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CCA Annual Convention Keynote: Quenching the Thirst for Mobile Broadband by Mike Schabel

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Once mobile subscribers experience the taste of great mobile broadband, they want and expect more of it. The only way to satisfy this demand is through unmatched Quality of Service. For Competitive …

Once mobile subscribers experience the taste of great mobile broadband, they want and expect more of it. The only way to satisfy this demand is through unmatched Quality of Service. For Competitive Carriers, this means maximizing coverage and capacity by scaling their networks to provide the mobile broadband experience customers expect.

Keynote address given at the CCA Annual Convention on September 17, 2013 by Michael J. Schabel, Ph.D., Vice President, Alcatel-Lucent Wireless Division.

Full video available: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO57oh2_0iQ

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  • 1. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 1 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Quenching the Thirst for Data: Maximizing Your Most Precious Asset, Spectrum Mike Schabel Sept. 17th, 2013
  • 2. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 2 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Nokia N90 2 megapixel DEVICE CAPABILITY TRENDS MORE MEGAPIXELS, LARGER SCREENS, FASTER PROCESSORS 2011 2012 2013200720052002 Sanyo SCP 5300 0.3 megapixel Nokia N95 5 megapixel HTC EVO 3D 5 megapixel – 3D! Nokia Lumia 1020 41 megapixel Samsung S4 16 megapixeliPhone 5 8 megapixel iPhone 5s, 16 megapixel 64-bit software, 40x faster then original iPhone
  • 3. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 3 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ADOPTION RATE OF MOBILE “COMPUTERS” DRIVE THE NEED FOR A WIRELESS ULTRABROADBAND NETWROK TABLETS DRIVE A WHOLESALE SHIFT TO CLOUD SERVICES (AND WIRELESS ULTRA BROADBAND)
  • 4. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 4 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Quarters After Launch 25 30 15 20 35 10 5 0 40 6543210 iPod iPhone iPad Globalshipments(mm) CAGR 2012-2015 Smartphones = 22% Tablets = 35% 10 Blackberries = 1 iPhone 3 iPhones = 1 iPad 3 iPads = 1 data card DEVICE PENETRATION TRAFFIC BY DEVICE TRAFFIC BY TYPE Source: Bell Labs modeling, 2012 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Traffic(EB/month) ‘16‘15‘14‘13‘12‘11‘16‘15‘14‘13‘12‘11 M2M Dongle/Tablet Smartphone Feature phone All other File transfer Video comms Audio stream Video stream 4.2 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 45x – 85x growth in mobile traffic CONSUMER MARKET TRENDS MOBILE DEVICE CAPABILITIES DRIVE CONSUMPTION
  • 5. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 5 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. • EXPONENTIAL DATA TRAFFIC GROWTH • EXPONENTIAL CAPEX EXPENSE GROWTH • RELATIVELY FLAT DATA ARPU GROWTH WHERE DOES YOUR PROFITABILITY END? HISTORICAL SERVICE PROVIDER ECONOMICS LOWER PER BIT COST SOLUTIONS NEED TO BE DEPLOYED IF PROFITABILITY IS TO BE MAINTAINED Source: Bell Labs Analysis 0 5 10 15 20 25 35 40 45 50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 $/sub/month 0 200 400 600 1000 1400 1600 Mb/dataplansub/month DATA ARPUCAPEXDATA TRAFFIC 30 800 1200 1800 DATA ARPU CAPEX DATA TRAFFIC
  • 6. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 6 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 2x >10x1.5-2x MORE SPECTRUM (Hz) MORE SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz) MORE SPATIAL EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz/Sub) INCREASE CAPACITY THREE METHODS TO MAXIMIZE SPECTRUM ADDRESSING THE THIRST FOR DATA
  • 7. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 7 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. INDUSTRY RESPONSE – MORE/FREE SPECTRUM AT&T Wi-Fi MOBILITY CASE STUDY "All of our smartphones are sold with Wi-Fi capability. We know that our users are aware of the Wi-Fi availability and the AT&T brand on our hotspots. We know demand is coming from our customers. They appreciate just being able to connect everywhere." Aaron Coleman, director of product management, AT&T Wi-Fi Services OVER 32K HOTSPOTS IN THE US OVER 402K HOTSPOTS WORLDWIDE HOTSPOTS IN MORE THAN 100 COUNTRIES 2.7 B CONNECTIONS IN 2012 80% CONNECTIONS MADE BY AT&T MOBILITY CUSTOMERS Source: AT&T 2013 1 2 3 DEPLOY WI-FI IN HOTSPOTS FORM INTERNATIONAL ROAMING AGREEMENTS ENCOURAGE CELLULAR SUBSCRIBERS TO USE WI-FI FREE FREE, UNLIMITED ACCESS AUTOMATIC CONNECTIONS DOES NOT COUNT AGAINST MOBILE DATA PLAN 4 THE RESULTS MORE SPECTRUM
  • 8. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 8 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. CARRIER GRADE Wi-Fi HOTSPOT 2.0 & ANDSF Wi-Fi@Home Homespots Private Hotspots Metro Hotspots Citynets Mi-Fi Carrier Cloud Internet IP edge WLAN Gateway Wireless packet core • Wi-Fi TO Wi-Fi & Wi-Fi TO 3G/4G INTERWORKING • DEVICE SELECTS BEST Wi-Fi • ACCESS BASED ON SIM – NO USER INTERVENTION • AUTOMATICALLY DETECT ROAMING RELATIONSHIPS MORE SPECTRUM
  • 9. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 9 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. WHAT IS LTE WHAT IS LTE & WHO IS DEPLOYING MARKET HAS MOVED – LAGGARDS WON’T BE REWARDED SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY LTE INCREASES CAPACITY, PEAK RATES & COVERAGE • Increased link capacity • Multiple-input, multiple-output UL & DL • Collaborative MIMO (UL) • Overcome multi-path interference FLAT IP, SCALABLE MIMO INCREASED SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY • OFDMA (DL) / SC-FDMA (UL) • Simplified Rx design, Cheaper UE • Scalable - go beyond 5 MHz limitation • Reduction in number of logical nodes • Separation of user plane and control plane • Backhaul based on IP / MPLS transport FROM AN ERLANG TO BIT MODEL WHO HAS DEPLOYED LTE IN NA
  • 10. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 10 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Source: Alcatel-Lucent 20% Volume increase/day Throughput (kbps) Latency (ms) Packet Loss (%) 3G LTE iPhone 5 Performance 3G vs LTE 347% -53% -40% LTE PERFORMANCE IMPROVED CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY
  • 11. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 11 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MIGRATION TO LTE IS PAYING OFF DATA ARPU GROWING LTE SUBSCRIBERS SPENDING MORE ON MOBILE DATA DRIVING HIGHER ARPU Source: Mobidata Average Usage by Technology 45% 23% 37% 60% 32% 45% Japan South Korea US Data ARPU as % of Total ARPU 2011 2013 Source: Alcatel-Lucent Data Led ARPU Growth SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY
  • 12. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 12 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. DEPLOYING LTE WHY OVERLAY IS BETTER THEN CRAN Overlay minimizes potentially costly disruptions Overlay: better RF coverage, BBU capacity, less SW complexity, and greater flexibility in terms of coverage NEED DEDICATED PERFORMANCE CAP INVESTMENT IN 2G/3G AVOID DISRUPTION OF 2G/3G NETWORKS SPEED TO MARKET Interoperability with other vendor equipmentAVOID VENDOR LOCK-IN Respond quickly to market competition. Overlay is faster and easier to deploy than CRAN. Cap 2G/3G spend and refarm spectrum towards a more cost effective 4G LTE network SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY
  • 13. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 13 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. VoLTE DEPLOYMENT CREATE A SINGLE NETWORK (4G) – SUNSET 2G/3G Robust Header Control (RoHC) and Transmission Time Interval (TTI) bundling boost UE power at the cell edge. VoLTE’s wide band enables HD voice with background noise filtration. Deposition OTTs. HIGHER QoE (HD VOICE) SIMULTANEOUS 4G VOICE AND DATA BETTER CELL EDGE PERFORMANCE GREATER SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY For a 10 MHz band, VoLTE offers as much as a 700% capacity gain vs. GSM CS voice. Single antenna, lower cost, better battery life. No need to “fall back” to 3G speed. REDUCE 2G/3G INVESTMENT BY OFFERING 4G VOICE & VIDEO OVER LTE - REFARM THE SPECTRUM MORE SPECTRUM
  • 14. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 14 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. CARRIER AGGREGATION FOR COMBINING MULTIPLE LTE CARRIERS 20 MHz FREQ CO-ORDINATED MULTI-POINT (COMP) INTERFERENCE AVOIDANCE NETWORK MIMO DL 300 Mb/s UL 75 Mb/s 20MHz 4x4 MIMO DL 3 Gb/s UL 1.5 Gb/s 100 MHz (CA) 8x8 MIMO TARGETS FOR PEAK RATE SON & HetNet ENHANCEMENTS (eICIC, Cov/Cap Optimization) MIMO ENHANCEMENTS (MU, SU uplink and downlink) REL 10, 11 LTE LTE-ADVANCED 20 MHz SPECTRUM MAXIMIZATION: LTE-ADVANCED HIGHER THROUGHPUT, PEAK RATE, SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY GREATER EXPERIENCE AND GREATER NETWORK EFFICIENCIES SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY
  • 15. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 15 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. SPECTRUM MAXIMIZATION: SMALL CELLS GREATER SPATIAL EFFICIENCY RESIDENTIAL ENTERPRISE METRO HOMES OFFICES PUBLIC PLACES CONSUMER OWNED BUSINESS OWNED OPERATOR OWNED PRIVATE INDOOR USE PRIVATE/PUBLIC INDOOR USE PUBLIC INDOOR/OUTDOOR USE • UTILIZES EXISTING SPECTRUM • COVERAGE & CAPACITY • RAPIDLY DEPLOYABLE (PLUG AND PLAY) • IMPROVED CUSTOMER LOYALTY • LOWER COST TO SERVE • INNOVATIVE APPLICATIONS • PROVEN – COMMERCIALLY DEPLOYED GLOBALLY SPATIAL EFFICIENCY
  • 16. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 16 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 2x >10x1.5-2x MORE SPECTRUM (Hz) MORE SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz) MORE SPATIAL EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz/Sub) INCREASE CAPACITY QUENCHING THE MOBILE DATA THIRST • Wi-Fi • HOTSPOT 2.0 / ANDSF • VoLTE (REFARM 2G/3G) • AUCTIONS • LTE • LTE-ADVANCED • VoLTE • SMALL CELLS
  • 17. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 17 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.