Political Smackdown Senate and Gubernatorial Candidates Battle it out on Social Media

Political Smackdown: Senate and Gubernatorial Candidates Battle It Out on Social Media Presented By: Jim Reynolds jim.reynolds@alterian.com twitter.com/jimmyrey

Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races  Setup  Senate Candidates from IL, CA, FL, DE, CT, KY, LA, NV, OH & PA  Gubernatorial Candidates from AZ, CA, CO, FL, IL, MA, TX, PA & NY  Categories  State  Race (Senate or Governor)  Party Affiliation (Independent, Republican or Democrat)

Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races Analysis  560K social media mentions of candidates since 3rd week of September  Volume steadily increasing leading up to elections  Conversation follows a weekly trend with decrease in chatter on weekends

Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races Analysis  Microblogs – 36%  Social Networks – 20%  Media Types – Other (Mainstream media) – 19.3%  Message boards – 18.8%  All Other Types – Less than 10%

Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races Analysis:  Microblog (Twitter) & Social Network (Facebook et al) mentions follow identical patterns  Message Board / Forum has picked up volume significantly leading up to the election

Election 2010 – Senate Races Number of Mentions Chart charlie melancon rob portman lee fisher david vitter Alexi giannoulias richard blumenthal kendrick meek pat toomey mark kirk joe sestak marco rubio jack conway Percentage of Conversation linda mcmahon charlie crist Democrat carly fiorina 35% chris coons barbara boxer Republican rand paul 61% sharron angle Independent 4% harry reid christine o'donnell 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 Analysis:  Christine O’Donnell has had over 100K mentions since mid-September  Harry Reid & Sharron Angle, both Senatorial candidates from Nevada rank 2nd & 3rd, respectively  Overall, the Republicans lead the conversation largely because of Christine O’Donnell (DE)

Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races Number of Mentions Chart scott cohen tom horner john hickenlooper dan onorato terry goddard mark dayton dan maes tom corbett charlie baker tom emmer tim cahill bill brady pat quinn deval patrick Percentage of Conversation tom tancredo alex sink jan brewer Democrat bill white 40% andrew cuomo Republican rick scott 55% rick perry carl paladino Independent jerry brown 5% meg whitman 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 Analysis  Meg Whitman is the second most talked about candidate overall (after Christine O’Donnell)  Gubernatorial races in California, New York & Texas are most discussed  In the Senate races, there is more conversation about Republicans but not by a large margin

Election 2010 – Senate Races Ohio Louisiana Illinois Analysis Pennsylvania  Delaware is the Connecticut most talked about Senate Race since Florida mid-September due largely to Christine California O’Donnell Kentucky  Interestingly, Nevada & Kentucky Nevada both beat California Delaware  Ohio’s Senate race is the least discussed 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 on social media

Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races Pennsylvania Analysis Minnesota  Unlike the CA Senate race, the Illinois Gubernatorial race in California is more Colorado frequently discussed than the races in NY Arizona & TX combined Massachusetts  New York’s race has had a major Florida increase recently due to a Texas controversial Carl Paladino New York  Surprisingly, California Pennsylvania ‘s Senate race is in last 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 place

Election 2010 – Top 5 Senate Races Kentucky: Rand Paul Jack Conway Delaware: Chris Coons Christine O’Donnell Florida: Kendrick Meek Marco Rubio Charlie Crist Nevada: Sharron Angle California: Harry Reid Carly Fiorina Barbara Boxer

California Senate Race Carly Fiorina vs. Barbara Boxer Average percent of posts 120.00% Favorability Chart 100.00% 90.56% 80.00% 60.00% 89.64% 40.00% Analysis 20.00% 0.00%  Barbara Boxer leads Carly Fiorina in Percentage of Conversation favorability* 43%  The volume of 1400 Number of Mentions Chart 57% conversation around 1200 Boxer and Fiorina is 1000 roughly the same, but their favorability 800 ratings differ 600 barbara boxer 400 carly fiorina  This race appears to be leaning towards 200 the incumbent Boxer 0 * Favorability is measured by diving the sum of positive and neutral mentions by the sum of positive, neutral and negative mentions

Florida Senate Race Marco Rubio vs. Kendrick Meek vs. Charlie Crist Favorability Chart 120.00% 89.76% 100.00% 80.00% 92.85% 60.00% 40.00% 91.75% 20.00% 0.00% Average percent of posts Analysis Percentage of Conversation  Kendrick Meek leads all candidates 1200 19% Number of Mentions Chart 44% in favorability while 1000 Charlie Crist is last 37% 800  Interestingly, Crist 600 has the largest marco rubio volume of kendrick meek 400 conversation while charlie crist Meek has the least 200 0  The volume would suggest that the race is between Rubio & Crist

Delaware Senate Race Christine O'Donnell vs. Chris Coons Average percent of posts Favorability Chart 120.00% 88.47 % 100.00% 80.00% 86.84 60.00% % 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% Analysis  Chris Coons has a 10000 Percentage of Conversation Number of Mentions Chart slight advantage 9000 16% over Christine 8000 O’Donnell in terms 7000 of favorability * 84% 6000 5000  O’Donnell christine o'donnell 4000 dominates the chris coons 3000 conversation with 2000 84% of the total 1000 posts 0  This race is leaning toward Chris Coons *Negative commentary is tied to O’Donnell

Kentucky Senate Race Rand Paul vs. Jack Conway Average percent of posts Favorability Chart 120.00% 100.00% 83.62% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 87.05% 20.00% 0.00% Percentage of Conversation Analysis 3500 26% Number of Mentions Chart  Jack Conway has a 3000 74% 4% favorability lead 2500 to Rand Paul 2000  Rand Paul owns 74% 1500 rand paul of the conversation 1000 jack conaway vs. 26% by Jack 500 Conway 0  If Rand Paul continues to trend upward in favorability he could win the race.

Nevada Senate Race Average percent of posts Sharron Angle vs. Harry Reid Favorability Chart 120.00% 100.00% 87.99% 80.00% 60.00% 86.61% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% Percentage of Conversation sharron angle harry reid Analysis 4500 43% Number of Mentions Chart  Harry Reid leads 4000 57% 3500 Sharron Angle in 3000 favorability 2500  Harry Reid also has 2000 sharon angle a 14% lead in 1500 harry reid volume of 1000 conversation 500 0  This race looks very good for Harry Reid

Election 2010 – Top 5 Gubernatorial Races Texas: Rick Perry California: Bill White Jerry Brown Meg Whitman Massachusetts: Tim Cahill Deval Patrick Charlie Baker Florida: New York: Rick Scott Andrew Cuomo Alex Sink Carl Paladino

California Gubernatorial Race Meg Whitman vs. Jerry Brown Average percent of posts Favorability Chart 100.00% 90.00% 87.39% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 85.05% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Percentage of Conversation Analysis 7000  Jerry Brown leads 45% Number of Mentions Chart Meg Whitman in 6000 55% favorability 5000 4000  Whitman is beating Brown by 5% in 3000 meg whitman volume of 2000 jerry brown conversation 1000  This is one of the 0 most challenging races to predict

New York Gubernatorial Race Andrew Cuomo vs. Carl Paladino Favorability Chart 100.00% 90.00% Average percent of posts 80.00% 70.00% 88.81% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 85.21% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Analysis  Andrew Cuomo Percentage of Conversation leads Carl Paladino 6000 Number of Mentions Chart by more than 3% in 5000 45% favorability 55% 4000  Paladino leads 3000 Cuomo by 10% in carl paladino volume of 2000 andrew cuomo conversation, due 1000 largely to a recent spike 0  This race appears to be in favor of Cuomo

Texas Gubernatorial Race Favorability Chart Rick Perry vs. Bill White Average percent of posts 120.00% 100.00% 91.49% 80.00% 60.00% 90.53% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% Percentage of Conversation Analysis 900  Bill White has a Number of Mentions Chart 800 42% slight advantage 700 58% over Rick Perry in 600 favorability 500 400 rick perry  Perry has a 16% 300 lead over Bill White bill white 200 in chatter 100 0  It appears that Democrat White has a chance in the Texas race

Florida Gubernatorial Race Favorability Chart Rick Scott vs. Alex Sink Average percent of posts 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 91.17% 60.00% 90.68% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% Percentage of Conversation Analysis 1200 Number of Mentions Chart  Alex Sink has a slight 1000 36% .6% lead over Rick 800 64% Scott in favorability 600  Rick Scott racks up rick scott 400 nearly 30% more alex sink conversations than 200 Alex Sink 0  This race appears to be in Rick Scott’s favor

Massachusetts Gubernatorial Race Charlie Barker vs. Deval Patrick vs. Tim Cahill 120.00% Favorability Chart Average percent of posts 100.00% 91.11% 80.00% 93.07% 60.00% 92.30% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% Analysis  Deval Patrick leads 800 Number of Mentions Chart Percentage of Conversation in favorability over 700 the other 2 candidates but is 600 27% 43% followed closely by 500 30% Charlie Barker & Tim 400 Cahill 300  Deval Patrick is in 200 charlie baker the lead with 100 deval patrick volume of 0 tim cahill conversation as well  This race seems to be in Patrick’s favor

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Political Smackdown Senate and Gubernatorial Candidates Battle it out on Social Media

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Political Smackdown Senate and Gubernatorial Candidates Battle it out on Social Media Presentation Transcript