Risk Analysis in Occupational Health Setting

Dr. Ahmed-Refat AG Refat www.Slideshare.net/AhmedRefat Risk Management System, 2012

Risk Management System
In Occupational Health Setting

‫إدارة املخاطر‬
‫يف جمال الصحة املهنية‬

Dr. Ahmed-Refat AG Refat
Prof. Occupational Medicine
Tibsah University, KSA
2012
1


Basic Concepts and Definitions

1- Hazard and Risk

Hazard

 A source of potential harm
 Anything that has the potential to
cause harm
 A factor or exposure that may
adversely affect health.
Risk

Risk = The probability that an adverse event will
occur

Risk = The chance of something happening that
will have an impact on objectives.

Risk was measured in terms of
Consequences and the Likelihood

2


2 - Risk Management System " RMS"
 RMS is an ongoing process of identifying,
quantifying and ranking risks and their
associated losses, and developing cost
effective management strategies to
eliminate or control the risks.

Risk Evaluation = identifying risks, setting
priorities commissioning and reviewing
risk assessment .

Risk Assessment = combination of Risk
identification, risk analysis and risk
evaluation

3


Steps of Risk Management Process

The risk management process consists of a
series of steps that, when undertaken in
sequence, enable continual improvement in
decision-making.

1. Establish the context

2. Identify hazards

3. Analyse risks that may result because of the
hazard

4. Evaluate the risks

5. Treat the risks

6. Review and Monitor the risk

4


5


Step 1 Establish the context

The first step in managing risk is to gather
background information which relates to the
organization as a whole as well as the particular risk
management study. This establishes the context
within which OHS risks are managed.

6


Step 2 Hazard Identification

Risk cannot be managed unless it is first
identified.
The aim of risk identification is to identify
possible risks that may affect, either negatively
or positively, the objectives of the organization
and the activity under analysis. .

Identifying retrospective risks

Retrospective risks are those that have
previously occurred.

There are many sources of information about
retrospective risk. These include:
• hazard or incident logs or registers
• audit reports
• customer complaints
• accreditation documents and reports

7


• past staff or client surveys
• newspapers or professional media, such as
journals or websites.

Identifying prospective risks

Prospective risks are often harder to identify. These
are things that have not yet happened, but might
happen some time in the future.

Identification should include all risks, whether or not
they are currently being managed.
Methods for identifying prospective risks:
• brainstorming with staff
• researching the economic, political,
legislative and operating environment
• conducting interviews with relevant people
and/or organisations
• undertaking surveys of staff or clients .
• flow charting a process

8


When
 When a job is first undertaken
 When a new piece of equipment is installed
 When new or relevant information regarding health
and safety becomes available from an authoritative
source
 When substantial changes are made to a system of
work
 When there has been an injury to a person
undertaking a job or to a person near where a job is
being performed
 Following an accident that did not result in an injury
or damage

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 When there is evidence to suggest that a current risk
assessment is no longer valid
 When hazardous substances and/or dangerous goods
are introduced into the workplace
 As part of the design and construction of a new
facility
 Prior to conducting an experiment
 As part of developing and designing a new subject,
unit or course outline
 Prior to conducting a field trip

Step 3. Analyse the risks

Risk analysis involves combining the possible
consequences, or impact, of an event, with the
likelihood of that event occurring. The result is a
‘level of risk’. That is:

Risk = consequence x likelihood

11


Elements of risk analysis
The elements of risk analysis are as follows:
1. Identify existing strategies and controls that act to
minimise negative risk and enhance pportunities.
2. Determine the consequences of a negative impact
or an opportunity
3. Determine the likelihood of a negative
consequence or an opportunity.
4. Estimate the level of risk by combining
consequence and likelihood.
5. Consider and identify any uncertainties in the
estimates.

Types of analysis
Three categories or types of analysis can be used to
determine level of risk:
• Qualitative
• Semi-quantitative
• Quantitative.

11


A- Qualitative risk analysis
Qualitative risk analysis is simple and easy to
understand. Disadvantages include the fact that it is
subjective and is based on insight, which can lead
to the forming of bias and can degrade the validity
of the results.
Methods for qualitative risk analysis include:
• brainstorming
• evaluation using multi-disciplinary groups
• specialist and expert judgement
• structured interviews and/or questionnaires
• word picture descriptors and risk categories.

Items in risk analysis

Risk = likelihood x consequence

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Likelihood

13


14


B- Consequences

15


Step 4. Evaluate the risks

Risk evaluation involves comparing the level of risk
found during the analysis process with previously
established risk criteria, and deciding whether these
risks require treatment.

The result of a risk evaluation is a prioritised list of
risks that require further action.

This step is about deciding whether risks are
acceptable or need treatment.
16


Methods of Risk Ranking
1- A qualitative ( subjective ) method : Risk
ranking Matrix.
2- A semi quantitative method by using : Fine
Risk Score Calculator
3- A semi quantitative method by using : Risk
Nomogram

Risk Ranking Matrix

17


18


Risk acceptance

Low or tolerable risks may be accepted.
‘Acceptable’ means the business chooses to
‘accept’ that the risk exists, either because the risk
is at a low level and the cost of treating the risk will
outweigh the benefit, or there is no reasonable
treatment that can be implemented. This is also
known as ALARP (as low as reasonably practicable).

A risk may be accepted for the following reasons:
• The cost of treatment far exceeds the benefit, so
that acceptance is the only option (applies
particularly to lower ranked risks)
• The level of the risk is so low that specific
treatment is not appropriate with available
resources
• The opportunities presented outweigh the threats
to such a degree that the risk is justified
• The risk is such that there is no treatment
available, for example the risk that the business may
suffer storm damage.

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Other Methods of Risk Ranking

2- A semi quantitative method by using :
Fine Risk Score Calculator

21


3- A semi quantitative: Risk Nomogram

Step 5. Treat and control the risks

Risk treatment involves identifying options for
treating or controlling risk, in order to either reduce
or eliminate negative consequences, or to reduce
the likelihood of an adverse occurrence. Risk
treatment should also aim to enhance positive
outcomes.

It is often either not possible or cost-effective to
implement all treatment strategies.

21


Hierarchy of control

22


Options for risk treatment

Avoid the risk

One method of dealing with risk is to avoid the risk
by not proceeding with the activity likely to generate
the risk. Risk avoidance should only occur when
control measures do not exist or do not reduce the
risk to an acceptable level.

Change the likelihood of the occurrence

This option enhances the likelihood of beneficial
outcomes and reduces the possibility of loss.

Change the consequences

This will increase the size of gains and reduce the
size of losses. This may include business continuity
plans, and emergency and contingency plans.

23


Share the risk

Part or most of a risk may be transferred to another
party so that they share responsibility.
Mechanisms for risk transfer include contracts,
insurance, partnerships and business alliances.

Retain the risk

After risks have been reduced or transferred,
residual risk may be retained if it is at an acceptable
level.

Step 6- Monitor and review

Monitor and review is an essential and integral step
in the risk management process.
Risks need to be monitored periodically to ensure
changing circumstances do not alter the risk
priorities. Very few risks will remain static, therefore
the risk management process needs to be regularly
repeated, so that new risks are captured in the
process and effectively managed.

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Risk Analysis in Occupational Health Setting

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