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  • 22/06/12
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  • 22/06/12 EMU monetary – ECB purchases
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  • Hsbc - Alliott Group

    1. 1. Global Economics Research Eurozone – Keeping it together October 2011 Madhur Jha Global Economist HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 6755 madhur.jha@hsbcib.comView HSBC Global Research at: http://www.research.hsbc.comIssuer of report: HSBC Bank plcDisclosures and Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it
    2. 2. Summary • We do not expect the Eurozone to break up; a break-up would threaten another Great Depression • Current proposals aim to limit contagion but only address symptoms • More long-term solution needs political will • Acceptance of responsibility by both creditor and debtor nations • Eurozone economic recovery remains sluggish as global trade cycle turns down • Debt reduction is made harder by slowing growth • Risk is of another credit crunch if a solution is not found to the current crisis • Spain has managed to differentiate itself from the rest of the periphery • But the outlook is clouded by weak global growth • Adherence to medium-term fiscal consolidation plan is paramount 2
    3. 3. What could a Eurozone member achieve by abandoning the euro?Currency devaluation the only significant advantageDisadvantages of leaving • default would not eliminate the need for fiscal adjustment as primary balances in deficit • Increased likelihood of defaults by companies and households now holding FX-debt • probable banking system collapse unless capital controls are put in place • would have to leave the EU • very hard to reinstate a legacy currency (probably become euro-ised) • with no nominal anchor, the risk of a wage-price spiral • no guarantee that long-term interest rates will be lower.What about Germany leaving? • Political commitment • FX appreciation: impact on Germany’s export performance • Would amount to a devaluation of external assets of German households, companies and banks • Germany would have to leave the EUBottom line: the Eurozone was always a political project and has never been an optimal currency area in terms of structure or countrymembership. It now requires a political solution to make it more of an optimal currency area, involving closer fiscal integration. 3
    4. 4. Parts of the Eurozone that are in trouble are still small Other Greece 2010 Eurozone GDP Netherlands 2% 3% Spain 6% 12% Portugal Italy 2% 17% Ireland 2% Austria 3% Belgium 4% Finland 2% France Germany 21% 26%Source: Eurostat 4
    5. 5. But the main risk is of contagion spreading bps 5-y ear CDS spread bps 2500 2500 2000 2000 1500 1500 1000 1000 500 500 0 0 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-07 Dec-09 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jun-09 Jun-11 Italy Portugal GreeceSource: ECB, Bloomberg, HSBC 5
    6. 6. The Eurozone crisis – how bad will it get before thepoliticians provide solutions?• Greece must be supported until a firewall is in place to protect the largereconomies in the periphery• Building the firewall is the problem: • Expanding the size of the EFSF or Eurobonds could put upward pressure on core bond yields and potentially challenge ratings • Using the ECB’s balance sheet risks inflation and moral hazard• The question is: how much must financial markets and economies deterioratebefore politicians come up with the solution? 6
    7. 7. Short-term solutions only address the symptoms The next “Grand Plan”… – 1) massively increase the firepower of the EFSF/ESM – 2) large Eurozone-wide bank recapitalisations …designed to limit the contagion from… – 3) lowering the size of the Greek stock 7
    8. 8. Not hard to see why current “firepower” is viewed as inadequate... EUR bn 2010 Gov ernment debt outstanding EUR bn 2000 2000 1500 1500 1000 1000 500 500 0 0 Portugal Ireland Greece EFSF* Spain Italy*Effective lending capacity of revamped EFSF. Source: ECB 8
    9. 9. …and quite a lot of the EUR440bn has been earmarked already Ireland rescue Portugal rescue 17.7bn 26bn Remainder 192.6bn Greece 2nd rescue provisional 72.7bn **Irish banks 31bn Bank *recapitalisations 100bn* The IMF has suggested bank recapitalisation needs could be EUR200bn so we assume half could be provided by the EFSF with the rest being provided privately or bynational governments **The Irish government wants to convert the promissory notes it has given banks into EFSF funding Source: ECB, IMF, Reuters, HSBC 9
    10. 10. Options for increasing the firepower Leverage options – allow the EFSF to undertake repos – allow the EFSF to offer credit protection (first loss of 20%) Other options – simultaneously lend EFSF funds (via governments) for bank recapitalisations – bring forward timing of ESM, which is already planned to be more bank-like and could be granted a legal mandate to buy many more bonds Most cannot be implemented quickly, which leaves the ECB a big role, but outright QE not imminent, in our view 10
    11. 11. The next few weeksTroika reports EU Council EUR8bn for Greece G20 Summit ECB Meeting EFSF buys debt EUR5bn for Greece20 October 23 October November 3-4 November late November early January Troika sixth review of Greece 11
    12. 12. The ECB is reluctant to follow the Fed or the BoE… Index Central bank balance sheets, Jan 2007 =100 Index 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 Fed ECB BoESource: ECB 12
    13. 13. …but the EFSF is unlikely to bring a permanent halt to ECB bondbuying EURbn ECB gov ernment bond purchases % 10y r Bond Yield 25 28 24 20 20 15 16 10 12 8 5 4 0 0 Apr/10 Jul/10 Oct/10 Jan/11 Apr/11 Jul/11 Oct/11 ECB debt Purchases (LHS) Greece (RHS) Ireland (RHS) Portugal (RHS) Italy (RHS) Spain (RHS)Source: ECB, Bloomberg, HSBC 13
    14. 14. Central bank liquidity may prevent a bank failure but not a creditcrunch EUR bn Outstanding loans from central bank to country s EUR bn banking sy stem 160 160 120 120 80 80 40 40 0 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Greece Spain Ireland Italy PortugalLending from central banks only includes the MROs and LTROs of the ECB. It does not include the emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) provided by Ireland’s andGreece’s central banks, which is shown in the “other liabilities” category of the balance sheet.Source: ECB, CEIC, National central bank balance sheets 14
    15. 15. Overall financial conditions are deteriorating rapidly % Eurozone Financial Conditions Indicator Forecast* % 5.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -3.0 -5.0 -5.0 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real rates High Yield Spread Credit Standards Real Ex change rate Wealth effectsNote: Chart shows estimated impact of changes in real short- and long-term interest rates, high-yield corporate bonds, lending standards, the real exchange rate and wealth effectsfrom equities upon the year-on-year GDP growth rate. * Forecasts assume unchanged or early October 2011 levels. Source: ECB, OECD, Bloomberg, HSBC 15
    16. 16. Banks in France and Italy tightened standards the most since thesummer Credit standards applied to new loans to businesses Bal. of opinions Bal. of opinions 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 -20 -20 -40 -40 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 France EurozoneSources: Banque de France, HSBC 16
    17. 17. Industrial sector is about to move into recession... Index %3m-on-3m 65 4.5 60 3.0 55 1.5 50 0.0 45 -1.5 40 -3.0 35 -4.5 30 -6.0 25 -7.5 20 -9.0 15 -10.5 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EMU PMI manufacturing output index (LHS) EMU industrial production (RHS)Source: Markit, Thomson Reuters Datastream 17
    18. 18. ...so Eurozone can’t rely on exports as the growth driver % Yr Eurozone % Yr 18 6 12 4 6 2 0 0 -6 -2 -12 -4 -18 -6 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Ex ports (LHS) GDP (RHS) Source: Eurostat and HSBC 18
    19. 19. Consumer spending may provide some offset… Index , 4Q07=100 Consumption Index , 4Q07=100 104 104 102 102 100 100 98 98 96 96 94 94 92 92 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 US UK Germany FranceSource: ECB, Bloomberg, HSBC 19
    20. 20. …but the oil price is unlikely to be the same stabilising factor as it was in 2009 % pts Impact of food and energy on real w ages* % pts 1.0 Forecast 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 08 09 10 11 12 Energy Food* HSBC calculations based on the inflation contributions from all of the food and energy components of HICP inflation. Assumes oil price stabilises at early October 2011 levelof about EUR80/barrel. A negative value denotes a period when energy is adding to the q-o-q change in consumer prices and therefore causing a drag on real wages.Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Eurostat and HSBC calculations 20
    21. 21. Once inflation is heading lower, the ECB should be morecomfortable with cutting rates %pts Contribution to EMU inflation % Yr 5 5 4 Forecast 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Energy contribution Food contribution HICP inflationSource: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg 21
    22. 22. Conclusions• Muddle-through is increasingly unsustainable…• … but a permanent solution will take time, political will and legal changes…• …which means the ECB will continue to have a critical role to play…• …in buying bonds, supporting banks and cutting rates 22
    23. 23. Spain 23
    24. 24. Spain’s fiscal metrics are not as bad as for some other peripheralcountries… % GDP Budget deficit % GDP% GDP % GDP 40 40160 160140 140 30 30120 120100 100 80 80 20 20 60 60 40 40 10 10 20 20 0 0 0 0 Spain Portugal Greece Ireland Spain Greece Ireland Portugal Change in gross debt 2007-2010 Change in gross debt 2007-2012f 2009 2010 (Actual) 2010 target (from 2011 budget) 2010 gross debt Source: European Commission Source: National Ministries of Finance 24
    25. 25. …but official assumptions for growth are too optimistic Government medium -term GDP forecasts Real GDP Forecast horizon growth US 3.4 2013 -2016 UK 2.9 2013 -2015 Germany 1.6 2013 -2016 France 2.5 2013 -2014 Spain 2.5 2013 -2015 Italy 1.5 2013 -2014 Portugal 2.0 2013 -2016 Ireland 3.0 2013 -2015 Greece 2.1 2013 -2014 Source: National Ministry of Finance 25
    26. 26. Spain’s growth has been largely a net trade story... % pt Contribution to GDP % qtr s 1.8 0.4 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 -1.2 -0.2 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Consp Gov t GFCF net trade GDP (RHS) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC 26
    27. 27. …and Spanish exports are higher than they were at the 2007 peak Ex ports of goods 2008=100 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 08 09 10 11 Germany France Italy Spain Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC 27
    28. 28. But Spain is facing an industrial recession as the global trade cycle hasturned Index % Yr Index Index 60 10 60 60 50 0 50 50 40 -10 40 40 30 -20 30 30 20 20 20 -30 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Manufacturing output PMI Manuf output PMI Industrial production Serv ices business activ ity PMI Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Markit 28
    29. 29. High unemployment and debt de-leverage imply slow consumptionspending % Unemploy ment rate % % GDP Priv ate sector indebtedness % GDP 24 24 230 230 20 20 16 16 220 220 12 12 210 210 8 8 4 4 200 200 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 08 09 10 11 Germany Eurozone Spain UK Spain Portugal Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Eurostat Source: Bank of Spain and Bank of Portugal 29
    30. 30. Regional government finances remain worrisome % GDP Autnomous regions % GDP %GDP Gov ernment deficit %GDP 1 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -6 -6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Autonomous regions Central gov ernment Year-beginning target Actual 2011 target 2011 H1 actual Source: Spanish Treasury 30
    31. 31. Some progress on structural change... Ind e x Product Market Regulation Ind e x % % Persons w ith Tertiary education attainment (%) 3.5 3.5 35 35 3.0 Higher 3.0 2.5 2.5 25 25 2.0 2.0 Lower 1.5 1.5 15 15 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 5 5 0.0 0.0 IE DE IT FI CH UK ES RO EMU FR GR PT JP IE US EMU* DE ES UK GR CN BR FR PT IT 2000 2009 Note: This indicator measures the degree to which polices promote or inhibit Note: For EMU, the value is 2008, Population aged 15-64 yrs competition in areas of the product market where competition is viable. The indicator covers formal regulation in: state control of business enterprises, legal and Source: Eurostat and HSBC administrative barriers to entrepreneurship and barriers to international trade and investment. It is a broad based reflection of state control, barriers to entrepreneurship and barriers to trade and investment. It is not just for manufactured products. *EMU here is weighted average of EU-13 countries Source: OECD, HSBC. 31
    32. 32. ...but more still needs to be done Index Strictness of Employment Protection Legislation Index 4 4 Higher 3 Lower 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 DE ES JP UK US IE FR GR IN CN EMU BR RU PT IT 2000 2008 Note: Employment Protection are synthetic indicators of strictness of regulation on dismissals and the use of temporary contracts. The higher the index value the higher the strictness of employment protection legislation.EMU here is weighted average of EU-13 countries, Data not available for BR, CN, IN, RU for 2000 Source: OECD, HSBC. Ranking Ease of doing Business Ranking 2010 Ranking 160 160 135 Harder 124 120 97 99 120 76 78 80 Easier 80 48 28 33 40 19 21 24 40 4 5 8 0 0 EG JP ES UK US DE IE CH FR PT CN GR BR IN IT Country RankingsNote: In total, 183 countries have been ranked globally. The index is survey-based. Especially significant to small to medium sized businesses.Source: World Bank’s Ease of doing business index 2010, HSBC. 32
    33. 33. Appendix 33
    34. 34. Private sector indebtedness is not high in core Eurozone Private sector indebtedness ratio % of GDP % of GDP 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 Germany France UK US 08Q2 11Q1 Sources: Banque de France, HSBC 34
    35. 35. Early 2012 is a busy time for Italian bond issuance Bond and Bill redemptions in the periphery ___ Greece_____ ____ Ireland ____ ___ Portugal ____ ____Spain______ _____ Italy______ ___ Belgium ____ Bonds Bills Bonds Bills Bonds Bills Bonds Bills Bonds Bills Bonds Bills Oct 11 0.00 3.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.28 14.09 10.04 0.00 15.68 0.00 6.41 Nov 11 0.00 3.30 4.40 0.00 0.00 3.56 0.00 6.20 15.51 14.85 0.00 6.42 Dec 11 8.10 3.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.28 0.00 9.28 0.00 19.96 0.51 6.76 Jan 12 0.02 1.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.17 0.00 7.13 0.00 15.20 0.00 5.43 Feb 12 0.00 0.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.73 1.34 10.86 36.41 16.74 0.00 3.66 Mar 12 14.44 1.30 5.55 0.00 0.00 1.78 0.00 5.78 27.15 16.25 5.37 3.73 Apr 12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.94 7.28 27.75 8.25 0.00 1.79 May 12 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.67 0.00 6.60 0.00 1.95 Jun 12 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.16 0.00 0.00 5.86 0.00 6.12 0.22 1.62 Jul 12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.87 4.12 17.05 7.43 0.00 1.07 Aug 12 7.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.40 11.50 7.15 0.00 1.70 Sep 12 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.59 10.44 8.25 12.92 1.04 Oct 12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.27 2.51 18.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 Nov 12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 Dec 12 2.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.23 30.52 0.00 7.91 0.00 Jan 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Feb 13 5.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.55 21.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mar 13 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.83 0.00 Apr 13 2.72 0.00 6.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.94 0.00 29.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 May 13 11.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Jun 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.17 0.00 0.11 0.00 Jul 13 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.95 0.00 14.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 Aug 13 5.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sep 13 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.50 0.00 15.68 0.00 Oct 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Nov 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 Dec 13 1.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.01 0.00 0.21 0.00 Source: Bloomberg and HSBC Fixed Income Strategy 35
    36. 36. Household and Corporate sector debt Private Sector Debt Components (% GDP) _______________ Households_________________ _________ Non-Financial Businesses___________ 1995 2000 2008 2009 1995 2000 2008 2009 Austria 42 47 55 57 61 79 85 91 Belgium 37 40 49 54 81 129 169 163 Denmark 82 93 135 147 62 71 104 105 Finland 36 33 55 62 73 97 114 118 France 35 36 51 54 70 81 103 109 Germany 62 73 61 63 51 66 70 71 Greece 6 13 51 53 32 45 68 71 Ireland na na 111 121 na na 168 204 Italy 18 22 40 44 54 56 81 84 Netherlands 59 87 119 128 86 103 92 94 Portugal 26 60 93 97 57 114 152 163 UK 66 69 101 104 62 79 121 122 Spain 32 46 84 86 46 76 136 140 Avg. 45 56 82 87 64 87 119 125 Source: Italy Stability Programme, European Commission April 2011 36
    37. 37. Summary of Economic Forecasts 37
    38. 38. GDP & Inflation – Americas and Europe (%) Key forecasts GDP Inflation 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2009 2010 2011f 2012f World (nominal GDP weights) -2.6 3.9 2.5 2.6 1.0 2.4 3.4 2.7 World (PPP weights) -0.7 5.1 3.6 3.6 2.0 3.3 4.2 3.3 Developed -4.1 2.6 1.3 1.4 0.0 1.4 2.6 1.7 Emerging 2.0 7.6 6.0 5.9 4.9 5.6 6.3 5.8 North America -3.4 3.0 1.7 1.7 -0.3 1.7 3.2 2.1 US -3.5 3.0 1.6 1.7 -0.3 1.6 3.2 2.1 Canada -2.8 3.2 2.1 1.9 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.0 Latin America -3.0 6.6 4.3 4.1 6.1 7.0 7.9 8.0 Mexico -6.1 5.4 3.7 3.9 5.3 4.2 3.5 3.6 Brazil -0.6 7.5 3.5 4.0 4.9 5.0 6.6 5.8 Argentina 0.9 9.2 8.0 5.0 14.5 23.2 23.8 23.4 Chile -1.7 5.2 6.4 4.5 0.3 1.4 3.2 2.9 Western Europe -4.2 1.7 1.6 0.8 0.6 1.8 2.8 1.9 Eurozone -4.1 1.7 1.6 0.6 0.3 1.6 2.7 1.8 Germany -5.1 3.6 2.8 1.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 1.7 France -2.6 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.1 1.7 2.2 2.0 Italy -5.2 1.2 0.5 -0.2 0.8 1.6 2.8 2.4 Spain -3.7 -0.1 0.6 0.3 -0.2 2.0 2.7 1.2 Other Western Europe -4.3 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.5 2.5 3.3 2.0 UK -4.9 1.4 1.1 1.3 2.2 3.3 4.4 2.4 Norway -1.6 2.1 2.5 3.1 2.2 2.4 1.5 2.2 Sweden -5.1 5.4 3.8 0.9 -0.5 1.2 3.0 2.4 Switzerland -1.9 2.7 1.9 1.4 -0.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 Source: HSBC 38
    39. 39. GDP & Inflation – EMEA and Asia/Pacific (%) Key forecasts GDP Inflation 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2009 2010 2011f 2012f World (nominal GDP weights) -2.6 3.9 2.5 2.6 1.0 2.4 3.4 2.7 World (PPP weights) -0.7 5.1 3.6 3.6 2.0 3.3 4.2 3.3 Developed -4.1 2.6 1.3 1.4 0.0 1.4 2.6 1.7 Emerging 2.0 7.6 6.0 5.9 4.9 5.6 6.3 5.8 EMEA -3.4 4.3 4.0 3.1 7.6 6.0 6.3 6.2 Czech Republic -4.1 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.4 Hungary -6.7 1.2 1.8 1.5 4.2 4.9 3.7 3.5 Poland 1.6 3.8 3.7 3.0 3.5 2.6 4.1 3.1 Russia -7.8 4.0 4.2 3.0 11.7 6.9 8.6 7.6 Turkey -4.8 8.9 5.1 3.0 6.3 8.6 5.9 7.4 Ukraine -14.8 4.2 4.0 5.1 16.0 9.4 8.6 8.0 Romania -7.1 -1.3 1.5 2.5 5.6 6.9 6.3 4.0 Egypt* 4.7 5.1 1.8 2.7 15.5 11.7 11.0 8.9 Israel 0.8 4.7 4.3 3.2 3.3 2.7 3.6 2.4 Saudi Arabia 0.1 4.1 5.9 4.3 5.1 5.3 4.8 6.1 UAE -2.9 1.7 3.9 4.2 -0.4 1.8 2.0 2.8 South Africa -1.7 2.8 3.0 2.5 7.2 4.3 5.1 5.9 Asia-Pacific 0.4 6.6 3.9 5.2 0.9 2.2 2.9 2.4 Japan -6.3 4.0 -0.6 1.9 -1.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 Australia 1.4 2.7 1.8 3.9 1.8 2.8 3.6 3.1 New Zealand -2.0 1.7 2.0 3.8 2.1 2.3 4.4 3.0 Asia ex Japan 5.9 9.1 7.3 7.4 2.9 4.8 5.6 4.6 China 9.2 10.4 8.9 8.6 -0.7 3.3 4.8 2.9 Asia ex Japan & China 2.5 7.8 5.5 6.0 5.6 5.8 6.1 5.7 Hong Kong -2.7 7.0 5.0 4.5 0.6 2.3 5.0 5.3 India 7.0 9.0 7.4 8.0 12.4 10.4 8.0 7.7 Indonesia 4.6 6.1 6.4 6.7 4.8 5.1 5.6 6.2 Malaysia -1.6 7.2 4.8 5.0 0.6 1.7 3.2 3.0 Philippines 1.1 7.6 4.3 4.8 3.3 3.8 4.4 4.5 Singapore -0.8 14.5 5.0 5.1 0.6 2.8 4.7 3.0 South Korea 0.3 6.2 3.4 4.1 2.8 3.0 4.4 3.6 Taiwan -1.9 10.9 4.0 1.7 -0.9 1.0 1.5 2.0 Thailand -2.3 7.8 3.9 5.0 -0.8 3.3 4.0 3.6 Vietnam 5.3 6.8 5.8 7.0 7.0 9.2 18.4 11.2Source: HSBC 39
    40. 40. Policy rates (%) Monetary policy Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011f Q4 2011f Q1 2012f Q2 2012f Q3 2012f Q4 2012f US Targeted Fed funds 0.00 to 0.25 0.00 to 0.25 0.00 to 0.25 0.00 to 0.25 0.00 to 0.25 0.00 to 0.25 0.00 to 0.25 0.00 to 0.25 Japan Overnight call rate 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 Eurozone Repo rate 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 UK Bank rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Canada Overnight rate 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC estimates Source: HSBC 40
    41. 41. Short rates (%) 3 month money End period 2007 2008 2009 2010 _____ 2011 _______ _______________ 2012 ________________ Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f North America US (USD) 4.7 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Canada (CAD) 4.5 1.9 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 Latin America Mexico (MXN) 7.3 8.2 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.8 5.0 Brazil (BRL) 11.2 13.0 8.7 11.1 12.1 11.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Chile (CLP) 6.2 7.9 0.5 3.3 5.3 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 Western Europe Eurozone 4.6 2.9 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Other Western Europe UK (GBP) 5.9 2.8 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 Norway (NOK) 5.9 4.0 2.2 2.6 3.0 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.6 4.0 Sweden (SEK) 4.7 2.5 0.5 1.8 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 Switzerland (CHF) 2.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 EMEA Hungary (HUF) 7.6 10.0 6.0 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 Poland (PLN) 5.1 5.8 4.2 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 Russia (RUB)* 6.3 20.6 6.6 3.8 4.8 5.5 5.5 5.7 6.3 6.5 Turkey (TRY) 16.0 15.5 7.5 6.7 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.0 Ukraine (UAH) 6.6 20.0 16.1 7.5 7.0 9.0 7.0 7.0 9.0 9.0 South Africa (ZAR) 11.3 11.4 7.1 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.8 Asia-Pacific Japan (JPY) 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Australia (AUD) 7.3 4.1 4.0 4.9 4.8 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 New Zealand (NZD) 8.9 6.0 2.8 3.3 2.8 3.4 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.6 Asia ex Japan China (CNY) 3.3 1.7 1.7 5.0 6.8 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.7 4.3 Asia ex Japan & China India (INR) 8.3 9.2 3.7 7.2 8.3 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 Hong Kong (HKD) 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Indonesia (IDR) 7.8 12.0 6.6 6.4 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.3 7.6 7.6 Malaysia (MYR) 3.6 3.4 2.3 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 Philippines (PHP) 3.7 6.1 3.9 0.8 4.5 4.5 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.7 Singapore (SGD) 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 South Korea (KRW) 5.7 4.7 2.8 2.8 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.6 Taiwan (TWD) 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 Thailand (THB) 3.7 3.6 1.4 2.2 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 Note: *= 1-month money 41 Source: HSBC
    42. 42. Long rates (%) 10-year bond yields End period 2007 2008 2009 2010 ______ 2011 _______ ________________ 2012_________________ Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Americas US 3.5 3.3 3.8 3.3 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 Canada 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 Chile 6.3 7.4 5.9 6.1 6.3 5.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Western Europe Eurozone 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 Germany 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.0 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 France 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.4 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 Italy 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.5 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 Spain 4.0 3.7 3.9 5.5 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 Other Western Europe UK 3.7 3.7 4.1 3.7 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 Norway 4.2 4.1 4.4 3.7 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 Sweden 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 Switzerland 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 EMEA Hungary 7.6 10.0 7.7 7.9 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3 Poland 5.7 5.4 6.3 6.0 6.2 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 Russia 6.3 11.3 8.7 7.7 8.0 8.6 8.1 7.8 7.9 7.9 South Africa 8.4 7.3 9.0 8.4 8.4 8.2 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.5 Asia-Pacific Japan 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 Australia 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.6 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4 New Zealand 6.0 5.6 6.0 5.8 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 Asia ex Japan India 7.8 5.3 7.7 8.0 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.8 8.0 7.8 Hong Kong 2.9 2.4 2.6 2.9 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.9 Indonesia 9.2 11.8 10.1 8.3 6.9 7.0 7.4 8.0 7.8 7.6 Philippines 6.4 7.3 7.9 5.9 5.6 5.4 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 Singapore 2.3 1.4 2.7 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 Source: HSBC Source: HSBC 42
    43. 43. Exchange Rates vs USD – Americas, Europe & EMEA End period 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Americas Canada (CAD) 0.99 1.23 1.05 1.03 0.99 0.97 0.97 1.04 0.97 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Mexico (MXN) 10.92 13.81 13.08 12.62 12.36 11.89 11.71 13.88 12.00 12.25 12.50 12.50 12.50 Brazil (BRL) 1.77 2.31 1.74 1.69 1.67 1.63 1.56 1.85 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 Argentina (ARS) 3.15 3.45 3.80 3.96 3.97 4.06 4.11 4.21 4.28 4.40 4.53 4.66 4.80 Chile (CLP) 498 637 507 484 468 478 467 521 455 455 460 465 470 Western Europe Eurozone (EUR) 1.46 1.39 1.43 1.37 1.34 1.42 1.45 1.34 1.38 1.40 1.42 1.44 1.44 Other Western Europe UK (GBP) 1.99 1.44 1.61 1.58 1.57 1.60 1.61 1.56 1.59 1.61 1.63 1.66 1.66 Sweden (SEK) 6.46 7.91 7.14 6.73 6.72 6.31 6.31 6.87 6.52 6.36 6.20 6.04 6.04 Norway (NOK) 5.43 7.00 5.78 5.86 5.81 5.53 5.37 5.87 5.43 5.32 5.21 5.14 5.14 Switzerland (CHF) 1.13 1.06 1.03 0.98 0.93 0.91 0.84 0.91 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.83 EMEA Czech Republic (CZK) 18.19 19.31 18.40 18.00 18.70 17.31 16.78 18.42 17.97 17.29 16.90 16.67 16.67 Hungary (HUF) 172.9 191.3 188.3 202.6 207.5 187.2 183.1 218.7 206.5 200.0 193.7 187.5 184.0 Poland (PLN) 2.46 2.96 2.86 2.91 2.95 2.84 2.75 3.29 3.15 3.00 2.96 2.85 2.78 Russia (RUB) 24.5 29.4 30.2 30.4 30.5 28.4 28.1 31.9 31.5 28.8 31.1 32.2 32.6 Turkey (TRY) 1.17 1.54 1.50 1.45 1.54 1.55 1.62 1.86 1.75 1.70 1.65 1.60 1.60 Ukraine (UAH) 5.05 8.05 8.00 7.93 7.97 7.96 7.97 8.00 8.05 8.50 8.70 9.00 9.50 Israel (ILS) 3.95 3.78 3.75 3.75 3.57 3.56 3.50 3.70 3.80 3.75 3.70 3.60 3.50 Egypt (EGP) 5.52 5.52 5.48 5.71 5.70 5.90 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.10 6.25 6.40 6.50 South Africa (ZAR) 6.83 9.25 7.36 6.97 6.62 6.76 6.78 8.04 7.60 7.30 7.10 7.00 7.00 43 Source: HSBC
    44. 44. Exchange Rates vs USD – Asia/Pacific End period 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Asia/Pacific Japan (JPY) 112 91 93 84 81 83 81 77 74 73 73 72 72 Australia (AUD) 0.88 0.70 0.90 0.97 1.03 1.03 1.07 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 New Zealand (NZD) 0.77 0.58 0.73 0.74 0.78 0.76 0.83 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.74 China (CNY) 7.31 6.82 6.83 6.69 6.59 6.55 6.46 6.38 6.35 6.30 6.25 6.20 6.15 Hong Kong (HKD) 7.80 7.75 7.75 7.76 7.77 7.78 7.78 7.78 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 India (INR) 39.4 48.6 46.4 44.6 44.7 44.5 44.7 49.0 49.0 48.2 47.4 46.6 45.5 Indonesia (IDR) 9393 11027 9425 8925 9010 8708 8577 8790 8800 8700 8550 8400 8300 Malaysia (MYR) 3.31 3.46 3.42 3.09 3.08 3.03 3.02 3.19 3.10 3.05 3.00 2.95 2.88 Philippines (PHP) 41.28 47.47 46.50 43.90 43.65 43.46 43.34 43.73 43.50 43.00 42.50 42.00 41.00 Singapore (SGD) 1.44 1.43 1.41 1.31 1.28 1.26 1.23 1.31 1.27 1.25 1.23 1.21 1.19 South Korea (KRW) 936 1263 1166 1140 1121 1097 1067 1181 1150 1130 1110 1090 1070 Taiwan (TWD) 32.4 32.9 32.1 31.2 30.4 29.4 28.7 30.5 30.0 29.5 29.0 28.5 28.0 Thailand (THB) 33.72 34.90 33.33 30.37 30.10 30.25 30.70 31.12 30.70 30.20 29.70 29.20 28.80 Vietnam (VND) 16217 16900 18200 19475 19498 20895 20515 20830 21500 21500 21500 21500 21500 44 Source: HSBC
    45. 45. Research Research • Research Website Accessed at: http://www.hsbcnet.com/research Click “HSBCnet Research” on left-hand menu To register: Select ‘register’ option • Bloomberg HSBE - Economics HSBV - Global Fixed Income Strategy HSBO - Currency Strategy HSTG - Equity Strategy For access: Go to the relevant page and key 97 <GO> 45
    46. 46. Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Janet Henry Important Disclosures This document has been prepared and is being distributed by the Research Department of HSBC and is intended solely for the clients of HSBC and is not for publication to other persons, whether through the press or by other means. This document is for information purposes only and it should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other investment products mentioned in it and/or to participate in any trading strategy. Advice in this document is general and should not be construed as personal advice, given it has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. If necessary, seek professional investment and tax advice. Certain investment products mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries, and they may not be suitable for all types of investors. Investors should consult with their HSBC representative regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned in this document and take into account their specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to purchase investment products. The value of and the income produced by the investment products mentioned in this document may fluctuate, so that an investor may get back less than originally invested. Certain high-volatility investments can be subject to sudden and large falls in value that could equal or exceed the amount invested. Value and income from investment products may be adversely affected by exchange rates, interest rates, or other factors. Past performance of a particular investment product is not indicative of future results. Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking revenues. For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research. * HSBC Legal Entities are listed in the Disclaimer below.Additional disclosures1 This report is dated as at 17 October 2011.2 All market data included in this report are dated as at close 14 October 2011, unless otherwise indicated in the report.3 HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its Research business. HSBCs analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBCs Investment Banking business. Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner. 46
    47. 47. Disclaimer* Legal entities as at 04 March 2011 Issuer of report‘UAE’ HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai; ‘HK’ The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Hong Kong; ‘TW’ HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation HSBC Bank plcLimited; ‘CA’ HSBC Securities (Canada) Inc, Toronto; HSBC Bank, Paris Branch; HSBC France; ‘DE’ HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Düsseldorf; 000 HSBC Bank (RR),Moscow; ‘IN’ HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited, Mumbai; ‘JP’ HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo; ‘EG’ HSBC Securities Egypt SAE, Cairo; 8 Canada Square, London‘CN’ HSBC Investment Bank Asia Limited, Beijing Representative Office; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch; The Hongkong and E14 5HQ, United KingdomShanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Branch; HSBC Securities (South Africa) Telephone: +44 20 7991 8888(Pty) Ltd, Johannesburg; ‘GR’ HSBC Securities SA, Athens; HSBC Bank plc, London, Madrid, Milan, Stockholm, Tel Aviv; ‘US’ HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, New York; HSBC Fax: +44 20 7992 4880Yatirim Menkul Degerler AS, Istanbul; HSBC México, SA, Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero HSBC; HSBC Bank Brasil SA – Banco Múltiplo; HSBC BankAustralia Limited; HSBC Bank Argentina SA; HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch Website: www.research.hsbc.comThis document is issued and approved in the United Kingdom by HSBC Bank plc for the information of its Clients (as defined in the Rules of FSA) and those of its affiliates only. 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