Sunrise Trading Professor Mary Bouchelet FIN 230 – International Finance Yvaly Prak Ornela Shtini Ulrich Bernard Alexis Cu...
 
<ul><li>Fiscal & Monetary Policy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bailout Program ($700 billion) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>IR Lowere...
<ul><li>Sunrise Trading’s Beliefs & Values </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Current State of the Economy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><...
 
<ul><li>Large capitalization </li></ul><ul><li>Establish itself as a leader & </li></ul><ul><li>Dominate the market </li><...
 
($772) $9 513,48 $8 329,08 3/11/2010:  Google Launching Android Business App Market 2/25/2010:  Google Inc. faces European...
<ul><li>Global air industry has been affected by the recession  </li></ul><ul><li>Only a “recovery” for the industry in 20...
<ul><li>Our Case 2/22/2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Boeing (BA) expects China to spend $400 billion to purchase 3,770 planes from...
 
<ul><li>Expiration Date 02/19/2010 (10 Days to exercise) </li></ul><ul><li>Out of the money by $2.61 (2.15%) </li></ul><ul...
<ul><li>02/03/2010: </li></ul><ul><li>IBM announced an update of their servers and hardware to make them more energy-effic...
<ul><li>Symbol Meaning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>PWQ = Prudential Financial Inc.  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10 = Expiration Y...
BP EP $7,490 $50,000 $39,500 <ul><li>02/07/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Quarterly Report Gossips  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><l...
<ul><li>Symbol Meaning </li></ul><ul><li>Expiration Date 02/19/2010 </li></ul><ul><li>00065000 = Strike Price ($65.00)  </...
<ul><li>Our Case 2/9/2010 </li></ul><ul><li>MCD betas expectations with 2.6% increase in sales </li></ul><ul><li>Boost the...
 
$8 190 ($50 040) ($50 040) 02/10/2010:  Comcast  Q4 earnings more than doubled and beat Wall Street expectations, but shar...
<ul><li>Put on: BSX 100320 00008000 </li></ul><ul><li>Symbol Meaning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>BSX = Boston Scientific  </li><...
157,48% $78,720 24,98% $12,490 -100% -$50,000 <ul><li>02/11/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Announced of deceiving results </l...
 
<ul><li>Investors Recovers Confidence </li></ul><ul><li>Technical Analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Moving Average </li></ul>...
51,240% $51,240.00 -3,,98% $3,980 -28,84% $28,940 <ul><li>03/2010:  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Greeks concerned made us think f...
<ul><li>Fundamental Analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Swiss trade balance rose from a forecast of 1.8 billion to 2.42 billion...
($20,720) ($27,920) $58,480 <ul><li>03/25/2010:  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Expiration Date  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A bigge...
$12 930 ($10 195) $205 145 <ul><li>Cold weather and winter storms have impacts on cattle feeder  </li></ul>
<ul><li>Technical Analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Analyst Opinion: Sell </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Demand & Supply Graph </li><...
$71 ($22) ($650) Our Case 2/23/2010 <ul><li>Worst Case 3/10/2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial and precious metals markets ...
<ul><li>Technical Analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Moving Average </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Current Price > Current 20 ...
$2,755 $51,695 $10,405 <ul><li>02/18/2010:  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ZEW Economic Expectations (52.5/56.2) </li></ul></ul><ul...
 
 
$3 043,14 ($887, 44) $12 570, 51 2/16/2010:  On the path of a merger between British Airways and Iberia   03/09/2010: A st...
<ul><li>Sterling declining quite significantly due to the American economy strengthening. </li></ul><ul><li>Bank of Englan...
!!! <ul><li>Industry Comparison </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Management Effectiveness </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>All Worst th...
$10 -$11,336 -$11,336 <ul><li>04/05/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Advantest Introduced New Air-Cooled Mainframe for its T200...
<ul><li>Hedging  the Yen due to our Position on Advantest Corp. </li></ul><ul><li>Indicators showed a strong “BUY”  </li><...
<ul><li>03/12/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dollar likely to rise in coming week on U.S. outlook </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>...
<ul><li>Industry Comparison </li></ul><ul><li>Management Effectiveness </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Worst than the Industry </li>...
<ul><li>Analyst Opinion : Sell </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bar Chart: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Bearish </li></ul></ul></ul...
<ul><li>Our Case 2/25/2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Issued 184 million new shares to the Government   </li></ul><ul><li>Transfert...
 
<ul><li>Asset Allocation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>79% AAA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3% AA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>11% A <...
<ul><li>Risk VS Return </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Average Risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High Return </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Be...
$2,242 $2,729 ($975) <ul><li>04/08/2010:   </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Loan Agreement for Greece </li></ul></ul><ul><li>04/09/20...
<ul><li>Management </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tenure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Wise Dynamism Mix </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><...
<ul><li>Asset Allocation </li></ul><ul><li>Top Holdings </li></ul><ul><li>Top Sectors </li></ul>
$11,056 -$3,586 $11,056 <ul><li>04/08/2010:   </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Loan Agreement for Greece </li></ul></ul><ul><li>04/06...
 
<ul><li>Bond Pepsi Co. :  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Coupon Interest Rate: 4.65%  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Maturity: 02/15/20...
0,95% $8,909.00 -0,89% -$8,313.00 2,07% $19,580.00 <ul><li>03/08/2010:   </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pepsi Co to Buy Back shares...
 
 
 
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(CEFAM) FIN 230 - Portfolio Presentation

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Final Portfolio Presentation (May 2010)

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  • WORST CASE The bulls are making a big deal out of the residual strength in platinum group metals prices this week as that would seem to suggest that sentiment toward industrial and precious metals markets is strengthening. The bulls might also point to the prospect of a tightening of physical silver supply with another minor decline in daily silver exchange warehouse stocks posted overnight. However, supply hasn&apos;t exactly been a dominating fundamental force in the silver trade lately and therefore action in equities and other physical commodity markets might continue to be very important to the silver trade. Nonetheless, the silver bulls seem to be able to foster favorable forward demand expectations even in the face of a thin US report slate this week and that in turn could justify silver prices sitting within close proximity to the highest silver price level since January 21st. Like gold, seeing silver prices manage a rise this morning in the face of a higher US Dollar, would seem to suggest that the bulls are managing to win the early battle today. One can&apos;t discount the prospect of an upside breakout on the silver charts directly ahead, especially since the silver market is showing strength in the face of many outside market negatives. Apparently silver prices below $17.00 are now considered too cheap for conditions, but we are just not convinced that silver prices are destined to rise sharply above the $17.50 level in the May contract in the coming trading sessions. BEST CASE At first blush, a higher Dollar and lower equities seems to have applied some minor pressure to silver prices. However, the May silver contract did manage to rise back above the prior session&apos;s highs at times overnight and that has to embolden some bulls and discourage some bears. While it seems like silver is generally tracking off outside market forces, there are some analysts who are attempting to play up the prospect of developing tightness in the silver market and that might be helping silver to generally outperform the gold market. However, classic fundamental analysts have to be disappointed with the sharp slide in US new home sales readings in the prior trading session. Furthermore, it would also seem like silver will have to continue to deal with the threat of further debt related turmoil in Greece. Some traders are suggesting that regaining the $16.00 level overnight hints at an improvement in sentiment toward silver, while others suggest that more slack US economic readings this morning could put the bear camp right back in control of silver prices. We can&apos;t throw off the bearish view toward silver, even if the silver market is showing signs of holding up better than the gold market. In fact, since we maintain a generally bullish view toward the Dollar and we also acknowledge the lingering weakness in the US economy, it would seem like most roads look to lead silver prices lower.
  • (CEFAM) FIN 230 - Portfolio Presentation

    1. 1. Sunrise Trading Professor Mary Bouchelet FIN 230 – International Finance Yvaly Prak Ornela Shtini Ulrich Bernard Alexis Cuny Arthur Steghens
    2. 3. <ul><li>Fiscal & Monetary Policy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bailout Program ($700 billion) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>IR Lowered to 0.25% </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Inflation & Components </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Will Rise to approximately 2% (Low Estimate) or 5% (High Estimate) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Unemployment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>10% (December, 2008) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>GDP & Components </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Recession (Q3 2008) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Treasury, Bond Market, & Yield Curve </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Slow Recovery after Plunge of U.S. Economy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Major Currencies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>USD Depreciated, EUR Appreciated, JPY Stagnated, GBP Appreciated, CHF Appreciated </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Commodities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gold Strong Growth, Crude Oil Recovery </li></ul></ul>
    3. 4. <ul><li>Sunrise Trading’s Beliefs & Values </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Current State of the Economy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Slow Recovery </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Not Secured from Another Downturn </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Teamwork </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Excellence </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Investments Strategy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>First Phase - Conservative Allocation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Time Scale: From 2 to 3 Weeks </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Risk: Low </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Return: Low </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Second Phase - Strong Growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Time Scale: Until the End of the Class </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Risk: High </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Return: High </li></ul></ul></ul>
    4. 6. <ul><li>Large capitalization </li></ul><ul><li>Establish itself as a leader & </li></ul><ul><li>Dominate the market </li></ul><ul><li>Can easily enter new market & Acquire new businesses </li></ul>
    5. 8. ($772) $9 513,48 $8 329,08 3/11/2010: Google Launching Android Business App Market 2/25/2010: Google Inc. faces European Union scrutiny after complaints-Reuters 3/11/2010: Google Launching Android Business App Market
    6. 9. <ul><li>Global air industry has been affected by the recession </li></ul><ul><li>Only a “recovery” for the industry in 2010, no profits </li></ul>Less Bullish than the Market +3 +1 -1 +2 0 Demand Price Worst Worst Worst Worst
    7. 10. <ul><li>Our Case 2/22/2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Boeing (BA) expects China to spend $400 billion to purchase 3,770 planes from manufacturers. </li></ul><ul><li>BA reported a 61% drop in commercial aircraft. </li></ul><ul><li>Worst Case 3/29/2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Boeing (BA) reported it completed a key test of its new 787 Dreamliner. </li></ul><ul><li>Best Case 2/8/2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Conflict between China and the U.S. because of the President Obama’s meeting with Dalai Lama. </li></ul>($4,777) ($21,543) $5,680
    8. 12. <ul><li>Expiration Date 02/19/2010 (10 Days to exercise) </li></ul><ul><li>Out of the money by $2.61 (2.15%) </li></ul><ul><li>Leverage of 157 </li></ul><ul><li>Really risky position </li></ul><ul><li>Investment fit our risky strategy </li></ul>
    9. 13. <ul><li>02/03/2010: </li></ul><ul><li>IBM announced an update of their servers and hardware to make them more energy-efficient than their competitors </li></ul><ul><li>02/09/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Market Lower after Snow Day in WallStreet </li></ul></ul><ul><li>02/19/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>IBM Signs three-year, 56 Million Euro Agreement with Slovak Ministry of Finance for integrated Finance system </li></ul></ul>
    10. 14. <ul><li>Symbol Meaning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>PWQ = Prudential Financial Inc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10 = Expiration Year (2010) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>02 = Expiration Month (February) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>20 = Expiration Day (the 20th) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>C = Call Option </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>00050000 = Strike Price ($50.00) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Graph </li></ul>
    11. 15. BP EP $7,490 $50,000 $39,500 <ul><li>02/07/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Quarterly Report Gossips </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>($1.79 billion Net Income) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>02/10/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Disappointing Quarterly Report Data ($1.02 billion Net Income) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hanwha Securities Buys Prudential Inc.’s South Korean Unit </li></ul></ul><ul><li>02/19/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Prudential Financial, Inc. Upgraded by </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Morgan Stanley </li></ul></ul><ul><li>02/18/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Introduction of a New Dental Plan </li></ul></ul>
    12. 16. <ul><li>Symbol Meaning </li></ul><ul><li>Expiration Date 02/19/2010 </li></ul><ul><li>00065000 = Strike Price ($65.00) </li></ul><ul><li>Out of the money by $1.73 </li></ul><ul><li>Leverage of 301 </li></ul><ul><li>Very risky position: Fits our strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Graph </li></ul>
    13. 17. <ul><li>Our Case 2/9/2010 </li></ul><ul><li>MCD betas expectations with 2.6% increase in sales </li></ul><ul><li>Boost the capital investment by 25% during the year </li></ul><ul><li>Worst Case 2/10/2010 </li></ul><ul><li>USA - Market likes McDonalds stock </li></ul><ul><li>MacDonald’s Sale continue to grow </li></ul><ul><li>Best Case 4/6/2010 </li></ul><ul><li>McDonalds Rises To A New Lifetime High </li></ul>$7,133 ($50,001) BE= $65.21 EP=$65.00 ($50,001)
    14. 19. $8 190 ($50 040) ($50 040) 02/10/2010: Comcast Q4 earnings more than doubled and beat Wall Street expectations, but shares fell. Worst Case: Did not exercice 02/10/2010: Could not exercice
    15. 20. <ul><li>Put on: BSX 100320 00008000 </li></ul><ul><li>Symbol Meaning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>BSX = Boston Scientific </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10 = Expiration Year (2010) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>03 = Expiration Month (March) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>20 = Expiration Day (the 20th) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>P = Put Option </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>00008000 = Strike Price ($8.00) </li></ul></ul>BE = $7.60 EP = $8.00
    16. 21. 157,48% $78,720 24,98% $12,490 -100% -$50,000 <ul><li>02/11/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Announced of deceiving results </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Good for us, as we expected </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Largely undervalued compared to the industry </li></ul></ul><ul><li>02/08/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Zacks Analysis of Boston Scientific Corporation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Further announce of good quarterly results expected </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Launch of new clinical program “Platinium Chromium” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>02/19/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Class Action Lawsuit against BSX </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Problem of patent </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Plunge of the stock </li></ul></ul>
    17. 23. <ul><li>Investors Recovers Confidence </li></ul><ul><li>Technical Analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Moving Average </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>4days SMA > 9days SMA > 20days SMA </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>RSI </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Current: 66 (overbought) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bollinger Bands </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Just above the moving average </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Demand & Supply Graph </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Demand Increases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Index’s Value (Price) Increases </li></ul></ul>
    18. 24. 51,240% $51,240.00 -3,,98% $3,980 -28,84% $28,940 <ul><li>03/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Greeks concerned made us think for a rebound of the dollar versus the euro </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Swiss franc hit a peak on the 21 st </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Greek aid: German support </li></ul></ul><ul><li>02/08/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Emergence of the financial crisis in Greece </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>U.S. unemployment rose </li></ul></ul><ul><li>02/23/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>U.S. stock-index increased while the euro snapped a four-day decline versus the dollar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Speculation on manufacturing is recovering around the world. </li></ul></ul>
    19. 25. <ul><li>Fundamental Analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Swiss trade balance rose from a forecast of 1.8 billion to 2.42 billion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inflation rose by 1.00% Y to Y: More than expected </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Unemployment rate rose to 4.5% from 4.4% M to M </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Demand & Supply Graph </li></ul><ul><ul><li>We expected investors to </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>move away from the CHF </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Exchange rate should </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>decrease. </li></ul></ul>
    20. 26. ($20,720) ($27,920) $58,480 <ul><li>03/25/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Expiration Date </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A bigger drop from the CHF was expected </li></ul></ul><ul><li>03/18/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The SNB maintained the LIBOR rate at 0.25% due to sign of economic recovery </li></ul></ul><ul><li>02/18/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Fed rose the discount from 0.5% to 0.75% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Swiss Bank was overvalued </li></ul></ul>
    21. 27. $12 930 ($10 195) $205 145 <ul><li>Cold weather and winter storms have impacts on cattle feeder </li></ul>
    22. 28. <ul><li>Technical Analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Analyst Opinion: Sell </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Demand & Supply Graph </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Declining Market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Investors Exiting their Positions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Demand Decreases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Commodity(Price) Decreases </li></ul></ul>
    23. 29. $71 ($22) ($650) Our Case 2/23/2010 <ul><li>Worst Case 3/10/2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial and precious metals markets is strengthening </li></ul><ul><li>Best Case 2/25/2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Demand for Dollar increase which had a negative impact on Silver’s price </li></ul>
    24. 30. <ul><li>Technical Analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Moving Average </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Current Price > Current 20 Days MA Price </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>RSI </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Current: 67 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bollinger Bands </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Above Upper Band </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Demand & Supply Graph </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Declining Market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Investors Exiting their Positions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Demand Decreases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Index’s Value (Price) Decreases </li></ul></ul>
    25. 31. $2,755 $51,695 $10,405 <ul><li>02/18/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ZEW Economic Expectations (52.5/56.2) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>02/17/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>03/18/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumer Price Index MoM </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(0.10%/0.10%/-0.10%) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>03/16/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Federal Open Market Committee Rate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Decision (0.25/0.25/0.25) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>02/25/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Commodity Price Strongly Increased </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Greek Debt Downgraded by Fitch Ratings </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New Home Sales MoM </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(-11.20%/2.60%/-7.60%) </li></ul></ul>
    26. 34. $3 043,14 ($887, 44) $12 570, 51 2/16/2010: On the path of a merger between British Airways and Iberia 03/09/2010: A strike by British Airways crew cabin 03/25/2010: The boards of British Airways and Iberia approved a merger of the two airlines on March 25.
    27. 35. <ul><li>Sterling declining quite significantly due to the American economy strengthening. </li></ul><ul><li>Bank of England Governor said that the UK’s recovery was fragile with a risk of over-inflation. </li></ul>£1.5099/$ £1.5066/$
    28. 36. !!! <ul><li>Industry Comparison </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Management Effectiveness </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>All Worst than Industry </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Profitability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Strong Losses </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Analysts Opinion </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reuters </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Bearish </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Yahoo! Finance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Bearish </li></ul></ul></ul>
    29. 37. $10 -$11,336 -$11,336 <ul><li>04/05/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Advantest Introduced New Air-Cooled Mainframe for its T2000 Test Platform </li></ul></ul><ul><li>04/05/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Advantest Introduced New Air-Cooled Mainframe for its T2000 Test Platform </li></ul></ul><ul><li>03/04/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>U.S. Maco-economic Indicators </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Depressed the NIKKEI 255 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(Pending Home Sales MoM & Initial </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Jobless Claims) </li></ul></ul>
    30. 38. <ul><li>Hedging the Yen due to our Position on Advantest Corp. </li></ul><ul><li>Indicators showed a strong “BUY” </li></ul><ul><li>Technical Analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Moving Average </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>bullish </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>RSI </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Current: 61 (quite overbought) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>MacD Indicator </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Extremly bullish </li></ul></ul></ul>
    31. 39. <ul><li>03/12/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dollar likely to rise in coming week on U.S. outlook </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Greece continues to weigh on euro zone outlook </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Observed a shift in indicators </li></ul></ul><ul><li>04/02/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Crude prices fall as Dollar soars against Euro and Yen </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dollar hits 7-mo high v. yen </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Japanese investors looking for returns abroad in Q2 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>03/06/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The dollar touched a month low against the yen due to selling by Japanese exporters </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Falling long-term U.S. interest rates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expectations for weak U.S. jobs data. </li></ul></ul>
    32. 40. <ul><li>Industry Comparison </li></ul><ul><li>Management Effectiveness </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Worst than the Industry </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Industry in very bad shape too </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Beta: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>BIR: 2.53 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Industry: 1.23 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Peer Analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2 nd in terms of employees </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>8th in terms of Market Cap </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>13th in terms of Net Income </li></ul></ul>Worst Worst Worst
    33. 41. <ul><li>Analyst Opinion : Sell </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bar Chart: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Bearish </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Yahoo! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Bearish </li></ul></ul></ul>On a long term the BEARISH is stronger, which indicates that the Bank will collapse. 4 indicators out of 6 are BEARISH
    34. 42. <ul><li>Our Case 2/25/2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Issued 184 million new shares to the Government </li></ul><ul><li>Transfert 200 million shares to the Government </li></ul><ul><li>Worst Case 4/16/2010 </li></ul><ul><li>56% increase in impaired loans </li></ul><ul><li>Best Case 3/1/2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Frank Fahey wrong on the banks - again </li></ul><ul><li>(Inaccurate analysis of the state’s taking of a 15.7% shareholding in Bank of Ireland) </li></ul>-0.49% 0.11% -1.13%
    35. 44. <ul><li>Asset Allocation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>79% AAA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3% AA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>11% A </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>7% BBB </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Top Holdings </li></ul><ul><li>Top Sectors </li></ul>
    36. 45. <ul><li>Risk VS Return </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Average Risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High Return </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Beta = 0.52 Industry = 0.75 </li></ul><ul><li>Treynor Ratio: 4.66 </li></ul><ul><li>Sharpe Ratio: 0.35 </li></ul><ul><li>Diversified Portfolio </li></ul><ul><li>Low Risk which fit our strategy </li></ul>
    37. 46. $2,242 $2,729 ($975) <ul><li>04/08/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Loan Agreement for Greece </li></ul></ul><ul><li>04/09/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Last Day of Stocktrak </li></ul></ul><ul><li>02/08/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Impact of European Debt Issues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(Greece & Portugal) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dow Jones down by almost 104 Points </li></ul></ul><ul><li>03/23/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Stocks and Indexes rose on more signs of growth </li></ul></ul>
    38. 47. <ul><li>Management </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tenure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Wise Dynamism Mix </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Category & Investment Style </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mid-Cap Growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>$2 billion < x < $10 billion Mkt Cap. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mid Growth </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Risk VS Return </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Above Average Risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High Return </li></ul></ul>
    39. 48. <ul><li>Asset Allocation </li></ul><ul><li>Top Holdings </li></ul><ul><li>Top Sectors </li></ul>
    40. 49. $11,056 -$3,586 $11,056 <ul><li>04/08/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Loan Agreement for Greece </li></ul></ul><ul><li>04/06/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Federal Reserve Minutes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>04/05/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (55.4/54/53) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>02/08/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing Regulations in the Financial Sector </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Impact of European Debt Issues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(Greece & Portugal) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>02/04/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Disappointing Earnings </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Unexpected Increase in Jobless Claims </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Growing Concerns about Budget Deficits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(Greece, Spain, & Portugal) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>04/08/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Loan Agreement for Greece </li></ul></ul><ul><li>04/06/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Federal Reserve Minutes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>04/05/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (55.4/54/53) </li></ul></ul>
    41. 51. <ul><li>Bond Pepsi Co. : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Coupon Interest Rate: 4.65% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Maturity: 02/15/2013 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Corporate bonds: higher risk than government bonds which means higher interests </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We choose it because PepsiCo delivered solid results for fiscal year 2009 </li></ul></ul>
    42. 52. 0,95% $8,909.00 -0,89% -$8,313.00 2,07% $19,580.00 <ul><li>03/08/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pepsi Co to Buy Back shares Up to $15 Billion </li></ul></ul><ul><li>03/06/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pepsi Co reaffirms its growth target </li></ul></ul><ul><li>03/16/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hugh Johnston To Succeed Richard Goodman As PepsiCo Inc.'s Chief Financial Officer </li></ul></ul><ul><li>03/22/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pepsi Co announced its expected growth rate between 11% and 13% for 2010 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>03/01/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>PepsiCo Inc. Completes Acquisition Of The Pepsi Bottling Group, Inc. And PepsiAmericas, Inc. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>02/29/2010: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Announced a quarterly dividend </li></ul></ul>

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