsets 201 468 in 2011, contributing a data ARPU of INR 133 in 18 372 2011 going down to INR 49 in 2015, with access 137 12 275 accounting for a major share of the revenues 83 7 125 183 • EVDO dongles are expected to dominate the 76 mobile broadband access market from PCs, as they provide relatively better capacity and cost 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 per MB than HSPA Handset Data Users Dongles & CCDs • 4G / LTE dongle and CCD base is expected to reach 21 mn by 2015 Source: Analysys Mason, Industry Inputs
    • 21 To access the report, please visit: www.iamai.in www.analysysmason.com/india www.slideshare.net/analysysmasonwww.iamai.in www.amalysysmason.com