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Adaptation to a changing climate in the arab countries

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"Adaptation to a changing climate in the Arab countries"; a Presentation by Ms. Dorte Verner on Climate Change in the Arab Region. It was presented in a workshop held by Amman Institute in cooperation …

"Adaptation to a changing climate in the Arab countries"; a Presentation by Ms. Dorte Verner on Climate Change in the Arab Region. It was presented in a workshop held by Amman Institute in cooperation with the League of Arab States and the World Bank on Monday 24 October 2011

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  • 1. Towards aRegional Flagship Report October, 2011 Dorte Verner, Climate Change Coordinator, Mena Region, The World Bank (dverner@worldbank.org)
  • 2.  CC is the development challenge of our time, globally & in the Arab countries CC is a threat to poverty reduction and economic growth  May reverse many of the development gains made in recent decades This calls for action  We need to act now, act together, and act differently (World Bank, 2010)
  • 3. I. MENA Flagship report I. Objective and Outputs II. Process and Scope III. Preliminary findings IV. Next steps 3
  • 4. Current and projected climatevariability and Calls for climate change change adaptation to reduce the Increased Vulnerability negative impactsOther stresses, and build climate e.g.: resilient Increase in communities population, urbanizationand education in the Arab countries
  • 5.  Flagship Report:  Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab countries that provides: ▪ Information on climate change and consequences ▪ Practical guidance on adaptation to climate change for policymakers Documentary on the climate change impacts and adaptation options in selected Arab countries
  • 6.  We address the Arab region as a whole  In the IPCC reports the Arab world is split in 2 parts: North Africa (Africa Ch) & Arabian Peninsula (Asia Ch)
  • 7.  WB is producing the report in partnership with League of Arab States & with inputs from Arab countries: ▪ researchers, institutions, and governments Chapters are drafted by a lead & contributing authors from the region ▪ Summarize the literature in Arabic, French, and English ▪ Identify gaps and provide policy options Advisers from the region guide the process Talented young regional researchers are given an opportunity to contribute through face-to-face and web-based interactions Arab governments are invited to comment and contribute
  • 8. Chapter Tentative Title: 1 Climate Change and its Economic and Poverty Impacts 2 Ways Forward for Climatology in the Arab Region 3 Options to Reduce Water Stress 4 Improving Rural Livelihoods, Agriculture, and Food Security 5 Improving Urban Livelihoods & Living Conditions 6 Gendered Adaptation to a Changing Climate 7 Improving Health in a Changing Climate 8 A Country Model for Adaptation to a Changing Climate
  • 9.  THE FOLLOWING SLIDES SHOW PRELIMINARY FINDINGS AND MAY BE CHANGED AS WE FINALIZE THE REPORT
  • 10.  Climate change is happening now. In 2010 alone:  the warmest year since records began in the late 1800s ▪ Kuwait (52.6 C), Iraq & Saudi Arabia (52.0 C), Qatar (50.4 C) & Sudan (49.7 )  Arabian Sea experienced the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone on record ▪ Cyclone Phet peaked at Category 4 strength; ▪ Oman: killing 44 people & wreaking $700 M in damage  Coral reefs took the 2nd worse beating because of record summer ocean water temp
  • 11.  Over the recent decades throughout the region:  Temperatures increased by 0.2-0.3 C per decade  More frequent and intense heat waves  Less, but more intense rainfall, causing increased frequency of droughts and floods  Loss of winter precipitation storage in snow mass, inducing summer droughts & loss of winter snow and potentially in tourism  All threatening lives and crops & exposing new areas to vector borne diseases
  • 12.  Temperatures are likely to rise 0.3-0.4 C/decade  This is 1.5 times faster than the global average Most of North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean will become drier  Possible increases in rainfall southern Sudan, Djibouti and Yemen But greater variability and more extremes everywhere
  • 13.  Sea level rise  threatening river deltas, coastal cities, wetlands, and small island nations, i.e. Comoros and Bahrain  with storm surges, salinized water, and flooding  1.0 m sea level rise will affect 3.2% of the population in MENA – 3 times more than the global average
  • 14.  Climate adaptation strategies that people have exploited throughout history may no longer be available 2200 BC, a temporary climate shift created 300 years of reduced rainfall and colder temperatures that forced people to abandon their rainfed fields in NE Syria Now only option is move to urban areas, e.g. for the Bedu in the Arab countries
  • 15.  The poor are the most vulnerable because of their  high dependence on natural resources for their livelihoods  poverty status and level of education  geographic location and migrant status Climate change is superimposed on existing risks and vulnerabilities faced by poor;  Asset-poor Bedu in the arid areas of the Arabian Peninsula have few resources and little capacity to adapt to the changing climate  Their limited capacity to cope with climate extremes renders them vulnerable
  • 16.  The economies of Arab countries are projected to be more affected by CC as time passes  through CC at the national level & CC occurring in other countries  The estimation of potential economic impacts of CVC done by linking: ▪ the downscaling of selected GCMs, ▪ crop models ▪ global economic models, and ▪ subnational-level CGE with micro-simulation modeling Large near and long-term welfare reductions due to CC; measured by household incomes (HI) while taking into account autonomous adaptation, e.g.:  By 2020, HI projected reduced: Syria $527 M & Yemen $314.4 M  By 2050, HI projected reduced: Syria $3.4 B & Yemen $5.7 B
  • 17.  The number of drought years has increased & droughts are becoming more frequent  Avg drought reduce economic growth (GDP) by ~1 pp compared to non-drought year (CGE)  Food security worsens significantly during droughts and the poor are hit the hardest ▪ loss of capital, reduced incomes, and higher food prices ▪ poor farm households are most affected, followed by rural nonfarm and urban households ▪ poverty levels increase by 0.3-1.4 pp
  • 18.  Floods are becoming more frequent and induce heavy economic losses & spikes in food insecurity and hunger, e.g. in Yemen:  High magnitude flooding leads to loss of crop land, animals, and infrastructure, e.g. irrigation facilities and rural roads  Total income loss over 2008-12: 180% of pre-flood agricultural value added  Number of hungry people spiked 15 percentage points
  • 19.  Water scarcity is a constraint to socio-economic dev. Today there is already 16% renewable water supply gap  met by overexploiting renewable water resources, depleting groundwater and desalinating at high societal and environmental cost In 2050, the region will likely face a  10% reduction in water run off due to climate change  50% renewable water supply gap, hence water need to be e.g. imported; desalinated, etc. Water, km3 Renewable Water 500 16% 37% 51% Resources 400 Total Water Demand 300 % of demand unmet by 200 renewable 100 sources 0 year 2000-2009 2020-2030 2040-2050
  • 20.  The report repeatedly finds Jordan is an example of best practice regarding water resources management (Jordan Valley, etc)  Advanced grey water treatment and use  Effective tariff schemes  Support for private water suppliers  Water law enforcement force
  • 21.  But the water availability is one of the lowest in the world  163 m3 per capita, only Gulf states and Libya has less Climate modeling suggests that the important winter precipitation be cut in half by 2050 and temperatures will be 2C higher Jordan has successfully adapted to increasing demand for water in an arid environment until now, but an important question is: can Jordan continue to adapt in a changing climate?
  • 22.  Agricultural output could decrease 20-40% by 2080 due to high dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture 80% of the water goes to agricultural production  Increasing water scarcity will require more efficient or less agricultural water consumption  Climate resilient production calls for climate resilient crops, animals, trees and fish species, incl. drought & salt tolerant ones Stresses to local food production systems calls for increased import share to bridge the availability gap in most countries  Global food price rises, especially spikes, will decrease food access for vulnerable households=>Negative impact on rural livelihoods and incomes
  • 23.  Arab cou has higher Urbanization rates, % u.r. than rest of the 80 world 60 Majority of the 37,000 km of Arab 40 coastline are 20 developed and low- 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 lying coastal zones Arab World World Yemen UAE Tunisia Without basic services, residents of informal settlements have little capacity to adapt to environmental challenges and CC hazards CC vulnerability needs to be considered up front when making urban infrastructure decisions and investments
  • 24.  CC impacts men and women differently  Traditional gender roles e.g. imply that woman fetch water Data suggests women are among those least able to adapt because they  are often responsible for natural resource & hh management  often have limited participation in the decision-making process => smart climate policy is an inclusive process where men & women are empowered and take part in the decision making Women and Men Engaged in Agriculture, % of Economically Active Population (2004) 90 80 70 60 50 40 Women 30 Men 20 10 0 Algeria Djibouti Egypt Jordan Lebanon Morocco Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen
  • 25.  The Jordan is the first Arab country both to mainstream gender in adaptation policy and The national women’s strategy incorporates awareness of climate change and the linkages between gender, gender equality, and adaptation. However, women make up a small proportion of total landowners: 29 percent in Jordan (albeit higher than in all other Arab countries) Jordan is beginning from a leadership role but faces enormous problems. This calls for all youth, woman & men being involved in the decision-making process
  • 26.  Specifically malaria, dengue and other vector borne and waterborne diseases The most vulnerable to climate related diseases are:  internally displaced & those with low socio-economic status  residents of low lying areas and camps and slums  those who work outdoors, e.g. in construction Healthcare systems in most Arab countries are currently unable to provide well for the climate related health needs due to lack of data
  • 27.  An IPCC approach to drafting  January 2011: First workshop ▪ Identified links between the topic areas ▪ Developed annotated outline of the background paper for each chapter  March 2011: “Zero” drafts provided by Lead Authors ▪ Posted on Internet for public review and comments  June 2011: Second workshop: writing workshop ▪ Chapters were substantially improved ▪ Creation of mini-chapters on cross-cutting issues
  • 28.  July 2011: Authors provided a well-formed draft ▪ This draft form the basis of the preparation of the current 1st draft report October 2011: Draft to LAS & MoEs for comments ▪ The draft to be presented and discussed at the JCEDAR, LAS ▪ Consultations: Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia, and UAE (TBC) December: Cop17 side-event, e.g. with Gov. of Lebanon January 2012: Third workshop: ▪ Incorporating comments provided by the governments, etc. February/ March 2012: Finalize the report April 2012: Launch Report, Movie, Portal, ...
  • 29.  This consultation is an important part of the process of producing the report  It is your chance to contribute and comment on the current draft  Equivalent to IPCC’s Government and Expert Review stage The draft report will be up on the internet (web address in the flyer)  This is your change to let us know what you think about the report  Please read it and send us comments and suggestions for improvements  Thank you in advance.
  • 30.  Italian Development Cooperation European Union International Fund for Agricultural Development League of Arab States World Bank’s MENA Region & Environment Unit
  • 31. Thank You ‫ﺷﻛﺭﺍ‬