The Race to 2021: The State of Autonomous Vehicles and a "Who's Who" of Industry Drivers

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The race to self-driving vehicles is on! Altimeter, a Prophet Company’s principal analyst, Brian Solis, scoured the autonomous industry to assemble the most comprehensive report on “The State of The Autonomous Driving.” The report features the latest developments among companies driving the future, including 22 automakers and 34 HW/SW companies. This report will be updated regularly, if you would like to contribute updates please contact Brian via email at brian@altimetergroup.com.

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  • Great document. Thanks for putting this together. I was thinking of creating something similar.
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  • Really interesting compilation, Brian. Brilliant work indeed. Regarding Volvo, they are offering semi-autopilot features in newest models since 2015. Volvo XC90, S90 and V90 came with several safety features that really works as autonomous. For example, auto-parking, auto braking, and of course, auto-driving. I've tested Volvo XC90 with these features and you can literally forget about the traffic and make something else with your hands (and mind) while driving with this feature ON.
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  • This slide and the next look off-balance. Can we make the level headers larger? Also the Level 2 is flowed in wrong. If flowed in other way then Level 2 gets broken. ANSWER:
    See next hidden slide for that option. This also restricts the size of the headers.
  • This design really isn’t working for me, sorry. What about something more gears-looking like what Brian sent via email?
  • For ALL of these company slides, the logo is too flush with the margin and the body text. Let’s adjust them all so there’s more breathing room.
  • Something weird is happening between the word “currently” and the word “level” in the second paragraph.
  • Why do we not include logos in this section for each company?
  • The Race to 2021: The State of Autonomous Vehicles and a "Who's Who" of Industry Drivers

    1. 1. By Brian Solis PrincipalAnalyst Altimeter, a Prophet Company December 22, 2016 THE RACE TO 2021: THE STATE OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES AND A “WHO’S WHO” OF INDUSTRY DRIVERS
    2. 2. Executive Summary: State of Autonomous Vehicles For this market profile report, we examined the autonomous offerings of 22 auto manufacturers and 34 hardware and software providers. We uncovered the following insights and trends: • Semi-autonomous vehicles are the stepping stone to fully autonomous vehicles. Most car manufacturers and technology companies have taken Tesla’s lead and are offering features like self- parking, adaptive cruise control, emergency braking and semi-hands off driving in highway/interstate conditions. Semi-autonomous features help consumers become comfortable with the idea of robots taking the wheel. • Startups and technology leaders are driving accelerated innovation in autonomous technology; forcing incumbents to partner, acquire or ramp up R&D to compete (e.g. BMW and Baidu; Fiat Chrysler and Waymo, an Alphabet company; and GM and Lyft). Toyota, Intel and Mercedes-Benz have dedicated business units. Automakers are essentially getting into the software/ hardware and utility business as future profits will depend less on manufacturing, selling and financing automobiles and more on monetizing driving. • Luxury car manufacturers such as Jaguar Land Rover, Maserati and Porsche are looking to a future where the driver has an experiential role in autonomous vehicles. Cars will become platforms for passenger experience, creating a new canvas for cockpits and space. • In addition to data science, social science is becoming prevalent in autonomous development. Companies like Nissan and Audi take an anthropological approach to teach self-driving cars to act more human in their control and on-road actions (e.g. honking, signaling other people or vehicles, moving closer to lane markings before switching lanes).
    3. 3. • Startups like Comma. Ai, Mobileye and Delphi are offering their hardware/ software components as "plug and play" to manufacturers looking to append semi- and fully autonomous features and other machine learning components to their existing vehicle fleets to accelerate time to market. • Startups, tech leaders (such as Intel and Nvidia) and automakers are heavily investing in AI, machine learning and deep learning technologies. Each want autonomous cars to understand what’s happening around the vehicle, how to operate in a variety of scenarios and conditions and how to make safe and efficient mapping for paths forward, passenger comfort and safety of those in and outside the vehicle. • Mapping software has emerged as its own category among technology providers in the autonomous space, as 3D terrain mapping is a critical component to the effectiveness and safety of self-driving cars as they navigate their environments. • Carmakers will also become data companies, borrowing cues from Apple, Google and Facebook to convert data into insights and customize consumer services to deliver value-added experiences. Companies such as BMW i Ventures and Toyota Research Institute are already partnering with data startups such as Nauto to share driver data as a means of more rapidly improving autonomous vehicle systems.
    4. 4. • Most autonomous leaders are testing prototypes on the road in Silicon Valley, Austin, Pittsburgh and other metropoles, but Honda and Hyundai focus their autonomous vehicle testing in large-scale controlled environments that allow for pedestrian situation testing, high-speed loops and simulated cityscapes. • Progressive automakers are repositioning their future foci away from just “making cars” to becoming mobility services and sharing companies, i.e. BMW, Daimler, Fiat Chrysler, Ford, GM, Mercedes, Nissan, Tesla, VW, et al. To this trend, ride/hail companies are attracting investments from traditional automakers to develop next-generation autonomous services. Toyota Motor Corp invested an undisclosed amount of money in Uber, Volkswagen AG invested $300 million in Gett (a competitor of Uber and Lyft) and General Motors Co. acquired a stake in Lyft. • Autonomous vehicles, to varying extents, are already operating in vertical applications; such as warehouse/ inventory management, farming and construction. Uber, Tesla and Mercedes-Benz are also experimenting with other applications of self-driving technologies in city busses and semi-trucks.
    5. 5. The Five Levels of Autonomous Driving
    6. 6. The Five Levels of Autonomous Driving Level 0: Zero Automation - Driving As Usual A human driver is required to operate the vehicle safely. • Driver in full control • Eyes on the road • Hands-on the wheel • Foot on the acceleration pedal/brake Level 1: Driver Assisted/Function-Specific - Intelligent features add layer of safety and comfort A human driver is required for all critical functions. The car can alert the driver to conditions, environment and obstructions. It can also offer assisted/smart performance and driving capabilities. • Driver in full control • Eyes on the road • Hands-on the wheel (relief offered in certain modes) • Foot on the acceleration pedal/brake (relief offered in certain modes) Vehicle aids driver Level 2: Partial Automation/Combined Autonomous Functions - Key automated capabilities become standard but driver in control At least two simultaneous autonomous tasks are managed by the vehicle in specific scenarios. • Driver in control • Eyes on the road • Hands-on the wheel or ready to be on the wheel in cruise control mode • Foot on the acceleration pedal/brake or ready in cruise control mode Vehicle in partial, temporary control (fixed scenarios) Level 3: Conditional Automation/Limited Self-Driving - The car becomes a co-pilot The vehicle manages most safety-critical driving functions in known (mapped) environmental conditions. A human driver is still present and expected to manage vehicle operation. • Driver in partial control • Eyes temporarily off the road but still observant • Hands-off the wheel in specific scenarios but at the ready • Foot off the acceleration pedal/brake but at the ready Vehicle in conditional control (known environments)
    7. 7. Level 4: High Automation - Capable of performing all safety-critical driving functions while monitoring environments/conditions in defined use cases Per NHTSA, this is full self-driving automation. Per SAE, Self- driving is fully possible in most road conditions and environments without need of human intervention. A functional driver cockpit is still in place (steering wheel, brake/acceleration pedal, etc.). • Driver becomes passenger but can assume control • Eyes off the road • Hands-off the wheel • Foot off the acceleration pedal/brake Vehicle in control (once input is provided and in most situations) Level 5: Fully Autonomous - Vehicle is completely driverless No level 5 per NHTSA. Per SAE, full-time automated driving in all conditions without a human driver. These vehicles will not feature driving equipment and will no longer look like the vehicles of the past. • No driver Vehicle in control
    8. 8. That’s the year auto manufacturers have promised fully autonomous vehicles on the road. Depending on who you follow, 2021 (or 2020) is either overly optimistic or cautiously conservative. Either way, it’s clear that startups and incumbents are racing toward a self- driving future with press and media documenting every mile-marker. What remains unclear is when––and to what extent––autonomous vehicles will arrive on the roads, and how consumers and commercial industries will adopt progressing levels of autonomy over time. With the increasing level of activity in the autonomous space and more companies, products and partnerships expected to enter, mapping the ecosystem proves a complex and ongoing commitment. In our attempt to keep pace with the frequency of press announcements in the space, it became clear that distributed information is rarely accessible in a centralized, public manner. This report serves as a comprehensive primer for those monitoring the state of autonomous vehicle development. It offers an introduction to key players, organized by industry sector, to outline initial and evolving applications for consumer markets and verticals. This report will be updated at key intervals when significant announcements are made or milestones are achieved.
    9. 9. Get Out Of My Dreams and Into My [Self-Driving] Car Self-driving cars have always stoked our imaginations. From movies to cartoons to advertisements, autonomous vehicles portray a life only possible in science fiction or a dream to be realized off in the distant future. Though our “Jetsons” or “Minority Report” moment is forthcoming, autonomous capabilities have been arriving in increments. With each new invention, science fiction is transformed into reality, one chapter at a time. Today, aspects of self-driving cars are making their way into new models with the introduction ofintelligent, driver-assisted features that are slowly bridging the gap between semi- and fully-autonomous abilities. This is years in the making. The race to self-driving vehicles is as much about advancing technology as it is about innovating infrastructure and support. Beyond sensors, cameras and processing, everyday elements of driving must advance. From lanes and lights, to signs and obstructions, to rules and regulation, government, cities and manufacturers must also improve to protect people inside and outside the car. All of this needs to rapidly evolve to keep up with autonomous technologies and capabilities. Like any new technology, prices initially appeal to specialized industries like transportation and deliveries, as well as individual consumers willing to spend big. Eventually, semi- and fully-autonomous vehicles will be offered in shared and owned formats for almost everyone to enjoy. Autonomous technology will ultimately change the entire automotive industry, supporting ecosystems and supply chains.
    10. 10. Let’s consider ownership, financing and insurance. Data shows that on average, cars are parked 95% of the time. With such downtime, traditional ownership could be considered obsolete. Shared or rental models now become more economically feasible. Users could simply summon the car on- demand or based on algorithmic patterns of need. As such, automotive financing may now shift from programs for individual ownership to shared ownership models. Or, if companies like Uber successfully transition to the self-driving economy, service providers would assume vehicle leasing/financing programs to offer personalized autonomous driving services. As new ownership scenarios play out, insurance and maintenance industries will also needto productize new solutions to various stakeholders. Cars will be able to drive themselves to dealership services. And, because many self-driving cars will be catering to different stakeholders, insurance companies will stabilize potential losses in traditional income with modern, scenario-based premiums. Open the door, buckle up and enjoy the ride as we explore the autonomous ecosystem. There’s a lot of to see, so think of each section as a vista point. And, don’t worry, there are rest stops along the way. “To finish the moment, to find the journey’s end in every step of the road, to live the greatest number of good hours, iswisdom.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson
    11. 11. Autonomous Driving Applications v1.0
    12. 12. AUTOMAKERS
    13. 13. Audi has revealed a series of autonomous vehicleprototypes, including consumer-oriented test vehicles, based on its A7 and RS7 models. Audi is working on plans to bring its“Audi Piloted Driving” to market in its next-generation flagship model A8. Initially, the A8 will have the ability to park itself and drive autonomously up to 37 mph. Audi is also working on expediting a fully autonomous vehicle program. In July 2016, Audi announced a dedicated subsidiary devotedto developing autonomous driving technology, called SDS Company. Similar to Nissan’s anthropological approach to making autonomous driving more human, Audi has been teaching its robotic vehicles to drive more like humans in an effort to make them safer on the roads. For example, the car will move closer to lane markings before signaling that it is about to changelanes. Additionally, it will offer larger vehicles a wider space when passing. When another car aims to merge into its lane, thevehicle will either speed up or slow down to let them in. Engineers believe that this approach will help ease driver anxiety toward embracing autonomous vehicles over time while also behaving “normally” on the road as to not disrupt the everyday patterns of other drivers.
    14. 14. BMW is actively pursuing an autonomous strategy. At CES 2016, it introduced an autonomous concept of its i8 wonder car. The company also announced that its autonomous strategy would be run as part of its BMW iNEXT initiative, a shift from its BMW i EV sub-brand. In 2014, BMW forged a strategic R&D partnership withChinese search engine Baidu. Additionally, BMW is developing a range of autonomousvehicles with different levels of human and machine control. BMW also announced a partnership with Intel and Israeli tech firm Mobileye, with plans to create an open standards-based platform. As a result, BMW hopes, by 2021, to introduce a fleet of fully autonomous vehicles that will drive on both highways and in urban environments. BMW received permission from the California Department of Motor Vehicles to test driverless cars on public streets. BMW expects a steering wheel and pedals toremain in fully self- driving vehicles, as an option for the driver to take control as needed/ wanted.
    15. 15. Faraday Future, a California-based startup company, primarily funded by Chinese billionaire Jia Yueting and his LeEco tech company, is aiming to market high-performance, autonomous electric cars. Faraday’s initial model unveiled at CES 2016 is a race-car inspired FFZero1. Sneak peeks of the latest model, set for launch at CES 2017 with plans to start building in 2018, were also teased from the company’s Twitter account in early December. Interesting features speculated based on the images include replacement of side-view mirrors with cameras and a retractable Lidar sensor. In June 2016, Faraday Future received approval to test self- driving vehicles on California roads at the end of the year. Spy photographers reported in August 2016 that the company was testing autonomous equipment in California using a Lincoln MKZ sedan. The future of Faraday is reportedly in flux though, as cash shortages, unpaid construction payments, missed shipping deadlines and staff departures have plagued the startup since October. Still, according to Business Insider, Faraday Future is going ahead with its electric car unveiling in January at CES.
    16. 16. Even though Google (Alphabet) isn’t expected to enter the automobile manufacturing space, the company announced a deal with Fiat Chrysler to testChrysler Pacificaminivans as itsfirst automotive partner for its self-driving technology. Fiat Chrysler hasn’t publicized any formal internal development, but partnering with Googleoffersbenefitsforbothcompanies. Forone, Fiat Chrysler introduceda differenttype of modelinto thespace,onethatboastsadditional passengerroom over its competitorsandalso automateddoors.Thisis important in a future of autonomousvehicle sharing and “taxis” because therewill be circumstanceswhen passengersforgetto closethedoor upon exiting. Without human intervention, self-driving vehicles would become temporarily immobilized without automated features. ForAlphabet (now spinning its driverless car efforts into a new company, Waymo), the partnershippresentsan opportunity to scaleits software andwith thehelp of automotive expertise, help it meet federal regulations.Also, mass produce its technologyin market-ready, consumer-orientedvehicles. At a Google press conference in December 2016, the company officiallydebutedWaymo.Priorto theevent,Bloomberg published a reportthat WaymoandFiat Chrysler may be planning to launcha ridesharingservice, expected to launchbeforetheendof 2017.
    17. 17. In early 2015, Ford announced its “Smart Mobility Plan,” which lead to the formation of Ford Smart Mobility, LLC., a subsidiary focused on connectivity, autonomous vehicles and mobility (e.g. car- and ride-sharingservices). In August 2016, Ford boldly planted an autonomous flag into the foundation of the company’s future. By 2021, Ford CEO, Mark Fields, declared the company would launch a fleet of commercial, “Level 4” autonomous vehicles for use in ride-hail services. Level 4 refers to the state of self-drivability; and in this case, Ford’s initial vehicles will be one level below a completely autonomous system. Although the company did say that the cars would be fully driverless vehicles without steering wheels or pedals. Ford has touted significant breakthroughs in difficult driving conditions after testing its autonomous program in snow and complete darkness. Ford’s foray into the autonomous world is aided by its acquisition of Israel-based machine learning firm SAIPS, and also through strategic investments in 3D mapping startup Civil Maps. Ford and Chinese search engine company Baidu Inc., which has also invested in Uber, are investing $150 million in Velodyne, a company that makes the laser sensors that help guide self-driving cars.
    18. 18. This move toward“self-driving cars as a service” is expected to become a notable and growing revenue generatorfor Ford over the comingyears. In November 2016, Ford announced a partnership with BlackBerry’s QNX platform, moving it into Tier One supplier status.This is important, as “Tier One status is widely viewed as the most importantmember of the automotive supply chain. QNX’s operating system is certified for use in autonomous cars and will help Ford enhance its autonomous R&D and also accelerate competition with Tesla and Google.
    19. 19. General Motors has made aggressive moves in autonomous and ride-sharing fronts. In January 2016, the company purchased Sidecar’s assets, an early but now defunct competitor to Uber and Lyft. Additionally, GM reportedly paid upward of $1 billion for Cruise Automation, an up-and-coming start-up that promised to transform any vehicle into one that is fully autonomous. GM then invested $500 million in Lyft to develop a driverless ride-hailing service. With GM as manufacturer, Cruise Automation as the autonomous enabler and Lyft as the logistics operator, GM is already piloting ride-hailing programs in Austin, Texas, Phoenix and soon in Washington. Its first publicly available self-driving car will be the Chevy Bolt, an all- electric, long-range vehicle currently being tested as part of its Lyft pilot program. Currently, GM is testing 40 autonomous Bolts at its Technical Center campus in Warren, Mich. and on public roads in San Francisco and Scottsdale. GM’s CEO Mary Barra also sees self-driving cars changing our driving (transit) behaviors similar to that of passengers on trains, ferries and airplanes. "Whether it's a second office or entertainment, I think there are a lot of new opportunities when you have that person in the vehicle," Barra told Business Insider.
    20. 20. Looking in-house, GM also developed semi-autonomous Super Cruise technology. GM will introduce Super Cruise in high-end Cadillac models in 2017, initially offering a Tesla-like autonomous experience that allows drivers to commute in a semi-hands off capacity. The technology also features facial recognition that alerts distracted or drowsy drivers through a combination of lights, vibrations, audible warnings and eventually an OnStar representative. If the driver remains too hands-off, the vehicle will pull itself over, stop and flash hazard lights. General Motors CEO Mary Barra announced on December 15, 2016 that the automaker will begin testing self-driving vehicles on public roads in Michigan. Recently, Michigan Governor Rick Snyder signed a package of bills that legalizes operation of autonomous vehicles. The goal is to bring the spotlight back to Michigan as the beacon of automotive innovation. Additionally, Barra also announced that the Orion Township assembly plant will produce its autonomous test vehicles in early 2017. This is the same plant where the all-electric Chevrolet Bolt is produced. “We expect GM will become the first high-volume auto manufacturer to build fully autonomous vehicles in a mass production assembly plant,” Barra said during a press conference. GM is only ramping up its self-driving efforts. The company also detailed plans to hire 700 engineers in Canada focused on autonomous vehicle software and controls development, safety technology, infotainment and connected vehicle technology. http://www.businessinsider.com/gms-mary-barra-interview-2016-12?op=1 http://fortune.com/2016/12/15/gm-self-driving-cars-michigan/
    21. 21. Honda is taking a different approach to its autonomous program than others we’ve covered. In early 2016, the company debuted an affordable $20,000 semi-autonomous model of its Civic LX Sedan. Similar to Tesla and Mercedes-Benz models, the Civic will feature advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) which offers lane keeping and changing assistance, automatic braking and adaptive cruise control. Honda also took over a Naval base and turned it into the “GoMentum Station,” which serves as the testing ground for its autonomous fleet. Whereas BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo/Uber, GM/Lyft and the like have been granted permission to test drive autonomous vehicles in Silicon Valley, Nevada and Austin. Honda has private, self-contained access to 20 miles of everyday road types, intersections and infrastructure that emulate the real world. It also has the ability to change the roads and environments to simulate driving conditions in other countries. The company recently demonstrated its modified Acura RLX “Automated Drive” vehicle in a variety of scenarios including one with pedestrians crossing the street and a mannequin situated in the middle of the road. The target date for Honda’s autonomous vehicle is 2020.
    22. 22. Hyundai is ramping up autonomous vehicle development on multiple fronts, led by the Hyundai-Kia America Technical Center in Ann Arbor, Mich. Similar to Fiat Chrysler, the company is partnering with Google as an autonomous platform to develop a self-driving car and accelerate time to market. Additionally, Hyundai is moving into an abandoned bomber factory complex outside Detroit, which is available for use by automakers and suppliers to work on autonomous and connected-car technologies. This complements Hyundai’s course in the California desert that gives it access to high-speed loops and simulated cityscapes. Hyundai is also introducing in its G90 flagship sedan introductory semi-autonomous features such as adaptive cruise control, lane-keeping assistance, emergency braking, pedestrian detection, active blind-spot detection and additional technologies to “reduce driver fatigue.”
    23. 23. Similar to other driving experience-centric automobile manufacturers such as Maserati, Mazda, Nissan, Porsche and the like, Jaguar Land Rover isn’t the most enthusiastic about self-driving cars taking all the fun away from drivers. Instead, the company is collecting data to understand how to make self-driving cars more human. For starters, it launched a research fleet of 100 cars to test drive a 41-mile route in central England. “Customers are much more likely to accept highly automated and fully autonomous vehicles if the car reacts in the same way as the driver,” said Dr. Wolfgang Epple, director of research and technology at Jaguar Land Rover. “By understanding and measuring positive driving behaviors, we can ensure that an autonomous Jaguar or Land Rover of the future will not simply perform a robotic function.” The data is also intended to help inform insurance policies. For example, insurance experts will have the ability to assess liability in particular scenarios based on real-world driving data supplied by the test fleet.
    24. 24. Inside Silicon Valley, many credit Google with pioneering self- driving vehicles. Outside of Silicon Valley, many cite John Deere as helping to accelerate the self-driving vehicle revolution. Technically speaking, John Deere is the largest operator of autonomous vehicles––albeit, farming vehicles and tractors. While not as technically advanced as many of the current self- driving automobiles in development, John Deere has been marketing autonomous tractors and equipment for more than 15 years. Initially, the company used satellite technology to help farmers plot courses for tractors to drive automatically. Because these vehicles operate in fields, the threat to road safety is under the same scrutiny as automakers. As a result, the path of least resistance for self-driving technology was the farm. Currently technologies still require a driver, but fully autonomous farm vehicles are coming. John Deere isn’t alone in this space. Case IH is considered a primary competitor along with lesser known companies. Autonomous Tractor Corporation (ATC) markets eDrive and AutoDrive retrofit kits that offer the ability to safely take over navigation and control. The industry as a whole is prototyping vehicles that will continue to innovate and plow toward thefuture.
    25. 25. California-based Lucid Motors, founded in 2007, will finally break ground in 2017 in Arizona, building a $700 million factory to produce a new line of electric vehicles. The company was anearly pioneer in advanced lithium-ion battery technology. Former Tesla executive Peter Rawlinson, now Lucid’s chief technology officer, is moving the company toward a high-performance marketwith a 1,000-horsepower vehicle with an expected range of 400miles per charge. The prototype is said to follow Tesla’s lead in that it will include self-driving capabilities. In a November 2016 press event, Rawlinson revealed that self-driving is in the car’s DNA, “We’re very mindful of this new paradigm of shared mobility and autonomy and we’re designing for that right from the core.” The vehicle is said to feature ultrasonic sensors, longshore range cameras and radar, and a full set of LIDARs. Rawlinson said that in the near-term there are no plans to remove the steering wheel out of the car. Instead, Lucid seeks to blend autonomy with driver enthusiasm, stating, “We’ll have a clearly autonomous ready system pending legislative freedom and partnership with a software supplier. I can see us becoming ready as soon as it’s possible, but it’s probably not going to happen until 2019, early ’20.”
    26. 26. Like Jaguar Land Rover, Mazda sees a role for the driver in the future of autonomous vehicles. In January 2016, Mazda CEO, Masamichi Kogai, explained why the company is not working on an autonomous program, “It’s not just getting from point A topoint B. Our mission is to provide the essence of drivingpleasure.” But later in 2016, Mazda would change course. In Spring 2016, North American Chief Executive Masahiro Moro explained that Mazda would take a human-centric approach to autonomous driving. In an interview with Motoring.com.au, he explained, “I think autonomous driving is an important technology, but how we deploy and how we use that technology is different from a leading company… Autonomous driving technology helps if anything happens with the driver, he becomes unconscious or is feeling bad or so on. Then the technology of autonomous driving will override to pull over or go home. So this is the way we will use autonomous driving technology — still a human- centric approach.” Over the coming years, the company plans on releasing semi- autonomous technology features to augment safety and comfort, such as emergency braking, radar-based adaptive cruise control, lane monitoring, etc.
    27. 27. Mercedes-Benz was an early adopter of disruptive technologies, signaled by its opening of an R&D center in Silicon Valley in 1995. Officially operating as The Mercedes- Benz Research & Development North America (MBRDNA), the facility employs about 150 full-time digital designers, researchers and engineers running prototypes. Among many things, the company is working on apps, infotainment, autonomous driving and battery technology. When it comes to autonomous innovation, the company has actively experimented with its S500 Intelligent Drive program for quite some time. It is a fully autonomous experiment on wheels, legally driving around sanctioned streets in Silicon Valley— with lead and chase vehicles guiding it, of course. However, its long-term investment has it ahead of the pack and arguably made its technology a worthy rival of Tesla’s Autopilot and self- driving innovation. At CES 2016, Mercedes-Benz debuted the Intelligent Drive E- Class. The company demonstrated both fully- and semi- autonomous features on a 70-mile stretch in the Nevada desert.
    28. 28. Mercedes launched an autonomous bus in July 2016 with “CityPilot,” which the company claims is, “a milestone on the way to the autonomous city bus, and a revolutionary mobility system for the future.” CityPilot is a software platform for autonomous driving in urban public transport. CityPilot, in tests, already recognizes traffic lights, obstacles (especially pedestrians on the road) and can brake autonomously. It also approaches bus stops automatically and opens and closes its doors for passengers.
    29. 29. Mitsubishi demonstrated a self-driving car concept in October 2015. The video showed a vehicle navigating a test track without a driver, maneuvering through tight turns andobstacles difficult for human drivers. The concept uses satellite data and high definition 3D mapping to navigate roads. The video also highlighted the ability to “remote” park itself with the driver standing outside the car. The company hopes to introduce a self-driving car in 2020. Current reports cite that Mitsubishi is adapting technologies originally developed by Mitsubishi Electric Corp. for military use (e.g. millimeter-wave radars, sonars, sensors and cameras–– some used to guide missiles) to help self-driving cars detect obstacles and avoid collisions. Bloomberg spoke to Katsumi Adachi, Senior Chief Engineer at Mitsubishi’s automotive division. In the interview,Adachi explained the company’s unique approach, “All we have to dois to put together the components that we already have. None of our competitors have such a wide array ofcapabilities.”
    30. 30. Beginning this year, Nissan is rolling out semi-autonomous features in phases, as part of its “Propilot” system. The first phase will introduce assisted steering and braking on highways. By 2018, Nissan will introduce a multi-lane navigation function similar to what is available on current Tesla and certain Mercedes-Benz models. In 2020, it plans to add the capability for vehicles to navigate city driving and intersections without driver intervention. By that time, the Renault-Nissan Alliance plans to launch more than 10 models with advanced autonomous driving functionalities in the United States, Japan, Europe and China.
    31. 31. Researchers from Nissan and NASA are concurrently working on autonomous driving systems and human- machine interface projects over the next five years. The goal is to develop software that can be used in both cars and planetary rovers. Nissan is also taking a human-centered approach to autonomous driving by hiring Melissa Cefkin, principal scientist and design anthropologist at the Nissan Research Center in Silicon Valley. As a corporate and design anthropologist who specializes in ethnography, she studies people and cultures from the viewpoint of the subject. In the case of autonomous vehicles, Cefkin takes a fresh look at how humans interact with “a deeply and profoundly cultural object,” in this case the car, to gain insights into how new technologies might interpret or act on those behaviors. Additionally, Cefkin’s work in analyzing human driving interactions helps the company ensure that its autonomous fleet is prepared to be a “good citizen” on the road.
    32. 32. Porsche’s CEO Oliver Blume famouslytold a German newspaper that Porschehad no plans to build a self-driving car. “One wants to drive a Porsche by oneself,”said Blume to Westfalen-Blatt. “An iPhone belongs in your pocket, not on theroad.” At the Paris Motor Show in September 2016, Porsche unveiled its Tesla-rivalling Mission E, with plans to hit the marketin 2020. Speaking to AutoExpress, Blume confirmed that future Porsche models will indeed offer autonomous features. However, a fully autonomous vehicle is not planned. In the interview, he maintained that the ability for owners to enjoy driving their car is essential. He also provided examples where a driver may choose to read a newspaper while stuck in a trafficjam or prefer to have the vehicle be able topark itself remotely.
    33. 33. The Frenchmultinationalmanufacturerof Peugeot, Citroen and DS announced thatLevel 2 driverassistance systems would be available by 2018 and fully autonomous vehicles by 2021. In the short-term, vehicles will featurean intelligent systemthatcan assumecontrolfrom the driverif it detects anylapsein attentiondue to fatigueor inattentionto reducetheriskof an accident.PSAGroupCEO CarlosTavares warnedin 2016 that he was unsure that automobile manufacturers could profit from autonomous cars by the early 2020s “becauseof thehugeamountof technologyyou need to maketheseproductsdrivesafely,” he explained. In April 2016, PSA Group successfully road-tested two Citroën C4 Picasso autonomous vehicles in level 3 “eyes off” mode for more than 300 kilometers between Paris andAmsterdam. This was done without driver interaction but instead supervision, requiring the driver to solely verify that the systems are functioning properly. Since then, the company has grown to four Citroën C4 Picasso demonstrators on the road, traveling more than 60km autonomously, and 10 autonomous test vehicles in total. PSAGroup is also working with the System-X and Vedecom research institutes, and the CTAG automotive centre of Galicia in Spain to ensure safe operations between drivers and self-driving cars. The PSA Group became the first carmaker in July 2015 to obtain the necessary approvals to test its self- driving cars on the open road in France.
    34. 34. Subaru is working toward fullyautonomous vehicles by introducing significant driver- assist features along the way. One of the company’s most advanced features currently available is its EyeSight system. EyeSight monitors traffic and driving activity to assist with a variety of safety and comfort features, ranging from cruise control to active braking, to lane monitoring. EyeSight will act as the core of the company’s semi-autonomous efforts with its next driver aid feature focusing on traffic jam assist. The car will drive itself in start/stop situations up to 40mph initially with the ability to also follow curves. By 2020, Subaru said it will introduce a semi-autonomous driving function for highway driving. That system will allow automated lane changing and automated steering around curves.
    35. 35. Tesla CEO Elon Musk believes that any car that’s not autonomous in the near future is obsolete. In a call with Wall Street analysts in 2015, he famously asserted, “Any cars that are being made that don’t have full autonomy will have negative value. It will be like owning a horse. You’re really owning it for sentimental reasons.” Tesla has been among the more aggressive of the bunch, and is one of the primary reasons we are seeing so many announcements in 2016. Tesla was the first to unlock its hidden, innovative and also controversial Autopilot feature that set the world abuzz.
    36. 36. In Autopilot’s current adaptation, the car can assume control of steering, braking and switching lanes, but it does so with the full expectation that the driver will be at the ready to take over if necessary. This doesn’t stop people from pushing the boundaries of what’s responsible though, with some drivers napping or moving to the back seat to test or show-off the feature. Unfortunately, in July 2016, the first fatality occurred in a self-driving car, when a Tesla Model S plowed into a semi-truck that made a turn in front of the vehicle. Autopilot was engaged at the time of impact, and the vehicle did not “see” the white truck against a bright, white sky in time to stop. Since the accident, Tesla and Mobileye have severed ties. On Sept. 11, Tesla unveiled a planned upgrade to Autopilot with enhanced software to utilize the radar system on its vehicles to better see surroundings and road conditions. While the vehicle isn’t fully autonomous yet, Tesla has done the most work introducing the world of self-driving features⎯and, it’s helping drive Tesla demand in the process. Currently considered “Level 2” autonomous technology, Tesla Autopilot requires drivers to be engaged. The company stunned the automotive industry yet again on October 19 when it announced that all Model S, X, and 3 vehicles will ship standard with all necessary hardware and software for an eventual fully-autonomous mode. While the capability will be turned off for now, Tesla will introduce features over time as it, and government regulations, deem them safe. In July 2016, Elon Musk also revealed plans to explore Tesla Semi development to bring electric trucks to market. In his “Master Plan, Part Deux,” Musk wrote, “We believe the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport, while increasing safety and making it really fun to operate.” It’s widely speculated that its heavy-duty trucks will feature specialized versions of its Autopilot technology used in its current line-up of vehicles.
    37. 37. Toyota announced the creation of the Toyota Research Institute (TRI) in January 2016, a $1 billion investment in AI to develop autonomous driving capabilities. The company is taking a human approach, literally, to machine development. Toyota is studying human drivers to teach cars how to drive themselves. In an interview with BusinessInsider, head of data at TRI JimAdler shared his perspective on a human approach to self-driving: “Humans are very good drivers. If you look at the fatality rate, it’s like one death in 100 million miles driven. That’s humbling. We need to learn from drivers. If you look at how machines are trained, they’re not trained by rules. They’re trained by example.” Additionally, Toyota has pledged $1 billion to a university-led program dedicated to studying artificial intelligence, robotics, and reducing driver fatalities. The company has invested in three research partnerships to date, including the University of Michigan, Stanford in Palo Alto and MIT in Cambridge. The company has also acqui-hired the entire staff of Jaybridge robotics, a smallMassachusetts-based autonomous-vehicle company. Toyota, like other manufacturers, is diversifying its investments. The company, which has also invested in Uber, along with the Japan Federation of Hire-Taxi Associations, announced a groupto collaborate on the development of future taxicabtechnologies.
    38. 38. Volvo announced in 2016 that it joined forces with AutolivInc., a supplier of vehicle safety systems, to build new software for autonomous drive systems and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). Volvo plans to sell a self-driving vehicle to consumers in five years. The company will sell autonomous vehicles with a steering wheel, but consumers can pay upward of $10,000 extra for a full autopilot system where the car will be able to drive itself. Volvo is testing cars on public roads in Sweden and plans to expand public tests in London and China in 2018. Concurrently, Volvo is working with Uber, who together are contributing a combined $300 million to the project. As part of the agreement, the companies will co-developautonomous technology with vehicles going into Uber’s self-driving service and also becoming part of Volvo’s fleet for consumer ownership. The duo began piloting self-driving Volvo SUVs for Uber pickups in Pittsburgh earlier this year.
    39. 39. Volkswagen is admittedly a late-comer to the autonomous party. In an Economic Times interview, Digital Chief Johann Jungwirth voiced the company’s commitment to innovation, “We have a massive need to now work with thesame passion for detail and the same focus on software and services as on hardware (cars).” Through its Audi brand,the company is developing a fully self-driving car rather than introducing incremental semi-autonomous features (see Audi profile, earlier in this report). As a result, VW will “massively expand” its presence in Silicon Valley according to Jungwirth. Furthermore, VW is planning acquisitions in the market for new transportation technologies and services. Recently, VW invested $300 million in ride-hailing company Gett, which competes with Uber and Lyft.
    40. 40. DRIVERLESS HARDWARE & SOFTWARE
    41. 41. 5G Automotive Association Audi, BMW and Daimler banded together with Ericsson, Huawei, Intel, Nokia and Qualcomm in September 2016 to form the 5G Automotive Association. The group will “develop, testand promote communications solutions, support standardization and accelerate commercialavailability and global market penetration,” the founders said in astatement. One of the primary goals for the group is to accelerate the deployment of 5G technology and infrastructure to support a more capable wireless network to support autonomousdriving.
    42. 42. Apple Apple is currently working on Project Titan, which speculation and topline research indicates may be an operating system for autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street Journal stated that there were at least “several hundred”Apple employees working on the project.Apple recently hired Dan Dodge,who previously founded QNX, anoperating system company BlackBerry acquired in2010. In early 2016, Apple also opened a research and development center in the Ottawa suburb Kanata, across the street from the QNX headquarters. There have significant rumors thatApple has previously worked on, or still is, an electric and/or autonomousvehicle. Apple offered a clue into its autonomous plans inNovember 2016 when the company submitted a letter to the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The company’s Director ofProduct Integrity Steve Kenner wrote in the letter:
    43. 43. “Apple uses machine learning to make its products and services smarter, more intuitive, and more personal. The company is investing heavily in the study of machine learning and automation, and is excited about the potential of automated systems in many areas, including transportation.” The letter appears to focus on allowing “new entrants” to have the “same opportunity” to data sharing and public road testing as “established manufacturers,” “without pursuing exemptions.” Doing so would give Apple, as well as startups, an accelerated path to market that promotes fairness among newcomers and incumbents.As Kenner describes in the letter: “Apple agrees that companies should share de-identified scenario and dynamics data from crashes and near-misses. Data should be sufficient to reconstruct the event, including time-series of vehicle kinematics and characteristics of the roadway and objects. By sharing data, the industry will build a more comprehensive dataset than any one company could create alone. This will allow everyone in the industry to design systems to better detect and respond to the broadest set of nominal and edge-case scenarios.” Whatever it is, the project isn’t expected to hit the market until at least 2021.
    44. 44. Baidu Chinese search giant Baidu has been working on autonomous vehicles since 2013. One of the company’s key partners is BMW, as noted earlier in our report. In December 2015, a modified 3-Series BMW autonomously drove an 18.6-mile route around Beijing. Powered by the “Baidu Brain,” a system that brings together high-precision mapping, positioning, sensing and big data processing. In June, Baidu introduced its official plans for the mass production of driverless vehicles by 2021. Similar to Mercedes, the company also announced that it will develop autonomous bus and tourist shuttle services with set routes with the full support of the Chinese government.
    45. 45. Bosch Bosch is one of the world’s largest automotive suppliers and currently has more than 2,000 engineers dedicated to driver-assistancesystems. Bosch currently works with Google, Porsche, and Tesla. It was recently revealed that Bosch and Tesla have two fully autonomous Model S’s in testing. Additionally, Bosch partnered with TomTom to implement accurate GPS mapping data into its platform.
    46. 46. Comma.ai George Hotz is the founder of Comma.ai and is well known for being the first hacker to unlock the original Apple iPhone. The startup developed an autonomous software-based driving kit marketed as the Comma One Open Pilot. Originally intended to be sold as an aftermarket add-on for certain Honda and Acura models, it was subsequently blocked by U.S. authorities for not submitting the technology to official review. The software is powered by “Neo,” a custom-made box of electronics mounted in pace of the rear view mirror. A OnePlus 3 Android smartphone mounted inside provides camera inputs and processing power. The system connects to existing camera and radar-based driver assist Lane Keeping and Adaptive Cruise Control systems in the Honda Civic Touring and Acura ILX models. Comma.ai is offering the kit to the public with code and hardware plans for developers to build upon.
    47. 47. DeepScale DeepScale is a San Francisco-based startup that has core technology in training data for machine learning algorithms, rapid deep neural network (DNN) training and efficient DNN deployment in embedded/IoT (Internet of Things) applications. The company is applying this expertise todevelop perception and learning systems for autonomousvehicles.
    48. 48. Delphi United Kingdom-based automotive parts supplier Delphi built aplatform of software and sensors to convert any vehicle into one that’s autonomous. In April 2016, the company outfitted an Audi SQ5 with its technology and test drove it 3,000 miles across the United States, where it reportedly operated autonomously for 99% of the drive. At CES 2016, Delphi displayed a new autonomous human-machine interface that focuses on providing comfort and control to drivers in the stepping-stone stage before automation isready. Delphi has also partnered with Quanergy, a startup that’s developing solid-state LiDARat a cost of only $1,000 per car.
    49. 49. Didi Chuxing Apple invested $1 billion in Didi in May 2016. In July, Uber China merged with Didi Chuxing. Currently, there is no formal self- driving initiative that’s been announced. Though, there is speculation aroundrecent partnerships and investments, as well as the company’s stated emphasis on artificial intelligence that indicates otherwise. In an interview with Bloomberg, Didi Chuxing President Jean Liu shared, “The next phase for us isreally to invest more in artificial intelligence and machine learning.”
    50. 50. Drive.ai Drive.ai was founded in April 2015 by former graduatestudents working in Stanford University’s Artificial Intelligence Lab. The Mountain View, Calif.-based startup is focused on developing deep learning AI software and using it as the brainsdriving real-time actions of autonomous vehicles. More so, Drive.ai is designing its software to have a personality that cancommunicate with people in a human-likeway. Company president and co-founder Carol Reiley explained their approach to Fortune, “People’s first interaction with a self-driving car will not be in the car, but as bystander either as a pedestrian, bicyclist, motorcyclist or another driver. To gain trust of the public, these cars have to communicate with the outside world, and be able to emote what its intentionsare.” Some of the ways the company is experimenting with communication protocol include sensors, software, audio equipment and a roof-mounted LED sign to send messages, emojis, and emit varying sounds to communicate intent. The company is also pairing its intelligent software with hardwarekits to retrofit business vehicle fleets.
    51. 51. Fisker Henrik Fisker was an early innovator in the advancement of electric high performance vehicles. Launched as Fisker Automotive, the company debuted its hybrid Karma model at the 2008 North American InternationalAuto Show. After selling 2,000 Karmas worldwide, Fisker Automotive met its demise. Citing major differences with management, Fisker resigned in 2013. The company subsequently filed for bankruptcy; Chinese parts supplier Wanxiang bought its assets for $149.2 million in 2014 and formed Karma Automotive. In February 2014, the company’s designs, engineering and manufacturing facility were purchased by Chinese auto parts conglomerate Wanxiang Group for $149.2 million. Fisker Inc. was then re-launched in 2016 as an all-electric vehicle. The company is now working on its Emotion EV vehicle expected to debut in the summer of 2017. The vehicle is designed to be a luxury electric sedan that is estimated to drive up to 400 miles on a single charge and reach a top speed of 161mph. The EMotion was announced with autonomous capabilities but details are not yet available.
    52. 52. Google Google's autonomous vehicle program has been one of the most ambitious and public to date. Operating as Google X, this advanced fleet has been driving around Silicon Valley for several years. Google's work on this front is unrivaled, as it boasts 21 modified Lexus SUVs and 33 unorthodox pod-like small cars that can fully drive themselves. X vehicles have self- driven more than 3 million miles on the streets of Mountain View, Calif., Austin, Texas, Kirkland, Wash., and Metro Phoenix. Of those miles, 10,000 rides have safely carried Googlers and guests without the capacity for a human being to take the wheel. In September 2016, Google hired ex-Hyundai and TrueCar exec John Krafcik to lead the program. It also hired Kevin Vosen as its first general attorney and Tim Papandreou, former head of San Francisco’s Office of Innovation at the city’s Municipal Transportation Agency. These hires signaled the development of a formalized infrastructure that seemed to prepare it for commercialization under the new Alphabet structure.
    53. 53. Just three months later in December, Google surprised the industry by spinning out its self-driving car unit as a separate company called Waymo, which stands for “Way forward in Mobility.” John Krafcik serves as the company’s CEO and Dmitri Dolgov is head of self- driving tech. At a press conference in Silicon Valley, Krafcik announced that, according to Google, the company noted that it had already completed the first fully driverless ride on public roads in Austin in 2015, with a car that had no steering wheel or pedals in everyday traffic. Krafcik said at the press event that he could see Google using its self-driving tech for "the ride-sharing business, trucking, logistics, even personally used vehicles and licensing with automakers." Additionally, Krafcik clarified that the company is focused on technology and not automobiles, “We are a self-driving technology company. We’ve been really clear that we’re not a car company… we’re not in the business of making better cars. We’re in the business of making better drivers.” The Information reported in December 2016 that the partnership between Waymo and Fiat Chrysler would introduce a ridesharing service based on a collaboratively developed autonomous version of the Chrysler Pacific minivan by the end of 2017. For Waymo, this partnership presents the opportunity to scale its technology with the help of automotive expertise to help it meet federal regulations and mass produce in market-ready, consumer-oriented vehicles.
    54. 54. Hitachi Hitachi launched a new division to develop autonomous driving systems. The work brings together efforts led by other Hitachi business units. To date, it has developedAI and obstacle-detection cameras, radars, sensors and actuators, a human machine interface, electronic control unit, a high-precision mapping system, and other infrastructure devices. These components help autonomous vehicles to safely navigate roads, predict pedestrian movements, avoid objects stationary and in motion, and optimize speed and slowing maneuvers. The company is seeking to provide technology solutions to automakers that are not designing autonomous solutions inhouse. In an interview with Nikkei, Atsushi Kawabata, chief technology officer of Hitachi Automotive Systems, he detailed the advantages of an integrated systems approach, “We are the only company in the world that brings together all the technologies necessary for automated driving.” In December 2016, Hitachi Automotive announced that its ADAS Electronic Control Unit is being used on the new Serena that Nissan launched in August2016.
    55. 55. Intel Intel is one of the early founders of Silicon Valley and has, over the years, effectively expanded its innovative chipsets beyond traditional PC and enterprise platforms to mobile to post- PC devices and the Internet of Things (IoT). To date, Intel has partnered with Mobileye and Delphi to enable autonomous technology solutions with its Core i7processors. In November 2016, as part of its IoT organization, Intel introduced the Automated Driving Group (ADG), a new business unit dedicated to working with technology partners and carmakers to power autonomous technology.
    56. 56. The new group is will be led by Doug Davis, Intel’s current head of the IoT division. He postponed his announcement to do so. In an official company statement, Intel positioned ADG as a long-term vertical growth investment in driving an automobile’s ability to communicate with everything in day-to-day driving environments (V2X), “Automated driving is long term growth opportunity for Intel. We believe there is an incredible opportunity to reinvent the driving experience and it will take a global ecosystem for this vision to come to fruition. The new ADG organization will provide the necessary focus and support for our long-term investments needed for our strategic automated driving endeavors.” At the Los Angeles Auto show in November 2016, Intel CEO Brian Krzanich announced that Intel Capital, an Intel subsidiary focused on early round investments in strategic startups and relevant technologies, would be investing $250 million in autonomous driving over the next two years. Investments will focus on connectivity, context awareness, deep learning and security.
    57. 57. Microsoft Microsoft is a relative newcomer to the autonomous caravan, which, to be fair, is not unlike manyautomobile manufacturers. However, Microsoft is beginning to explore the roadslessdriven. For example, in a partnershipwith Volvo, Microsoft is contributing to autonomous R&D and also hoping to implement its augmented reality HoloLens technologyintotheautomobile experience. More specifically, the companies intend to, “develop autonomous cars, the use of data to create ‘meaningful services,’ machine learning, and how to modernize the car buying process.” Microsoft is alsoreportedly contributingcloud computing capabilities to Here, the mapping business formerly owned by Nokia and recentlyacquired by a consortiumof German automakers. In September 2016, Microsoft announced that it will help the Renault-Nissan alliance develop next-generation connected services for its self- driving programthroughAzurecloudservices.
    58. 58. Mitsubishi Electric Mitsubishi Electric Research Laboratories (North America) is focused on driverless car technologies, with a group of 63 researchers in Cambridge, Mass., near MIT. The company’s president and CEO Richard Waters revealed that, among its autonomous efforts, computer vision is a priority. In an interview with Xconomy in June 2016, Waters shared, “We’re working on [getting to] where a car can actually see well enough to drive without a map.” Michael Jones, a computer-vision research scientist at MERL, expressed a more humble prediction about when autonomous vehicles will actually drive themselves. He believes that we are a decade away. “I think we can get 95 percent of the way there, but the last 5 percent is really difficult,” Jones told Xconomy. “You almost have to solve all of A.I. to have a car that drives with no driver.” These efforts are in addition to Mitsubishi Electric Corp. sharing its missile guidance technology components with Mitsubishi’s automotive group, as detailed earlier in our report.
    59. 59. Mobileye Israel-based Mobileye is a leading supplier of collision avoidance car sensor systems, supplying many of the ADAS systems offered by major automakers today. Among its many partnerships, the company teamed-up with Delphi to develop a Central Sensing Localization and Planning (CSLP) self-driving system to offer near-complete autonomous driving by 2019. The companies plan to offer an off-the-shelf CSLP system that can plug-and-play into a variety of vehicle types. Shortly after the very public “he said, she said” breakup with Tesla as a result of the fatal semi-truck and Tesla crash driving in auto-pilot mode, the company has already solidified partnerships with BMW and is close to finalizing an agreement with VW. Furthermore, the company is negotiating with roughly 10 carmakers to join its Road Experience Management (REM) mapping product (see mapping section).
    60. 60. Nauto Nauto is a hardware company and platform that collects real-world driving and accident data from manually driven cars. The goal is to partner with automakers to provide safety data to assist in the co- development of self-driving cars. Currently, the company partners with commercial fleets and now automakers to install its devices to rearview mirrors. The hardware features cameras that focus on the driver and also the road ahead, combined with other sensors such as accelerometers, to capture information about driver behavior and potential accidents. The goal is for Nauto software to be built into cars at the point of manufacturing. As a shared platform, automakers can share data that would take years to gather independently to guide autonomous cars (and their passengers) much more safely. In October 2016, automakers BMW and Toyota, along with insurance provider Allianz Ventures, announced that they were investing in and partnering with the company. Nauto co-founder Stefan Heck told Recode in an interview about the investment, “It was a year-long journey [to convince the car makers to share their data]. This is a real philosophy change. [It’s going] from a proprietary ‘we do it in secret’ approach to much more of what you’d see in other spaces and other industries that have more open standards.”
    61. 61. NextEV NextEV is a Chinese EV startup that announced in October 2016 the opening of its Silicon Valley headquarters and intent to enter the electronic vehicle market. The company is also involved in the Formula E electric race car platform. NextEV is rapidly developing an all-electric $1 million supercar. It is also actively investing in autonomous technology led by Jamie Carlson, a veteran firmware engineer and early member of Tesla’s Autopilot team. Carlson initially made headlines when he departed Tesla to join Apple’s Project Titan. Carlson joins former Tesla executive Kurt Thywissen, who was the company’s Senior Engineering Manager of UI & Autopilot Software. Thywissen is now Senior Director of Human- Machine Interaction at NextEV.
    62. 62. NuTonomy Cambridge-based NuTonomy is aiming to be the first company in the world to design and launch an autonomous taxi service. NuTonomy launched its initial trials in Singapore in August 2016. Much like Uber’s public Pittsburgh trials, the company seeks to get feedback from the cars and passengers to inform and expedite a launch as soon as 2018. This plan was fortified through a strategic partnership with Grab, an Uber rival. This approach is similar to what Uber and Volvo are testing in Pittsburgh and GM and Lyft in Phoenix.
    63. 63. Nvidia Something needs to power all this incredible, processing-intensive autonomous information. At CES 2016, Nvidia introduced the Nvidia Drive PX2, a computer vision system, which has been dubbed a, “super computer for autonomous cars.” The hardware is part of a bigger initiative that Nvidia calls DriveNet. The entire system is not only a processing plant, but also a deep learning AI network, which helps cars learn how to identify objects better and faster. In 2016, Nvidia partnered with Baidu to build a platform for semi- and fully-autonomous cars. Currently Nvidia can be seen openly testing its vehicles around the Bay Area in California.
    64. 64. QNX Acquired by BlackBerry in 2010, QNX develops navigation and connected device systems and middleware for self-driving cars. The intelligent operating system is currently used by Volkswagen and Ford, among others. The company derives its revenue by licensing its software to automakers and infrastructure and platform partners. Thomas Bloor, business development manager for BlackBerry QNX software systems, explains QNX this way, “Today, a lot of the systems put into the car are built and sourced in isolation from each other. So, a lot of systems end up fighting each other in the car.” Bloor also explained that security is critical to develop hack-resistant autonomous vehicles. In a November edition of Canada’s Globe and Mail, Bloor shared the importance of securing the connectivity between self-driving cars, their occupants, and networks, “We are bringing a lot of the security assets that secure the BlackBerry phones into the automotive space. Moving forward toward this vision of the autonomous connected vehicle, you can’t really build a safe system if you can’t make it secure. Obviously, safety and security are very strongly intertwined.”
    65. 65. Qualcomm Qualcomm is a global semiconductor and telecommunications equipment company that designs and markets chip-based solutions for wireless telecommunications products and services. In June 2016, Qualcomm debuted its Connected Car Reference Platform intended for automakers and technology partners to develop next-generation connected cars. Qualcomm, similar to that of Intel, is also developing semiconductors that help vehicles communicate in everyday driving scenarios via V2X (vehicle to everything). The company sees the path to enabling real-time V2X at scale is via 5G cellular networks. Until 5G becomes pervasive, the company is investing in LTE Direct device-to-device communications to enable direct communication between vehicles and each other, pedestrians and road infrastructure. Additionally, Qualcomm is investing in LET Broadcast technology for vehicular communications to alert drivers to an upcoming accident, guide them to open parking spaces, offer alternative routes and more.
    66. 66. Qualcomm’s investment in 5G technology will further scale autonomous capabilities. The company detailed three such scenarios in a blog post published in July 2016: • Cooperative-collision avoidance: Actions by a self-driving vehicle to avoid collisions may create hazardous driving conditions for other vehicles. Cooperative-collision avoidance allows all involved vehicles to coordinate their actions to avoid collisions in a cooperative manner. • High-density platooning: Self-driving vehicles will communicate with each other to create a closely spaced multiple vehicle chain on a highway. High-density platooning will further reduce the current distance between vehicles down to one meter, resulting in better traffic efficiency, fuel savings and safer roads. • See through: When small vehicles are behind larger vehicles (e.g., trucks), the smaller vehicles cannot "see" an obstacle such as a pedestrian crossing the road ahead. In such scenarios, a truck’s camera can detect the situation and share the image of the pedestrian with the vehicle behind it. This would then trigger a real-time alert to the vehicle or driver.
    67. 67. Seegrid With so many stories about autonomous innovation in 2015 and 2016, it’s impressive that Pittsburgh-based Seegrid was founded in 2003. The company focuses on an important niche: developing sensors and software to guide industrial vehicles around manufacturing and distribution facilities. Now the company believes it can scale the technology for everyday driving. Seegrid’s system is driven by stereo cameras the mimic human eyesight and provides a depth of field by combining image and ranging data from a single sensor. Additionally, the company’s “Evidence Grid” software captures and translates data uniquely, which the company markets as a competitive differentiator. The company has built a successful prototype based on a Nissan Leaf and is packaging its sensor kit and looking to partner with automakers in 2017.
    68. 68. Uber Aside from Google, Uber is among the more aggressive of the bunch accelerating the arrival and implementation of autonomous vehicles. Among its many disparate yet simultaneous efforts, Uber opened an Advanced Technology Center (ATC) in Pittsburgh dedicated to advancing self-driving Uber cars. Last year, the company hired 40 scientists, experts and engineers from Carnegie Mellon University to staff its ATC. That effort has now come to life with a city-sanctioned pilot where Ford Fusions (with human supervision) shuttle passengers around town. Each vehicle is outfitted with 20 cameras, seven lasers and a GPS-radar combo. In preparation for mass rollout, Uber reportedly placed an order for 100,000 self-driving Mercedes-Benz to roll out over time as part of its on-demand fleet. According to a Silicon Valley legend, Uber CEO Travis Kalanick attempted to order the entire production of 2020 autonomous Teslas, but did not do so because Elon Musk did not return his call. Uber partnered with Volvo in early 2016 to develop a fully autonomous car. Essentially, Uber and Volvo will use the same base vehicle to co-develop their own autonomous car initiatives. After losing a $3 billion bid for Nokia’s maps, Uber announced that it had already invested $500 million in its own global mapping project. The goal is to reduce reliance on Google Maps and set the stage for a precise self-driving vehicle network.
    69. 69. Uber purchased autonomous trucking San Francisco-based startup Otto for an estimated $680 million. The startup, like GM’s Cruise or Tesla’s Autopilot, offers a kit to help semi-trucks navigate highways. As well as expediting the rollout of self-driving intra-city services, the acquisition will help expand Uber’s reach into new delivery markets. It’s also a tremendous coup by the company in its race against Google and Apple to become the leading autonomous software platform. Otto made headlines in October 2016 when it partnered with Anheuser-Busch and the state of Colorado to outfit a Budweiser delivery truck to make a “Level 4” self-driving delivery test-run. According to a press release issued by Otto, the professional driver was in the sleeper berth monitoring the system for the entire 120-mile journey down I-25. At the time of publishing, Otto is seeking further test partners in addition to Anheuser-Busch to accelerate commercial autonomous transportation. https://electrek.co/2016/03/18/uber-order-mercedes-100000-autonomous-cars/
    70. 70. Udacity Online education startup Udacity introduced a self-driving car engineering nanodegree. This makes the list because, as part of the program, the education company will build its own self-driving car. Rather than bringing it to market, Udacity will open-source the technology to help other companies advance self- driving capabilities.
    71. 71. Valeo French automotive supplier Valeo introduced its Cruise4U technology at the Paris Motor Show in the Fall of 2016. The system consists of a camera, radar and laser scanners along with intelligent software to govern a vehicle’s operation in autonomous mode. Cruise4U forms a ‘cocoon’ that detects obstacles from 10cm to over 200m and responds in real-time to adjust driving, steering, accelerating and braking behavior accordingly. The company successfully made 20 passes along Paris’ 35km-long Peripherique in autonomous mode for 99% of the time.
    72. 72. Wheego Technologies Atlanta-based Wheego Technologies, originally Wheego Electric Cars, started out as a developer of small electric vehicles (EV) designed for consumer use. Now the company has pivoted to become an R&D company focused on machine learning and artificial intelligence for electric, autonomous vehicles. As of 2016, Wheego aims to fill a void in Asia by supplying Chinese automakers with EV and autonomous driving technology. Foxconn Technology Group, an early investor that has since divested its interest in the company, initially partnered with Wheego to develop an electric delivery van for the Chinese market as a means to collect big data. That project was never completed, but the investment in machine- learning, autonomous driving and data collection serve as the foundation for its new offering. http://wardsauto.com/technology/wheego- retooled-ev-autonomous-tech-supplier
    73. 73. Zoox Zoox is a secretive Menlo Park, Calif.-based startup that is building autonomous technology to compete against Google, GM’s Cruise Automation and Tesla. The company is reportedly re-imagining the car from the ground up to offer passengers a dedicated mobile experience without the design constraints of traditional driver-centered cockpits. In October 2016, at the White House Frontiers Conference in Pittsburg, co-founder Tim Kentley-Klay described Zoox’s effots this way, “At Zoox what we’re creating...is not a self-driving car any more than the automobile is a horseless carriage. We’re not building a robo-taxi service, we’re actually creating an advanced mobility service.” He went on, “… you can really think of it as Disneyland on the streets of perhaps San Francisco and that means a vehicle which is smart enough to understand its environment but it’s also importantly smart enough to understand you, where you need to be, what you want to do in the vehicle and how you want to move around the city.”
    74. 74. MAPPING SYSTEMS AND VEHICLE-TO-VEHICLE COMMUNICATION
    75. 75. Even with the most advanced radars, lasers, sensors and cameras, autonomous driving wouldn’t be possible without a detailed mapping counterpart. The modern roadway is a complex system of different road types, lane markers, curbs and medians, traffic lights and signs and more. Lacking details about the size and precise location of all of these roadway components, autonomous cars would literally be driving blind. Maps provide autonomous vehicles with necessary information upfront so the onboard computing systems can focus on detecting and reacting to other vehicles, obstacles, pedestrians, cyclists and so on.
    76. 76. HERE Nokia’s HERE mapping technology drew aggressive bidding and finally sold to the tune of about $3 billion. Daimler, BMW and Volkswagen aligned to purchase the technology, betting out the likes of Apple, Baidu, Uber and other manufacturers in the process. HERE is a mapping system that, in a way, competes with Google’s Street View, helping autonomous vehicles better understand their surroundings and path. In September 2016, HERE was re-branded as HERE WeGo. The system will compile transportation data from each of the company’s vehicles to be used by a consumer-facing app. Serving as a travel companion beyond autonomous driving, the app will offer real-time traffic updates, display upcoming road hazards, provide turn-by-turn navigation for walking or driving, and the locations of taxi stands and parking spaces/lots/garages. Further, the service will reportedly also utilize live video feeds to collectively inform traffic data. Hundreds of thousands of vehicles from the three German automakers are set to begin feeding visual data into the HERE system, with millions of vehicles expected to contribute live traffic feeds by the end of 2018, HERE said in its announcement.
    77. 77. Luminar Technologies Based in Orlando, Florida, Luminar Technologies is in stealth mode, but is said to have developed advanced sensor and software technology for 3D mapping.
    78. 78. Mobileye REM Mobileye REM is aiming to compete against Google, Apple, HERE and other mapping systems to offer precision-mapping for driverless cars, with a system that pulls video data captured by cars running on its camera-based sensor systems. The platform is a move toward vehicle- to-vehicle (V2V) technology, in which cars link to one another to help cars map roadways, become more intelligent about roads and conditions, and also communicate with other vehicles so that all cars in the fleet become smarter.
    79. 79. Telenav Telenav is a provider of connected car and location-based platform services for OEM automakers. The company is developing navigation, ADAS, mapping and big data intelligence platforms to serve various levels of autonomous driving.
    80. 80. TomTom TomTom spent five years working on the types of maps autonomous cars will need to drive safely. The company partnered with Bosch to provide maps as part of its autonomous testing program in California and Germany. Ultimately, TomTom plans to offer mapping hardware and software to automakers.
    81. 81. Zenrin, Mitsubishi Electric Zenrin, considered Japan’s biggest mapmaker, partnered with Mitsubishi Electric to create digital highway maps for use by Japanese automakers. Tokyo-based Dynamic Map Planning aims to digitally chart Japan's highways and other roads. Dynamic Map Planning is also evaluating an opportunity to partner with HERE.
    82. 82. THE ROAD AHEAD
    83. 83. “Are we there yet?” – every passenger ever With the autonomous industry racing from zero to warp speed, every aspect of the driving world is set for innovation and transformation. Whether you’re navigating the self-driving world or you’re affected by its progress, it’s essential that you chart the course for how automobiles are breaking new ground while leaving behind the roads that will eventually lead to nowhere. We are officially on the path toward automotive 2.0. It’s not just a trite moniker though. Automotive 2.0 completely changes the nature of the relationship between driver and automobile and the means to get from point A to B. Automotive 2.0 sets the stage for vehicles to become commodities separated not by driver experience but instead by passenger accouterments. Manufacturers face the inevitable shift from brand loyalty of today into more functional and lifestyle models where consumers employ automobiles-as-a-service. This is one reason why Uber and GM/Lyft, among others, are investing heavily in autonomous technology. Additionally, competitive value and differentiation will evolve from driver-centric features and existing cockpit designs to new and innovative spatial considerations and user experiences. Instead of forward-facing seats for passengers, we’ll see interiors that resemble lounges, offices, and living rooms. The very soul of automotive brands will now need to embrace new marque values, innovative technology and experience design as part of its DNA. Expect to also see new players emerge as Silicon Valley and other technology epicenters continue to both rival and complement traditional automotive capitals around the world.
    84. 84. There will be investments and acquisitions from the bigger companies. At the same time, corporate culture often struggles to compete with entrepreneurs who think and act faster, offer newer perspectives and are willing to take greater risks. Automotive leaders will need to convince shareholders and stakeholders that new business models are the key to future returns. There is no finish line to cross for autonomy. It’s now a matter of when a vehicle requires human intervention or not. Along the way, there will be, and already are, intelligent features that introduce self- driving capabilities to those willing to pay for them. Over time, everyday and professional drivers will come to grips with this new reality, one iteration and innovation at a time. But, this renewed perspective will co-exist with traditionalists for the foreseeable future. With each manufacturer varying in its ambition and intent, autonomous vehicles are nothing less than transformative. Whether vehicles are fully-autonomous by 2020 or 2021, or later, they’re ultimately on the way. Each new driver-assist feature that’s introduced between now and then slowly but inevitably forces consumers to think about automobiles differently. And with that, comes degrees of trust that the entire autonomous industry will have to earn, bit by bit.
    85. 85. Glossary: Key Terms Defining Autonomous Vehicles 5G: The G in 5G means it's a generation of wireless technology, coming after 4G. Highly automated driving requires ultra-reliable networks, low-latency, and they must work everywhere. 5G would solve for this need. Adaptive Cruise Control: Cruise control system that automatically adapts speed to maintain a safe distance from vehicles in front. ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems): Electronic systems in motor vehicles supporting the driver in certain driving situations. They often focus on safety aspects or on increased driving convenience. Automatic Emergency Braking: Automatic emergency braking monitors the proximity of vehicles in front, detecting situations where a collision is imminent. Braking is then automatically applied to avoid the collision or mitigate its effects. Automatic Parking System: Automatic Parking Systems are designed to help a driver park. Some perform the entire job automatically, while others simply provide advice so that the driver knows when to turn the steering wheel and when to stop. Collision Avoidance and Detection Warning Systems: Collision avoidance systems use a variety of sensors to determine whether a vehicle is in danger of colliding with another object. These systems sense the proximity of other vehicles, pedestrians, or other objects on the road. When the vehicle is in danger of colliding with another object, the collision avoidance system will warn the driver and take preventive actions, such as pre-charging the brakes, apply tension to the seat belts or take over steering.
    86. 86. DNN: Deep neural network. Used for the detection and classification of objects by companies like NVIDIA, dramatically increasing the accuracy of resulting fused sensor data. EV: Electric vehicles. Lane-Changing and -Keeping Assistance: Lane change assist senses a vehicle approaching in a neighboring lane while you signal for a lane change. The vehicle can alert the driver with a flashing indicator in the side mirror. Lane Keeping Assist combines a forward-facing camera to detect lane markings with an electric steering system, keeping the vehicle in the center of the lane. LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging): A detection system that works on the principle of radar, but uses light from a laser. LTE (Long Term Evolution): Mobile communications standard that allows fast data transfer rates and can be used to rapidly download data to a car, for example, even while the vehicle is in motion. NHTSA: U.S. Department of Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, a governing body for self-driving car regulations in the United States. OEM: Original Equipment Manufacturer. The OEM is the original producer of a vehicle's components, so OEM car parts are identical to the parts used in producing a vehicle. Glossary: Key Terms Defining Autonomous Vehicles
    87. 87. Semi-Autonomous Driving: A driving system that is primarily autonomous, but requires the driver to monitor and take control of the vehicle in case the automated driving system cannot safely operate the vehicle. Sensor: The sensors in an autonomous vehicle fall into three broad categories: 1) navigation and guidance; 2) driving and safety; and 3) performance (managing the car's basic internal systems). V2V (Vehicle-to-Vehicle) Technology: The exchange of information between two vehicles that warn each other of obstacles on the roadway, a change in the road surface or other hazards. V2X (Vehicle-to-Everything): The exchange of information between vehicles, other means of transport, the infrastructure, traffic management centers and various Internet applications. The car both sends and receives data, while other players also receive and process the information. Glossary: Key Terms Defining Autonomous Vehicles
    88. 88. About the Authors Brian Solis (@briansolis) is a digital analyst at Altimeter, a Prophet company, anthropologist and also a futurist. Brian studies the effects of disruptive technology on business and society. More so, he humanizes these impacts to help people see people differently and understand what to do about it. He is an award-winning author and avid keynote speaker who is globally recognized as one of the most prominent thought leaders in digital transformation and innovation. Brian has authored several best-selling books, including What’s the Future of Business (WTF), The End of Business as Usual, and Engage!. His latest book, X, explores the intersection of where business meets design to create engaging and meaningful experiences. Jaimy Szymanski (@jaimy_marie) is an industry analyst, focusing on how organizations adapt their digital strategies and core business models to serve the new “connected customer.” She has authored multiple research reports and artifacts on the topics of digital transformation, the collaborative economy, the autonomous world, consumer mobile, customer experience, and the Internet of Things. Jaimy provides independent research and advisory services to companies, like Prophet, in varied industries that are affected by emerging technologies. Aubrey Littleton (@aubreylittleton) is a Researcher at Altimeter, a Prophet Company. He supports Altimeter’s broad research mission and advisory efforts, working with analysts to understand the ever-transforming digital world. His research is currently focused on social business, customer experience, autonomous cars and digital transformation at large.
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