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  • CONSTRAINT: Some aspects of post-emergence and post-limit systems can’t be understood or guided by pre-singularity systems.
  • We have a very limited, top-down controlled kind of Television today. True internet television, or iTV , via Google, Boxee, and competitors is coming to us this year, a full 12 years after Microsoft’s Web TV tried to pioneer this space. Fortunately in just a few years we will have Millions of Channels , Social Viewing, Collaborative Filtering, Realtime Chat, and many other features. The first gen, keyboard-based interface on today's iTVs suck (see Logitech Revue 2010). People don’t want to type first, they want to tap first, and talk, and type as needed. Here's a worthy project: Someone needs to hack GoogleTV 2010 to use an iPad as the remote. We also need Google Voice App as an alternate interface. Open Video Markup Standards will be needed for iTV, because to bring bottom-up intelligence and democracy to our TV platform we need to able to make micropayments, do subscriptions, and make money on per-click ads, and we need to be able to ban ads and ad types that we don’t want. Once 100 Mbps bandwidth arrives at home, millions of lean and independent new media channels can make money through iTV. If people start leaving Network and Cable TV for iTV, old media will have to adopt open video markup standards, and consumer choice, or they will die. For the next five to ten years we will have the same bandwidth problem with iTV that we have with VideoPhones, so we need creative solutions, like those I described for videophones There’s more we could say about iTV. Check out my 50-page whitepaper , How the Television Will be Revolutionized , 2010, for more.
  • How do we make our immersive space more intelligent? One key will be the Conversational Interface, or CI, a natural language processing platform that increasingly understands the semantic meaning of our words and text. See my online Conversational Interface article, 2003, and Peter Norvig's Unreasonable Effectiveness of Data , 2010, for more on this. The bottom line is that we are going to have computers that crudely understand our semantic intent, both written and spoken, in the next five to ten years, and this is going to be one of the biggest changes in the web that any of us will live to see. The first semi-viable CI game, Kate & Milo , launches on the Xbox Kinetc this Dec. When CI’s have been around for a few years we can expect AR memeshows , or auto-generated displays of related concepts, statistics, links, pictures, and video, to visually accompany many of our workplace and creative conversations. CI's will also allow the emergence of Cybertwins , or language using avatars, which nod when they understand us and make other gestures when they don’t. CI-using Cybertwins will be able to map our interests and values, to better serve us, and this will allow the emergence of a Valuecosm , or values maps of all the actors in our digital world. These maps will allow incredible new forms of positive sum collaboration, and new diversity in social subcultures. How early will we let kids have cybertwins? Will you talk to your cybermom instead of a going to tombstone to grieve when your biological mom dies? Will you allow software companies like Google to make your cybermom smarter every year, even after your biological mom dies? The lawyers will be busy. We are just beginning to ask these questions .
  • We need to get cellphones more wearable, on our wrists, belts, necks, or elsewhere, so they can become first-gen AR systems . The Wrist Phone (pic) is my favorite, as it can delivers continuous AR on the back of the hand today. A slap bracelet design, with two flat screens, a third screen that folds out, and three flat batteries, would be excellent. These phones also need lithium titanate or lithium phospate nanobatteries , which charge 60% in 60 seconds, 5 to 10 times faster than regular batteries. A123 and Toshiba already make and sell these batteries for other uses. Vacaville CA has a Fast Charging Station that will charge a Nissan Leaf automobile up to 60% of battery capacity in just 10 minutes, coffee break time. We need fast chargers in Starbucks that will charge our cellphone and laptop nanobatteries 60% in 60 seconds, for three bucks. This is doable today. We also need to make it legal to use smart AR phones, with voice and steering wheel controls, when we take them off our wrists or belts and place them on our dashboards, in the Hood Occlusion Zone. That makes them just another display. When we are ready for second gen AR , we can go to audio with a bluetooth earpiece, and video with a half-silvered mirror on our sunglasses. Finally, when Microvision’s primary patents expire in 10 years, we can go to microlasers which paint virtual images on our retinas, which is the best video AR platform I’ve seen yet.
  • Once we have iTV and multiple tablets in the home, that platform will compete with our existing gaming consoles. They will evolve as a result. With multiple tablets, people can display private info and specialized hand controls and accelerometers on the tablets, allowing new generations of games in addition to speech and our existing console devices and sensors. How soon can our living rooms get Third-Cave , two screen, 120 degree, and Half-Cave , three screen, 180 degree, displays? Manufacturers need to deliver two- and three-screen projection systems for under $1,000, and LCDs for more. At the same time, we need to make two and three screen setups efficient and viral for leading VW communities, such as the 12 million WoW and 6 million The Sims players we have today. The left screen can be for personal info/stats, the right one for others/community info, and the center one for the game. Add a large, horizontal multitouch flatscreen that can be placed on a coffeetable or kitchen table, and you’ve got a Game Table . You can also place and register physical objects on the multitouch surface. This is the game and strategy board that all our table-centric games are waiting for. From Checkers to Civilization, you’ve totally changed the level of immersion with this platform. Now add Kinetc-grade motion sensors on the monitors and a 10 x 10 rollaway pressure mat for the floor, and you’ve created a Game Space , for everything from Kid’s Educational games to Exergames to whatever. This kind of Game Space is the most addictive and immersive gaming, learning, productivity, and entertainment platform I can foresee arriving in the near term. With the right partners and strategy, I think it could be built and made commercially successful as early as the next three to five years. Any takers?
  • When we think of the future of work and collaboration, having Valuecosm maps of all of us will lead to major new Positive Sum Collaborations . It will be easier than ever to find others who share our values, and form subcultures with them. There’s at least one more major collaborative development that we can imagine. The most important kind of immersion is being connected to other human beings, and there will be people, particularly kids, who will experiment with 24/7 immersion. Symbiont Networks are groups of people, who share each other’s lifestreams, and have the ability to unobtrusively communicate, via AR text, audio, and video, with others in their symbiont. If such groups don’t grow beyond our Dunbar Number, the 150 people we can deeply model as friends and associates, and if they stress cognitive diversity and collaboration management, and have reputation systems, so that everyone who asks services from the group has to contribute services in return, and gets these rated on their usefulness, then symbionts will very rapidly outperform unconnected individuals. I could say a lot more about how we will use these systems for productivity and self-improvement, as well as their hazards, but for more on this, I recommend my online article, Human Performance Enhancement in 2035 .
  • This leads us to our last slide, helping people become better decisionmakers and and self-actualizers. The book Streetlights and Shadows , by Gary Klein, studies how people make decisions under stress and uncertainty. Klein found that to be good decisionmakers people need to gain personal experience making tough decisions . Where they gained that experience didn’t matter. What mattered was the prior experience. People need to experience moral tests and moral dilemmas, and through such dilemmas, they learn for themselves when it is best to follow rules , and when it is best to break them. Good decisionmakers can confidently engage in both behaviors, and vibrant, innovative societies benefit from, and even encourage, occasional rule breakers. For me, global development of human Self-Actualization, Self-Control, and Self-Awareness are the final frontier for the human species. Here at the start of the 21 st century, we semi-technological human beings are slowly learning how to squirt our own dopamine, for all the things we care about. Consider how meditation measurably thickens our corpus callosum, integrating our brain . Cognitive behavioral therapy , social interaction , and other forms of learning , decisionmaking , and self-actualization also have measurable beneficial effects, including modulating our stress hormones, and increasing our resiliency and performance. Self-actualization in general , or being internally controlled as well as reactive to your environment, is where we are headed as individuals and as a species . We need immersive learning games that will measure and incentivize these things, and help us to maximize them.
  • Problem: Globalization, Tech Accel. Increasing Rich-Poor Divides (Zero or Negative Sum). Corporations are now larger than govts (1950 vs. today), less accountable. Solution: Trust busting, Redistribution, Tax Rate Rationalization. Corporate transparency. Global national cooperation. Purchase products from countries (Scandinavia, Germany) where this isn’t true. America had a 90% marginal income tax above $4 million a year in Eisenhower’s era. We’ll put it back. Scandinavian countries (Finland, Sweden, Norway, etc.) still have this kind of progressive tax structure.
  • Problem: Wired & Wireless Broadband. Lack of Competition in Telcomm Industry (Oligopoly, Monopoly (Telstra) Solution: Buy Google TV, Ditch your Cable. Go Satellite. Emulate broadband leader nation’s structures. S. Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Scandinavia. Urban broadband first, rural second. Urban dev will catalyze suburban & rural dev in this case.
  • Problem: Lack of Innovation in Auto Industry on Electric Cars Solution: Buy a Prius. Optional: Mod it, or Buy an Independent Electric. The 3-5% solution. 13 mile Plug in HEV – Totally underpowered, three years late. Not the engineers fault. Engineers can do anything (Apollo Shot). It’s the executives that are risk-averse, counterinnovative, and short-term oriented. Big Companies are Counterinnovative (Innovator’s Dilemma).
  • Problem: Lack of Individual Development in Education. No civics. Not enough personal experimentation. Montessori/Waldorf/Steiner style. Kids will change their jobs 8 times over their careers. Four will be forced changes due to tech disruption. Jobs of the Future: Tele-everything, incl. Telemassage (w/ massage chairs), Lifelog curator, iTV channel producer, cybertwin upgrader, transparency auditor, … Solution: The Finland Phenomenon. (Details)
  • Problem: Globalization, Tech Accel. Increasing Rich-Poor Divides (Zero or Negative Sum). Corporations are now larger than govts (1950 vs. today), less accountable. Solution: Trust busting, Redistribution, Tax Rate Rationalization. Corporate transparency. Global national cooperation. Purchase products from countries (Scandinavia, Germany) where this isn’t true. America had a 90% marginal income tax above $4 million a year in Eisenhower’s era. We’ll put it back. Scandinavian countries (Finland, Sweden, Norway, etc.) still have this kind of progressive tax structure.
  • Problem: How do we learn faster from catastrophe? GFC? 9/11? Global Warming? Philippine’s Mt. Pinatubo eruption (1991) cooled the planet about half a degree centigrade for three years afterward. Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011) eruptions probably produced more cooling than all govt efforts combined in those years (David Evans, former Australian govt. climate scientist, 1999-2006). I Was On the Global Warming Gravy Train, David Evans, 2007. There are efficiency and tech solutions, vs. more govt. regulation and taxes. Surgeons love to cut. Govts love to grow.
  • Problem: Lack of Sufficient Individual Intelligence/Control/Self-Awareness vs. Global/Top-Down Control (Govts, Corporations). Learned Helplessness Solution: Learned Optimism, Digital Activism. Push for anything that maximizes Individual Intelligence, Incentivizes Self-Reliance Facebook, Smartphones, Wikis,
  • Problem: Insufficient Localism (Local Cooperation) in aggressive globalization. Insufficient community development. Bowling Alone (loss of community). Solution: Dump your cable! Use Netflix, Amazon, YouTube, Google TV. Build local communities on Facebook, Wikis, Blogs, Meetups, Foursquare, Twitter, etc. Ex: Food Industry (Duopoly, Coles & Woolworths). Solution: Local Food Movement, Local Bartering, Local Currencies (Marin Community Foods Market). Australia has a fine for not voting every four years. Rational: Improves voter participation, but it is enforced (fake) participation. People go through the motions. You don’t get to see how disengaged people are. Force, and taxation, is the easy solution. How about donating $100 to your favorite nonprofit instead of a fine? That money shouldn’t go to govt. Much better would be convenient e-voting, combined with Germany’s voting system . Subsidized political media, no paid political ads. People’s conversations are more important than corporate dollars. US has lost this with Citizens United (protected corporate political speak). Make voting convenient, and online, and you’ll see much more of it.
  • Problem: Lack of Growth in Alternative (Sustainable) Energy, Energy Efficiency is 90% of the near term solutions (JS Tweets reference) but it isn’t being incentivized. Solution: German Solar Power (leasing community land). Australia too? Solution: Everyone gets incentives for planting and keeping alive two trees a year. UN’s Plant for the Planet program. Solution: Offshore Wind. 20% of Energy in Denmark. Australia too? Solution: Most sustainable energy advances over next decade will be efficiency advances. Govt, Corps and Consumers should seek out, adopt, recommend and incentivize these.
  • Problem: Not enough focus on STEM Education, Technical Capacity & Technical Productivity. Solution: Increase study, understanding, debate on Universal Values (Inglehart’s Values Map, Singularity).
  • Competition. Use competitive intelligence . Look to the whole world for solutions. Have a global perspective. Individuality. Choose its Own Way (Don’t Follow America) – Maximize uniqueness and diversity , wherever it makes sense. Intelligence. Be digital activists. Maximize both network and individual intelligence, over the pyramid/hierarchy (corps & govts) I’ll leave you to fill out the other values for yourself!
  • John_Smart_Amplify11

    1. 1. Accelerating Change, Our Digital Future, and the Values of Progress Amplify 11: Everything Connects 6-10 June 2011  Sydney, NSW, Australia John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation Slides:
    2. 2. Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do <ul><li>▪ We practice evolutionary developmental (“ evo devo ”) foresight, a model of change that proposes the universe contains both: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and creative paths (most of which will fail) and a small set of </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Convergent and predictable developmental constraints (initial conditions, constancies) which direct certain aspects of our long-range future. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>▪ Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to the future of complex systems on Earth include: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Accelerating intelligence , interdependence and immunity in our global sociotechnological systems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing technological autonomy , and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physical-digital interface. </li></ul></ul>© 2010
    3. 3. Accelerating Change Science and Technology Grow Faster and Smarter Every Year, Creating Both Disruption and Opportunity
    4. 4. World Economic Performance <ul><li>GDP per capita in West Europe, </li></ul><ul><li>from 1000-1999 A.D. </li></ul><ul><li>This curve is smooth and superexponential on a very long time scale. </li></ul><ul><li>Note the “knee of the curve” (state switch) occurs in 1850, at the Industrial Revolution . </li></ul><ul><li>Next, growth gets so fast it goes vertical “wall of curve” in 1950. </li></ul><ul><li>Such supergrowth signals birth of a whole new stable system (geo  bio  techno) </li></ul><ul><li>Each way faster than prior sys. </li></ul>Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD , Angus Maddison, 2007
    5. 5. Moore’s Law and Mead’s Law, or the Law of Miniaturization Efficiency (LME) <ul><li>Moore’s Law. In1965, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted that computer chips (processors, memory, etc.) were doubling in complexity every 12-24 months at constant unit cost. </li></ul><ul><li>If this continued (and it did) on average, affordable computing capacity (memory, input, output, processing) grows by 1000X (ten doublings: 2,4,8,16,32…. 1024) every 15 years. A recipe for continual emergence! </li></ul><ul><li>Mead’s Law. In 1967, Carver Mead discovered a Law of Miniaturization Efficiency. Computer chip efficiencies increase by the cube (power of three) of the reduction in scale. As transistor density goes up linearly in two dimensions, this exponentially increases speed (less distance to travel) computational power (speed × density), decreases power consumption, increases system reliability, and decreases cost per unit. Wow. </li></ul>© 2010 Gordon Moore Carver Mead
    6. 6. The J Curve <ul><li>First-Order Components are growth-limited Hierarchical Substrates (S- or B-Curves) </li></ul><ul><li>Second-Order Hyperbolic Growth Emergence Singularities (marginal innovations, transformations) and a Limit Singularity (prior to a system transformation) </li></ul>Examples: ▪ Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar ▪ Chaisson’s FERD (Complexity) ▪ Global Economic Performance ▪ Sci & Tech Performance Metrics ▪ Cultural Adoption of Innovation Accelerating Socio-Technological Evolution: From Ephemeralization and Stigmergy to the Global Brain , Francis Heylighen, 2007. © 2010
    7. 7. Four Alternative Growth Scenarios: Jim Dator’s “Four Futures” <ul><li>Key Images/Stories/Policies With Respect to Change </li></ul><ul><li>First two are Evolutionary (“Innovation”). </li></ul><ul><li>Second two are Developmental (“Sustainability”). </li></ul>Dator, Jim. 1979. Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, Academic Press. <ul><li>Rig ht wing </li></ul><ul><li>Continuation (Economic Issues) </li></ul><ul><li>Limits & Discipline </li></ul><ul><li>(Social Issues) </li></ul><ul><li>Le ft wing </li></ul><ul><li>Continuation (Social Issues) </li></ul><ul><li>Limits & Discipline (Economic Issues) </li></ul><ul><li>Up wing </li></ul><ul><li>Transformation (Selective Issues) </li></ul><ul><li>Down wing </li></ul><ul><li>Decline & Collapse (Selective Issues) </li></ul>© 2010
    8. 8. The Developmental Spiral <ul><li>Homo Habilis Age 2,000,000 yrs ago </li></ul><ul><li>Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 yrs </li></ul><ul><li>Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age 40,000 yrs </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural Age 7,000 yrs </li></ul><ul><li>Empires Age 2,500 yrs </li></ul><ul><li>Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770) </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial Age 180 yrs (1770-1950) </li></ul><ul><li>Information Age 70 yrs (1950-2020) </li></ul><ul><li>Symbiotic Age 30 yrs (2020-2050) </li></ul><ul><li>Autonomy Age 10 yrs (2050-2060) </li></ul><ul><li>Tech Singularity ≈ 2060 </li></ul>© 2010
    9. 9. Our Digital Future The Conversational Interface, the Cybertwin, and the Valuecosm - How the Web and Individuals Will Both Get Smarter Relative to Corporations and Governments in Coming Decades, and Why That Matters
    10. 10. © 2010 The Future of the Web (2007) The Future of Internet TV (2010) John Smart, 2010 (48 pp) Smart et. al., 2007 (98 pp)
    11. 11. Five Generic Steps in Web Development <ul><li>Web 1.0 Read Mainly - Graphical UI </li></ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 Read/Write/Participatory - Social UI </li></ul><ul><li>Web 3.0 3D/Video (iTV, VW, MW, AR,) - Metaverse UI </li></ul><ul><li>Web 4.0 Semantic (Valuecosm) - Conversational UI </li></ul><ul><li>Web 5.0 Intelligent (Planetization, Global Brain, Tech and Social ‘Singularity’) - Cognitive UI </li></ul><ul><li>We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback. </li></ul><ul><li>Edge platforms include search (Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha), telephony (iPhone, Android, Google Voice), static and mobile social networking (Facebook, Foursquare), microblogging (Twitter), conferencing and collaboration environments (Skype, Wave, WebEx, Wikis), video (YouTube, Boxee, P2PTV), games and virtual worlds (XBox Live, Second Life), mirror worlds (Google Earth), avatars (Miis, MyCyberTwin), lifelogging (MyLifeBits), augmented reality (QR codes, Wikitude, Layar). </li></ul><ul><li>Collectively, these are today more a story of intelligence amplification (IA, ‘Sociotech’) than of artificial intelligence (AI, ‘Infotech’) . </li></ul><ul><li>This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction process society has ever engaged in. </li></ul>Smart, John et. al. 2007. Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025) . Web Metaverse Metahumanity © 2010
    12. 12. Online Economy: Growing Even Faster than China <ul><li>From 1996 to 2010, total internet users grew from 36 million to 1.9 billion, or from 1% to 27% of the world. </li></ul><ul><li>There were 1 billion PC’s (desktops, laptops, tablets) in use globally in 2008, with a projected doubling to 2 billion by 2015, or a compound AGR of 10% per year. </li></ul><ul><li>From 1996 to 2006, U.S. online retail (B2C) e-commerce, a proxy for the virtual economy, grew from 5 million to $95 billion, with 2009 global compound AGR of 11% per year . </li></ul><ul><li>By the end of 2011, 1 billion people, 16% of the world, is projected to be on the web via smartphones, which grow at a compound AGR of 14% per year. </li></ul><ul><li>Facebook, the worlds leading social software, has grown to 600 million users (one out of every 11 people on the planet) in 7 years, a marginal AGR of 100% per year. </li></ul><ul><li>Key Point : Think of the Virtual (Online, Metaverse) Economy as the future , even more, much more, than “China as the future.” </li></ul>© 2010
    13. 13. Web 3.0 (The 3D/Video Web) is On the Horizon Open Internet TV Will Be The Killer App of Web 3.0 © 2010
    14. 14. Conversational Interface, Memeshows, Cybertwins, and Valuecosm <ul><li>Date Avg. Query Platform </li></ul><ul><li>1.3 words Altavista </li></ul><ul><li>2.6 words Google </li></ul><ul><li>5.2 words GoogleHelp </li></ul><ul><li>2019 10.4 words GoogleBrain </li></ul>Average spoken human-to-human query length is 8-11 words. Codebreaking follows a logistic curve. Collective NLP may as well. Smart, J. 2003. The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward.
    15. 15. Global Digital Transparency: Result of a Networked Planet <ul><li>Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said . Then everything we’ve ever seen . All this storage, processing, and bandwidth makes us all networkable in ways we never dreamed. Add NLP , collaborative filtering , and other early AI to this, and all this data begins turning into collective intelligence . </li></ul>Gmail (2004) preserves every email we’ve ever typed. Gmailers are all bloggers who don’t know it. Nokia’s Lifeblog (2004) (photos, movie clips, text messages, notes), SenseCam and MyLifeBits (2003) early examples of lifelogs , systems for auto-recording, archiving indexing, and searching all our life experience, as it happens. © 2010
    16. 16. Virtual Space is Fastspace: Mirror Worlds, Virtual Worlds, AR, Lifelogs Second Life <ul><li>Rapid, interactive, multi-user </li></ul><ul><li>Collaboration environments (user-created content) </li></ul><ul><li>Optimization environments (GIS, automation, AI) </li></ul><ul><li>More fun than older digital media (games & VWs outsell movies, now and forever). </li></ul><ul><li>Still Bandwidth- and CPU- limited (not yet “hyperreal”). </li></ul>Synthetic Worlds , 2005 © 2010 Our free report: The Sims Google Earth + Street View
    17. 17. First ‘Picturephone’ (AT&T 1970) ‘ Bracelet phone’ concept (Vodafone 2006) ‘ Carpal PC’ concept (Metaverse Roadmap 2007) Flip Ultra (2007, $130) Top-selling camcorder. Necklace phone (Nokia 2004) iPhone (Apple 2007) Wearable Cellphones, Lifelogs, and AR
    18. 18. LED Screens, Half-Caves, and Game Tables: Telepresence, Gameification, & Serious Games © 2009 Dexcom glucose monitor, 2010 Milo and Kate, Microsoft 2010 Half-Cave, 2010 DriveSharp, 2010
    19. 19. Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent Interface (“CyberTwin”) in 2010? In 2020? Ananova, 2000 “ Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987 Nonverbal and verbal language in parallel is a much more efficient communication modality. Birdwhistell says 2/3 (but perhaps only 1/3) of info in face-to-face human conversation is nonverbal. © 2010
    20. 20. Circa 2020: The Symbiotic Age <ul><li>A Coevolution Between Saturating Humans </li></ul><ul><li>and Accelerating Technology. </li></ul><ul><li>A time when: </li></ul><ul><li>▪ Complex things can “speak our language.” </li></ul><ul><li>▪ Our technologies become very responsive to our needs and desires. </li></ul><ul><li>▪ Humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other. </li></ul><ul><li>▪ We will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes.” </li></ul>© 2010
    21. 21. <ul><li>Conversational interfaces lead to personality models. </li></ul><ul><li>In the long run, we become seamless with our machines. </li></ul><ul><li>No other credible long-term futures have been proposed. </li></ul><ul><li>“ Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” ( Brian Arthur , SFI) </li></ul>Personality Capture: A Long-Term Development of Intelligence Amplification © 2010
    22. 22. Your Cybertwin (Digital Self): Helping You Now, Helping Others Later Greg Panos and his Digital Mom Note the conflict between these two statements: “ I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.” “ I enjoy saving stories about my life for my children.” Prediction: ▪ When your mother dies in 2040, your digital mom will be “50% her.” ▪ When your best friend dies in 2060, your digital best friend will be “80% him.” Cybertwins, as our digital agents, will engage in successive approximation, gentle integration, subtle capturing and transition… of our selves. When we can shift our conscious perspective between our electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological should feel like only growth, not death. We wouldn’t have it any other way. © 2010
    23. 23. Circa 2030: The Valuecosm A More Pluralistic and Positive-Sum Future <ul><li>Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s </li></ul><ul><li>Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s </li></ul><ul><li>Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s </li></ul><ul><li>Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s </li></ul><ul><li>- Recording & Publishing Cybertwin Prefs </li></ul><ul><li>- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us </li></ul><ul><li>- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions </li></ul><ul><li>- Much Early Abuse (Marketing, Fraud, Advise) </li></ul><ul><li>- Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) </li></ul><ul><li>- Today’s Leading Edge: Social Network Media </li></ul>© 2010
    24. 24. Better Work and Collaboration: Symbiont Networks © 2009 <ul><li>When we have an early Metaverse 2.0, lifelogs, and pervasive broadband connectivity, we can expect… </li></ul><ul><li>150 (Dunbar number) of our kids most cognitively diverse (Page 2008) friends permissioned into their lifestreams, 24/7. </li></ul><ul><li>A reputation and reciprocity collaboration system that keeps everyone contributing to the symbiont (no free riders). </li></ul><ul><li>Powerful new group learning and expert performance, with symbionts seriously outperforming unconnected individuals. Always having 150 “lifelines” who know you, in any situation. </li></ul><ul><li>New cultural protocols, symbionts must be temporarily turned off for job interviews, tests, private moments, etc.). </li></ul><ul><li>Serious behavioral modification (juveniles, criminals, mentally ill) and performance enhancement. </li></ul><ul><li>Fantastic new subcultural diversity (transhumanist symbionts, Amish symbionts, etc.) </li></ul>Page, Scott. 2008. The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools and Societies , Princeton U. Press.
    25. 25. Better Decisionmaking and Self-Actualization: The Emerging Digital Self © 2009 <ul><li>Some Challenges - particularly early: </li></ul><ul><li>Data Security and Privacy </li></ul><ul><li>Predictive Marketing and Profiling </li></ul><ul><li>Debt Slavery and Overconsumption </li></ul><ul><li>New Forms of Crime and Fraud </li></ul><ul><li>Polarizing and Isolating Eco Chambers (collapse of community) </li></ul><ul><li>Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s?) </li></ul><ul><li>New Addictions and Dependencies (CT ‘relationships’?) </li></ul><ul><li>Some Opportunities - particularly later: </li></ul><ul><li>Indiv. Intell./Performance Enhancement (Complete your sentences?) </li></ul><ul><li>Group Intelligence/Perform. Enhancement (Symbiont networks) </li></ul><ul><li>Subculture Diversity and Victimless Variety </li></ul><ul><li>Global Communication & Collaboration (no language barrier) </li></ul><ul><li>Digital and Educational Divides (greatly reduced) </li></ul><ul><li>Indiv./Group/Culture Rights Representation (‘lobby twins’) </li></ul><ul><li>Transparency and Accountablity of Corps, Institutions, Govts. </li></ul>
    26. 26. The Values of Progress Where Do We Want the World to Go, As Leaders? Where Does the World Want Us to Go?
    27. 27. Evolutionary Values (Local, Bottom-Up) Competition /Independence/Personal Advancement Innovation /Creativity/Experimentation/Freedom Individuality /Diversity/Intuition/Subjective Truth Adapt ability Values (Mix) Positive Sumness / Morality/Democracy/Capitalism Resil iency /Immunity/Security Intell igence / Awareness/Learning/Adaptive Ability Developmental Values (Global, Top-Down) Cooperation /Dependence/Harmony Sustainability /Convergent Unification/Protection Universality /Generality/Rationality/Objective Truth The Values of Progress (and Profit) My Personal Take. What’s Yours? Smart, John. 2008. Evo Devo Universe? In: Cosmos & Culture, Dick and Lupisella (eds) NASA Press.
    28. 28. © 2011 Competition, Positive Sumness, Intell igence : Value Investing for Profit
    29. 29. © 2011 Competition : An Evolutionary Value <ul><li>Problem: Growing Broadband Access Gap (Wired and Wireless), Due to a Lack of Competition (no Meritocracy) in US & Australia, vs. Japan, Taiwan, S. Korea, Canada, Scandinavia, Germany, even UK! </li></ul><ul><li>- Monopoly and oligopoly telcos. </li></ul><ul><li>Not a national priority for govt leaders. </li></ul><ul><li>Policy delay tactics (fiber over wireless, rural rollout same speed as urban) </li></ul>Solutions: Govts: Study leader nation’s models. Quantify the loss. Corps: Demand better service. Fund reform politicians. Individuals: Pay more. Work with small ISPs .
    30. 30. © 2011 Innovation : An Evolutionary Value <ul><li>Problem: Lack of Innovation in Electric Cars, a massive energy efficiency and grid development opportunity. </li></ul><ul><li>- Oligopoly automakers have no incentive to innovate until someone takes 3-5% of the market ( Innovator’s Dilemma ). </li></ul><ul><li>Big barriers to entry for small firms </li></ul><ul><li>Industry delay tactics (hydrogen over electric, electrics over plug-in hybrids, plug-in’s delayed and crippled vs. potential) </li></ul>Solutions: Govts: Quantify the loss. Subsidize factories, purchases. Corps: Subsidize purchases, buy fleets from small mfg’s. Individuals: Buy a Prius! Single best envir. decision avail.
    31. 31. © 2011 Individuality : An Evolutionary Value <ul><li>Problem: Low Levels of Individual Development in Our Educ. System, a major national loss of creativity, autonomy, productivity, & democracy. </li></ul><ul><li>Kids will have 8-10 jobs. Lifelong learners! </li></ul><ul><li>No opport. for personal experimentation (Montessori/Waldorf/Steiner style) </li></ul><ul><li>Too much testing, too many nat’l standards </li></ul><ul><li>Teachers w/ little educ. , pay and freedom . </li></ul><ul><li>Early tracking, no civics education. </li></ul><ul><li>Poor integration of vocational & academic </li></ul>Solutions: Govts: Copy successful nations ( Finland Phenomenon ). Corps: More selective hiring. More training and lobbying. Individuals: Use online charter schools & ed. networks.
    32. 32. © 2011 Positive Sumness: An Evo Devo Value <ul><li>Problem: Tech Acceleration & Globalization (MNCs) Create Increasing Rich-Poor Divides, and zero-sum or negative sum politics. </li></ul><ul><li>Since 1950’s, corps are larger than govts. </li></ul><ul><li>Over the last 40 years, top 5% and top 1% have gained major wealth while middle class has lost real wealth in most countries. </li></ul><ul><li>Scandinavia, Europe, Canada and Australia have all kept a lid on this, to varying degrees. </li></ul>Solutions: Govts: Trust busting, redistribution, progressive taxation. Corps: More transparency, lower exec. pay multipliers. Individuals: Buy goods from positive sum countries. (Scandinavia, Germany, Canada, Australia, etc.)
    33. 33. © 2011 Resil iency : An Evo Devo Value <ul><li>Problem: Disproportionate, Uneconomical , and Non-Rational Responses to Risks/Catastrophes. </li></ul><ul><li>9/11 and America’s ‘War On Terror’. </li></ul><ul><li>Big bailouts in Global Financial Crisis. </li></ul><ul><li>Ignoring the ideal solutions (efficiency, alternative energy) to Global Warming </li></ul><ul><li>Putting personal gain ahead of cost-benefit policy, and using emotions (fear) rather than evidence and proportionality. </li></ul>Solutions: Govts: Learn from biological immune systems . Corps: Take an evidence-based approach to risk mgmt. Individuals: Learn to save, self-insure, take personal responsibility, fail often, lightly, & learn from failures.
    34. 34. © 2011 Intell igence : An Evo Devo Value <ul><li>Problem: Lack of Enough Bottom-Up (Network and Individual) Intelligence vs. Top-Down (Govt and Corporate) Intelligence. </li></ul><ul><li>Learned helplessness vs. recognition of accelerating web and personal intelligence. </li></ul><ul><li>Giving away our personal freedom and power (growing the ‘Nanny State’). </li></ul><ul><li>Brand hypnotism, no accounting for the steep costs of bureaucracy and bigness. </li></ul>Solutions: Govts: Help power shift from hierarchies to networks. Corps: Lead online, empower networks & customers. Individuals: Be a digital activist. Improve the web, your online networks, and your digital self.
    35. 35. © 2011 Cooperation : A Developmental Value <ul><li>Problem: More Global Coop, but Less Ability and Desire to Form Strong, Diverse Communities Around our Unique, Local Values. </li></ul><ul><li>- Since 1920’s (mass consumption), we went from many unique immigrant subcultures, to one homogenized corporate culture. </li></ul><ul><li>Since 1950’s, mass and centralized media, + standardized and weakening education = withdrawal and apathy for local community, </li></ul>Solutions: Govts: Build local & state govts. Take power from feds. Corps: Work with, help your local govts and communities. Individuals: Use iTV, Facebook, Foursquare, Yelp. Local Mkts, Foods, Products, and Services. e-Voting!
    36. 36. © 2011 Sustainability : A Developmental Value <ul><li>Problem: Global CO2 Increase, and Lack of Sufficient Growth in Sustainable Energy Solutions. </li></ul><ul><li>- A trillion barrels of oil in the ground. Those who own it want to make $100 trillion. </li></ul><ul><li>No political or big corp support for energy sols. Must come from small co’s and public. </li></ul>Solutions: Govts: Efficiency is 90% of near term. German solar power sys (10%). Offshore floating wind (20%). Thorium mini-nuke plants (20%). Corps: Start efficiency initiatives, work w/ efficiency co’s. Individuals: Plant and keep alive 1-5 trees a year. Drip irrigation. Invest in efficiency co’s. Solar thermal & PV.
    37. 37. Universality : A Developmental Value We’re all heading toward Sweden, on our own unique paths (see <ul><li>Problem: We Don’t Notice the Development Going On All Around Us. </li></ul><ul><li>- Accelerating S&T. </li></ul><ul><li>Econ development. </li></ul><ul><li>Political development. </li></ul><ul><li>Social development. </li></ul><ul><li>Human development. </li></ul>Solutions: More STEM Educ. Tech Capacity focus More Dev. Studies Wake up!
    38. 38. Australia and AMP: An Outsider’s Perspective on Key Values Competition Build more meritocracy , not just bureaucracy. Comp. Intell.: Scour the world for solutions. Innovation Be digital innovators . Grow network and node (indiv.) intelligence vs. pyramids (corps & govts). Individuality Choose your own way. Don’t follow America. Be unique and diverse , whenever it makes sense. Positive Sumness Resil iency Intell igence Cooperation Sustainability Universality See and use developmental stages. Example: Earning > Saving > Investing > Retiring > Philanthropy I leave you to fill these out for yourself!
    39. 39. Discussion What do you think?
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