Mike_Nelson_Amplify 11

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The Future Of The Internet In Two Words: Carpe Diem

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Mike_Nelson_Amplify 11

  1. 1. THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET IN TEN WORDS OR LESS Michael R. Nelson Visiting Professor, Internet Studies Communication, Culture and Technology Program Georgetown University [email_address] <ul><li></li></ul>
  2. 2. THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET IN TEN WORDS OR LESS Michael R. Nelson Visiting Professor, Internet Studies Communication, Culture and Technology Program Georgetown University Twitter: MikeNelson <ul><li></li></ul>
  3. 3. THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET IN TEN WORDS OR LESS Michael R. Nelson Research Associate CSC Leading Edge Forum [email_address] [email_address] <ul><li></li></ul>
  4. 4. <ul><li>B.S., geology, Caltech </li></ul><ul><li>Ph.D., geophysics, MIT </li></ul><ul><li>1988 -- Congressional Science Fellow </li></ul><ul><li>4 years as Senator Gore’s science advisor </li></ul><ul><li>4 years as IT policy guru at White House </li></ul><ul><li>1998-1999 -- Technologist at FCC </li></ul><ul><li>9+ years as IBM’ s Director, Internet Tech. </li></ul><ul><li>Teaching at Georgetown since January, 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Part of Obama campaign’ s tech policy team </li></ul>My Background
  5. 5. <ul><li>What ’s Shaping the Internet </li></ul><ul><li>E-government 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Creating a Culture of Innovation </li></ul><ul><li>How to Predict the Future(s) </li></ul>My Classes
  6. 6. <ul><li>Talk about the IT trends 2011-2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Talk about how to talk about these trends </li></ul><ul><li>Talk about their impact </li></ul><ul><li>Give you some reading assignments </li></ul>My Goals Today
  7. 7. <ul><li>ALWAYS have a good bumper sticker </li></ul>The Most Important Thing I learned in Washington
  8. 8. In Washington, Words Matter <ul><li>The right words can: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Define an issue </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Kill a project </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stir emotions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mobilize people </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Examples: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Obama: “Change” & “Hope” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strategic Defense Initiative > “Star Wars” </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. In Washington, Numbers Matter <ul><li>It helps to have hundreds of pages of data </li></ul>
  10. 10. In Washington, Numbers Matter <ul><li>It helps to have hundreds of pages of data </li></ul><ul><li>But to make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids” </li></ul>
  11. 11. In Washington, Numbers Matter <ul><li>It helps to have hundreds of pages of data </li></ul><ul><li>But to make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids” </li></ul><ul><li>(preferably true) </li></ul>
  12. 12. <ul><li>A personal anecdote is worth a dozen policy papers—especially if other people (and the media) start repeating it. </li></ul>In Washington, Stories Matter
  13. 13. <ul><li>First US Senate hearing on the Internet </li></ul><ul><li>The Internet was the NSFNET and regional academic network connected to it </li></ul><ul><li>A good connection: 1200 bits/second </li></ul><ul><li>Backbone of the NSFNET: 56,000 bits/second! </li></ul>Looking back to 1988
  14. 14. <ul><li>> </li></ul>A Demo for the Senators
  15. 15. <ul><li>>LO </li></ul>A Demo for the Senators
  16. 16. <ul><li>>LOG </li></ul>A Demo for the Senators
  17. 17. <ul><li>>LOGIN </li></ul>A Demo for the Senators
  18. 18. <ul><li>>LOGIN </li></ul><ul><li>>B </li></ul>A Demo for the Senators
  19. 19. <ul><li>>LOGIN </li></ul><ul><li>>BOY </li></ul>A Demo for the Senators
  20. 20. <ul><li>>LOGIN </li></ul><ul><li>>BOY, I </li></ul>A Demo for the Senators
  21. 21. <ul><li>>LOGIN </li></ul><ul><li>>BOY, IS </li></ul>A Demo for the Senators
  22. 22. <ul><li>>LOGIN </li></ul><ul><li>>BOY, IS TH </li></ul>A Demo for the Senators
  23. 23. <ul><li>>LOGIN </li></ul><ul><li>>BOY, IS THIS </li></ul>A Demo for the Senators
  24. 24. <ul><li>>LOGIN </li></ul><ul><li>>BOY, IS THIS S </li></ul>A Demo for the Senators
  25. 25. <ul><li>>LOGIN </li></ul><ul><li>>BOY, IS THIS SLO </li></ul>A Demo for the Senators
  26. 26. <ul><li>>LOGIN </li></ul><ul><li>>BOY, IS THIS SLOW! </li></ul>A Demo for the Senators
  27. 27. <ul><li>>LOGIN </li></ul><ul><li>>BOY, IS THIS SLOW! </li></ul>A Demo for the Senators
  28. 28. <ul><li>We’ll see at least as much change in the next ten years as we have seen in the last twenty </li></ul>So What ’s Next?
  29. 29. <ul><li>We’ll see at least as much change in the next ten years as we have seen in the last twenty </li></ul><ul><li>Maybe TWICE as much </li></ul>So What ’s Next?
  30. 30. <ul><li>We’ll see at least as much change in the next ten years as we have seen in the last twenty </li></ul><ul><li>Maybe TWICE as much </li></ul><ul><li>PROVIDED we don ’t screw things up!! </li></ul>So What ’s Next?
  31. 31. <ul><li>VISION </li></ul>First Word
  32. 32. <ul><li>&quot;Where there is no vision, the people perish ” </li></ul><ul><li>Proverbs 29:18 </li></ul>Words from the Bible
  33. 33. <ul><li>&quot;Where there is no vision, the people perish ” </li></ul><ul><li>Proverbs 29:18 </li></ul><ul><li>(Or at least you waste a lot of time and money.) </li></ul>Words from the Bible
  34. 34. VISION as Elevator Pitch <ul><li>We are entering the third phase of the Internet </li></ul><ul><ul><li>As profound as the World Wide Web </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The next 2-3 years will define the Next Generation Internet </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Standards and business practices are shaping the Net as much—or more—than law and regulation </li></ul><ul><li>The Internet revolution is less than 20% complete </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Number of users </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Total bandwidth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Total amount of content </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Number of devices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Number of applications </li></ul></ul>
  35. 35. <ul><li>CLOUD </li></ul>Second Word
  36. 39. Examples of Cloud Computing <ul><li>Academic grids as a prototype of the cloud </li></ul><ul><li>Amazon, Google, Microsoft building huge data centers and offering online apps </li></ul><ul><li>Hotmail </li></ul><ul><li>Office 365 </li></ul><ul><li>Flickr, YouTube </li></ul><ul><li>Online back-up </li></ul><ul><li>SalesForce.com </li></ul><ul><li>Akamai delivers 15-20 percent of Internet traffic </li></ul><ul><li>BOINC grids more powerful than supercomputers </li></ul>
  37. 40. <ul><li>“ Innovate with impunity” – Business Week </li></ul><ul><li>“ There’s no penalty for guessing wrong.” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(Tony Scott, CIO, Microsoft) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Hypercompetition because SMEs have tools </li></ul><ul><li>“ Ready, fire, aim.” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Prototype, prototype, prototype” </li></ul><ul><li>Think big, start fast, and scale up </li></ul>What the Cloud means to you
  38. 41. Cloud Computing <ul><li>Why it matters: </li></ul><ul><li>This is the 3 rd phase of the Internet </li></ul><ul><li>This is the 3 rd phase of COMPUTING </li></ul>
  39. 42. The Third Phase of the Internet 1969 1980 1990 2000 2010 Capability Phase 1 - Communicating Phase 2 - Content Phase 3 Collaboration ?
  40. 43. “ The Big Switch” by Nicholas Carr
  41. 44. <ul><li>MANY-TO-MANY </li></ul>Third Word
  42. 45. Phase One – Stand Alone Computer App. Data
  43. 46. Phase Two – The Web <ul><li>Web sites </li></ul>Data App. Browser PC Data Data Data Data
  44. 47. Phase Three – The Cloud Data Data Data Data App. App. App.
  45. 48. <ul><li>THINGS </li></ul>Fourth Word
  46. 49. The Internet of Things <ul><li>Why it matters: </li></ul><ul><li>100 billion devices, not just 1.4 billion PCs </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts? </li></ul><ul><li>Increased need for ubiquitous wireless </li></ul><ul><li>A flood of new data from sensors, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>New uses for the Cloud </li></ul>
  47. 50. The Cloud + The Internet of Things Data Data Data Data App. App. App.
  48. 51. The Cloud + The Internet of Things Data Data Data Data App. App. App.
  49. 52. The Cloud + The Internet of Things Data Data Data Data App. App. App.
  50. 53. <ul><li>EXAFLOOD </li></ul>Fifth word
  51. 54. Estimating the Exaflood (Swanson and Gilder, 2008)
  52. 55. What ’s in the Exaflood?
  53. 56. <ul><li>The Promise and Peril of Big Data (2010) </li></ul><ul><li>Aspen Institute Communications and Society Program </li></ul>Dealing with BIG DATA
  54. 57. Dealing with YOUR data Gordon Bell, Microsoft MyLifeBits Lifetime digital diary
  55. 59. <ul><li>TRANSPARENCY </li></ul>Sixth Word
  56. 60. <ul><li>Confidentiality, Privacy, and Transparency in the Age of Wikileaks </li></ul><ul><li>Imperative for Transparency </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Open government </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Innovation ecosystems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing buzz; Fostering trust </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Recruiting, Retention, and Morale </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Leveraging your data > new services </li></ul></ul>Ongoing LEF Research
  57. 61. <ul><li>Your organization needs a </li></ul><ul><li>TRANSPARENCY POLICY </li></ul>More than a Privacy Policy
  58. 62. Security + Transparency
  59. 63. <ul><li>CONSUMERIZATION </li></ul>Seventh Word
  60. 64. <ul><li>From Consumerization to the Cloud – the accelerating rate of IT change </li></ul><ul><li>By Doug Neal </li></ul><ul><li>30 November 2009 </li></ul>Consumerization of the Workplace
  61. 65. <ul><li>Your employees want to use the best tools </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Facebook </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LinkedIn </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hotmail </li></ul></ul><ul><li>They ’re work life and family life are merging </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Calendars </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Instant messaging </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Video, Skype </li></ul></ul><ul><li>They want reliability, portability, the Cloud </li></ul>Consumerization of the Workplace
  62. 66. <ul><li>PEOPLE </li></ul>Eighth Word
  63. 67. <ul><li>Hardware </li></ul>
  64. 68. <ul><li>Hardware </li></ul>
  65. 69. <ul><li>Hardware </li></ul>
  66. 70. <ul><li>Hardware </li></ul>
  67. 71. <ul><li>Hardware </li></ul><ul><li>Software </li></ul>
  68. 72. <ul><li>Hardware </li></ul><ul><li>Software </li></ul><ul><li>People </li></ul>
  69. 73. <ul><li>Hardware </li></ul><ul><li>Software </li></ul><ul><li>Organizations </li></ul><ul><li>People </li></ul>
  70. 74. <ul><li>Hardware </li></ul><ul><li>Software </li></ul><ul><li>Organizations </li></ul><ul><li>People </li></ul>
  71. 75. . <ul><li>Software </li></ul><ul><li>Organizations </li></ul><ul><li>People </li></ul>
  72. 76. <ul><li>Software </li></ul><ul><li>Organizations </li></ul><ul><li>People </li></ul>
  73. 77. <ul><li>Organizations </li></ul><ul><li>People </li></ul>
  74. 78. <ul><li>New modes of teaming </li></ul><ul><li>Need “double-deep” employees </li></ul><ul><li>New communications skills </li></ul>Implications
  75. 79. <ul><li>The Future of Work: What It Means for Individuals, Businesses, Markets and Governments </li></ul><ul><li>By David Bollier </li></ul><ul><li>March 10, 2011 </li></ul>Required Reading
  76. 80. <ul><li>COMMUNITY </li></ul>Ninth Word
  77. 83. <ul><li>Love (or Lust) </li></ul><ul><li>Fear </li></ul><ul><li>Envy </li></ul><ul><li>Distraction </li></ul><ul><li>Anxiety </li></ul>Emotions online
  78. 84. <ul><li>Communication </li></ul><ul><li>Content </li></ul><ul><li>Collaboration </li></ul><ul><li>Community > Commitment </li></ul>Killer Apps of the Net
  79. 85. Required Reading
  80. 86. <ul><li>PREDICTIONS </li></ul>Tenth Word
  81. 87. <ul><li>Within 5 years, 80% of all computing and storage done worldwide could happen “in the cloud” </li></ul>BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #1
  82. 88. <ul><li>Within 5 years, 80% of all computing and storage done worldwide could happen “in the cloud” </li></ul><ul><li>(But it might take 10 years) </li></ul>BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #1
  83. 89. <ul><li>Within 5 years, 100 BILLION devices and sensors could be connected to the Net </li></ul>BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #2
  84. 90. <ul><li>Within 5 years, 100 BILLION devices and sensors will be connected to the Net </li></ul><ul><li>(But it might take 10 years) </li></ul>Not-quite-so-audacious Prediction #2
  85. 91. <ul><li>Technical </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Agreement and adoption of key standards </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>IPv6, DNSsec, IPsec, Grid standards </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Business practices </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cooperation around open standards vs. proprietary lock-in; open source software </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Culture </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Users have to learn to “trust the cloud” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CIOs and their teams have to adapt to new roles </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Policy </li></ul>Why Not?
  86. 92. <ul><li>POLICY </li></ul>One Last Word
  87. 93. <ul><li>Organizations </li></ul><ul><li>People </li></ul><ul><li>Policy </li></ul><ul><li>Hardware </li></ul><ul><li>Software </li></ul>
  88. 94. <ul><li>Privacy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Search warrants, wiretapping in the Cloud? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Transparency </li></ul><ul><li>Online copyright </li></ul><ul><li>Liability for cloud service providers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Who ’s responsible for Illegal activities? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>International data flows </li></ul><ul><li>Competition policy </li></ul>Updating policies for the Cloud
  89. 95. <ul><li>If we make the right choices: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Internet continues to grow </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bandwidth explodes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wireless everywhere </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10x, 100x more applications </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Internet of Things > Invisible Computing </li></ul></ul>We Have 3 or 4 Years
  90. 96. <ul><li>If we make the right choices: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Internet continues to grow </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bandwidth explodes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wireless everywhere </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10x, 100x more applications </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Internet of Things > Invisible Computing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>If we blow it: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Internet becomes Cable TV </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Innovation shuts down </li></ul></ul>We Have 3 or 4 Years
  91. 97. Conclusions <ul><li>The Internet Revolution is less than 20% complete </li></ul><ul><li>The Internet Revolution will be as disruptive as the printing press, but: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Much faster </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Totally global </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More unpredictable </li></ul></ul><ul><li>When in doubt, empower the user! </li></ul>
  92. 98. Back-up slides
  93. 99. <ul><li>Will my provider be here tomorrow? Next year? </li></ul><ul><li>Is redundancy built in? </li></ul><ul><li>Are my networks reliable enough? </li></ul><ul><li>Will I need to retrain my employees? </li></ul><ul><li>Do I need to retrain my IT team? </li></ul><ul><li>What stays on the laptop? </li></ul>Questions to ask about Cloud
  94. 100. <ul><li>A Workbook for Cloud Computing in the Enterprise </li></ul><ul><li>By Doug Neal </li></ul><ul><li>18 January 2010 </li></ul>LEF Guide to the Cloud

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