2012 Presidential French Election


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2012 Presidential French Election

  1. 1. communication,  strategy  &  leadership  architects                                               French  Presidential  Election    #2012                                                                                                                     Photo:  El  País               #newCommunication  #newLeadership  #newPolitics   1   www.ingenia-­‐pro.com                            @ingenia_pro      
  2. 2. communication,  strategy  &  leadership  architects                                 1.  What  Europe  will  change  if  Hollande  wins?         Chancellor   Merkel,   the   European   schoolteacher,   wont   rule   EU   economic   policy   anymore  with  the  strength  which  she  did  until  now.  The  time  has  come  to  reach  a  new   deal  with  president  Hollande.     -­‐   If   the   question   is   how   is   the   debate   between   "Austerity   budget"   vs.   "Economic   Growth"  on  Sunday  night,  the  answer  will  be  like  a  deuce  in  home  camp.     The  new  deal  will  not  question  the  need  to  advance  of  a  EU  state  members  balanced   budgets   goal   but   the   pace   to   get   there:   more   slowly   and   clearly   focusing   on   growth.   Keynes  remains  the  model.  Even  is  the  answer  for  Germany  to  see  its  own  growth  not   fading.     -­‐  As  far  as  European   integration  will  have  a  new  opportunity  to  promote  a  definitive   global  economic  governance  and  also  the  need  to  move  forward  federally  construction   of  the  common  financial  and  fiscal  policy.     -­‐  Unfortunately  EU  Foreign  and  Security  policy  is  still  a  "dream"  filed  indefinitely.     -­‐   But   the   European   alliance,   the   real   soul   and   rationale   of   the   French-­‐German   main   goal  to  move  European  integration  forward,  will  remain  intact.     -­‐   For   the   European   social-­‐democracy   will   be   a   new   time,   a   relaunch,   a   new   renaissance.  The  politically  interested  argument  explaining  that  this  economic  crisis  is   a   punishment     of   social-­‐democracy   governments   in   Europe,   the   Sunday   second   election   leg   will   show   that   it   was   not   fair   even   true,   and   that   conservative   governments  are  so  exposed  to  electoral  failure  as  the  social-­‐democrats  ones.     Important  alliance:  France  and  Denmark  plus  Hollande  &  Obama.   Hollandes   victory   will   help   to   consolidate   Ed   Miliband   British   Labour   leadership   &   momentum.   The  exit  of  the  intensive  care  unit  where  the  European  social  democracy  is.       #newCommunication  #newLeadership  #newPolitics   2   www.ingenia-­‐pro.com                            @ingenia_pro      
  3. 3. communication,  strategy  &  leadership  architects                                 2.  Prime  Minister  Rajoy  is  interested  in  a  Hollande  win?     The  non  charismatic  Hollande  win  in  France,  will  be  oxygen  of  Spanish  socialist  PSOE   charismatic   Rubalcaba.   Rubalcaba   &   Hollande   maintain   close   and   regular   contact.   Hollande  has  echoed  the  PSOE0s  grieve  about  Sarkozy  charges  on  the  Spanish  model.   Rubalcaba   has   been   the   driving   force   behind   this   gesture   and   publicly   thanked   the   position  of  the  French  Socialist  candidate.     The  charismatic  President  Sarkozy  and  not  charismatic  Prime  Minister  Rajoy,  maintain   good   harmony   in   a   unequal’s   relationship.   Rajoy   has   offered   to   help   the   French   campaign,  Sarkozy  have  kindly  said:  no  thanks.     France   is   concerned   with   a   fragile   Spanish   with   difficulties   and   low   weight   in   Europe   and   the   world,   therefore   if   it   is   with   Zapatero   or   Rajoy.   Lets   pay   attention   to   the   French-­‐American   energy   companies’   movements   on   the   nationalization   of   Spanish   assets  in  Latin  America.       3.  Will  Hollande  be  the  growing  economic  policies     based  key  factor  in  Europe?   Europa?     Hollande   will   try   to   reach   a   deal   with   Merkel   to   make   growth   economic   policy     the   spine,  the  being  reason  of  the  EU.  European  Parliament  German  President  Schulz  and   the  German  Social-­‐democrats  will  be  key  agents  on  this  goal.     Hollande  will  add  Denmark,  Italy  and  the  rescued  states  -­‐  Portugal,  Ireland  and  Greece,   who   have   lived   in   their   own   skin   the   German   iron   law   -­‐   sometimes   humiliating   -­‐   imposed  by  Chancellor  Merkel.     The  White  House,  the  Treasury  Secretary  Geitner,  Ben  Bernanke  and  Christine  Lagarde   will  also  pressure  to  get  the  current  growth  path.       #newCommunication  #newLeadership  #newPolitics   3   www.ingenia-­‐pro.com                            @ingenia_pro      
  4. 4. communication,  strategy  &  leadership  architects                                 4.  What  Europe  will  change  if  Sarkozy  wins?       At  lElysee  Krugman  and  Stiglitz  ideas  and  economic  values  are  not  considered  strange   or  alien.  Election  time  and  the  acting  politics  of  President  Sarkozy  are  running  out.  He   embraced   Merkel   policies   by   necessity   and   had   no   choice.   Even   a   Sarkozys   victory   would   favor   a   shift   in   the   balance   between   the   debate   between   "Austerity   vs.   Growth".  Sarkozy  with  election  finished  will  stem  the  German  absolute  dogma.     Europe  is  experiencing  a  fragile  political,  economic  and  institutional  reality.  Not  bailing   out   Greece,   or   leave   out   the   Euro,   is   worse   than   a   rescue.   Dropping   the   Euro   and   a   EU   deconstruction   on   a   key   nationalist   state   based   policy   would   be   a   no   return   path,   with   unpredictable  consequences  especially  for  fragile  states  of  the  Union  (the  south).     The  European  integration  process  is  paralyzed.  Europe  is  on  track  to  be  an  insignificant   player  at  the  counter  of  the  global  powers.  The  fear  that  Europe  will  be  invisible,  and   can   not   display   a   significant   role   under   China,   India,   USA   and   Brazil,   should   be   a   powerful   driver   to   turns   the   momentum   of   European   integration:   federalism   and   foreign  policy  are  needed  more  than  ever.       5.  What  will  be  the  elections  result?     Will  Sarkozy  overcome?       Although  surveys   are   increasingly   unreliable  and  despite  the  drop  in  vote  turnout,  no   one  points  to  the  victory  of  President  Sarkozy.     The  trend  of  increasing  Hollande  advantage  over  the  president  in  recent  days  has  been   broken,   stopped   the   coup,   there   is   even   a   comeback,   but   the   distance   is   important.   Between   6   and   10   points.   But   the   election   night   will   be   longer   than   expected   and   very   exciting.  Attention  to  the  nightly  speeches.     If  there’d  be  a  French  #11s  or  a  #11m,  the  victory  of  the  socialist  candidate  is  assured.   #newCommunication  #newLeadership  #newPolitics   4   www.ingenia-­‐pro.com                            @ingenia_pro      
  5. 5. communication,  strategy  &  leadership  architects                                 6.  Hollande  will  unify  the  left  vote?     And  the  center  vote?       Hollandes  leadership  is  extremely  fragile  and  weak.  Hes  is  not  charismatic  leader.  He   doesnt  connect  with  voters.  Hollande  will  regroup  the  anti-­‐Sarkozy  vote,  not  a  vote  of   confidence   or   excited   left.   Neither   the   center.   French   people   want   to   end   a   political   style   and   a   very   specific   to   a   hyper   leadership   filled   with   excess   and   control.   The   economy  also  punishes  conservative  governments.     What   will   surely   Hollande   starting   Sunday   will   succeed,   is   on   appointing   on   cabinet   and   key   government   positions  of  the  presidency  to  personalities  on  the  left,  the  green   movement   and   even   chiraquistas,   as   Dominique   de   Villepin   or   Bayrou,   to   capitalize   and   position   himself   as   the   acting   role   in   the   central   and   main   French   political   desk.   Building   the   credibility   of   the   new   president   will   start   cruising   speed.   Like   Spanish   Prime   Minister   Rajoy,   his   popularity   is   very   fragile   and   will   begin   to   drop   rapidly   as   decisions  are  made.     The  Socialists  will  receive  the  anti-­‐Sarkozy  vote  by  the  right  and  left.  This  is  a  not  an   owned  vote,  unenthusiastic  and  unconvinced.       7.  Despite  of  Sarkozys  lepenization,    will  the  centrist  vote  go  to  the  president?     Lepenization   intensifies   the   idea   of   Sarkozy   support   needed,   fragile   and   weak,   the   desperate,   who   is   facing     a   long   long   the   campaign.   Far   away   from   the   center   but   seeking  complicity  with  lepenism,  which  is  the  3rd  political  force.     Marine   Le   Pen   wants   to   be   the   benchmark   in   the   French   center-­‐right   arena.   So   she   needs   this   electoral   &   social   space   leadership   orphaned.   This   will   exists   with   a   Hollandes.   As   much   as   she   openly   advocates   voting   Hollande,   her   bases   would   not   follow   her.   This   facilitates   the   centrist   vote   elects,   as   a   lesser   evil,   for   Hollandes   option.     @aleixcuberes  is  partner  &  consultant  at  @ingenia_pro.     #newCommunication  #newLeadership  #newPolitics   5   www.ingenia-­‐pro.com                            @ingenia_pro