Statistical analysis process- dr. a.amsavel

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Statistical analysis process- dr. a.amsavel

  1. 1. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: PROBLEM SOLVING TOOL Dr. A. Amsavel
  2. 2. Introduction <ul><li>Statistics </li></ul><ul><li>Problem solving tool </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Types of Charts </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Process capability </li></ul>
  3. 3. What is Statistics <ul><li>Statistics is a science, which deals with the method of collecting, classifying, presenting (plots, charts, diagram or etc.), comparing and interpreting numerical data to throw some light on any sphere of inquiry. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Importance of measurement <ul><li>Anything measured improves </li></ul><ul><li>Anything measured and recorded improves more </li></ul><ul><li>Anything measured, recorded and monitored improves most. </li></ul>
  5. 5. Statistical analysis is problem solving tool
  6. 6. Data and method We have so much data, align to the required form. Apply statistical tools to turn data into information. Process is done for analysis and interpretation Unprocessed data does not help in decision making It helps in processing the raw data It is often in raw state It is operational technique It is quantitative STATISTICS AS METHOD STATISTICS AS DATA
  7. 7. SPC: <ul><li>What causes defects? </li></ul><ul><li>How are defective made in the first place? </li></ul><ul><li>Can we make okay? </li></ul><ul><li>Are we making it okay? </li></ul>
  8. 8. Why we need Statistical analysis? <ul><li>General causes of troubles / problems arises from wrong knowledge and or in-correct operation. </li></ul><ul><li>To discern we have to launch fact-finding process. </li></ul><ul><li>How to eliminate the problem or waste? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quantify </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Eliminate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Prevent it re-occurrence </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM <ul><li>Achieve continues / continual improvement </li></ul><ul><li>Achieve high quality and low cost by eliminating waste in all the work and work process </li></ul><ul><li>By reducing the problems and variation in the process and stabilizing it. </li></ul>
  10. 10. TYPE OF TOOLS <ul><li>Run chart </li></ul><ul><li>Pareto chart </li></ul><ul><li>Flow chart </li></ul><ul><li>Fish bone / cause and effect diagram </li></ul><ul><li>Histograms </li></ul><ul><li>Control chart </li></ul><ul><li>Process capability, etc. </li></ul>
  11. 11. RUN CHART <ul><li>A Run chart shows what happens over a time (period) </li></ul><ul><li>Visualize the unexpected shift, trend, pattern </li></ul><ul><li>Plot variable vs. time / sequence </li></ul><ul><li>Choose critical elements (key variable) in the process </li></ul><ul><li>Collect the data </li></ul><ul><li>Plot a graph: Time or sequence in X axis and variable in Y axis. </li></ul>
  12. 12. RUN CHART
  13. 13. RUN CHART
  14. 14. RUN CHART <ul><li>To monitor process performance. </li></ul><ul><li>% Recovery of solvent Vs Batch / Time </li></ul><ul><li>In determining when a change to a process might have occurred. </li></ul>
  15. 15. RUN CHART <ul><li>Information /recording: </li></ul><ul><li>What is being measured, when it was measured and other information </li></ul><ul><li>Update the chart frequently </li></ul><ul><li>To indicate quality and productivity of an important process </li></ul><ul><li>Utilize: </li></ul><ul><li>Monitor the on-going performance </li></ul><ul><li>Monitor the performance of process over time / sequence to detect trends, shift or cycle. </li></ul><ul><li>Investigate the reason and eliminate. </li></ul>
  16. 16. Pareto principle <ul><li>The Pareto principle (also known as the 80-20 rule ) states that, for many events, 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes. Business management thinker Joseph M. Juran suggested the principle and named it after Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto , who observed that 80% of income in Italy went to 20% of the population. </li></ul><ul><li>80% of problems usually stem from 20% of the causes. </li></ul>
  17. 17. PARETO CHART <ul><li>This is a simple bar graph ranking in order of importance the causes, Sources, types or reasons for problems / opportunities. </li></ul><ul><li>It helps to identity the problems that affect greatest potential for improvement. </li></ul><ul><li>Choose the unit of measures and critical elements </li></ul><ul><li>Collect data for the problems </li></ul><ul><li>Compare relative cost of each problem category </li></ul><ul><li>Arrange in descending order </li></ul>
  18. 18. Customer complaint
  19. 20. PARETO CHART <ul><li>Utilize: Setting priorities for action </li></ul><ul><li>Pickup an important areas of waste / opportunities and decide how to measure the various contributors. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Complaint nature vs. year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Contribution vs. product </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cost of failure vs. product </li></ul></ul>
  20. 21. Cause-and-Effect Diagram <ul><li>A Cause-and-Effect Diagram (also known as a &quot;Fishbone Diagram&quot;) is a graphical technique for grouping people's ideas about the causes of a problem. </li></ul>
  21. 22. Cause-and-Effect Diagram <ul><li>Dr. Kaoru Ishikawa, a Japanese quality control statistician, invented the fishbone diagram. </li></ul><ul><li>The fishbone diagram is an analysis tool that provides a systematic way of looking at effects and the causes that create or contribute to those effects. </li></ul><ul><li>The design of the diagram looks much like the skeleton of a fish. Therefore, it is often referred to as the fishbone diagram. </li></ul>
  22. 24. Cause-and-Effect Diagram <ul><li>FISHBONE CHART: </li></ul><ul><li>Show relationships between causes and an effect (what we want to study). The major categories of cause contributing to the effect are assigned to the major branches. </li></ul><ul><li>Choose a problem to study </li></ul><ul><li>Clearly define the effect </li></ul><ul><li>Gather people that have knowledge / experience </li></ul><ul><li>Try to get diversified group (different perspectives) </li></ul><ul><li>Group may generate more ideas </li></ul>
  23. 25. Cause-and-Effect Diagram
  24. 26. Cause-and-Effect Diagram (Long Waiting Times)
  25. 27. Brainstorming <ul><li>Brainstorming is a lively technique that helps a group generate as many ideas as possible in a short time period. </li></ul><ul><li>To identify problems, analyze causes, select alternative solutions, do strategic planning, generate ideas for marketing change, and handle many other situations. </li></ul>
  26. 28. <ul><li>Explain the objective of the session: problems, analyze causes, or generate ideas. </li></ul><ul><li>Explain the technique </li></ul><ul><ul><li>looking for a lot of ideas, and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>thoughts and ideas to flow freely. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>There is no right or wrong answer. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The idea of brainstorming is to produce as many innovative ideas as possible. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Silent reflection: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>participants to think about the proposed objective or topic for a few minutes. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Brainstorm: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>call out their ideas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Write them on a flip chart in the order </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Write down the ideas using the words of the speaker. Get clarity if required </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Once the list is finished, discuss it with the group to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Clarify the meaning of some ideas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Combine similar ideas that are worded in different ways </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Eliminate those ideas which are not related to the objective of the session </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Do all this by group consensus. At the end reduce the list to major ideas of the group </li></ul>
  27. 29. Brain storming <ul><li>Conducting brain storming </li></ul><ul><li>Get ideas from every one about possible cause </li></ul><ul><li>Transfer causes into fishbone chart. </li></ul><ul><li>Rank the cause for further study (major impact) </li></ul><ul><li>Prioritise </li></ul><ul><li>Re-draw fish bone final form </li></ul><ul><li>Issue to every one / Notice Board </li></ul><ul><li>Assign teams to work on the major causes </li></ul><ul><li>Schedule further meeting </li></ul><ul><li>Look for causes appeared repeatedly and gather data </li></ul><ul><li>Use the diagram to eliminate possible causes </li></ul>
  28. 30. HISTOGRAM <ul><li>A histogram is a graphical display of tabulated frequencies . </li></ul><ul><li>A histogram is a picture of the variation in a process or a product. It shows the capability of process and helps us to understand and analyse what is happening. </li></ul><ul><li>Shows the spread of variation: </li></ul><ul><li>Average (center) and dispersion </li></ul><ul><li>Range – lowest and highest </li></ul>
  29. 31. HISTOGRAM <ul><li>MAKING OF HISTOGRAMS: </li></ul><ul><li>Decide on the process measures </li></ul><ul><li>Collect the data </li></ul><ul><li>Make a check sheet </li></ul><ul><li>Calculate the range or average </li></ul><ul><li>Prepare frequency table (Measurement at interval and frequency) </li></ul><ul><li>Draw a bar chart (x – class width; y – frequency) </li></ul><ul><li>Connect the center point and draw line </li></ul>
  30. 32. HISTOGRAM
  31. 33. HISTOGRAM
  32. 34. Types of Histograms
  33. 35. HISTOGRAM <ul><li>INTERPRETATION: </li></ul><ul><li>Check the shape (symmetrical, cliff like, [either side], skewed) </li></ul><ul><li>Check for normal distribution </li></ul><ul><li>Compare the range with specification </li></ul><ul><li>Check for improvement </li></ul><ul><li>Target the improvement in the process </li></ul>
  34. 36. CONTROL CHART Dr. Walter A. Shewhart <ul><li>A Control Chart is a tool for use to monitor a process. </li></ul><ul><li>It graphically depicts the average value and the upper and lower control limits of a process. </li></ul><ul><li>A control chart is a moving picture of the variation in a process. This can be used to analyse, stabilize, control and improve the process. </li></ul><ul><li>This is very powerful tool, it tells the current status, capabilities, variation, etc. </li></ul>
  35. 37. CONTROL CHART <ul><li>MAKING CONTROL CHARTS: </li></ul><ul><li>Decide what factor to be studied </li></ul><ul><li>Measure the value </li></ul><ul><li>Calculate X or R and standard deviation. </li></ul><ul><li>Use 25 or more points </li></ul><ul><li>Plot immediately to discover the problems </li></ul><ul><li>Compute a new average after making process change </li></ul><ul><li>For any out of control point on the control chart, record the reason for it and the action taken. </li></ul>
  36. 38. CONTROL CHART
  37. 39. CONTROL CHART <ul><li>INTERPRETATION: </li></ul><ul><li>A process must be stable before you can use a control chart effectively for improvement. </li></ul><ul><li>Use control chart to help track reason for special cause and any significant change. </li></ul><ul><li>Utilize: </li></ul><ul><li>Monitor the performance of process over time / sequence to detect trends, shift or cycle. </li></ul><ul><li>Investigate the reason and eliminate by applying corrective action. </li></ul><ul><li>Compare variables before and after improvement </li></ul>
  38. 40. CONTROL CHART <ul><li>In control process: process average and standard deviation are known and predictable, stable, consistent and unchanging </li></ul><ul><li>Out of control process: process average and standard deviation changing, unstable and inconsistent. </li></ul><ul><li>OOT / Alarm </li></ul><ul><li>Six points consecutive points upward or downward. </li></ul><ul><li>Two out of three points in a row in zone A </li></ul><ul><li>Four out of five points in a row in zone B or beyond A </li></ul><ul><li>Nine ponts in a row on one side of the center line </li></ul><ul><li>fourteen points in a row alternate up and down </li></ul><ul><li>Two out of three points in a row in zone A </li></ul>
  39. 42. Out Of Trend <ul><li>Look for the alarms: </li></ul><ul><li>• No points outside the control limits (upper or lower). </li></ul><ul><li>• No run of 7 consecutive points above or below the average line. </li></ul><ul><li>• No run of 7 consecutive points upward or downward. </li></ul><ul><li>• No pattern with 2/3 of the points in the middle 1/3 of the control limits. </li></ul><ul><li>• No pattern with 2/3 of the points in the outer 2/3 of the control limits. </li></ul><ul><li>If the range is in control then look at the average chart </li></ul><ul><li>Look for the alarms: </li></ul><ul><li>• No points outside the control limits (upper or lower). </li></ul><ul><li>• No run of 7 consecutive points above or below the average line. </li></ul><ul><li>• No run of 7 consecutive points upward or downward. </li></ul><ul><li>• No pattern with 2/3 of the points in the middle 1/3 of the control limits. </li></ul><ul><li>• No pattern with 2/3 of the points in the outer 2/3 of the control limits. </li></ul>
  40. 43. Normal distribution
  41. 44. PROCESS CAPABILITY: <ul><li>Normal Distribution: </li></ul><ul><li>µ ± σ = 68.3% </li></ul><ul><li>µ ± 2σ = 95.4% </li></ul><ul><li>µ ± 3σ = 99.7% </li></ul><ul><li>The capability of the process to meet those specifications is determined by stability of the process, the range of variation and the process aim point: </li></ul>
  42. 45. Normal distribution
  43. 46. <ul><li>Histogram follows normal distribution process meets the specification </li></ul><ul><li>Process capability index can be calculated as below; </li></ul><ul><li>S U - S L </li></ul><ul><li>C P = --------- </li></ul><ul><li> 6s </li></ul><ul><li>One sided specification </li></ul><ul><li>S U - x </li></ul><ul><li>C P = ---------- </li></ul><ul><li> 3s </li></ul><ul><li>x - S L </li></ul><ul><li>C P = --------- </li></ul><ul><li> 3s </li></ul><ul><li>1.33 ≤ C P Satisfiable enough </li></ul><ul><li>1.00 ≤ C P < 1.33 Adequate </li></ul><ul><li>C P < 1.00 Inadequate </li></ul>
  44. 47. Process Capability (Cp) <ul><li>Yield range: 100 -118 kg </li></ul><ul><li>Std deviation : 2.5 </li></ul><ul><li>Mean 110 </li></ul><ul><li> 18 </li></ul><ul><li>Cp = ------- = 1.5 </li></ul><ul><li> 6*2.5 </li></ul>
  45. 48. Cause and effect diagram; Correlation chart; Pareto charts; Brainstorming; Histogram. Analyse causes; plan the improvement. 4. Check sheet; Run chart; Flow chart; Cause and effect diagram; Histogram; Pareto charts; Control charts Study the current process/ situation. 3. Pareto charts; Brainstorming. Clearly define the project; Select the improvement team. 2. Identify the area for improvement; Pareto charts; Cause and effect diagrams, flow chart. Search for opportunities; decide what to work on. 1. TOOLS / TECHNIQUES METHODOLOGY
  46. 49. Cause and effect diagram; Pareto charts; Brain storming Assess progress and plan for the future. 8. Flow chart ;Run chart ; Histogram Standardize the improved process. 7. Run chart; Histogram; Control chart. Study the effect of the changes. 6. Run chart; Histogram; flow chart. Carry out the improvement plan. 5. TOOLS / TECHNIQUES METHODOLOGY
  47. 50. <ul><li>What does not get measured, </li></ul><ul><li>can not be recorded </li></ul><ul><li>What does not get recorded, </li></ul><ul><li>can not be monitored </li></ul><ul><li>What does not get monitored, </li></ul><ul><li>can not be controlled </li></ul><ul><li>What does not get controlled, </li></ul><ul><li>can not be improved </li></ul>
  48. 51. Thank you

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