Commodity Comex Report 31st Jan,2014

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Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude oil

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Commodity Comex Report 31st Jan,2014

  1. 1. Global Research Limited COMEX Report 31st,January
  2. 2. 31st January ,2014 Global Research Limited Global Economic Data DATE TIME: IST DATA PRV EXP IMPACT 31.01.14 7:00 P.M Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1% MEDIUM 31.01.14 7:00 P.M Employment Cost Index q/q 0.4% 0.4% MEDIUM 31.01.14 7:00 P.M Personal Spending m/m 0.5% 0.2% MEDIUM 31.01.14 8:14 P.M Chicago PMI 59.1 59.8 MEDIUM Core PCE Price Index m/m Source Measures Usual Effect Frequency Next Release FF Notes Acro Expand 2 Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release) Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy; Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Mar 3, 2014 Differs from Core CPI in that it only measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item which gives important insights into consumer spending behavior. This is rumored to be the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure, but CPI is released about 15 days earlier and tends to garner most of the attention; Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI); www.capitalvia.com
  3. 3. 31st January ,2014 Global Research Limited Personal Spending m/m Source Measures Usual Effect Frequency Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release) Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers; Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release Mar 3, 2014 FF Notes This is significant data, though it tends to have a relatively mild impact because Retail Sales, which also covers consumer spending, is released about 2 weeks earlier; Why Traders Care Consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. It's one of the most important gauges of economic health due to the vast ripple effect consumer buying creates in the economy; Also Called Consumer Spending, Personal Consumption Expenditures; Chicago PMI Source Measures Usual Effect Frequency Next Release FF Notes Why Traders Care Derived Via 3 MNI (latest release) Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the Chicago area; Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month; Feb 28, 2014 Data is given to MNI subscribers 3 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates expansion, below indicates contraction; It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Survey of around 200 purchasing managers in Chicago which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; www.capitalvia.com
  4. 4. 31st January ,2014 Gold  Global Research Limited On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery traded at USD1,244.00 a troy ounce during Asian trading, up 0.03%.  On Thursday, gold saw a session low of USD1,243.20 and off a high of 1,244.80. The April contract settled at USD1,243.60 on Wednesday.  Futures were likely to find support at USD1,231.30 a troy ounce, the low from Jan. 23, and resistance at USD1,270.10, Wednesday's high.  The dollar rallied after the Commerce Department said gross domestic product expanded 3.2% in the three months to December, in line with most forecasts, even outpacing some, following a 4.1% rise in the third quarter.  Consumer spending rose by 3.3%, the strongest since the fourth quarter of 2010, exports grew by 11.4%, while government consumption shrank, which drew praise from markets.  The data strengthened the dollar by keeping expectations firm for the Federal Reserve to continue trimming its monthly bond-buying program, which weakens the greenback pushing down long-term interest rates, thus making gold an attractive hedge.  Gold prices fluctuated between small gains and losses on Friday after robust U.S. gross domestic product data cemented market expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue dismantling stimulus programs, which fueled demand for the dollar. Silver  Silver settled down -2.67% at 43220 poised to post its first weekly drop in six weeks on Friday as strong U.S. economic growth boosted global equities and the dollar, hurting the metal's safe-haven appeal. Bullion was also under pressure due to the absence of top buyer China, shut for the Lunar New Year holiday. The Fed said Wednesday that it would reduce its monthly bond buying program by USD10 billion to a total of USD65 billion a month, in a widely anticipated decision. The U.S. central bank said growth signals are encouraging, and the unemployment market shows improvement “on balance”.  The Fed left unchanged its statement that interest rates are likely to remain low even after the unemployment rate drops below 6.5%, the threshold at which the central bank has previously said it would start to consider rate increases. The Fed added it will keep a close eye on economic indicators before deciding to wind down its stimulus program even further. The U.S. is to publish preliminary data on fourth quarter economic growth. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data on pending home sales. Also subdued demand from China, usually the biggest support for prices took the sheen off the metal's safe-haven appeal, even as investors shied away from emerging markets and equities.  The data showed personal consumption grew 3.3% in the three months ended December 31, the biggest increase in three years.  4 Silver dropped after data showed that the U.S. economy expanded in line with expectations in the final three months of 2013  Fed said that it will keep a close eye on economic indicators before deciding to wind down its stimulus program even further. www.capitalvia.com
  5. 5. 31st January ,2014   Copper       Crude  Global Research Limited On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery fell to a session low of USD3.231 a pound, the weakest since December 9, before trimming losses to trade at USD3.235 during European morning hours, down 0.15 The March copper contract settled down 0.38% on Wednesday to end at USD3.240 a pound. Copper futures were likely to find support at USD3.217 a pound, the low from December 6 and resistance at USD3.269 a pound, the high from January 29. China's final HSBC Purchasing Managers Index released earlier fell to a six-month low of 49.5 in January, down from a preliminary reading of 49.6 and compared to 50.5 in December. China is the world's largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year. Meanwhile, the Fed said Wednesday that it would reduce its monthly bond buying program by USD10 billion to a total of USD65 billion a month, in a widely anticipated decision. The U.S. central bank said growth signals are encouraging, and the unemployment market shows improvement "on balance". The Fed left unchanged its statement that interest rates are likely to remain low even after the unemployment rate drops below 6.5%, the threshold at which the central bank has previously said it would start to consider rate increases. Copper futures fell to a seven-week low on Thursday, after data confirmed a contraction in China's manufacturing sector and following the Federal Reserve's decision to taper its monthly bond-buying program by USD10 billion for the second consecutive meeting.. On Thursday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD97.91 a barrel and a high of USD98.15 a barrel. The March contract settled at USD97.95 a barrel.  Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD95.22 a barrel, Monday's low, and resistance at USD98.96 a barrel, the high from Jan. 2.  Oil prices gained after the Commerce Department said gross domestic product expanded 3.2% in the three months to December, in line with most forecasts, even outpacing some, following a 4.1% rise in the third quarter.  Exports grew by 11.4%, while federal consumption decreased, which drew particular applause by fanning hopes the private sector will fuel more growth going forward.  The data showed personal consumption grew 3.3% in the three months ended Dec. 31, the biggest increase in three years.  Oil traders shrugged off data confirming a contraction in China's manufacturing sector. China's final HSBC Purchasing Managers Index released earlier fell to a six-month low of 49.5 in January from a preliminary reading of 49.6 and down from 50.5 in December.  On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD98.07 a barrel during Asian trading, up 0.13%. 5 www.capitalvia.com
  6. 6. Global Research Limited Technical levels Support1 Support2 GOLD 1230 1218 1260 1280 SILVER 18.82 18.51 19.58 20.03 COPPER 3.2058 3.1851 3.2528 3.2791 CRUDE 97.51 96.79 98.77 99.31 Resistance1 Resistance2 Disclaimer The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Investment in Stocks has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it & take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above. The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. CapitalVia does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Analyst or any person related to CapitalVia might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as INDEX a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for. Contact Us ROLLOVER Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken. Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Contact Number: Ahmedabad: Corporate Office Address: Hotline : +91-91790-02828 Fax : +91-731-4238085 CapitalVia Global Research Limited Ebony Business Centre 703, Shikhar Complex, Nr. Vadilal House, Mithakali Six Roads, Ahmedabad - 380009 No. 99, 1st Floor, Surya Complex R. V. Road, Basavangudi Opposite Lalbagh West Gate Indore: Singapore: CapitalVia Global Research Limited No. 506 West, Corporate House 169, R. N. T. Marg, Near D. A. V. V CapitalVia Global Research Pvt. Ltd. Block 2 Balestier Road #04-665 Balestier Hill Shopping Centre You Can Send Us DD & Communication @ Postal Address: CapitalVia Global Research Limited, No. 99, 1st Floor, Surya Complex, R. V. Road, Basavanagudi, Opposite Lalbagh West Gate, Bangalore - 560004 www.capitalvia.com

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