Energy Efficiency Policy Trends, Pinch-Points, and Prospects: Toto, I’ve a Feeling We’re Not in California Any More!”

Energy Efficiency Policy Trends, Pinch-Points, and Prospects: Toto, I’ve a Feeling We’re Not in California Any More!” Jeff Harris, VP - Programs

Why Is This State Different From All Other States??

Is there a Difference in California’s Energy Path? Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation) (kWh/person) (2006 to 2008 are forecast data) 14,000 12,000 Electricity per person United States United States 2005 Differences 10,000 = 5,300kWh/yr = $165/capita 8,000 6,000 California California 4,000 Per Capita Income in Constant 2000 $ 2,000 1975 2005 % change US GDP/capita 16,241 31,442 94% Cal GSP/capita 18,760 33,536 79% 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Why the Difference?  Climate?  Supportive Politics?  Economics?  Education?  Culture ???

Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances 110 Effective Dates of = National Standards 100 Effective Dates of = State Standards 90 Index (1972 = 100) Gas Furnaces 80 75% 70 60% 60 Central A/C 50 SEER = 13 40 Refrigerators 30 25% 20 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Year Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE, in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org Source: Art Rosenfeld 5

Prices Matter CA residential electricity rates are 29% higher than US average (but bills are 29% lower!) 16.0 14.0 12.0 Cents per kWh 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Residential Commercial Industrial ALL US California

Policies, Programs, and Institutional Relationships 1) Energy Plan and demand forecasts 2) Conservation as a resource 3) Building codes and appliance standards 4) State and utility DSM programs 5) R&D 6) GHG Goals (AB 32) 7) CEC vs(?) CPUC

California IOU’s Investment in Energy Efficiency Crisis Forecast $1,000 Performance $900 Incentives Profits Millions of $2002 per Year $800 decoupled IRP 2% of 2004 Market from sales IOU Electric Restructuring $700 Revenues $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Public Goods Charges $0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 8

Impacts of Utility Programs, Building Codes, and Standards 50,000 ~19% of 45,000 Residential and Commercial Electricity Use 40,000 in California in 2006 35,000 GWh 30,000 25,000 Utility Programs and Market Effects 20,000 Title 20 15,000 Appliance Standards 10,000 5,000 Title 24 Building Standards 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

The California Effect (Revisited) 14,000 California w/out stds and programs 12,000 United States 10,000 kWh/person 8,000 6,000 California 4,000 2,000 0 1978 2000 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2002

What’s It Like in Not-California?  Similar but more thinly scattered (rare to find most of the pieces)  Federal funding sets the pace (“morning-after” ARRA hangovers?)  “Not-California” often a badge of honor  Still missing: - Rates vs bills - Efficiency as a (real) resource

What’s Next? (maybe)  Smart meters, feedback, and TOU/CPP/RTP rates  Building energy rating/disclosure (“labels”)  “Big Bold” utility programs  PACE financing (etc.)  Rethinking EM&V and performance incentives (?) – DSM, Cap-and-Trade, etc.  Resurrecting “conservation”?

So, Maybe It All Boils Down to… “60% of success Maybe the other is just showing 40% is hanging up.” in there! - Woody Allen

For Extra Credit, Google:  “Art Rosenfeld” + “CEC” www.energy.ca.gov/commissioners/rosenfeld_docs  “Deconstructing” + “Rosenfeld Curve” http://www.stanford.edu/group/peec/cgi- bin/docs/modeling/research/Deconstructing%20the%20 Rosenfeld%20Curve.pdf  “Roots” + “Energy Efficiency” + “Meier” http://eec.ucdavis.edu/rootsforum/video/promo.html

Energy Efficiency Policy Trends, Pinch-Points, and Prospects: Toto, I’ve a Feeling We’re Not in California Any More!”

by Alliance To Save Energy on Feb 12, 2010

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Energy Efficiency Policy Trends, Pinch-Points, and Prospects: Toto, I’ve a Feeling We’re Not in California Any More!” — Presentation Transcript