AIRPORTS Forecasting"The easiest way to predict the future is to invent it."Immanuel Kant - German PhilosopherAirport Forecasting1Forecasts of airport aviation activity have become an integral part of Immanuel Kanttransportation planning. Most airport-specific forecasts are prepared on behalfof airport sponsors and state or regional agencies. The type and method of forecastingcan depend importantly on the purpose for which the forecast is being made.The primary statistical methods used in airport aviation activity forecasting includemarket share analysis, econometric modeling, and time series modeling. Thesemethods can be used to create forecasts of future airport activity over time. Simulationmodels are a separate method of analysis used to provide snapshot estimates of trafficflows across a network or through an airport.The main measuring performance factors for airports are traffic passengers, aircraftmovements and freight. And consequently these factors are breakdown to sublevels interm of departures, arrivals and transit activities.Forecasting MethodsThe majority of airport and regional and state aviation activity studies use fairlysimple methods to produce forecasts, and address forecast uncertainty only ininformal and nonsystematic ways. Figure ( 1 ). Summary of RecommendedForecasting Methods Historical Data Availability Purpose of Increasing Data Requirements Activity Forecast Stable Relationship with: Stable Trend External Forecasts Causal Variables Time series trend Short-Term Operational extrapolation, or Planning: Annual smoothing/Box-Jenkins Market Share Forecasting Econometric Modeling Budgeting if complex time dependencies Identify Long-Term Capacity Needs: Market share Financial Planning to forecasting or Market Share Forecasting Econometric Modeling Support Facility econometric modeling Expansion Examine Alternative Environment: Compare Alternative Econometric Modeling Policies Obtain High-Fidelity Estimates of of Activity Purpose Travel Time and DelaysForecast Simulation Modeling (Aircraft or Passengers) Figure ( 1 ). Recommended Forecasting Methods1 Reference: Aviation Forecasting – FAA / Mohammed Salem Awad – Research Scholar
AIRPORTS Forecasting YEMEN Airports: SANAAAirport Airports Forecasting: Airport forecasting is an important issue in Aviation industry. It becomes an integral parts of transportation planning. It sets targets and goals for the airports, either for long term or medium term planning. The primary statistical methods used in airport aviation activity forecasting are market share approach, econometric modeling, and time series modeling. Model Used: Based on a historical data of the airports, (3 years on monthly bases) the mathematical model is developed where its fairness and goodness of fit can be defined by two important factors: R2 (Coeff. Of Determination) > 80% S. T (Signal Tracking) ..(- 4 S.T. 4) Airport Performances: There are many factors that may measure the airport performance, mainly: 1) Number of Passengers. 2) Aircraft Movement and 3) Freight SANAA Airport: Sanaa International Airport or El Rahaba Airport (Sanaa International) (IATA: SAH, ICAO: OYSN) is an international airport located in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen. Recently Yemen passes in a transition phase, as results a democracy. This situation effects on 2011 data base. So the basic analysis addressing 2008, 2009, and 2010. And the forecasted period are 2011 and 2012. Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 2,048,088 Pax Peak Periods: Jul =210,230 Aug =206,205 Annual Growth : 3 % The Model is good as R = 78% Aircraft Movement Forecasting 2012 = 39,606 Peak Periods: Jul =3540 Aug =3361 Annual Growth : 16%. The Model is fairly fitted as R = 94% And reflects the recent data Freights &Mails Forecasting 2012 = 23493 Tone. Peak Periods: May =2205 Tone. Annual Growth: 2.4%. The Model reflects a lot of discrepancies as R = 38% while its signal tracking = -3.02, so results should take in caution.
AIRPORTS Forecasting ARABIC Airports Dubai International Airport: (IATA: DXB, ICAO: OMDB) is an international airport serving Dubai. It is a major aviation hub in the Middle East, and is the main airport of Emirates States. In 2011 DXB handled a record 50.98 million in passenger traffic, a 8% increase over the 2010 fiscal year. This made it the 13th busiest airport in the world by passenger traffic and the 4th busiest airport in the world by international passenger traffic. Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 56,277,296 Pax Peak Periods: Jul =5116686 Aug = 5109256 Annual Growth : 10.5 % The Model is fairly good as R2 = 89 %. Bahrain International Airport: (IATA: BAH, ICAO: OBBI) is an international airport located in Muharraq, an island on the northern tip of Bahrain, about 7 km (4.3 mi) northeast of the capital Manama. It is the primary hub for Gulf Air and Bahrain Air. The airport has a three star rating from Skytraxs airport grading exercise. In 2010, Bahrain Airport was named as the winner of the Best Airport in the Middle East Award at the Skytrax 2010 World Airport Awards. Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 9,287,978 Pax Peak Periods: Jul = 903722 Aug = 912338 Annual Growth : 1.3 % The Model is fair as R2 = 71 %. Sharjah International Airport (IATA: SHJ, ICAO: OMSJ) is located in Sharjah, United Arab Emirates. Sharjah Airport is the second largest Middle East Airfreight Hub in terms of cargo tonnage, according to official 2009 statistics from Airports Council International. Ground services company, Sharjah Aviation Services, handled 421,398 tonnes in 2009 - a 16.1% increase year on year. Sharjah International Airport is home base of the low-cost carrier Air Arabia. Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 6,863,141 Pax Peak Periods: Jul = 903722 Aug = 912338 Annual Growth: 4.9 % The Model is fair fitted as R2 = 89 %.