Election prediction app alteryx analytics gallery

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Dr. Dan Putler from Alteryx gives us a preview of Alteryx's Presidential Election Preference Application now uploaded on gallery.alteryx.com. Given a zip code, the R-driven application provides local …

Dr. Dan Putler from Alteryx gives us a preview of Alteryx's Presidential Election Preference Application now uploaded on gallery.alteryx.com. Given a zip code, the R-driven application provides local area estimates of presidential preferences.

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  • 1. The Presidential Election Preference Application Dan Putler, Brett Gottdener, and Richard Snow© 2012 Alteryx, Inc. Confidential.
  • 2. Agenda • The objectives of the application • A brief demo of one part of the application and a mockup of the other part • The underlying model used to predict area preferences for a particular candidate • The challenges of going from the model to the local area estimates needed for the app© 2012 Alteryx, Inc. Confidential. 2
  • 3. Objectives of the Presidential Preference Analytic App Provide local area estimates (e.g., a 7-minute drive-time from a particular address, a zip code, a county) of the percentage of registered voters who prefer Obama, Romney, a third-party candidate, or undecided about the upcoming election Caveat: The application looks at the preferences of registered voters, not likely voters, making things skew a bit Democratic© 2012 Alteryx, Inc. Confidential. 3
  • 4. Analytic App DemonstrationURL: http://gallery.alteryx.com/#!app/Presidential-Election-App/507c438a067c87070c4b8503© 2012 Alteryx, Inc. Confidential. 4
  • 5. The Presidential Candidate Preference Model 1 • The data: Respondent level data to Wave 7 of the USA Today / Gallup Presidential Election preference poll • 1,446 contacted adults age 18 and older • 1,301 registered voters • 1,026 usable (complete) responses • The survey was conducted from September 24 to 27, 2012 • The data is made available through the Roper Center at the University of Connecticut • Target variable: The candidate the respondent would vote for or leans towards • Respondents that support no candidate or do not know who they would vote for are classified as undecided© 2012 Alteryx, Inc. Confidential. 5
  • 6. The Presidential Candidate Preference Model 2 • The important predictors • Party affiliation/identification (the dominant predictor) • Age • The region of the country in which the respondent resides • Income • Educational attainment • Race • The “red” to “blue” hue of the respondent’s state of residence (based on a cluster analysis of 2004 and 2008 state level election returns) • Models that use these variables are able to correctly classify preferences in over 75% of cases in a validation sample© 2012 Alteryx, Inc. Confidential. 6
  • 7. From the Preference Model to the Local Area Estimates 1 You cant always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you get what you need. Mick Jagger and Keith Richards© 2012 Alteryx, Inc. Confidential. 7
  • 8. From the Preference Model to the Local Area Estimates 2 • The challenges • The income groups used by Gallup are different from those used in the Experian CAPE data and by the US Census Bureau • The household income of individuals age 18 or over who are US citizens is needed, but income is reported only at the household or economic family level • The distribution of the number of adults age 18 or over across households is needed, the closest available measure is the distribution of the number of household members across households • The joint distribution of predictor variables is needed rather that taking each variable individually for prediction© 2012 Alteryx, Inc. Confidential. 8
  • 9. From the Preference Model to the Local Area Estimates 3 • The solutions • Income groups: “Port” the Gallup income group definitions to the Experian CAPE data through the use of non- parametric estimates of each local area’s cumulative household income distribution (via an adjusted loess model), allowing for the estimation of the number of households in the area that fall into each Gallup income group© 2012 Alteryx, Inc. Confidential. 9
  • 10. From the Preference Model to the Local Area Estimates 4 • The solutions, continued • Going from household income to the number of adults who reside in households in a given income group: • To obtain estimates of the distribution of the number adults in a household across households for a local area: (1) get the expected counts for a specific number of adults in households of a particular size and then sum for that number of adults across households of different sizes based on information obtain from the ACS microdata and (2) then reallocate households across different number of adults present groups to meet adding up restrictions on the number of adults and households in an area via quadratic programming • Use iterative proportional fitting to obtain estimates of the joint distribution of household income level and the number of adults age 18 and over residing in a household in an area, and then collapse the distribution on income to obtain an estimate of the marginal distribution of the number of individuals age 18 and over that reside in a household with a given income level. The prior distribution for this is obtained from the ACS Microdata.© 2012 Alteryx, Inc. Confidential. 10
  • 11. From the Preference Model to the Local Area Estimates 5 • The solutions, continued • The joint distribution of the predictor variables: Obtain estimates of the joint distribution of the predictor variables combining individual level data from three different national Gallup Presidential preference polling surveys to construct a “prior” joint distribution of the variables, obtain the local area marginal distributions of the predictor variables data available from a combination of Experian CAPE, American Community Survey, and third-party political consultant voter political party affiliation data via iterative proportional fitting© 2012 Alteryx, Inc. Confidential. 11
  • 12. The Data Used in the App • Waves 10, 12, and 14 of the USA Today / Gallup 2012 Presidential Preference poll obtained from the Roper Center • Experian CAPE 2012 Current Year Estimates • American Community Survey 2010 5-Year Summary Census block group level data • American Community Survey 2006 to 2010 Public Usage Microdata Sample for both households and individuals • State level election returns for the 2004 and 2008 Presidential election • Voter party identification data provided by a political consulting firm that wishes to remain anonymous© 2012 Alteryx, Inc. Confidential. 12
  • 13. Next Steps for Non-Customers http://gallery.alteryx.com© 2012 Alteryx, Inc. Confidential. 13
  • 14. Key Words • Predictive Analytics • Election Predictor • Romney vs. Obama • Gallup Polling Data • Alteryx Gallery • Alteryx Analytics Gallery • Analytics Gallery • Big Data • Cloud Analytics • Big Data Analytics • Analytic Applications • Cloud Business Intelligence • Cloud BI • Big Data in the cloud© 2012 Alteryx, Inc. Confidential. 14