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2012 Presidential French ElectionDocument Transcript
communication, strategy & leadership architects French Presidential Election #2012 Photo: El País #newCommunication #newLeadership #newPolitics 1 www.ingenia-‐pro.com @ingenia_pro
communication, strategy & leadership architects 1. What Europe will change if Hollande wins? Chancellor Merkel, the European schoolteacher, wont rule EU economic policy anymore with the strength which she did until now. The time has come to reach a new deal with president Hollande. -‐ If the question is how is the debate between "Austerity budget" vs. "Economic Growth" on Sunday night, the answer will be like a deuce in home camp. The new deal will not question the need to advance of a EU state members balanced budgets goal but the pace to get there: more slowly and clearly focusing on growth. Keynes remains the model. Even is the answer for Germany to see its own growth not fading. -‐ As far as European integration will have a new opportunity to promote a definitive global economic governance and also the need to move forward federally construction of the common financial and fiscal policy. -‐ Unfortunately EU Foreign and Security policy is still a "dream" filed indefinitely. -‐ But the European alliance, the real soul and rationale of the French-‐German main goal to move European integration forward, will remain intact. -‐ For the European social-‐democracy will be a new time, a relaunch, a new renaissance. The politically interested argument explaining that this economic crisis is a punishment of social-‐democracy governments in Europe, the Sunday second election leg will show that it was not fair even true, and that conservative governments are so exposed to electoral failure as the social-‐democrats ones. Important alliance: France and Denmark plus Hollande & Obama. Hollandes victory will help to consolidate Ed Miliband British Labour leadership & momentum. The exit of the intensive care unit where the European social democracy is. #newCommunication #newLeadership #newPolitics 2 www.ingenia-‐pro.com @ingenia_pro
communication, strategy & leadership architects 2. Prime Minister Rajoy is interested in a Hollande win? The non charismatic Hollande win in France, will be oxygen of Spanish socialist PSOE charismatic Rubalcaba. Rubalcaba & Hollande maintain close and regular contact. Hollande has echoed the PSOE0s grieve about Sarkozy charges on the Spanish model. Rubalcaba has been the driving force behind this gesture and publicly thanked the position of the French Socialist candidate. The charismatic President Sarkozy and not charismatic Prime Minister Rajoy, maintain good harmony in a unequal’s relationship. Rajoy has offered to help the French campaign, Sarkozy have kindly said: no thanks. France is concerned with a fragile Spanish with difficulties and low weight in Europe and the world, therefore if it is with Zapatero or Rajoy. Lets pay attention to the French-‐American energy companies’ movements on the nationalization of Spanish assets in Latin America. 3. Will Hollande be the growing economic policies based key factor in Europe? Europa? Hollande will try to reach a deal with Merkel to make growth economic policy the spine, the being reason of the EU. European Parliament German President Schulz and the German Social-‐democrats will be key agents on this goal. Hollande will add Denmark, Italy and the rescued states -‐ Portugal, Ireland and Greece, who have lived in their own skin the German iron law -‐ sometimes humiliating -‐ imposed by Chancellor Merkel. The White House, the Treasury Secretary Geitner, Ben Bernanke and Christine Lagarde will also pressure to get the current growth path. #newCommunication #newLeadership #newPolitics 3 www.ingenia-‐pro.com @ingenia_pro
communication, strategy & leadership architects 4. What Europe will change if Sarkozy wins? At lElysee Krugman and Stiglitz ideas and economic values are not considered strange or alien. Election time and the acting politics of President Sarkozy are running out. He embraced Merkel policies by necessity and had no choice. Even a Sarkozys victory would favor a shift in the balance between the debate between "Austerity vs. Growth". Sarkozy with election finished will stem the German absolute dogma. Europe is experiencing a fragile political, economic and institutional reality. Not bailing out Greece, or leave out the Euro, is worse than a rescue. Dropping the Euro and a EU deconstruction on a key nationalist state based policy would be a no return path, with unpredictable consequences especially for fragile states of the Union (the south). The European integration process is paralyzed. Europe is on track to be an insignificant player at the counter of the global powers. The fear that Europe will be invisible, and can not display a significant role under China, India, USA and Brazil, should be a powerful driver to turns the momentum of European integration: federalism and foreign policy are needed more than ever. 5. What will be the elections result? Will Sarkozy overcome? Although surveys are increasingly unreliable and despite the drop in vote turnout, no one points to the victory of President Sarkozy. The trend of increasing Hollande advantage over the president in recent days has been broken, stopped the coup, there is even a comeback, but the distance is important. Between 6 and 10 points. But the election night will be longer than expected and very exciting. Attention to the nightly speeches. If there’d be a French #11s or a #11m, the victory of the socialist candidate is assured. #newCommunication #newLeadership #newPolitics 4 www.ingenia-‐pro.com @ingenia_pro
communication, strategy & leadership architects 6. Hollande will unify the left vote? And the center vote? Hollandes leadership is extremely fragile and weak. Hes is not charismatic leader. He doesnt connect with voters. Hollande will regroup the anti-‐Sarkozy vote, not a vote of confidence or excited left. Neither the center. French people want to end a political style and a very specific to a hyper leadership filled with excess and control. The economy also punishes conservative governments. What will surely Hollande starting Sunday will succeed, is on appointing on cabinet and key government positions of the presidency to personalities on the left, the green movement and even chiraquistas, as Dominique de Villepin or Bayrou, to capitalize and position himself as the acting role in the central and main French political desk. Building the credibility of the new president will start cruising speed. Like Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy, his popularity is very fragile and will begin to drop rapidly as decisions are made. The Socialists will receive the anti-‐Sarkozy vote by the right and left. This is a not an owned vote, unenthusiastic and unconvinced. 7. Despite of Sarkozys lepenization, will the centrist vote go to the president? Lepenization intensifies the idea of Sarkozy support needed, fragile and weak, the desperate, who is facing a long long the campaign. Far away from the center but seeking complicity with lepenism, which is the 3rd political force. Marine Le Pen wants to be the benchmark in the French center-‐right arena. So she needs this electoral & social space leadership orphaned. This will exists with a Hollandes. As much as she openly advocates voting Hollande, her bases would not follow her. This facilitates the centrist vote elects, as a lesser evil, for Hollandes option. @aleixcuberes is partner & consultant at @ingenia_pro. #newCommunication #newLeadership #newPolitics 5 www.ingenia-‐pro.com @ingenia_pro