PRESENTATIONConcession to Construction: The BrazilianAirports StoryAirport Infra Expo ConferenceApril 25 2012
Brazil – Economic Backdrop         Brazil Rising            World’s 5th largest economy – the largest in South America an...
Rapid Rise in Brazilian Air Traffic Volumes           6.4% CAGR passenger            growth over last 10            years...
Airports Under Pressure World Cup and Olympics          “ Most of Brazil’s airports are already            operating above...
Brazilian Airport System                                         Over 2,500 airports including                           ...
Two of the Three Airports are in the Sao Paulo RegionJCI646                                        6                      ...
Overview – Three Selected Airports           Guarulhos, GRU            – About 30 million passengers in 2011             ...
Developing New Development Programs           Frequent stakeholder consultations and workshops permit quick            de...
Developing New Development Programs           Develop Planning Scenarios – but quickly move to solutions that            ...
Current Infrastructure                      GRU                               VCP                                     BSB ...
Guarulhos During Peak                 Source: http://advisoranalyst.com/glablog/wp-content/uploads/HLIC/0c5bc15f03b7be9cdc...
Guarulhos During Peak                 Source: http://infosurhoy.com/cocoon/saii/images/2011/01/06/photo3A.jpgJCI646       ...
Guarulhos During Peak                 Source: http://planetark.org/images/wefull/53827.jpgJCI646                          ...
Capex Based on Future Infrastructure                      GRU                              VCP                            ...
Facility Planning Approach         Balancing Investment with Service Levels            Capacity is a function of LoS     ...
Floor Area per Peak Hour Pax                                                          Floor Area per Design Peak Hour Pass...
Floor Area per Million Annual Passenger                                                                                   ...
Guarulhos – Current SituationJCI646                                         18                                            ...
Guarulhos – Expected FutureJCI646                                       19                                            AAAE...
Example of Plan – ViracoposJCI646                                       20                                            AAAE...
Viracopos – Current SituationJCI646                                         21                                            ...
Viracopos – Expected FutureJCI646                                       22                                            AAAE...
Example of Plan – BrasiliaJCI646                                      23                                           AAAE/Le...
Brasilia – Current SituationJCI646                                        24                                             A...
Brasilia – Expected FutureJCI646                                      25                                           AAAE/Le...
Auction and Contract Highlights                      Auction Rules                                   Contract Highlights  ...
Final Auction ResultsJCI646                                 27                                      AAAE/LeighFisher Airpo...
Auction Results – Winning Consortiums and Bid Values                                         Winning consortium           ...
Transition PlanJCI646                           29                                AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization C...
Key Issues – Government and Bidders           Start the process as early as possible           Bring decision makers int...
Thank you!
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

2012_2º Seminário_MICHAEL TUBRIDY - Leigh Fisher

1,091 views

Published on

Eventos simultâneos organizados pela Sator Eventos, a 2a Airport Infra Expo, feira de infraestrutura aeroportuária, o 1o Workshop de Varejo Aeroportuário Brasileiro e o 2o Seminário Internacional de Infraestrutura Aeroportuária da America Latina, ocorreram entre os dias 24 e 26 no Transamérica Expo Center, em São Paulo, e contaram com a presença de diversas autoridades e empresas do setor.

Published in: Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,091
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
9
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

2012_2º Seminário_MICHAEL TUBRIDY - Leigh Fisher

  1. 1. PRESENTATIONConcession to Construction: The BrazilianAirports StoryAirport Infra Expo ConferenceApril 25 2012
  2. 2. Brazil – Economic Backdrop Brazil Rising  World’s 5th largest economy – the largest in South America and the second largest in the Western Hemisphere  Rapid economic growth projected – IMF estimates 4.2% GDP growth for 2013 to 2016  200M population; 90M middle class; 40M join middle class since 2003  In November 2011, S&P raised Brazil’s long-term sovereign debt rating to triple-B (BBB) with stable outlook REAL GDP GROWTH 2009 2010 2011* 2012* 2013-2016* Brazil -0.65% 7.5% 3.8% 3.7% 4.2% Latin America -1.8% 6.1% 4.5% 4.0% 4.0% Advanced Economies -3.8% 3.1% 1.7% 2.0% 2.4% Note: * indicate IMF staff estimates. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2011JCI646 2 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  3. 3. Rapid Rise in Brazilian Air Traffic Volumes  6.4% CAGR passenger growth over last 10 years  Significant pressure on the aviation system – airlines, airports, air traffic control  Demand now exceeds capacity at many airports  Delays and poor service levels result 3JCI646 3 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  4. 4. Airports Under Pressure World Cup and Olympics “ Most of Brazil’s airports are already operating above their nominal capacity. Baggage handling and check-in are slow; delays and cancellations common…hectic growth in local demand would still leave most airports overcrowded – even without 1 million football fans” – Economist, May 2011 4JCI646 4 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  5. 5. Brazilian Airport System  Over 2,500 airports including landing fields  Infraero, 100% Brazil government owned airport operating company, operates 66 airports handling 97% of passenger traffic in 2011  Thus far, all actions on the privatization relates to Infraero operated airports (except Natal)JCI646 5 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  6. 6. Two of the Three Airports are in the Sao Paulo RegionJCI646 6 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  7. 7. Overview – Three Selected Airports  Guarulhos, GRU – About 30 million passengers in 2011 Together, they represent a – Busiest passenger airport in Latin America substantial share of Brazil’s – 2nd busiest cargo airport in Latin America – Brazil’s main international gateway total aviation activity:  Viracopos, VCP  30% of passenger traffic – 7.5 million passengers in 2011  57% of cargo volume – Busiest international cargo airport in Brazil  19% of aircraft movements – Rapid growth in low cost airline service (Azul) – About 95 km from central Sao Paulo – Expected to handle significant “overflow” from GRU  Brasília, BSB – 15.4 million passengers in 2011 – 5th busiest passenger airport in Latin America – Only airport serving the Brazil’s capital city – Well placed geographically to serve as a connecting hub for passenger traffic – 40% connecting rate in 2011JCI646 7 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  8. 8. Developing New Development Programs  Frequent stakeholder consultations and workshops permit quick decision making  Clear consensus on traffic forecasts  Analysis of existing conditions and identifying forecast Requirements  Clear expectation on facility levels of service  Benchmarking analysis on facilities as a reality check  Identifying specific constraints – environmental, airspace capacity, land acquisition, etc.JCI646 8 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  9. 9. Developing New Development Programs  Develop Planning Scenarios – but quickly move to solutions that create most flexibility and are affordable  Developing Capex – how to quantify from planning documents - what is in the numbers – costs should be on the basis of private sector construction  Timing and Phasing of Capex – based on demand and affordability – Balanced approach  Close Coordination with Financial AnalystsJCI646 9 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  10. 10. Current Infrastructure GRU VCP BSB  Two parallel runways  Single runway (3,240 m)  Two parallel runways (3,700 m and 3,000 m) (3,200 m and 3,300 m)  Passenger terminal  Passenger terminal building (34,650 m2) with  Passenger terminal building (184,000 m2) 20 gates and parking building (63,000 m2) with with design capacity of positions. 33 aircraft gates and approximately 25 million  Air cargo facility located parking positions. passengers. northwest of the  Numerous commercial  Surface parking lot with passenger terminal properties approximately 3,000 complex  Approximately 1,700 public parking spaces.  Approximately 72 hectares hectares reserved for  Air cargo facilities located of land for future military use. on the west side of the commercial development. airportJCI646 10 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  11. 11. Guarulhos During Peak Source: http://advisoranalyst.com/glablog/wp-content/uploads/HLIC/0c5bc15f03b7be9cdced034f59d5f0d2.jpgJCI646 11 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  12. 12. Guarulhos During Peak Source: http://infosurhoy.com/cocoon/saii/images/2011/01/06/photo3A.jpgJCI646 12 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  13. 13. Guarulhos During Peak Source: http://planetark.org/images/wefull/53827.jpgJCI646 13 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  14. 14. Capex Based on Future Infrastructure GRU VCP BSB  Additional taxiways  Three additional runways  Independent operation of  Additional passenger (one Code F) – 2 the two existing runways. terminal complex (256,000 independent + 2 segregated  Additional taxiways m2) with significant  A new passenger terminal  Additional passenger increase in aircraft parking totaling 450,000 m2 and terminal complex (140,000  Parking structure providing providing 88 contact stands m2) with significant significantly more parking  A new close-in parking increase in aircraft parking spaces structure aprons  Approximately R$ 1.38  Substantially expanded air  Substantial increase in billion until World Cup cargo facilities public parking spaces 2014; R$4.6 billion over the  Approximately R$873 million  Approximately R$626 concession period until the World Cup, 7.8 million until World Cup billion over the concession 2014; 2.2 billion over the period concession periodJCI646 14 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  15. 15. Facility Planning Approach Balancing Investment with Service Levels  Capacity is a function of LoS – A facility can operate at varying degrees of congestion and delay depending on level of service intended  Different operators and airports have different LoS standards – Even within airports there is significant service differentiation IATA LoS C is assumed IATA - Levels of Service (LoS) Definitions Level of Service State (LoS) Flows Delays Comfort A - Excellent Free None Excellent B - High Stable Very Few High C - Good Stable Acceptable Good D - Adequate Unstable Passable Adequate E - Inadequate Unstable Unacceptable Inadequate F - Unacceptable System breakdown UnacceptableJCI646 15 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  16. 16. Floor Area per Peak Hour Pax Floor Area per Design Peak Hour Passengers 90 Median 80 Benchmark airport Brazilian airport 70 60 Square Meters 50 per PHP 40 30 20 10 0 PQC SAT BSB CGH VCP CWB HKG GRU LHR BKK SIN KUL DEL PEK ICN AirportJCI646 16 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  17. 17. Floor Area per Million Annual Passenger Floor Area per Million Annual Passengers 25,000 Median Benchmark airport Brazilian airport 20,000 Square Meters per Passengers Enplaned 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 BSB CGH VCP BOG CWB SAT LIM GRU SCL PQC BKK LHR HKG CCS DEL ICN SIN KUL PEK AirportJCI646 17 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  18. 18. Guarulhos – Current SituationJCI646 18 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  19. 19. Guarulhos – Expected FutureJCI646 19 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  20. 20. Example of Plan – ViracoposJCI646 20 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  21. 21. Viracopos – Current SituationJCI646 21 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  22. 22. Viracopos – Expected FutureJCI646 22 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  23. 23. Example of Plan – BrasiliaJCI646 23 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  24. 24. Brasilia – Current SituationJCI646 24 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  25. 25. Brasilia – Expected FutureJCI646 25 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  26. 26. Auction and Contract Highlights Auction Rules Contract Highlights 1. Auctions for three airports were held  Infraero, the current airport simultaneously. operator, would hold a 49% stake. 2. Bidders could bid for one, two, or  Payments: three airports but could not be ̶ Fixed Fee – the Auction awarded more than one. Price, divided evenly by the 3. Bids were in the form of a nominal concession term and paid annually sum of equal payments over the ̶ Annual Percentage Fee based on concession life. gross revenue – 10% for GRU, 5% 4. The three highest bids plus any others for VCP, 2% for BSB. within 90% of the highest bid would  The winner would be required to make be considered “active”. significant investments in capital 5. Selection based on auction payment improvements, with values estimated to with technical qualifications and be R$ 2.3 billion for GRU, R$8.7 billion business plan reviewed but not part for VCP and R$2.8 billion for BSB. of a scoring system.JCI646 26 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  27. 27. Final Auction ResultsJCI646 27 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  28. 28. Auction Results – Winning Consortiums and Bid Values Winning consortium Winning bid São Paulo - Guarulhos Invepar consortium R$ 16,213 million  Brazilian pension fund Invepar and Airports Company of South Africa Viracopos - Campinas Triunfo/UTC/Egis Consortium R$ 3,821 million Brasília Inframérica Aeroportos R$ 4,501 million  Corporacion America and Engevix EnghenariaJCI646 28 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  29. 29. Transition PlanJCI646 29 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  30. 30. Key Issues – Government and Bidders  Start the process as early as possible  Bring decision makers into the process as early as possible  Develop forecasts – gain consensus and move on!  Ensure that local knowledge is built into the team – environmental, cost estimating experts  Identify the unique challenges inherent in adding capacity quickly – ie. World Cup capex requirements, addressing immediate term operational improvements, regulatory requirements  Create an internal audit team of experts – for sole purpose of peer review  Integrate traffic, facilities and financial analysis as quickly as possible  Information provide in documents should be detailed to inform the process  Assume changes will occur during the process and build in a contingency planJCI646 30 AAAE/LeighFisher Airport Privatization Conference 2012
  31. 31. Thank you!

×