Fall TV Show Down Using Social Data To Predict This Season’S Tv Hits

Monitoring the buzz around the new shows from ABC, CBS, CW, FOX, FX, NBC & HBO Jim Reynolds jimmyrey@gmail.com Twitter.com/jimmyrey

Details: • Keywords for Top Fall shows • Location Limited to US • SM2 Category Rules for Topic • 10 Weeks of Data • All Languages

Daily Volume Analysis: • Conversation primarily driven by other media types (CW community + friendfeed + delicious) • Early spikes resulting from summer previews of fall shows • Major spike on 9/7 focused on the premiere of Terriers on FX • Major spike on 9/8 – 9/9 focused on the premiere of Nikita/Hellcats

Share of Voice: Ranking The New Shows Analysis: 1. S#*! My Dad Says 18% 2. Hawaii 5-0 18% 3. Nikita - 14% 4. Hellcats - 13% 5. Boardwalk Empire - 8% 6. No Ordinary Family - 5% 7. Terriers – 4.6% 8. Undercovers – 4.4% 9. Outsourced – 4.2% 10. Blue Bloods – 4.2% 11. My Generation – 4.1% 12. Running Wilde – 3%

Analysis: • No Ordinary Family & My Generation are trending at a similar pace • Audience is 65% male • Sentiment is split nearly 50/50

Analysis: • S#*! My Day Says had an early lead but late in July Hawaii 5-0 took off, while Blue Bloods remained a distant third • Audience is 55% male • Sentiment is generally positive* *Sentiment Dictionary was modified for “S#*! My Dad Says”

Analysis: • Hellcats has the lead but Nikita just behind • Audience is 52% male – 48% female • Sentiment is predominately positive with a large increase around the premiere’s

Analysis: • Terriers dominates Running Wilde • Audience is 65% male • Sentiment is slightly more positive than negative

Analysis: • Boardwalk Empire has maintained consistent buzz that is slowly building before the premiere • Audience is 75% male • Boardwalk has the highest percentage of positive conversations among all shows

Analysis: • Undercovers has a slight lead due to an early spike, but Outsouced has taken the lead since • Audience is 65% male • Sentiment is primarily negative with the conversation focused on Outsourced

• Based on buzz alone, CBS seems to have a great shot at maintaining its leadership in prime-time television with consistently high ratings • HBO’s Boardwalk Empire has garnered the most positive sentiment • Based on the pre-premiere buzz, Running Wilde (FOX) and Outsourced (NBC) appear to have the highest chance to sink to the bottom

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Fall TV Show Down Using Social Data To Predict This Season’S Tv Hits

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