Automotive Innovation
in the
2009 Downturn
Sivam Sabesan
Technical Insight’s Industry Analyst,
Automotive & Transportation
April 8, 2009

The Auto Industry Today
Traditionally, the price and availability of fuel had a direct
influence on consumer vehicle choices.
Fuel security had ranked highest on critical factors that affected
global economies. Today the global recession is a more critical
factor.
Consumer confidence is the biggest influencer on car sales today.
As a result the global crisis has caused a huge drop in consumer
confidence and car sales.
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The Auto Industry Today
Nissan Racetrack converted into a parking lot
Source: Jalopnik.com
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The Auto Industry Today
Ford F-150s sit on a lot in
Dearborn, Michigan
Source: Jalopnik.com
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The Auto Industry Today – U.S. Figures
March 2009 Sales Figures:
Sales declined across the board
BMW sale the most modest decline of 22.9%
General Motors dropped by 44.7%
Ford 40.9% decline
Chrysler 39.3% decline
Toyota’s 39.0% decline
Nissan 37.7% decline
Honda 36.6% decline
Overall Sentiment: Low Consumer Confidence = Low Car Sales
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The Auto Industry Today - Global
Spain saw a 38.7% drop in sales
South Korea sales dropped by 18.8%
Japanese domestic market sales were down 25.3%
India, Germany and France saw an increase in domestic sales in
March
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Research Initiatives Today
Today’s research is seen broadly divided into the following areas:
Conventional:
Emission regulations compliance
Safety regulations compliance
Gas mileage improvement
Passenger comfort improvement
Alternate Propulsion:
Biofuels/alternative fuels in automobiles
Hybrid electric drivetrains
Electric drivetrains
Battery research
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Automotive Technology Trends Critical Drivers
Government Regulation
Changing Fuel Scenario Technology Environment
Consciousness
Adoption
Consumer Expectations
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Technologies with Immediate Impact
Volatile crude oil prices ranging from the mid $30s to $147 a
barrel cause products to became dated more quickly.
Companies loose market share rapidly when the commuter cars
they produce are sold when oil pieces are low and SUVs are
being sold when gas sales for $4 a gallon.
While a variety of technologies are being developed by the
automotive industry to meet short and long term needs, there are
already some technologies that are available and can provide
differentiation in the market with tangible benefits to the
consumer.
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Technologies with Immediate Impact
Engine Downsizing
Mild Hybrid Technology
Full Hybrid Technology
Battery Electric Vehicles
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Engine Downsizing
Maintaining performance while engine downsizing is critical
Downsizing replaces larger engines with smaller ones without
compromising performance
Downsizing technologies:
Combustion engineering approaches like HCCI
Turbo charging
Supercharging
New approach - hybrid electric drivetrain with a smaller than engine
and electric motor that assists
Methanol/water injection or nitrous oxide injection - have been seen
in racing and aftermarket usage, though mainstream usage
remains limited
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Engine Downsizing – Why is it Attractive?
A smaller engine has lower pumping losses
More fuel efficient at lower rpm
Lesser mass, translating to lower weight and raw material use
Improved suspension handling and fuel economy
Less material costs
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Engine Downsizing Complications
Downsized engines with their higher specific power will require
reinforced rotating components.
Engine blocks will need to be reinforced and in turn this may
affect choice of material for block and liner.
The higher state of tune also requires sophisticated electronic
control to ensure that detonation does not occur. Momentary lean
conditions if not handled properly can result in catastrophic
failure.
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Engine Downsizing – Common Technologies Used
Involves increasing the volumetric efficiency above 100%
Has volumetric efficiency of 150%, for instance, would make a
2000cc engine behave like a 3000cc engine
Turbocharging involves using wasted heat from the exhaust to
compress the incoming air
Supercharging uses power off the crankshaft to compress the
incoming air
Turbocharging and Supercharging have pros and cons
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Engine Downsizing - Homogeneous Charge Compression
Ignition
Combines the characteristics of both gasoline and diesel engines
Combustion initiates at several points automatically without any
spark ignition as is common in gasoline engines
The lower peak temperatures result in very low NOx emissions but
HC and CO are high
Provides diesel like efficiency with gasoline like emissions
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Engine Downsizing - Homogeneous Charge Compression
Ignition
Timing control in HCCI remains a major problem
Conventional engine designs with HCCI exhibit limited power range
A variety of approaches are being tried to overcome such restraints
found in early stages
Mercedes has demonstrated a ‘DiesOtto’ Concept and GM has
demonstrated versions of HCCI to journalists
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Engine Downsizing - Homogeneous Charge Compression
Ignition
Frost and Sullivan’s take on HCCI:
Extremely hard to implement in production units
Will match with requirements of hybrids
Extra efficiency achieved will probably be negated by a variety of
factors including a limited power range and heavier mass of the
engine (to cope with higher peak pressures)
Knock control needs to be foolproof or the engine can destroy itself in
a short amount of time
This is true for all engines, but HCCI has a higher propensity to
knocking if the control system should fail
Commercialization potential in the next five years – Very Low
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Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Hybrid Electric Vehicles use a combination of IC engine and electric
motor power for propulsion.
Electric motors provide good acceleration and also allow for
regenerative power.
IC engine can be sized for average load, not maximum load with the
electric motor used to improve performance.
Combination of battery power and engine operating at efficient rpm
makes for extremely frugal city driving.
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Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Hybrids are slowly moving into the mainstream from the
environmental conservative niche. Increases in oil prices have
accelerated adoption.
Hybrids are expensive.
Hybrids are more complicated than conventional vehicles. As they
move into the mainstream, these issues will slowly be sorted out.
There is high potential for mass commercialization. However,
consumer acceptance during the current low oil market is yet to be
seen. Heavy duty applications like hybrid tractor trailers will have a
high acceptance from fleets because of lower running costs.
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Electric Vehicles
Electric Vehicles are the simplest and most efficient form of
automotive transportation.
They predate the internal combustion engine, but EVs limiting factor
has always been energy storage.
In contrast with liquid fuel’s high energy density, electrical energy
storage has been limited by weight of batteries. (Flywheels are not
an option on automobiles).
Today’s Lithium-ion cells promise a new generation of automobiles
that are both light and energy dense.
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Electric Vehicles
A number of electric vehicles are being introduced into the market
Long term issues with electric vehicles still remain to be seen
Battery life, issues in weather extremes, range reductions are
factors that will impact the adoption of these vehicles
Battery research and recharging infrastructure are two ways to
significantly improve the practicality of electric vehicles
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Electric Vehicles
Current generation EVs will never be as affordable as conventional
vehicles, but EVs will get more affordable over time.
The mass commercialization potential is very high, especially in
segments like urban delivery vehicles where very low running costs
can result in a fast break even period.
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Technology Adoption Roadmap
Alternate fuels and combustion technologies
Technologies
Increased adoption of Hybrids and electric vehicles
Focus on fuel efficiency and tuning for ethanol, biodiesel
TIMELINE
Present 2010 2015 2020
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The View Forward
As a result of fluctuating oil prices, there will be a continuous focus on:
Energy efficiency technology for existing drivetrains
Alternate drivetrain technologies like electric and hybrid automobiles
Renewable fuels sources like ethanol and biodiesel
Hydrogen economy, though it remains more hype than hope
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The View Forward
Advances in engine technologies will come from technologies that
can quickly and affordably be brought into production. For
manufacturers to choose a particular technology, the return has to be
quick and the technology needs to be sufficiently mature.
Simple evolutionary changes or additional components are preferred
over radical changes in existing components. Some examples are a
Start/Stop system, waste heat generators and intelligent alternator
controls.
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The View Forward
Turbocharging and Supercharging are still the cheapest methods to
downsize and both will continue to improve.
Plug and Play technologies like the forced induction will be
preferred to advanced technologies that might require a costly
redesign of the whole engine.
An area to look for improvements is in better combustion
engineering – though control remains a problem.
When you have a higher state of tune, reliability and robustness
would have to be ensured.
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Conclusion
Remember the Wankel – Manufacturability Matters!
Historically, most technological advances have come from
individuals and small companies. Therefore, it is quite possible that
some of the biggest advances in tomorrow’s engines are not on
today’s radar.
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Next Steps
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