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Dr. Susan Shaheen - North American CarSharing: 2012-2013 Outlook
 

Dr. Susan Shaheen - North American CarSharing: 2012-2013 Outlook

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    Dr. Susan Shaheen - North American CarSharing: 2012-2013 Outlook Dr. Susan Shaheen - North American CarSharing: 2012-2013 Outlook Presentation Transcript

    • Our Sponsors
    • North American Carsharing: 2012-2013 Outlook Susan Shaheen, Ph.D. Adjunct Professor, Civil and Envt’l Engineering Co-Director, Transportation Sustainability Research Center University of California, Berkeley 2013 CarSharing Association Conference September 16-17, 2013
    • Overview • Evolution • Worldwide and North American data/understanding • Trends & developments • One-way carsharing • Personal vehicle sharing • Autonomous vehicles • New TSRC carsharing research • Key questions & upcoming summit
    • 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Carsharing Phases in North America 1990 1994 to mid-2002 mid-2002 to late-2007 late-2007 to present
    • 2006 2008 2010 2012 South America 110 1,500 Australia 1,130 5,210 12,750 25,500 Asia 15,700 12,546 81,817 160,500 Europe 212,124 334,168 552,868 691,943 North America 117,656 318,838 516,100 908,584 Worldwide 346,610 670,762 1,163,645 1,788,027 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 CarsharingMembers Worldwide & Regional Membership (2006-2012)
    • Worldwide Carsharing Then and Now
    • Worldwide Carsharing Then and Now
    • 13 6065 255 440 1,080608 810 4,315 6,155 7,491 10,833 16,779 20,464 3,337 7,505 10,420 15,795 11,501 19,403 31,967 43,554 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 2006 2008 2010 2012 Vehicles Worldwide & Regional Fleets (2006-2012) South America Australia Asia Europe North America Worldwide
    • 2012 Worldwide Census Members Vehicles Ratio Asia 160,500 6,155 26.1 Australia 25,500 1,080 23.6 Europe 691,943 20,464 33.8 North America 908,584 15,795 57.5 South America 1,500 60 25.0 Worldwide 1,788,027 43,554 41.1
    • 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (JAN) Mexico 620 Canada 3,909 7,007 10,001 11,932 15,663 26,878 39,664 53,916 67,526 78,856 101,502 141,351 United States 12,098 25,640 52,347 61,658 102,993 184,292 279,234 323,681 448,574 560,572 806,332 891,593 North America 16,007 32,647 62,348 73,590 118,656 211,170 318,898 377,597 516,100 639,428 907,834 1,033,5 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 MEMBERS North American Member Growth Mexico Canada United States North America
    • 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (Jan) Mexico 40 Canada 231 397 521 599 779 1,388 1,667 2,046 2,285 2,605 3,143 3,432 United States 455 696 907 1,192 2,561 5,104 5,840 7,722 8,120 10,019 12,634 12,131 North America 686 1,093 1,428 1,791 3,340 6,492 7,507 9,768 10,405 12,624 15,777 15,603 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 VEHICLES North American Vehicle Growth Mexico Canada United States North America
    • North American Carsharing Statistics • 46 North American operators as of January 2013 U.S. 25 Canada 20 Mexico 1
    • North American Carsharing Statistics • Over 1 million members (excludes PVS/p2p members) – Almost 900,000 in the U.S. (up 24% from Jan 2012) – Over 140,000 in Canada (up 53% from Jan 2012) – 620 in Mexico as of January 2013 U.S. 891,593 Canada 141,351 Mexico 620
    • North American Carsharing Statistics • Over 15,000 vehicles (excludes PVS/p2p vehicles) – Over 12,000 in the U.S. (up 24% from Jan 2012) – Almost 3,500 in Canada (up 36% from Jan 2012) – 40 in Mexico as of January 2013 U.S. 12,131 Canada 3,432 Mexico 40
    • North American Carsharing Statistics • Member-vehicle ratio – 73:1 in the U.S. (up 0.4% from Jan 2012) – 41:1 in Canada (up 13% from Jan 2012) – 16:1 in Mexico – 66:1 overall (up 0.8% from Jan 2012) • Non-profit vs. for-profit operations – Majority of operators are non-profit – U.S.: 48% of operators for-profit, 96% of membership, 93% of vehicles – Canada: 40% of operators for-profit, 92% of membership, 89% of vehicles as of January 2013
    • Trends & Developments • Continued membership growth in carsharing • Mergers and acquisitions • Ongoing growth/expansion of multi-national operators, traditional car rental providers, automaker sponsored programs into carsharing • Notable developments in shared-use mobility space (e.g., “classic” innovations, P2P, one-way, dynamic ridesharing & transportation networking companies) • Confusion about definitions, as well as data attributions
    • 2008 N. American Carsharing Survey • Survey implemented from Sept. to Nov. 2008 • ~9,500 completed surveys; analysis based on 6,281 hhds • Completion rate ~80% • Online survey challenging • Took between 10 to 15 minutes for most respondents to complete Martin, Shaheen, Lidicker, 2010
    • Participating Organizations American - City Carshare - CityWheels - Community Car - Community Carshare of Bellingham - Igo - PhillyCarShare - Zipcar Canadian - Autoshare - Communauto - Co-operative Auto Network - VrtuCar - Zipcar
    • N.A. Vehicle Holdings: Key Findings • Between 9 to 13 vehicles removed, including postponed purchase • 4 to 6 vehicles/carsharing vehicle sold due to carsharing • Most shift due to 1 car households becoming carless • Second largest shift, 2 car households become 1 car households • 25% sell a vehicle • 25% postpone vehicle purchase Martin, Shaheen, Lidicker, 2010
    • CO2 & Carsharing: Key Findings Net effect: observed reduction in CO2 emissions • .75 mt/respondent U.S. • .22 mt/respondent CA • Average .58 mt/respondent (27% observed and 43% full impact) Martin, Shaheen, Lidicker, 2010
    • GHG Emission Impacts of Carsharing in North America transweb.sjsu.edu/project/0911.html
    • Acquisitions in 2013 • Jan 2013: Avis Budget Group acquired Zipcar • Avis-Europe first large-scale rental company to launch carsharing: CARvenience, UK, 2001 • Later eclipsed by other rental companies until Zipcar acquisition • May 2013: Enterprise Holdings acquired IGO CarSharing • Enterprise previously acquired PhillyCarShare in 2011, Mint Cars On-Demand in 2012 • May 2013: PVS operator RelayRides acquired Wheelz • Rental car companies now comprise majority of carsharing membership and vehicle fleet • 79% of membership; 63% of vehicle fleet • 2012: only 17% of membership and 13% of fleet • Due to acquisition of Zipcar by Avis in 2013
    • Mergers & Acquisitions 2001: Flexcar acquires CarSharing Portland 2007: Zipcar and Flexcar merge 2011: Enterprise acquires Philly CarShare 2012: Enterprise acquires Mint Cars On- Demand Jan 2013: Avis acquires Zipcar May 2013: Enterprise acquires IGO CarSharing
    • Comparison with Rental Car Companies Company U.S. Cars in Service (2012) 2012 Revenue Est. (in millions of USD) Enterprise Holdings 941,064 $11,500 Hertz 366,000 $4,600 Avis Budget Group 300,000 $4,510 Dollar Thrifty AG 122,000 $1,563 Zipcar 8,800 $205 Source: Auto Rental News • Zipcar vs. 4 largest rental car companies: – 0.5% of top 4 rental car fleets – less than 3% of Avis’s 2012 fleet size
    • Impacts of Carsharing on Rental Car Industry • Continued blurring between clear definitions and business models of “carsharing” and “car rental” • Implementation of pre-qualified car rental users and virtual storefronts for unattended and increased access • Enhances customer experience and flexibility, increases profit margin • Uniform age for insurance of carsharing and rental cars • Possible reduction of minimum age, with add’l insurance costs through monthly fee or higher rate • Experimentation in insurance models • Pay-as-you-drive (usage-based) insurance
    • Impact of Carsharing on Rental Car Industry (cont’d) • New cars factory-equipped with carsharing telematics • BMW/DriveNow, Daimler/car2go, GM OnStar/ RelayRides • Telematics across rental car/carsharing fleets • Flexibility to move vehicles with changing demand • Connected and autonomous vehicle technology • Improved vehicle operations, ecodriving, ecorouting • Self-parking, self-recharging
    • Industry Innovations • Apr 2013: Communauto offers members GHG emission offsets – Partnered with Planetair and CO2 Environnement • Jan 2013: City CarShare expands wheelchair accessible carsharing • Nov 2011: IGO CarSharing installs 18 solar- powered charging stations
    • • Point-to-point carsharing, free-floating carsharing • Allows member to return vehicle to a different location from where they started (within operating area) • Advanced technology used to facilitate one-way trips and fleet balancing One-Way Carsharing
    • • June 2012: BMW launched DriveNow in San Francisco • Sept 2012: Communauto began one-way operations in Paris • 2012-2013: Daimler AG expands across Western Europe and North America Recent Developments in One-Way
    • One-Way Key Statistics • Operations in 9 countries – Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, UK, U.S. • 5 companies in 11 U.S. cities, 4 Canadian cities, 1 Mexican city – Austin, Denver, Hoboken, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Washington D.C. – Calgary, Montréal (pilot), Toronto, Vancouver – Mexico City • Bolloré Group (Autolib’) to launch in Indianapolis in 2014 • One-way represents 12% of North American carsharing membership and 18% of fleet (as of Jan 2013)
    • One-Way EV Carsharing Study • Document economic, travel, and environmental impacts of electric vehicle (EV) carsharing fleet; pricing impacts on operational efficiency in San Diego (2-year study) • Interview and survey car2go users on travel patterns, modal shifts, vehicle ownership, perceptions of one-way EV carsharing, demographics • Partners (FHWA funding): – Daimler car2go – San Diego Association of Governments – City of San Diego – Caltrans – UC Berkeley TSRC • Possible addition of other partners/cities
    • • Personal vehicle sharing (PVS) models first seen in North America in 2001, eGOCarShare, RentMyCar • May 2013: RelayRides acquired Wheelz • North American PVS Operators (as of Sept. 2013): • 10 operating (9 fully-active, 1 in pilot phase) • 3 planned • 7 defunct • 38 worldwide • 33 fully-active • 5 in pilot phase Short-term access to privately-owned vehicles Personal Vehicle Sharing
    • • Individuals sub-lease or subscribe to vehicle owned by a third party Fractional Ownership • Individuals access vehicles by joining an organization that maintains its own fleet of vehicles, but also includes private autos, throughout a network of locations Hybrid P2P-Traditional Carsharing Model • Employs privately-owned vehicles made temporarily available for shared use by individual or members of P2P company P2P Carsharing • Enables direct exchanges between individuals via Internet P2P Marketplace 4 Types of Personal Vehicle Sharing
    • • Gain early understanding of the emerging industry • Evaluate impacts to user travel patterns • Highlight opportunities for policy adjustments • Interviews with 5 North American P2P operators, government agencies, insurance experts, and other stakeholders • Online survey of PVS members • University of California Transportation Center funding source • Study wrap-up and report: January 2014 PVS Study
    • Autonomous Vehicles • Autonomous vehicles represent a transformative technology in the transportation industry • Carsharing/Autonomous Vehicle Synergies • Platform for introducing autonomous vehicle technologies, building consumer demand/appeal/confidence (e.g., BMW’s DriveNow electric vehicles) • Autonomous vehicle sharing potentially new model for some carsharing companies (e.g., taxi-like services) • P2P autonomous vehicle sharing potentially lowers ownership costs of expensive, technologically-advanced vehicles
    • GoGet - Australia • Testing a base Yaris with sensors (3 radar, camera) • Collecting data to model “real” human behavior and usage scenarios (trip data) • Research partner: University of New South Wales • Understand possible usage patterns and demand in the longer term and how to best optimize the vehicle in carsharing • Start with partially autonomous vehicle (human in control) • Goal: First fleet buyer in Australia of fully autonomous vehicles (5 years)
    • • 3-year electric vehicle (EV) carsharing pilot program launched 9/11/13 • Open to employees and residents of Hacienda Business Park, Pleasanton, CA • 30 Scion iQ EVs, range of 40 miles • 15 locations with charging stations, 2 EVs at each location • Partners: City CarShare, Toyota, UC Berkeley TSRC
    • Electric Bikesharing & Carsharing • 4-year pilot to launch in Berkeley and San Francisco, CA in Spring 2014 • Growing to 90 e-bikes at 25+ locations • 22 e-bikes with bike trailer or cargo bike • Evaluate e-bike sharing cost effectiveness and impacts on travel patterns and emission reductions • FHWA grant funding • Partners: City CarShare, UC Berkeley TSRC, SFMTA, Caltrans
    • Risk & Insurance Analysis • Classic carsharing reduces overall driving • Study examines implications of multiple users of a single vehicle on insurance, risk, and actuarial analysis • Understanding risk key to facilitating fair and reasonable policies, as well as growing shared-use mobility services • Establish and host a database of vehicle use and accidents of shared-use systems • Data on vehicle activity, vehicle accidents, and accident costs experienced by shared-use systems (e.g., crashes/mile & vehicle) • Goal: new insurance products and lower premiums
    • Key Questions to Consider • As carsharing matures, how will it scale into less dense areas? • What role will entrants and business models play in its expansion (e.g., non-profit vs. profit)? • How will carsharing be branded to be successful? In which markets will it be successful? • What social and environmental impacts can be expected? • How should public policy play a role in its expansion? • What innovative insurance models could be developed to support shared use? • What type of service integration would best support shared vehicles the sharing economy?
    • • October 10-11, 2013 in San Francisco • Panel discussions and presentations by the world’s experts on carsharing, one-way carsharing, p2p carsharing, and other aspects of the sharing economy • Dialogue among mobility providers, policymakers, governmental agencies, non- profits, affiliated industries, technologists, academics, media, and stakeholders • More information at www.sharedusesummit.org • Please join us! • Contact me for a registration discount
    • Acknowledgements • North American carsharing organizations • Adam Cohen, Dr. Elliot Martin, Nelson Chan, TSRC, UC Berkeley • Dave Brook, Consultant • Ryan Johnson, Enterprise CarShare
    • www.tsrc.berkeley.edu