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Cardiff University
You MUST include your Student Name here: Alex Edge
Students MUST complete all detailsin Section 1 and include Student Name in the box above
School of Planning and Geography
ASSESSMENT COVER SHEET
Section 1
Student Number (s): c1113835
Module Code: CP0243
Title of Degree: City and Regional Planning
Section 2
(School use only)
MARK AWARDED:
ASSESSOR’S COMMENTS (based on the follow ing, dependent on the nature of the coursework)
(A) SUBSTANCE, (B)STRUCTURE, (C)STYLE AND PRESENTATION, (D) REFERENCING, (E)KEY AREAS FOR IMPROVEMENT
(Please contact the assessor should you wish to discuss this report, or refer to the Marking Guidelines in your student
handbook)

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Geographic Characteristics of Pub Closures in
Rural Wales Between 2007 to 2012.
Developing Research Methods
Student Number: c1113835
School of Geopgraphy and Planning
Cardiff University
27th
March 2014

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Contents
1) Introduction 4
2) Background Analysis 4
3) Variations by Catchment Area 7
4) Discussion, Limitations and Conclusions 10
5) References 10
6) Appendix 11

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1) Introduction
GeographicInformationSystems are mappingpackagesthatcan identifyspatial patterns
(esri,2014). Thisreport shall describe geographiccharacteristicsof pubsinCeredigion,(‘rural
Wales’) toinvestigatepubclosure.Twodatasetswillbe utilised;pubstatisticsfrom2007 to2012
and the 2001 OutputArea Classifications(OACs).OACsare geodemographicclassificationsbasedon
censusdata (OACUserGroup, 2014).
2) Background Analysis
Datasource:Orford, 2014.

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Datasource:Orford, 2014.
Map 2: Average monthlyturnover of pubs by equal intervalsin rural Wales(2007).

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Table 1: Basic statistics of all pubs in rural Wales (2007).
Turnover in 2007
Mean (average) 4586.5
StandardDeviation 2746.358088
Sum 183460
Maximum 10780
Minimum 1590
Count(Numberof pubs) 40
CV 0.59879169
Numberof unique values 38
Range 9190
Median 2950
Table 2: Group statistics of all pubs in rural Wales (2007).
Open Closed
Mean (average) 5574.14 1982.73
StandardDeviation 2614.94 220.79
Sum 161650 21810
Maximum 10780 2280
Minimum 1850 1590
Count(numberof pubs) 29 11
Median 5600 2050
Variance 6837920.81 48747.11
The minimumturnoverof anopenpubis £1850.00 (see table 2).However,pubsproducinga
higherturnoverhave closed;the maximumturnoverof aclosedpubis£2280. This isjust21.2% of
maximumopenpubturnover (£10780). The meanturnoverof closedpubsis£3591.41 lower/35.6%
of openpubs turnover.The standarddeviation(S.D.) of closedpubsis2394.15 lower/8.4% of open
pubsS.D. Openpubturnoverhasa greaterspread.

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3) Variations by Catchment Area
Datasource:Orford, 2014.
Map 3: Catchmentareas ofall pubs in rural Walesfrom 2007 to 2012.

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Table 3: Count and percentage of OACs located within 3km
catchment areas of all pubs from 2007 to 2012.
Table 4: Count and percentage of OACs located within 3km
catchment areas of closed pubs by 2012.
Output Area Classification Total Count Percentage (%) Output Area Classification Total Count Percentage (%)
Accessible Countryside 83 9.96 Accessible Countryside 15 7.89
Agricultural 167 20.05 Agricultural 57 30.00
AspiringHouseholds 8 0.96 AspiringHouseholds 2 1.05
LeastDivergent 88 10.56 LeastDivergent 14 7.37
OlderBlue Collar 22 2.64 OlderBlue Collar 2 1.05
OlderWorkers 43 5.16 OlderWorkers 3 1.58
ProsperingOlderFamilies 15 1.80 ProsperingOlderFamilies 2 1.05
PublicHousing 8 0.96 PublicHousing 2 1.05
Settledinthe City 122 14.65 Settledinthe City 30 15.79
Terrace Blue Collar 8 0.96 Terrace Blue Collar 2 1.05
ThrivingSuburbs 17 2.04 ThrivingSuburbs 4 2.11
TransientCommunities 48 5.76 TransientCommunities 12 6.32
Village Life 116 13.93 Village Life 25 13.16
Young Blue Collar 55 6.60 Young Blue Collar 11 5.79
Young FamiliesinTerracedHomes 33 3.96 Young FamiliesinTerracedHomes 9 4.74
TOTAL 833 100.00 TOTAL 190 100.00
KEY:
Colour
Percentage change from
Table 4 to Table 3 (%)
+ 1-5%
+ 0-1%
- 0-1%
- 1-5%
> -5%
Tables3 & 4 are shadedto highlightpubclosureswithinparticularOACs.OACsshadedin
blue accountfor a higherpercentage of closedpubcatchmentareas.Specifically,“Agricultural”and
“Settledinthe City(SitC)”are the twohighesttotal countof OACs within catchmentareas,57 and 30
respectively.
“Agricultural”countsfor30% of OACswithinclosedpubcatchmentareascomparedwith
20.05% for all pubs.In closedpubareas,“SitC”is1.24% higherthanfor catchmentareas of all pubs.
The OACs inlightblue are 0.06%-0.56% higherthanforcatchmentareas of all pubs.

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Table 5: Turnover of all pubs by Output Area Classifications within catchment areas from 2007 to
2012.
Output Area Classifications Maximum Minimum Mean (average)
Standard
Deviation
Accessible Countryside 10780 1590 5133.13 2403.20
Agricultural 10780 1590 4570.84 2872.48
AspiringHouseholds 8790 1590 5193.75 2306.11
LeastDivergent 10780 1590 4556.36 2529.42
OlderBlue Collar 8790 1590 3726.82 2067.05
OlderWorkers 10780 1590 3606.51 2394.63
ProsperingOlderFamilies 8790 1590 4154.67 2259.49
PublicHousing 8790 1590 5165.00 2343.39
Settledinthe City 10780 1590 5221.56 2350.62
Terrace Blue Collar 8790 1590 5165.00 2343.39
ThrivingSuburbs 8790 1590 5270.59 2258.27
TransientCommunities 8790 1590 5193.75 2306.11
Village Life 10780 1590 4795.00 2751.83
Young Blue Collar 10780 1590 4567.27 2485.09
Young FamiliesinTerracedHomes 8790 1590 5098.48 2333.97
TOTAL 145780.00 23850 71418.73 36005.05
AVERAGE 9718.67 1590.00 4761.25 2400.34
Table 6: Turnover of closed pubs by Output Area Classifications within catchment areas from
2007 to 2012.
Output Area Classifications Maximum Minimum Mean (average)
Standard
Deviation
Accessible Countryside 2280 1590 1927.33 323.82
Agricultural 2280 1590 1982.81 203.39
AspiringHouseholds 2280 1590 1935.00 345.00
LeastDivergent 2280 1590 1921.43 298.97
OlderBlue Collar 2280 1590 1935.00 345.00
OlderWorkers 2280 1590 1973.33 286.86
ProsperingOlderFamilies 2280 1590 1935.00 345.00
PublicHousing 2050 1590 1820.00 230.00
Settledinthe City 2280 1590 1935.00 345.00
Terrace Blue Collar 2050 1590 1820.00 230.00
ThrivingSuburbs 2280 1590 1935.00 345.00
TransientCommunities 2280 1590 1935.00 345.00
Village Life 2280 1590 1995.20 217.96
Young Blue Collar 2280 1590 1861.82 256.08
Young FamiliesinTerracedHomes 2280 1590 1947.78 327.27
TOTAL 33740.00 23850 28859.70 4444.35
AVERAGE 2249.33 1590.00 1923.98 296.29

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Tables5 & 6 showthat the catchmentarea of the pub withminimumturnover (£1590)
ecompassed everyOAC.The catchmentareaof all/closedpubswithmaximumturnover
(£10780/£2280 respectively) intersectedwithmultiple OACsincluding“Agricultural”and“SitC”. The
largestmeanturnoverof all/closedpubsis£5270.59 (“ThrivingSuburbs”) and£1982.81
(“Agriculture”) respectively. The smallestmeanturnoverof all/closedpubsis£3605.51 (“Older
Workers”) and£1820 (“PublicHousing”) respectively. “Agricultural”featuresthe largestS.D.
(2872.48) of all pub turnoverandsmallest(203.39) of closedpubs.
4) Discussion, Limitations and Conclusions
The mean andS.D. of closedpubturnoverforall OACs is~40% and ~12.4% respecitvelyof all
pubs. Closedpubsfeature lowturnoverbetween£1590-£2280, suggestingahigherturnoveris
neededtocontinue business. Yet,table 1shows the minimumturnoverforanopenpubis £1850,
there mustbe a contextual reasonforthe pubto stayopen.For example,astrategicnecessitybythe
ownerwhomay use the pubto complimentadditional ventures.
Tables3-4 indicate thatOACsof the ‘+1-5%’ categoryare linkedtocontinuedpubbusiness.
Furthermore,the tableshighlightthathigherpercentagepresence of“Agricultural”and“SitC”OACs
inclosedpubbufferzones identifiesthemas poorfor publichouse business. Conversely, table 6
showsthat “Agricultural”offersthe secondhighestmeanturnoverforclosedpubs.Thisreportshall
conclude byinvestigatinglimitationstoexplain contradictionsabove.
Thisreportlargelycomparesall pubsto closedpubs.Comparingopentoclosedpubswould
more clearlyrepresentthe differencesinturnoverandOACstatistics.Maps1-3 feature a scale issue
where pubscluster,map4 (appendix)isanappropriate solutionthatvisualisespubsonacloser
scale. Finally,maps6-7(appendix) show thatdatafroman entire OACisaccountedfor whenthe
bufferzone intersectioniswiththe tipof anOAC.The significance of the OACshouldbe reducedby
the percentage of itslandwithinpubcatchmentarea.
Word count: 549
5) References
Esri.2014. Overview:Whatis GIS? [Online].
Available at:http://www.esri.com/what-is-gis/overview#overview_panel
[Accessed:25 March 2014].
OutputAreaClassificationUserGroup - OAC.2014. THE OUTPUTAREA CLASSIFICATION [Online].
Available at:http://areaclassification.org.uk/
[Accessed:25 March 2014].

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6) Appendix
Datasource:Orford, 2014.
Map 4: Close-upofpubopeningand closuresinrural Walesfrom 2007 to 2012.

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Datasource:Orford, 2014.
Map 5: Average monthlyturnover of pubs by quantilesin rural Wales(2007).

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Map 6: Intersection of all pub catchment areas and OACs in rural Wales from 2007 to 2012.
OACs within
catchment area
Datasource:Orford, 2014.

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OACs within
catchment area
Datasource:Orford, 2014.